Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 194 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,861
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:01am Jan 22, 2014 11:01am
Quoting raulbeni
I give up, I've been backesting supply and demand for 15 days, and I can't make profits, at least it was on Forex Tester 2, so nothing lost, except my time.. Hope you do better.
hey raulbeni,

Actually you have lost more than just your time... You have lost your ability to have patience. Patience is one of the KEYS and essential to becoming a successful trader. Whether you stay with Alfonso or move on to something else.. PATIENCE is an absolute must!!

The opportunity that exists with Alfonso is tremendous. Taking the time to learn.. Reading the thread, re reading, posting charts and asking well thought out questions (because you have done your homework) ..... Screen time.. lots and lots and lots of screen time. If you think you can learn and be profitable in a short time, that simply is not the case...Don't be fouled. Be willing to learn from Alfonso.. The amount of information is incredible, and here on FF, it all free.

So sit back, relax and begin your journey starting at post #1. Be willing to put in the time. Watch all the videos you can get your hands on. Again, SCREEN TIME.. lots and lots and lots of screen time. You will begin to see. It will get to a point that no matter what market, what time frame, you will know where and how to trade.

You can thank me later

TSD
  • #3,862
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:08am Jan 23, 2014 7:08am
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} hey raulbeni, Actually you have lost more than just your time... You have lost your ability to have patience. Patience is one of the KEYS and essential to becoming a successful trader. Whether you stay with Alfonso or move on to something else.. PATIENCE is an absolute must!! The opportunity that exists with Alfonso is tremendous. Taking the time to learn.. Reading the thread, re reading, posting charts and asking well thought out questions (because you have done your homework) ..... Screen time.. lots and lots and lots of screen time. If...
The only thing I want is to be profitable, and only God knows how hard I work and how much time I am spending every day to be profitable. I'm looking at tons of strategies or systems, and I don't know which should I choose, cause I don't trust on anyone. As symple as that. I could put every hour of my life on one, but being sure I will reach the profitable moment. I've seen so many videos and posts where people says they are profitable, give conferences, and even build their own school. They just take our money cause they, like me and others don't know how to win money at markets. Not saying at all that Alfonso does, I don't know, thats all. Hope he don't. Good luck everyone.
  • #3,863
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:41am Jan 23, 2014 8:41am
Hey Raulbeni,

If there is one thing you take away from this experience, it is, in my humble opinion, and I agree with TraderinSD, is that you need to choose and stick to one system for a longer time.

By "one system" I mean approach, strategy, method: trade setup, conditions/filters, entry method, exit method, position size.

By "longer time" I mean long enough to really know the system very well. It is probably going through hundreds of setups, either in simulator, or just looking at historical charts (I am creating my own private "setups catalog" with screenshots of my setup, losers and winners).

And "is it a system you can trust?"... you need to make a choice... but whatever you choose, for a higher chance of a long term suscess, I think you need to stick to it for a while. In my opinion SD system, especially Alfonso's version is a good candidate to focus on for a while. Is this is a good system for you? I do not know.

Once I read in Market Wizadrs book series by Jack Schwagger that almost any system can be profitable, but it is a matter of a trader. At first, I did not believe it. I thought, a system is either profitable or not, if traded properly, it does not matter who trades it. I changed my mind. Now I believe it. If only we taked purely mechanical systems, this could be true. But we do not (why is a different story).

So, SD system and many other systems can be traded in a profitable way, I think. Just that it needs to be a system that is right for you and you need to trade it well (i.e. know it very well, execute flawlessly, etc.)

And how to tell if the sys is right for you? consider how much time you have , timeframes traded, distribution of losers and winnders, your trust in it (if you really do not trust a system, you are unlikely to be able to trade it profitably). One last point... simple systems are better.

I am on this journey as well.
I wish you good luck.
Michal9
  • #3,864
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:02am Jan 23, 2014 9:02am
Quoting Carousel46
This is USDJPY monthly. Are the zones drawn correctly? What about the two in the middle - CP patterns? Would you draw them where they are? Are the bottom three ones original? I am not sure about those two at the bottom if they are considered original, because they seem like a reaction to previous SZ, although they didnt touch them. Thanks. {image}
Hi Carousel46,

if I understand correctly Alfonso half bar rule, then your supply zones (lower 3) must be drawn wider (pink zones), because all neighboring half bars (open close distance (body of candle) is eq. or less than the half of distance between high and low) have to be included to the zone. This zones are very close to each other, they forms a compressed supply zone and I think non of them is original.
Attached Image
  • #3,865
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:40am Jan 23, 2014 11:40am
Quoting Irad
Hi, I wanted to share AJ setup I am looking at right now Weekly: Consolidation(who is in control? I barely can say...) {image} Daily: departure from daily demand, now we are approaching fresh daily supply {image} 4H: inside the daily demand fresh(some will say also original) supply area(RBD) - set&forget(I'll go set&remember style) {image}
Hi,
I posted that setup 3 week ago,

I didn't take that one eventually
But still wanted to share what happened.
I might be not getting filled on that particular trade which is okay because price engulfed demand and make a new supply to be taken later that week,

for those who are watching that thread and like "yeaaahhh I wanna be a swing trader and catch moves of 300 pips"
watch those screenshots it took 2 weeks just to get into the desired direction! 31/12/2013 was the date that price approached daily supply and only by the 17/01/2014 it reached daily demand after doing sideways activity for almost 2 weeks and into a the direction of the trade for the next half a week
and BTW, there were major aussie news in the meantime as well after 2 weeks

I can't do those swings anyway.. I am patience but not that patience

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  • #3,866
  • Jan 24, 2014 7:40am Jan 24, 2014 7:40am
Hello fellow traders!

This is just a quick reminder that next Monday 27th January there is a free live webinar, those who have not joined yet can do it now.

  1. DATE: Monday 27th January 2014
  2. TIME: 1 PM to 2:30 P.M Central European Time | 7 a.m to 8:30 a.m EST. Right 1 hour before NY Market Open

What will we cover on this webinar?

  1. Trading with the trend and with higher timeframe's direction
  2. Questions and answers

If you haven't joined any webinars before, you will have to fill out this form: http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars
Have a great day!
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,867
  • Edited 8:17am Jan 24, 2014 7:55am | Edited 8:17am
Quoting Irad
{quote} Hi, I posted that setup 3 week ago, I didn't take that one eventually But still wanted to share what happened. I might be not getting filled on that particular trade which is okay because price engulfed demand and make a new supply to be taken later that week, for those who are watching that thread and like "yeaaahhh I wanna be a swing trader and catch moves of 300 pips" watch those screenshots it took 2 weeks just to get into the desired direction! 31/12/2013 was the date that price approached daily supply and only by the 17/01/2014 it...
Hello Irad,

Being patience is key in trading and life, no matter if you are a swing trader, intraday or scalper. Patience is paramount. There are certain rules, if rules do not allow you to take a trade what are you gonna do? Take it? Silly, isn't it? If swing trading is not for you then switch to intraday or scalping, each trader decides. It's also funny to see that you waited 2 weeks for a setup and then you didn't take it, look now where price is on AUDUSD. Rules are rules and need to be followed, you know what I mean.

Remember there are more than 30 good pairs to trade at, maybe the AUDUSD took a few days to be triggered, and? That's what sometimes takes, but you then have your reward. In the meantime, you were waiting for that others triggered, and then one day like yesterday or 2 days ago, lots of aussie shorts triggered, like it did on my side on AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDSGD, and long EURAUD. I waited and I got my reward.

The first thing you need to do is decide what type of trader you are, and then follow the rules.. if you are a doing swing trading you have to follow the swing rules or you'll probably blow up ur account pretty quickly.

But I want you to know, all traders learn that by experience, that impatience is what kills all traders, and when I mean all that's what I mean, ALL.
Make up your mind and decide what type of trading u want to do, and then if SD goes with you. And also decide which is the average monthly winning % you are aiming at, it's all based on how greedy and impatience one is.

Have a great weekend Irad.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,868
  • Jan 24, 2014 9:51am Jan 24, 2014 9:51am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Irad, Being patience is key in trading and life, no matter if you are a swing trader, intraday or scalper. Patience is paramount. There are certain rules, if rules do not allow you to take a trade what are you gonna do? Take it? Silly, isn't it? If swing trading is not for you then switch to intraday or scalping, each trader decides. It's also funny to see that you waited 2 weeks for a setup and then you didn't take it, look now where price is on AUDUSD. Rules are rules and need to be followed, you know what I mean. Remember there...
Damn, you always misunderstood what I post here ,
I didn't wait 2 weeks for a trade to form, but said that It took 2 weeks for the trade to take direction and in the meantime it got aussie news and NFP. rules doesn't allow to trade major news event

I wanted to write about my patience the last post, so i'll write it now
I said that I am patience but not that patience,
I am comfortable with waiting 0-1 days to get my trade results, but watching my trade goes from +120 pips to -10 back to +100 and again +10 and than news comes while you are at +10 pips what would you do? Close the trade? take this trade into B/E? or wait to see the results because you were in that trade for 10 days already(It's a rhetorical question I don't need answer for those questions),anyway each trader will decide if that's for him, I am more comfortable watch my trade goes from +20 back to -3 and then getting into my target
Price is Fractal:nerd:

anyway,I don't scalp(shiz.. I have no idea why everyone call 1m trade a scalp trade, S&D trading looks always like a swing trade even on tiny timeframe) but more doing 15m-60m TF trading using daily curve and weekly for some more clues

and I agree, impatience get kill both trader and his account
that's why I am went to lower timeframe I am patience enough to strike those 15m levels

BTW, you have good trading rules,


The reasons why I didn't took this AJ trade doesn't change the fact that rules meet the criteria for a trading short there.

Have a great weekend too Alfonso
  • #3,869
  • Jan 24, 2014 5:11pm Jan 24, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Being patience is key in trading and life, Alfonso
Hello mr alfonso, i see you are posting many words and advices here and running the paid services on external websites would you mind uploading your statement to the trade explorer here so we can look to see some verified returns before deciding on your subscriptions.

thank you, sgp.
  • #3,870
  • Edited Jan 25, 2014 4:05pm Jan 24, 2014 5:27pm | Edited Jan 25, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting sgpbufet
{quote} Hello mr alfonso, i see you are posting many words and advices here and running the paid services on external websites would you mind uploading your statement to the trade explorer here so we can look to see some verified returns before deciding on your subscriptions. thank you, sgp.
Hello!
Thanks for your message. I am not using FF's trade explorer. Refer to the first post of this thread, you will find a link to a post were all this was discussed and links to some of my verified live MyFxBook accounts were displayed. I am now using other brokers and accounts which have not been disclosed, and it will stay like that, I have no obligation to do that, but I already did it like I mentioned on that post which I believe is this post. and this is all I'm gonna do. Didn't need to show that but I need, won't do any more. You can or can't believe in the methodology, I don't need to prove any more the validity of the rules or my profitability. If anybody does not understand it, he's free not to spend his time testing and trading it.

I am no longer linking my accounts to any kind of public/private external services like FF or similar, I disclosed that information at that time to clear up some doubts, and that's all I will do. People is always looking for proof of everything, which is also logical, but having 1 trader or 100 traders trading a strategy and being profitable does NOT necessarily mean that the trader number 101 will be profitable, it all has to do with successfully managing one's emotions so that they allow you to follow the rules and trading plan. Strangely enough, most people can't follow a trading plan and set of rules.

Have a great weekend,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,871
  • Edited 10:59am Jan 25, 2014 4:28am | Edited 10:59am
Dear fellow trader,

I've decided to start a new saga of short videos for all those that subscribed to www.set-and-forget.com free webinars, and subscribers to the free Forex Factory supply and demand forum. I will select one pair every week and post a higher probability trade I am willing to take and explain to you the exact reasons why I am willing to take it.

TRADE OF THE WEEK (27TH JANUARY 2013): AUDJPY H4 SHORT
This is the trade of the week I've chosen

- The Monthly chart is in a clear downtrend
- The D1 chart is also in a clear downtrend with brand new fresh supply formed on the Daily chart
- Since we have H4 direction and H4 descending Trendline is being respected, we're allowed to go short as long as D1 demand is not in control

TRADE VIDEO:
Inserted Video


Have a great weekend! Have fun!
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,872
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:47am Jan 25, 2014 4:47am
Quoting panoramia
Dear fellow trader, I've decided to start a new saga of short videos for all those that subscribed to www.set-and-forget.com free webinars, and subscribers to the free Forex Factory supply and demand forum. I will select one pair every week and post a higher probability trade I am willing to take and explain to you the exact reasons why I am willing to take it. AUDJPY H4 SHORT RATIONALE This is the trade of the week I've chosen - The Monthly chart is in a clear downtrend - The D1 chart is also in a clear downtrend with brand new fresh...
Is this for this week which has already gone or for next week?
  • #3,873
  • Jan 25, 2014 10:58am Jan 25, 2014 10:58am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Is this for this week which has already gone or for next week?
It's for this week, haven't u seen the date on Metatrader 4 and the charts? It should be the same that you have on your platform
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,874
  • Jan 26, 2014 1:55am Jan 26, 2014 1:55am
Alfonso

can you share your analysis on gold and gbpnzd for this week?
  • #3,875
  • Jan 26, 2014 3:19am Jan 26, 2014 3:19am
Quoting trexy123
Alfonso can you share your analysis on gold and gbpnzd for this week?
I'll try to go through them tomorrow Monday on the free webinar. If you haven't joined it yet, fill up the form in this page http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars and you will get the link to join the webinar

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,876
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:35am Jan 27, 2014 9:35am
Hello fellow trader!

Today's free live supply and demand webinar on trading swing/position setups has already been held, all the webinar's subscribers will receive an email with the link to watch the video. The webinar is only available to those on the mailing list. Many of you couldn't make it to the webinar, however since they are on the mailing list, the recorded session will allow you to watch it as many times as they want.

I wanted to thank you for the massive support, lots of traders attended today's webinar, I really appreciate that. I just hope that I can somehow can help you improve your trading.

Today's webinar goes in more or less detail on these subjects:

- How to trade when the Monthly timeframe is in consolidation mode
- How important respecting the opposing D1 SD zones are
- How important is to make a top-down analysis to assess how high in the MN curve the D1 zones are
- When to wait for a candle close above S/R before instead of a trade though a zone

If you were late and couldn't join the webinar's mailing list, fill out the form at http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars and I will send you the link.

Have a great day!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,877
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:55am Jan 27, 2014 9:55am
Hi Alfonso,

Thank you very much for taking the time to organise the free webinar. The webinar has helped me to gain a better understanding of the rules and I appreciate your effort.

cheers!
  • #3,878
  • Edited 6:17pm Jan 27, 2014 5:59pm | Edited 6:17pm
Hi Alfonso, great webinar, Thank you!!
Everything seems to be improving in the sequence and logic as you explain, and removing the bias by showing rather non generally traded stuff is a very good idea, so we can focus on logic and rules rather than everyday thoughts of ours . This is teaching and not spoon feeding . Great!
Thank you.
  • #3,879
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:51am Jan 28, 2014 12:51am
Quoting jack108
Hi Alfonso, Thank you very much for taking the time to organise the free webinar. The webinar has helped me to gain a better understanding of the rules and I appreciate your effort. cheers!
You are welcome Jack, my pleasure. Glad to help you to have a better understanding of the rules. Keep it up!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,880
  • Jan 28, 2014 12:54am Jan 28, 2014 12:54am
Quoting lobogabor
Hi Alfonso, great webinar, Thank you!! Everything seems to be improving in the sequence and logic as you explain, and removing the bias by showing rather non generally traded stuff is a very good idea, so we can focus on logic and rules rather than everyday thoughts of ours . This is teaching and not spoon feeding . Great! Thank you.

Thanks for your kind words, I appreciate that. It's my pleasure to try and help you to have a better view and understanding of the rules. Like you said, by analysing completely different pairs, even some your broker does not even have, is great because you will not have a bias and will be able to see rules pop up and guide you in the process. If we go through GBPUSD or EURUSD, you will already have your opinion about it and no matter what we say in the analysis, your mind will try to play tricks on you.

Our enemy is not the markets, our enemies are not the big institutions manipulating the markets... It's OURSELVES, our minds and emotions!

Have a great day!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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