Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2232 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #44,621
  • Edited 4:07am Jan 29, 2014 3:08am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting TraderJoe
{quote} Hi fti, I disagree the premise that TA is not a viable trading method for extreme successful trading.
Noted.

Didn't say TA doesn't work. In fact underlying technique in MO is TA.
Said that need be careful how one branches out in the artform and the wrong mindset in viewing the skillset.
I have nothing against TA. In fact, i think is only way to time trades. but there fallacy in its usesage by some esp newbies who are self trained.
keyword is predict.
And i not have anything against self training. but is good get a pro prespective to the training.
anyway there many fallacys in trading mindset, technical/fundementally or otherwise.
This thread only deal with the technical aspect as is my turf. But there's a little cross dressing on thread of other techniques as and when the issues are highlighted.

i know thread is very long. but if you have time read a little.

Oh by the way.
Don't judge a book by its cover.
if you saw me now , your indicator probably think i am a farmer.
come think of it, we all farmers trying build our own castles.

regards
  • #44,622
  • Edited 5:12am Jan 29, 2014 4:44am | Edited 5:12am
interesting charts
euro is upward flaging.
cable is sitting on her tops.
aud is sitting on her bottoms
chf is flagging downwards

crosses are sitting on the fences.

is interesting how markets expecting fomc disappoint about the QE thingy.
are they building expectations or are they squaring for fomc guidance?

yen, seems underpinned for now. in 3 yen range.

turkey is double digit rates. nice for short tenure parking.
At least will not be flight of capitals for now.

everyones eyeing us calvary. Whats their payload? money bags?

Inserted Video


my jaws open waiting money blowing in the sky.
Heli retiring, need see how the send off.
  • #44,623
  • Edited 5:47am Jan 29, 2014 5:18am | Edited 5:47am
Now the serious question.

IF they gave the 10 yard token.
How would market respond?
if i see correct , that is the expectation now.

the usd bulls got dampen because of bad economic figs.
are they coming back? if they do how forcefully?


wow this like sitting on a roulette wheel.
red or black?
or is it going be green?
house wins.
all bets loser. next game.

i get funny feeling if no big usd catastropy then usd bulls may return,
Equities already prompting and is too far from october allow anyone get negative thoughts.
There no reasons expect bad , no bad reports at all, as far as we know.
have we scraped bottom yet?

I not trying think directional bias. mostly trying fig how forceful to expect in the different terrains.
U should wear jungle boots or jogging shoes? That is the question.

what experts expect?
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=468752
  • #44,624
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:54am Jan 29, 2014 5:54am
seems every one expecting 10 yard token.

so seems will be no facts play.
all sentiments.

sentiments is hard to pin down. human factor.
Is either they allow heli fly away peacefully, otherwise shoe throwing peeps may make fiasco.

me better fly down to dining table like good boy or get ear twisting CNY.

Good luck my friends.

regards
  • #44,625
  • Jan 29, 2014 6:33am Jan 29, 2014 6:33am
Quoting frz
{quote} yes, i got it.. look for historical volatility and think risk as basis. thanks chief. regards.
Hi frz,

thanks for raising the options greeks topic. I am also trying to figure out the mechanics behind it. Could you please explain what you meant by risk as basis?

Thank you.

Best Regards
Jacque
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,626
  • Jan 29, 2014 6:54am Jan 29, 2014 6:54am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Hi frz, thanks for raising the options greeks topic. I am also trying to figure out the mechanics behind it. Could you please explain what you meant by risk as basis? Thank you. Best Regards Jacque
Hi jacque,

i meant i try think risk from tolerance pespective.
options is another tool for managing risk.
before we take position, we should quantifying the risk.
greek letter is unit risk which we try to manage.
(delta -- directional risk, gamma -- curvature risk, vega -- volatility risk, theta -- time risk, rho -- interest rate risk)
i'm new in options subject.. so, that is what i could figure out so far.


here i'm quoting what fti already said:
"lets see if you can understand this.
to manage risk, the risk must be quantifyable.
unless able to read the risk, how is one to manage it with appropriate strategies."


kindest regards
steady as she goes
  • #44,627
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:08am Jan 29, 2014 7:08am
Quoting fti
Now the serious question. IF they gave the 10 yard token. How would market respond? if i see correct , that is the expectation now. the usd bulls got dampen because of bad economic figs. are they coming back? if they do how forcefully? wow this like sitting on a roulette wheel. red or black? or is it going be green? house wins. all bets loser. next game. i get funny feeling if no big usd catastropy then usd bulls may return, Equities already prompting and is too far from october allow anyone get negative thoughts. There no reasons expect bad , no...

Hi fti, may I enquire with you on what you meant by "Equities already prompting and is too far from october allow anyone get negative thoughts"

My understanding is that if fed gave 10 yard token - meaning they the feds taper, usd bull returns because tapering means fed stops depreciating usd and is good for currency but this is bad for stock mkt. the S&P500 which is attached below shows that it is currently at declining from the high - looks like the sell may have started in anticipation of tapers. Thus, I thought that "prompting" means prompting to taper, but then "too far from october and negative thoughts" kind of mean it will continue upwards and this will mean no taper?? Could you elaborate please. Thank you

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 22 KB
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,628
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:12am Jan 29, 2014 7:12am
Quoting frz
{quote} Hi jacque, i meant i try think risk from tolerance pespective. options is another tool for managing risk. before we take position, we should quantifying the risk. greek letter is unit risk which we try to manage. (delta -- directional risk, gamma -- curvature risk, vega -- volatility risk, theta -- time risk, rho -- interest rate risk) i'm new in options subject.. so, that is what i could figure out so far. here i'm quoting what fti already said: "lets see if you can understand this. to manage risk, the risk must be quantifyable. unless...
Hey frz, thank you for your reply, this is clearer to me now and I will take time to review what you have advised
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,629
  • Edited 8:06am Jan 29, 2014 7:50am | Edited 8:06am
Quoting frz
{quote} Hi jacque, i meant i try think risk from tolerance pespective. options is another tool for managing risk. before we take position, we should quantifying the risk. greek letter is unit risk which we try to manage. (delta -- directional risk, gamma -- curvature risk, vega -- volatility risk, theta -- time risk, rho -- interest rate risk) i'm new in options subject.. so, that is what i could figure out so far. here i'm quoting what fti already said: "lets see if you can understand this. to manage risk, the risk must be quantifyable. unless...
i am sorry but i will not be discussing (broad sword) institutional trading strategies.
This because is beyond retail traders MO.

You see different institutions and different managers have different risk profiles.
if you institutional dealing you must conform to the risk profile of the manager managing you.
If you institutional dealing , they will train you in their style of Mo and their risk profile and styles.
So is beyond scope here of retail traders.

I just mentioned the source of the risk components that if one wanted that is where general direction is.
But i will not present here for anyone institutional strategies.
Hope for your indulgence. Please not ask questions on that issues, is very OT in retail trading thread.


regards
  • #44,630
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:57am Jan 29, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Hi fti, may I enquire with you on what you meant by "Equities already prompting and is too far from october allow anyone get negative thoughts" My understanding is that if fed gave 10 yard token - meaning they the feds taper, usd bull returns because tapering means fed stops depreciating usd and is good for currency but this is bad for stock mkt. the S&P500 which is attached below shows that it is currently at declining from the high - looks like the sell may have started in anticipation of tapers. Thus, I thought that "prompting" means...
Oh is just means that most companies are still in their 1st or 2nd quarter performance ans is in no accuratecy able determine their annual performance just yet.

Many companys financial years closes in the oct zones as year end closing may experience staffing problems.
But is not a rule is just generalise observations.

and anaysis of equities have their sectorial and respective cycles. So we not discussing equities technical analysis here.
I was pro in forex and money not equities. So sorry if i not go there. My only participation in equities is only company stock options which was part of the performnce bonus system of remunerations.

regards
  • #44,631
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:06am Jan 29, 2014 8:06am
Quoting fti
{quote} i am sorry but i will not be discussing (broad sword) institutional trading strategies. This because is beyond retail traders MO. You see different institutions and different managers have different risk profiles. if you institutional dealing you must conform to the risk profile of the manager managing you. If you institutional dealing , they will train you in their style of Mo and their risk profile and styles. So is beyond scope here of retail traders. I just mentioned the source of the risk components that if one wanted that is where...
Apologize for raising the topic, sir
but i'm not institutional dealer, i just layman retail trader with curiosity.
i will not discussing that issues anymore.


best regards
steady as she goes
  • #44,632
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:08am Jan 29, 2014 8:08am
Quoting frz
{quote} Apologize for raising the topic, sir but i'm not institutional dealer, i just layman retail trader with curiosity. i will not discussing that issues anymore. best regards
sorry but i not asking apology.
I just asking that you can understand that its not appropriate for me train institution dealers in retail traders thread. They have their own manager s and risk profiles.


regards
  • #44,633
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:11am Jan 29, 2014 8:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} i am sorry but i will not be discussing (broad sword) institutional trading strategies. This because is beyond retail traders MO. You see different institutions and different managers have different risk profiles. if you institutional dealing you must conform to the risk profile of the manager managing you. If you institutional dealing , they will train you in their style of Mo and their risk profile and styles. So is beyond scope here of retail traders. I just mentioned the source of the risk components that if one wanted that is where...

Hi fti, thanks for your sharing the piece on equity and the option piece. For the option piece, if you recall, I have previously sent you a PM on the greeks after you mentioned I should develop my skills in tandem with my background. In the PM, I enquired with you on whether I should seek the following directions in learning the greeks:

Quote:
To me the most important indicator is price.
The market's sigma, which is the speed of move.
The Vega, which indicade the volitility factor in its trend and the time it consumes in it push.
You can determine all this from bare bar or candle charts.
the other indicator is true average,
with that you can determine if the volitility is out of line for your risk tenure, the other improtant, read, is the market form.
I try to recognise the compounded formatioNs in the bar charts.
Unquote

Was waiting for advise on the PM. However, since now you mentioned that the options greeks is actually referring to broad sword strategy which is institution trading strategy. Thus, was just wondering how to fit in what you just mentioned here vs in the PM. Could you advise please? Thank you
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,634
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:21am Jan 29, 2014 8:21am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} To me the most important indicator is price. The market's sigma, which is the speed of move. The Vega, which indicade the volitility factor in its trend and the time it consumes in it push. You can determine all this from bare bar or candle charts. the other indicator is true average, with that you can determine if the volitility is out of line for your risk tenure, the other improtant, read, is the
market form
compounded formatioNs

oh your focus as retail traders would be that highlighted in red. The rest would be greek to you unless you dealing institution.
For retails the greeks as curvitures and gradients have little meaning to small books.

regards

but if you very into maths, then an indepth understanding of the model itself will help you understand how to use that create your operating parameters.
mostly if you understand how this is shown in the bar charts you already can see, how it relates.
If one cannot understand , then by just watching how it affects book already can prompt you on the awareness of their impacts on book P&L.
  • #44,635
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:30am Jan 29, 2014 8:30am
Quoting fti
{quote} market form compounded formatioNs oh your focus as retail traders would be that highlighted in red. The rest would be greek to you unless you dealing institution. For retails the greeks as curvitures and gradients have little meaning to small books. regards

Thanks for clarifying this. Also, if you could advise on the other PM I have sent you, it would be most helpful
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,636
  • Edited 8:43am Jan 29, 2014 8:32am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Thanks for clarifying this. Also, if you could advise on the other PM I have sent you, it would be most helpful
???? sorry, blood thickens memory not so good.
and i have like exceeding 9999 unread mails.

very handicapped without my PA and secretaries.


regards
  • #44,637
  • Jan 29, 2014 9:02am Jan 29, 2014 9:02am
Quoting fti
{quote} ???? sorry, blood thickens memory not so good. and i have like exceeding 9999 unread mails. very handicapped without my PA and secretaries. regards
Haha, ok i be your secretary today anyway, i think shall just quote the PM here as there maybe something for others to learn. Thanks much.

Quote PM:
Hi fti,

In one of your previous post, Link, you mentioned about capricious and to focus on the word in the video. There is also a chart in the post. Need you guidance on this, there are 2 areas circled on the chart, clearly, they are turning points. How does this tie back to capricious in the video and about the market = women, beautiful curves? Thanks much.

Best Regards
Jacque

Unquote PM
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,638
  • Jan 29, 2014 9:40am Jan 29, 2014 9:40am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Haha, ok i be your secretary today anyway, i think shall just quote the PM here as there maybe something for others to learn. Thanks much. Quote PM: Hi fti, In one of your previous post, Link, you mentioned about capricious and to focus on the word in the video. There is also a chart in the post. Need you guidance on this, there are 2 areas circled on the chart, clearly, they are turning points. How does this tie back to capricious in the video and about the...
is very clear in the video.

sudden change
seems ungoverned.

but is not so.

peeps thinks markets move at random.
is not
reacts to every hit.

responds to traders every move. and orders

in other words is managed.
by who?
market makers.

regards

truth is in world.
everything is owned.
even rubbish.

if is not directly owned, is owned by proxy, aka rights of access.
  • #44,639
  • Jan 29, 2014 9:55am Jan 29, 2014 9:55am
Quoting fti
{quote} is very clear in the video. sudden change seems ungoverned. but is not so. peeps thinks markets move at random. is not reacts to every hit. responds to traders every move. and orders in other words is managed. by who? market makers. regards truth is in world. everything is owned. even rubbish. if is not directly owned, is owned by proxy, aka rights of access.
Thanks fti for advising on this . I think I am seeing something with what ïs just mentioned in your post here and what was mentioned earlier in this thread such as "market makers quotes scuttering", "market markers games/minefield - no paper", "one bank on mars quoting very high to hit customer order while everybody stares at him and trying to guess what happened and then observing his price being quickly bringing price back"

I think if I just try to think of myself as a provision shop owner - in facct, I am like a market maker - market maker in canned food which is not any different in terms of the basic MO vs forex market maker or in fact any kind of market maker. Am i thinking correctly?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #44,640
  • Edited 10:59am Jan 29, 2014 10:05am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Thanks fti for advising on this . I think I am seeing something with what ïs just mentioned in your post here and what was mentioned earlier in this thread such as "market makers quotes scuttering", "market markers games/minefield - no paper", "one bank on mars quoting very high to hit customer order while everybody stares at him and trying to guess what happened and then observing his price being quickly bringing price back" I think if I just try to think of myself as a provision shop owner - in facct, I am like a market maker - market...
Oh you are a trader. Real life trader.
so nothing you will no understand about trading and pricing.
Only different terminology.

market maker is stockist.
traders are middle men
poor man eat more expansive rice.

Trader Mo.
Buy high sell higher.
sell low buy lower

Think.
in this MO about stops.

If i come in your shop buy canned goods.
i ask price you quote $1
i tell you i not want
but i will buy if reach 1.10
what do you think price will be in 10 seconds.( in your shop)(over your counter)


regards
27 traders viewing now