Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 195 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,881
  • Edited 3:20am Jan 28, 2014 2:41am | Edited 3:20am
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AJ sell limit activated. Sorry for ascetic chart. It is tricky to do that on tablet and no way to load indicators.


update. Quite quick SL at 90.95. Waiting for next entry higher
  • #3,882
  • Jan 28, 2014 6:52am Jan 28, 2014 6:52am
Hi Alfonso,

I just wanted to show you my gratitude for providing us all with great education and insight into the supply and demand mechanics of the markets.

Kindest regards,

J
  • #3,883
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:59am Jan 28, 2014 8:59am
Quoting kimis
{image} AJ sell limit activated. Sorry for ascetic chart. It is tricky to do that on tablet and no way to load indicators. update. Quite quick SL at 90.95. Waiting for next entry higher
I still am on the AUDJPY H4 short trade Kimis, my wiggle room on the SL kept me on that one. Maybe it will be a loss, but still on that one.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,884
  • Jan 28, 2014 9:01am Jan 28, 2014 9:01am
Quoting jfut
Hi Alfonso, I just wanted to show you my gratitude for providing us all with great education and insight into the supply and demand mechanics of the markets. Kindest regards, J
You are welcome Jfut, my pleasure! Hopefully your trading is improving a little bit with the webinars, if that is the case then I'm happy and satisfied.
Warmest regards,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,885
  • Jan 28, 2014 9:04am Jan 28, 2014 9:04am
Yes, you told yesterday that you like to give more space for price. I used 3x spread distance from distal line. That was 90.95, very close to round number. And right before sl was hit I was thinkin about moving it above round number to 91.05
  • #3,886
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:47pm Jan 28, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting kimis
Yes, you told yesterday that you like to give more space for price. I used 3x spread distance from distal line. That was 90.95, very close to round number. And right before sl was hit I was thinkin about moving it above round number to 91.05
I understood what you did, but adding 3 times the spread is not part of the backtested rules There is a full video that covers how to pre-plan a trade, wiggle room and so on. Since AUDJPY is a cross pairs, minimum 10-15 pips on H4. This rule could save you from quite a few losses, I've backtested that thoroughly, that's why those numbers are there. It still can be a loss right now, but rules are rules.

Wish u a good day!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,887
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:59pm Jan 28, 2014 3:59pm
Hello Alfonso,

Sorry if this question has been asked before, but I wanted to know how you manage so many different pairs at the same time? Do you use price alerts etc?

Thanks.
  • #3,888
  • Jan 28, 2014 11:56pm Jan 28, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I understood what you did, but adding 3 times the spread is not part of the backtested rules There is a full video that covers how to pre-plan a trade, wiggle room and so on. Since AUDJPY is a cross pairs, minimum 10-15 pips on H4. This rule could save you from quite a few losses, I've backtested that thoroughly, that's why those numbers are there. It still can be a loss right now, but rules are rules. Wish u a good day! Alfonso
The AUDJPY short did not hold in the end.. All H4 CP patterns on the aussie cross pairs and AUDUSD did not hold, not a good sign for a short. It looks like there are another opportunity at the D1 supply level, that one would be worth a try!
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,889
  • Jan 28, 2014 11:57pm Jan 28, 2014 11:57pm
Quoting Pip Singh
Hello Alfonso, Sorry if this question has been asked before, but I wanted to know how you manage so many different pairs at the same time? Do you use price alerts etc? Thanks.
I don't use any price alerts, my personal EA does manage all that. If levels are broken or held in a certain way, the EA knows what to do, if to take previous valid level or wait for other conditions. So I don't need any price alerts to trade really. I could use it to see if levels were broken but that would add some stress to my trading since I would be alerted many times and my ego would want to take over and take a look at the charts... and that would be definitely a problem

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,890
  • Jan 29, 2014 1:42am Jan 29, 2014 1:42am
Hi Alfonso,
Could you check my GBPAUD buying trade case. I think it was a valid trade, but possibly I have missed somthing.
I used Mn, D1, H4 combo. At the begining the price was moving as I wished and made +50pip, but at night it returned and made -100 pip and hitted my SL. On the monthly chart the trend is up with valid trendline. The Mn zones were far away as the last SZ was broken.
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On the daily the trend is up with valid trendline.
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On H4 trend was up with valid trendline at valid fresh DZ (between 1.8836-1.8793) at CP . RR better than 3 good departure, not much trade in the zone.
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I found only one warning sign: the price didnt break above the weekly high.
Now is it allowed by your rules to buy at next D1 DZ or is it necessary to wait the break the weekly?
  • #3,891
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:25am Jan 29, 2014 2:25am
Quoting Serijbok
Hi Alfonso, Could you check my GBPAUD buying trade case. I think it was a valid trade, but possibly I have missed somthing. I used Mn, D1, H4 combo. At the begining the price was moving as I wished and made +50pip, but at night it returned and made -100 pip and hitted my SL. On the monthly chart the trend is up with valid trendline. The Mn zones were far away as the last SZ was broken. {image} On the daily the trend is up with valid trendline. {image} On H4 trend was up with valid trendline at valid fresh DZ (between 1.8836-1.8793) at CP . RR better...

Hi by no means am I claiming to be right however I would have been concerned with the basing just before your trade. As this is the consumption oforders and if it breaks lower to hit zone, probabilities are with the zone breaking as the base and breakout into the supply area shows the bears are in control. Just a thought. All the best
Bye Bye FF
  • #3,892
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:40am Jan 29, 2014 2:40am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I don't use any price alerts, my personal EA does manage all that. If levels are broken or held in a certain way, the EA knows what to do, if to take previous valid level or wait for other conditions. So I don't need any price alerts to trade really. I could use it to see if levels were broken but that would add some stress to my trading since I would be alerted many times and my ego would want to take over and take a look at the charts... and that would be definitely a problem Alfonso
Hello Alfonso,

Is it possible to post the ea?

Thanks
  • #3,893
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:49am Jan 29, 2014 8:49am
Quoting Pip Singh
{quote} Hello Alfonso, Is it possible to post the ea? Thanks
Not possible sorry, my EA is the project of my life... Took me more than a year of development and thousands of dollars! I am sure you understand that!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,894
  • Edited 9:00am Jan 29, 2014 8:50am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} The AUDJPY short did not hold in the end.. All H4 CP patterns on the aussie cross pairs and AUDUSD did not hold, not a good sign for a short. It looks like there are another opportunity at the D1 supply level, that one would be worth a try!
The AUDJPY short planned didn't work, small loss and now dropping like a rock! Happened similar in many AUSSIE cross pairs. These things happen often, so I accept them, it's part of the game. Pity!
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,895
  • Jan 29, 2014 9:24am Jan 29, 2014 9:24am
maybe it will create new oportunity by absorbing demand zone and comming back to new supply zone?
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  • #3,896
  • Jan 30, 2014 9:21am Jan 30, 2014 9:21am
Quoting Chica
{quote} Hi by no means am I claiming to be right however I would have been concerned with the basing just before your trade. As this is the consumption oforders and if it breaks lower to hit zone, probabilities are with the zone breaking as the base and breakout into the supply area shows the bears are in control. Just a thought. All the best
Agreed, that fresh basing, not only was it the creation of new supply just above demand but risk reward is now below 2:1 so trade should have been cancelled.
  • #3,897
  • Jan 30, 2014 9:58am Jan 30, 2014 9:58am
Hi Alfonso,

I'm trying to trade using supply/demand zones, but I'm experiencing a very great amount of losing trades, even if I follow the trend. It's as if the trend reverses right when I enter a trade. Any advice on how I could increase my success rate? How many winning trades do you have in comparison to losses?
  • #3,898
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:16pm Jan 31, 2014 3:16pm
Quoting dvarrin
... I'm trying to trade using supply/demand zones, but I'm experiencing a very great amount of losing trades, even if I follow the trend. It's as if the trend reverses right when I enter a trade. Any advice on how I could increase my success rate? How many winning trades do you have in comparison to losses?
Dvarrin Supply/deman concept its nice but problem is about set forget and
In this thinking this system is nice coz of not using indicators right
And using price action but its only half right
coz let assume you have sell order it's get hit your in a trade so you had like 10 pisps risk you want 30 pips in return
But do you consider when you have near demand ??
This system is Half assed one coz you use price action only to enter but what about managing and exiting trade why not use supply demand to this too
I was using set end forget before same as you but i don't regret time spend on it learnd lots

if you trading like in this thread what are you Swing trader or Scalper think about it the zone is to be broken
Think of that is it supply demand support resistance dosen't matter whats matter near it you have 50% chance it's gonna be broken or respected
So then all you need to do is decide where to take some profit and let it go farther or trail it it's up to you
managing your trade is more important than entries remember that
  • #3,899
  • Edited 6:00pm Jan 31, 2014 5:03pm | Edited 6:00pm
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Alfonso, I'm trying to trade using supply/demand zones, but I'm experiencing a very great amount of losing trades, even if I follow the trend. It's as if the trend reverses right when I enter a trade. Any advice on how I could increase my success rate? How many winning trades do you have in comparison to losses?
dvarrin, could you share a couple of recent and most disappointing for you losing trades, with the MTF analysis and entry time frame rationals for your entry? Also the after the loss pic?
The most important things would be from you (and us) to identify potential reasons why the trade did not work out and learn from those.
I do think that generally it is hard to answer, and you getting the number of winning/losing trades will not help you getting better at it. However, Alfonso did publish earlier results of his, where he has doubled/tripled accounts, and winning rate was nothing really more that 50%-ish... but would make any difference in your trading if you see an 85% winning rate? I do not think so.
All the best.
  • #3,900
  • Feb 1, 2014 4:07am Feb 1, 2014 4:07am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Alfonso, I'm trying to trade using supply/demand zones, but I'm experiencing a very great amount of losing trades, even if I follow the trend. It's as if the trend reverses right when I enter a trade. Any advice on how I could increase my success rate? How many winning trades do you have in comparison to losses?
I can't tell you right now why, it's common when you don't take the right levels or go against HTF levels... it all depends on the timeframe you are using, if you are not using the right levels (too much basing, not good imbalance), or if you are trying to sell into higher timeframe supply or buy into HTF demand. If you could post a couple of your last losses with a detailed analysis, that is, your curve TF and ur entry TF, the level you took and some explanation of why you took the trade, I might be able to help a bit.

Thanks a lot!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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