Is China's economy headed for a crash? | Forex Factory

Is China's economy headed for a crash? | Forex Factory

Is China's economy headed for a crash?

From theweek.com

In his assessment of the global economy's performance 2013, legendary financier George Soros warned of dangers in the Chinese economy: The major uncertainty facing the world today is not the euro but the future direction of China. The growth model responsible for its rapid rise has run out of steam. That model depended on financial repression of the household sector, in order to drive the growth of exports and investments. As a result, the household sector has now shrunk to 35 percent of GDP, and its forced savings are no longer sufficient to finance the current growth model. This has led to an exponential rise in ... (full story)

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Jan 13, 2014 8:56pm

Quoting M.A.C.Doug

Disliked

they have enough surplus cash and gold to cover it if it does

Ignored

No they dont. They have had three bank credit crunches in 2013 and they are running out of room to cover those. They are buried in debt on the local and provincial level far beyond what they can cover. Their 8-10% growth rate covered these warts up but now that their growth level is going to 7% and possibly lower they are being exposed. Just look at the AUD price and you can see the lack of Chinese imports of AUD products. This was the first bubble to burst. If it levels they will survive but if you see the AUD tank more that is the one truth they cannot cover up. They cannot hide the sinking AUD because of lack of exports. Also watch the flight of Chinese rich and cash out of the country.

The gold story of the Chinese buying it up is hogwash. If the Chinese were buying as much gold on the open market that people were claiming they were gold prices would be going up not sinking over 30% over the last year. Just follow the prices they tell the truth. The price of gold is not a lie.

Jan 14, 2014 11:51am

Quoting boon2

Disliked

You really should do your research, Aust. exported record amount of iron ore to China in 2013

So AUD not sinking because of export's but more to do with price of minerals and not to mention a very over valued AUD from US FED manipulation of it's ccy!

O and China doesn't need to buy gold as it's the biggest gold producer in the world that doesn't export 1 ounce of it!

Ignored

Be very careful who you are talking to. I actually live, work, and do business in China and have survived for 12 years here and made money. So I know China. You mentioned that I need to do my research on iron so I will respond to you on the iron industry.

China has a huge problem with over production/over capacity of its industries. I will take iron as the example. Comrade A is a leader of his city or region. He sees comrade B doing well and getting promotions and press in the party. He is also driving one heck of a luxury car. Comrade B is moving up. How is he doing it? Well he brought iron manufacturing to his town and became a success. So comrade A convinces his town leadership that they also should get into the iron industry. So to attract investors and business they offer up incentive package for a company to come and make iron in their town also. The company comes, jobs happen, prosperity hits the town, everything turns up roses. Comrade A moves up and is promoted within the party also. So Comrade C and D and E and so on do the same thing. Soon you have iron industries popping up all over China, promotions are being handed out, and comrades are moving up the ladder of authority in the govt. The real big boys make it to the top positions in Beijing. The problem is too much iron is being made, prices drop, profits disappear, quality suffers as each company tries to compete and make their product. Comrade A is high up in govt. now. His gravy train town is suffering from lack of orders but you cant cut back production, his future career and his town would be in jeopardy. Loans are taken out to keep the company afloat. Bigger and bigger subsidies are given out so the workers can be paid and the company can show a profit. The city cant afford the company to fail because there goes its tax base for the construction loans of improving their city. The company is bleeding big time red ink but that is covered up. One person estimated that 50% of the companies in China show a profit because of subsidies now not sales of the product. This is happening in industry after industry after industry all over China. Loans are going belly up and companies can not make their loan payments. Cities and provinces are hocked over their heads in debt and businesses are not allowed to fail by those who have profited the most politically from them. Tax revenues are in serious danger and huge local govt. debt is in danger of going belly up.

A new leader came to power last year in China and he started a clean up campaign. Thousands upon thousands of comrades have been investigated. It is not pretty. The estimate finally came down for the iron industry and the estimate is production needs to be cut by 25% to alleviate over production. Guess what that will do to the AUD? Guess which comrades get their industries protected and guess which ones will get cut? Certainly the guys in Beijing wont be cutting their gravy train to the top. What will the towns do that do get cut? Here come the layoffs, down go tax revenues, etc. etc.

Last year a very brave writer for the Guangzhou newspaper wrote a series of articles on Zoomlion. One of the biggest companies in China who have leaders who rode its coat tails to the top. He exposed the inside corruption, bribes, kickbacks, bank ties and shadow bank ties. His reward-- a 3 year jail sentence. The newspaper at first tried to back him but was later forced to write a retraction and an apology made front page news. Starting next month all workers in the news media will have to take an oath of loyalty to the party to keep their jobs. You are either with us or you are out. Interesting times.

I could go on but sir, but learn this. Yes I do know what i am talking about and yes I have done my research. Maybe you should do yours before you start throwing accusations around.

Jan 14, 2014 12:04pm

Quoting frx_trader

Disliked

I have never heard of middle class in China, either they are too small or negligible. Hotels, Roads, some housing are built for foreigners who carry USD and foreign passports. The Chinese are prohibited to enter certain Restaurants, Cafes, Hotels, etc.

Ignored

Depends on how you define middle class. If you define it by a Chinese standard it is over 30%. That means the person or family has their own apartment, a vehicle, (not necessarily a car), and has enough money to buy non essentials, like cell phone, computers, nice clothes, can travel on vacation. etc. The number of Chinese that can do that now is over 30% maybe even 40. If you define it by Western standards then it would be less.

Jan 15, 2014 12:01am

Quoting boon2

Disliked

Yes I believe you are correct to a certain degree that China has over production as I have realized this threw research and media commentary and I think China is putting in some nice controls for this over the last year or so!

But having said that the comment i made off your quote regarding AUD is a fact and I will say it again! (just google it I'm sure you will find this claim to be true and if you don't I can certainly find a few link's for ya)

Last year Aust. exported more iron ore to China then ever before, 100% fact and this is coming...

Ignored

And the information you have is true at the time it was stated but China is trying to undo some of these bubbles they have created and the iron industry is one of them. Banking is another, they have been working on real estate for a while an dit still has not cooled that much. The quote was a 25% cut back in production/businesses to try to make the industry profitable again. They have to stop the overproduction and that is their goal for the steel industry. Now setting a goal and reaching/enforcing it is another story. It's going to cause a mess but we dont know how big of a one. Again watch the price of the AUD because it will be affected by the outcome. That is the one indicator that really shows how the Chinese economy is doing. If they are importing raw materials then it is doing well and the AUD will do well. If it falters and they are trying to cover it up, they cant hide it from the AUD. Importing will go down and the AUD will go down unless it finds new markets in recovering economies. As the AUD depreciates its products become attractive to other markets again.

Jan 15, 2014 12:04am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

Just to add that the Chinese tourist is the biggest spender in the UK, and in terms of immigration they're the ones made most welcome in the uk and the least put off by the non EU freedom of movement restrictions, they're very willing to pay to enter and stay in the uk. Iirc it was approx 50K migrated to the UK in 2013, outstripping any other immigrants by some distance.

Ignored

They say that China is consuming over 60% of the luxury market at this time. The well off Chinese person is very interested in investing overseas and other countries to diversify their wealth. Their options are limited in China because the good stuff is own and controlled by the party and real estate is priced so high it is becoming very risky to invest further in it. For example in many major cities property /housing is 40x the average income. Very few can afford to buy anymore in the big cities. real estate investment is now going on in the countryside.

Jan 15, 2014 9:06pm

I love this thread, great discussions here. Comparing Chinese growth and USA growth from the past has validity except there is one major problem. Population, it is their strength and weakness. If everyone owns a car like in the USA where do you put them all. Several of their cities have limited car sales and they plan on restricting car sales even more. Not only because of pollution but also space. Beijing has had 2 major traffic jams, one which took 30 days to untangle and they just had another that took 10 days. We in the West cannot fathom such problems much less conceive of solving them. 10 years ago China had no billionaires, now they have over 180. Growth has its limits. Space has its limits. I dont travel during rush hour times anymore. In the city where I live the exits and entrances of freeways have policeman during rush hour to keep traffic from getting tangled. Imagine posting 2-4 policeman at every entrance/exit to keep traffic moving. I have never seen anything like and it is a hard thing to describe and get people to understand but it is a daily event. There are intersections up to 6 patrolman have to guide traffic during rush hour. Its a mess. you may remember pictures in the past of thousands of bicycle people riding bikes down the boulevards of a Chinese city. Now these people have cars and they were packed as bicyclists. I sure am glad I am not a govt. official in China having to try to solve such problems.

Jan 20, 2014 12:57am

Is Chinese data rigged?? Good question. I will try my best to answer with the knowledge I have. China has some problems with numbers because reporting is not as accurate as elsewhere. They simply dont have the resources or manpower in place to know everything that is going on in a country of 1.3 Billion. Let me give you unemployment figures as an example:

Lets say they report 6.1% unemployment rate. What does that mean? Well if you are a factory worker in Guangzhou you probably came from another province. When factory orders dry up and the plant closes or reduces work, you go home. Migrant workers number in the 100 of millions. They travel from the poorer provinces to the richer provinces for work and then send their savings back home. An average Chinese person saves almost 30% of their paycheck. So when there is no work they go back home. Registered workers keep their jobs in a slowdown so unemployment figures do not fluctuate much. The unregistered worker goes back to his village/farm and lives with family working on the farm or hang out with others until the market picks up again. Many will buy a cart, go to the wholesale markets, and then sell odds and ends on the street. They could buy 20 pairs of tennis shoes and sit on a street or road and sell their wares. They dont get unemployment benefits like many in the West do. So how do you count them?? They no longer have jobs, but they no longer exist in the system. Are they unemployed?? They are back on the farm working with family, relatives, etc. or working the streets trying to sell something. I have known Chinese people who build up their savings and dont work for 6 months or a year. Then go out and work 2-4 years and take a half to a year off. No debt living has its benefits. How do you count these in statistics. So this is one of the problems with Chinese data. It is incomplete or not measurable.

Jan 20, 2014 1:08am

Another problem is the culture phenomenon of saving face. It is not appropriate to give bad news. Doctors wont tell you, you have 6 months left to live. Employee wont give their bosses the real figures but fudge them to make their bosses look good. If you have a production goal to make, by golly you made the goal. If you didnt you dont tell the boss. You can bury bad news in a pile of paperwork so no one can find it. The Chinese equate relationships more important than information. It is part of the culture. Nailing down the specifics of a business deal is a very exasperating experience. You spend your time creating Guangxi (friendship/relationship) than working with numbers on a business deal. It is not the same as brown nosing but that is what some foreigners think it is. It is a different culture and value system. Anyway, I dont trust their figures very much because I know they have leeway.

One of my biggest surprises when I came to China was their view of contracts. They are not fixed in stone like in the West. They are always open to renegotiate or a point of reference for further negotiations. Very frustrating when you think you have a deal and you really dont. It is changing and contracts are more consistently being backed by the courts but still............ Anyway just some experiences I have here.

Jan 14, 2014 3:19am

Quoting sliqdaddy91

Disliked

You're right, you guys really are growing at 7.5%, the ghost cities, credit crunches, and "booming" middle class hint at a strong Communist nation that does nothing but consume, produce and then rinse and repeat.

Ignored

Lol...
And you think anti USA positions are biased.
Do you have any idea what they are doing with these supposed Ghost cities? The idea these cities will "apparently never be filled" is a figment of your pathetic MSM's imagination.
China has a long way to go to improve their quality but in transforming their economy, they are just getting started, and you are calling for a crash along with the cnbc's and nbc's lol.
Meanwhile, what's happening in your own backyard, nice to see your govt back up and running again.

Typical....

You had better hope they don't crash, who will keep buying up "all your debt"?

Oh that's right, we can always have more Fed purchases to infinity.
Won't that end well....

Jan 14, 2014 2:25pm — Edited

Quoting sliqdaddy91

Disliked

Aren't CNBC, NBC, as well as most banks/brokers bullish of China? Lol, not sure what you mean when you say I am following the media because I am fairly certain I am in the minority when it comes to my beliefs of a "fraudulent" China and it's manipulative ways.

Haha and I laugh at you when you accuse me of being biased for the US, as I trade what I believe and TO ME the US economy is outpacing everyone else. Although any kind of biased accusations coming from you is fuk all, simply because it is evident how you are clearly one of the most biased...

Ignored

You can laugh all you want, I gave you facts and trends and a picture based on figures and Fed policy.
What have you given us?
Oh that's right - US is doing great!!! while peering out from behind your pom poms.
Real thought provoking stuff there....
No, my views aren't biased, it's your empty statements that are clearly biased.

I've posted my higher TF cable charts numerous times, if you are not able to interpret them, that is not my problem. I do not yet have any reason to change my stance, the fact that the breakout has not occurred yet is no more relevant today to my overall picture than it was yesterday.
Now China, heading down the road towards becoming quite the self sufficient country, "investing" globally and making global friends, rather than...... (Don't want to hurt your feelings here.....).

Jan 14, 2014 2:31pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity.

Ignored

If the truth was faced, it would be so ugly they might turn to stone.

Jan 15, 2014 8:38pm

Quoting pt49

Disliked

oh shit, not a
bloody pommie.

Its the bloody Poms that sold us down river into Statutory slavery... them and the friggin vatican.

Ignored

Slavery! Ha, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
British never did forgive the Yanks for breaking free.
The whirlwind is coming...

I think you might have misinterpreted some comments as judging China.
SB's a facts and figures man, I hadn't thought about the energy consumption angle much, although he's mentioned it before.

Jan 16, 2014 4:55am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

Sorry if your popcorn got cold waiting mate, I read his replies last night, sighed and moved on. Now that you've discovered an untapped lake of oil as big as the Atlantic in your country the globe's imminent energy crisis is solved :/sarc

Ignored

What do you know about Fracking?
I'm not reading good things about it but I'm aware there are always 2 sides to a debate

Jan 16, 2014 2:16pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

In terms of symbolism it represents an end of days desperation; polluting billions of gallons of water on an adventure that may only result in (at best) 3 years supply in of gas in the UK is fubar IMO. In the uk our energy supply and security is fukced, the fact that a huge proportion of our nat gas comes in liquid form via tankers from Qatar illustrates what a huge issue we're facing here on these barren windswept isles.

The French company Total is banned from fracking in France where it's unlawful, the UK welcomed them with open arms, I'm sure...

Ignored

Thanks very much for all that.
Yep that was pretty much my view.

Cheers

Jan 17, 2014 6:09am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

thanks. Good read. China maybe will get bubbled but chinese won't die. Now is new era, what you have we have. but what you don have, we do have. that is people. we are too many in number, inland or oversea. wait and see if china get bubbled and we ask the you to pay back your debt. Guess you will get bubbled too.

Ignored

no no don't be like that.
You will have their industry, they will pay you,

promise...........

Jan 18, 2014 3:20am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity.

Ignored

Actually, yes they are ... The Chinese stats are more rigged than the US stats.

Jan 18, 2014 8:55am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

You have absolutely no proof of that, you're basing your lazy, stereotypical assumption on the wall of conjecture built up by the USA mainstream media.

Ignored

Well hi there. What good for the goose is good for the gander.

Where is your proof ?

The next words from you will be more didactic diatribe as above I presume.

Jan 18, 2014 9:05am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

You made the claim not me, the onus is on you to prove it. Where is your bullet proof evidence, non anecdotal, that Chinese data is either less reliable and more corrupted than the USA's?

Ignored

err .. dude. The onus is on you and your buddy.

This is the claim:

"Quoting Spreadbetter
I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity."

Now give me some facts.
And none of that dialectical bullshit.
Just the facts ma'am.

Jan 18, 2014 10:49am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

I'm not interested in what SB posted. Let's keep this simple, you made this claim:-

"The Chinese stats are more rigged than the US stats."

Now prove it, or just stfu.

Ignored

This is your piece of "disinformation" not mine ...
When you have your daily afternoon tea with "SB", please tell him to support his claims when pushing both your agenda on FF.
or indeed stfu...

Jan 19, 2014 5:31pm

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

So you've nothing to prove your assertion that "China's data is rigged". It's just something you've picked up from the USA mainstream media that you've blindly accepted without any research or investigation. Rather than support your claim you then litter your childish responses with pathetic attempts at misdirection and dissembling.

Ignored

The pot calling the kettle black won't do it my friend.
Your pseudo intellectual attitude is endearing but mostly pathetic.

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

So which one is you and which one is spreadbetter ?

Stop playing that dumb holier-than-thou crap. Your game is obvious.

Jan 20, 2014 5:18am — Edited

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

So you can't answer the question because you have no proof. You made a rash statement that you can't back up with facts and in a desperate attempt to row back you now avoid the questions and meander on a weird, disjointed, rambling journey. But your arrogance and weak personality prevents you from manning up, admitting you were wrong and moving on. I'd imagine (as an old bloke) if this is how you act in 'real life' you're an abject failure...

You have zero reputation or credibility on here. Every time I see you post on the new section you eventually...

Ignored

You are really funny. It was never for me to prove anything.
I am still waiting for a constructive comment for this remark:

"I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity.""

Do you really think anyone has any credibility here? Are you that gullible?
Are all those insults really necessary?
You seem angry.

Jan 20, 2014 12:45pm

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

You just can't help yourself can you? You suggest reputation and credibility is not an issue on FF (which it is) and yet you're desperately trying to get both the last word and a smart Alec remark in as you exit stage left.

As for the constructive comment you're after the poster who posted it has you on ignore. It has nothing to do with me.

You made the claim that Chinese data was rigged. Prove it. Not anecdotal rumours, or conjecture, just prove it. You can't, we both know it, but rather than just stfu, admit it and slink off you just can't...

Ignored

Obviously, you should not get into a debate in which logic is involved.
You will lose.
Your initial assertion was responded to in a similar fashion.
Simple logical fallacy on your part.
You are telling me there is a tea kettle floating in space between Mars and Jupiter. No one can see it.
Now you are asking me to prove it does not exist.
People like you who feed off North Korean propaganda are all the same.
Rather amusing, don't you think?

Jan 20, 2014 12:49pm

Quoting boon2

Disliked

Well stop saying BS if you can't back it up!

Dame jank's have the intelligence of a puppy LOL

US has the most corrupt, dysfunctional government in the world bar none! ROFL

Ignored

So you never go see a movie or use any technology (Made in China (: ) ... and the list is long very long.

BTW, you are an hypocrite? are you not? after all Forex Factory is a U.S. company.

Jan 21, 2014 8:42am — Edited

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Your refusal to back up your claim, after numerous opportunities, speaks volumes regarding your embarrassing lack of knowledge and understanding. You are the perfect example of an attention seeking internet troll, well done on that. Enjoy your success, you've earned it....

Ignored

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

In his own sad demented way he's as much of a nuisance and troll as the Nigerian. What a pitiful existence these characters must lead.

Ignored

oh my.. you just can't address the real issue, now can you?

It appears that a bit of pressure makes you spew out insults and put downs.

Now that I have both of you together, I am going to drop a little knowledge on y'all.

This is how you come accross when you are cornered - you regurgitate statements of this type:

"Your dislike of me and those like me is just a manifestation of your own feelings of frustration and inadequacy with regards to your pesonal status in an
evolving and increasingly stratified economic and social landscape."

Now, I am not Cambridge educated like you two; but even a 12 year old can do better.

If you believe that you are "credible" I really think you should learn the proper banter to efficiently further your "mission".

As it is, you two sound just like those two guys:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

Now feel free to offer a strong apology - and no vilification or vituperation please.

Jan 24, 2014 4:53am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

You still not found that proof that China's data is rigged then? We both know you can't as it doesn't exist, so stop it with this bullshit and just move on.

Ignored

You are a funny bunny. You want the last work really bad, don't you?

You and I and your side kick(s) and what you represent we all know very well this is not about "if the chinese economic data is rigged" (excuse me while I laugh here..)

So there....

You can have it.
Have fun with the other 8 year olds.

Until next time... I love to take on bullies. See you soon again at recess.

Jan 24, 2014 6:32am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Is that it, are you now finished as well as being washed up? You can't provide the proof on China I asked for, I gave you an extra two days to do so. That's all I wanted, but you couldn't provide it, so rather than admit you're wrong you went off on a weird disjointed ramble. No wonder you can't take a dime out of this market. Next time just stfu rather than mouthing off and making yourself look studid.

Ignored

oh my ... more insults.. I'll have to report you to the head master.
Let's face it. You got some problems bud.
BTW .. how is the recruiting going ?

Jan 24, 2014 9:57am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Problems? Nope, not from where I'm sitting, the problems are all yours. You just can't admit you're wrong can you? I'll bet you cling onto losers and cut winners short too. You sad fukcin muppet.

Ignored

More insults. I am hitting a nerve... Ok
You are not doing too well. Are you ?
Scraping the bottom like that you appear like as one sad puppy.
Now you turn the subject to trading ... that is really lame.
You still have not made one intelligent comment since the beginning of our "discussion".

... So how is the recruiting going ?

and as I explained before about muppets :

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

May I call you Waldorf ?

BTW, am I not on your ignore list already ?

Jan 24, 2014 11:42am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I take you off ignore to see what you're up to. More of the same I see, avoiding the question posed, scrambling around for a desperate foothold and trolling. It's quite a peculiar character trait you have there not admitting you're wrong. I'm with squeeze I'll bet you're a total loser at trading.

Oh, as for squeeze not doing well that's amusing. I wish I was a quid behind his six figure bonus at Xmas.

Ignored

I am no longer on your ignore list.

I am flattered. Really, I am blushing with appreciation.

So Mr. squeeze needed help and ran to the big brother to beat me up.
That is so funny.
Am I supposed to be impressed by "six figure bonus" ?
.. and go cower in a corner because "you bet I am a total loser at trading" ?

That is so wonderfully in character - and you two together .. stop it now, I am laughing too hard.

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

You two are funny phonies and you have an agenda. Stop fooling the newbies.

Jan 29, 2014 3:43am — Edited

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

So is paranoia also part of your diagnosis and illness? You're seeing agendas, thinking posters are "recruiting", now you're feeling insecure, envious and "ganged up on". And still you can't answer a simple question, or admit you're wrong. That brittle personality and equally fragile character must have served you well in your career choices, leading you to your peak - trolling on Internet forums.

Ignored

Still the same pompous, pedandic diatribe. Please put me back on your ignore list

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity.

Ignored

You still have not bothered to explain. China, USA or else ==> all data is rigged. In your case your constant America bashing is so obvious I had to say something.

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

You really are a strange little paranoid person aren't you? Would you like to illuminate us wrt these conspiracy theories you have? Agendas, recruitment...? Wtf....

Ignored

... You called me a "person".. no name-calling, no insults ? Looks like there is still hope for you.

ttfn

Jan 13, 2014 9:17pm

Where the AUD goes, so goes Gold... or visa versa, take your pick.

And as bob baby pointed out, the Australia (and the AUD) are tied at the crotch to China... just like lovers who hate each other.

China, AUD, Gold... the trifecta.

When China gets a weepy nose, Australia gets the Flu... and Gold follows the AUD.

Take a look at history.

The AUD is 80% correlated to Gold, 2nd only to the NZD at 88%.

Jan 15, 2014 4:13am — Edited

Naningbob is correct.

While China is a great nation population wise, they are yet to become a great nation of consumers... but I believe that will happen, because the powers that be in China know it is ABSOLUTELY necessary.

China's middle class is potentially 10 times larger than the middle class of America from 65 yeatrs ago, and we all know what America did.

The question is really this... "Can China can convert 1 billion peasants into a middle class consumer society?"... without the massive population explosion that America had in the same comparative period.

Jan 15, 2014 4:29am

China really only has 2 choices... create the freedoms that allow a consumer class to thrive, or revert back to a full communistic/feudalisic society.

Actually, because of reforms already in place, they have only one option.

Jan 15, 2014 3:59pm

For a start, you have no idea how much fossil fuel is left... the amount discovered each year is rising exponentially.

Just last year more natural gas/oil was discovered in just one field in South Australia, than exists in Saudi Arabia for instance.

Jan 15, 2014 6:43pm

ummmm... so?

I can't change energy prices and I guarrantee you can't either, so why worry about it?

Now lets take it from a different angle... if we say that Europe and the rest of the world is coming 70% already, with America at 25% and China at 5% = 100% of our energy worldwide.

Lets assume that there's 95 million BBL's of oil being consumed a day currently...

America... 23.75 mill bbl
China... 4.75 mill bbl
Rest of world... 66.5 mill bbl

These are daily rates of usage according to you (I supplied the 95 mill barrels a day figure).

China and India hold 26% of the worlds population, and they are now building and buying cars on an exponentially growing scale. Include the rest of South East Asia and there's another 10% of fast growing economies... 35% of the worlds population which is currently consuming about 8% of the worlds oil/gas/coal production.

Its fair to say that in 15 to 20 years that number will rise to say 50% of global energy demand... I hope so, because Australia will be the major beneficiary.

You have as much hope stopping the world from growing economically as you have of getting an honest man elected to President of America... so why worry about it. You Americans don't give a dam who you elect, you seldom have, and probably never will again.

You gotta adapt or get out of the kitchen.

Jan 15, 2014 7:13pm

I suppose what you really meant is that its OK for America to waste 25% of the energy we produce, but its not OK for China to do so.

The only reason America uses 25% of the worlds energy is because its so dammed cheap.

Jan 14, 2014 8:40pm

Quoting frx_trader

Disliked

Hotels, Roads, some housing are built for foreigners who carry USD and foreign passports. The Chinese are prohibited to enter certain Restaurants, Cafes, Hotels, etc.

Ignored

Hahaha, that was in the 80's of the LAST century, more than (2013-1980) 33 years ago!! LOL

You people REALLY need to get your head out of the sand and get out more. And no, you cannot see Russia from your house in Alaska either! LOL

Jan 15, 2014 9:15pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

As China grows and dwarves the USA in terms of growth and demand the globe's reserves will fail to supply that demand.

Ignored

The reserves won't "fail to supply that demand", but rather prices will rise so that demand meets supply (assuming supply growth is limited).

Jan 16, 2014 8:08am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

Of course, finite resources are infinite. You don't happen to code too do you? I'm on the look out for a genius...

Ignored

I don't recall saying that a finite resource is infinite, but thanks for the genius compliment anyway. The misunderstanding might have arisen out of my use of the words "assuming supply growth is limited". Any scientific or philosophical discourse is framed by assumptions, hence my use of the word. The context is a bit different from its colloquial usage. My usage was meant to qualify that supply growth is CORRECTLY assumed to be limited in the case of crude oil. Furthermore, what economists regard as "supply" is not how much of the resource is in the ground, but how much of it can be produced in a given time frame.

This leads to my main argument against your position that reserves will "fail to supply that demand". What I am saying is that basic economics, the purpose of which is to manage scarce resources, states that prices will rise to the point where demand balances supply (in the case of oil, where supply growth is quite limited). What this means is that prices will rise until they kill enough demand so that it balances supply. Your statement is therefore in stark contrast to the most basic principle of economics.

And yes, I do code, but I doubt you could afford me

.

Jan 16, 2014 11:27am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

You've had two minutes of my time to prove that you're worth debating with. It just didn't work out for you. Shame...

Ignored

Nice cop-out. If you are going to argue against universally accepted economic theory, at least bring something to the table other than quips and insults, lest you look silly.

Jan 16, 2014 11:49am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I could have pointed out and detailed in full the errors in your second paragraph, instead I gifted you the opportunity to correct yourself. You chose to pass up on the opportunity. How's that lack of intellectual curiosity working out for you?

Ignored

I'm always open to new ideas. Please point out the errors.

Jan 16, 2014 5:47pm

Quoting sliqdaddy91

Disliked

Please respond back to this bloke Spread, as I think he makes valid points, and I fail to see where his reasoning is flawed.

Ignored

His silence seems to be speaking volumes.

Jan 17, 2014 9:39am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I decide how, where and when I spend my leisure time on FF. I take a look at a paragraph such as this and just sigh internally. It's embarrassing, yet the poster wants to stick by it and then challenges me to point out the glaring errors in his thinking. I'm done on this thread.

Ignored

My initial challenge to your thinking was in no way meant to be a personal attack, and yet you continually insult my knowledge and intelligence without providing any basis for those insults.

The knowledge one gains by accepting that they are wrong, when they are wrong, far outweighs the embarrassment of actually being wrong.

I would ask you again, politely, to enlighten me. If you can show me where I am wrong, I will gladly accept it, thank you, and move on. If you can't do that, then I would appreciate an apology.

Jan 17, 2014 12:10pm

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

I can see why he cba continuing this thread, look you stated this;

"The purpose of basic economics, is to manage scarce resources."

Then you said;

"What this means is that prices will rise until they kill enough demand so that it balances supply."

Can't you see how flawed that thinking is given the two statements are contradictory? Particularly in relation to the subject originally in SB's post, energy?

Ignored

The resource is managed by varying the price, which in turn affects demand, since there is not much that can be done about the supply. As production dwindles, prices go up, and demand goes down. Where is the contradiction?

Jan 14, 2014 8:38am

Quoting sliqdaddy91

Disliked

You're right, you guys really are growing at 7.5%, the ghost cities, credit crunches, and "booming" middle class hint at a strong Communist nation that does nothing but consume, produce and then rinse and repeat.

Ignored

I have never heard of middle class in China, either they are too small or negligible. Hotels, Roads, some housing are built for foreigners who carry USD and foreign passports. The Chinese are prohibited to enter certain Restaurants, Cafes, Hotels, etc.

Jan 14, 2014 12:25pm

Quoting nanningbob

Disliked

Depends on how you define middle class. If you define it by a Chinese standard it is over 30%. That means the person or family has their own apartment, a vehicle, (not necessarily a car), and has enough money to buy non essentials, like cell phone, computers, nice clothes, can travel on vacation. etc. The number of Chinese that can do that now is over 30% maybe even 40. If you define it by Western standards then it would be less.

Ignored

Interesting story about iron ore and I believe in China economy bubble. I get it why China goods are unbelievable cheap. My prediction based on experience that a Chinese business has 50 years life span on average. Some are longer, some are shorter. So, the bubble may happen in some 10-15 years period, if my calculation is correct. It can happen faster or slower, all depend on actions.

Jan 14, 2014 7:30am

What is this irrational hatred based on?

Quoting 111ForexGuru

Disliked

I have a hatred for China however I must commend them for their position in the global economy. Today almost all companies are getting their goods manufactured in China.(electronics,toys,consumer durables,etc) My personal opinion is that if China faces any economic disaster then, so are all the multi-national companies of other countries facing such a disaster. Its only a matter of time before the chinese take on the services industry of other multi-national companies.
Lets see what happens with this nation.

Ignored

Jan 17, 2014 10:07am

I can see why he cba continuing this thread, look you stated this;

"The purpose of basic economics, is to manage scarce resources."

Then you said;

"What this means is that prices will rise until they kill enough demand so that it balances supply."

Can't you see how flawed that thinking is given the two statements are contradictory? Particularly in relation to the subject originally in SB's post, energy?

Quoting fierceman

Disliked

My initial challenge to your thinking was in no way meant to be a personal attack, and yet you continually insult my knowledge and intelligence without providing any basis for those insults.

The knowledge one gains by accepting that they are wrong, when they are wrong, far outweighs the embarrassment of actually being wrong.

I would ask you again, politely, to enlighten me. If you can show me where I am wrong, I will gladly accept it, thank you, and move on. If you can't do that, then I would appreciate an apology.

Ignored

Jan 18, 2014 7:55am

You have absolutely no proof of that, you're basing your lazy, stereotypical assumption on the wall of conjecture built up by the USA mainstream media.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

Actually, yes they are ... The Chinese stats are more rigged than the US stats.

Ignored

Jan 18, 2014 9:01am

You made the claim not me, the onus is on you to prove it. Where is your bullet proof evidence, non anecdotal, that Chinese data is either less reliable and more corrupted than the USA's?

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

Well hi there. What good for the goose is good for the gander.

Where is your proof ?

The next words from you will be more didactic diatribe as above I presume.

Ignored

Jan 18, 2014 9:32am

I'm not interested in what SB posted. Let's keep this simple, you made this claim:-

"The Chinese stats are more rigged than the US stats."

Now prove it, or just stfu.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

err .. dude. The onus is on you and your buddy.

This is the claim:

"Quoting Spreadbetter
I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity."

Now give me some facts.
And none of that dialectical bullshit.
Just the facts ma'am.

Ignored

Jan 18, 2014 11:47am

So you've nothing to prove your assertion that "China's data is rigged". It's just something you've picked up from the USA mainstream media that you've blindly accepted without any research or investigation. Rather than support your claim you then litter your childish responses with pathetic attempts at misdirection and dissembling.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

This is your piece of "disinformation" not mine ...
When you have your daily afternoon tea with "SB", please tell him to support his claims when pushing both your agenda on FF.
or indeed stfu...

Ignored

Jan 19, 2014 6:16pm

So you can't answer the question because you have no proof. You made a rash statement that you can't back up with facts and in a desperate attempt to row back you now avoid the questions and meander on a weird, disjointed, rambling journey. But your arrogance and weak personality prevents you from manning up, admitting you were wrong and moving on. I'd imagine (as an old bloke) if this is how you act in 'real life' you're an abject failure...

You have zero reputation or credibility on here. Every time I see you post on the new section you eventually descend into troll mode. I'd disappear if I were you.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

The pot calling the kettle black won't do it my friend.
Your pseudo intellectual attitude is endearing but mostly pathetic.

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

So which one is you and which one is spreadbetter ?

Stop playing that dumb holier-than-thou crap. Your game is obvious.

Ignored

Jan 20, 2014 6:21am

You just can't help yourself can you? You suggest reputation and credibility is not an issue on FF (which it is) and yet you're desperately trying to get both the last word and a smart Alec remark in as you exit stage left.

As for the constructive comment you're after the poster who posted it has you on ignore. It has nothing to do with me.

You made the claim that Chinese data was rigged. Prove it. Not anecdotal rumours, or conjecture, just prove it. You can't, we both know it, but rather than just stfu, admit it and slink off you just can't help trolling.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

You are really funny. It was never for me to prove anything.
I am still waiting for a constructive comment for this remark:

"I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity.""

Do you really think anyone has any credibility here? Are you that gullible?
Are all those insults really necessary?
You seem angry.

Ignored

Jan 20, 2014 3:43pm

Your refusal to back up your claim, after numerous opportunities, speaks volumes regarding your embarrassing lack of knowledge and understanding. You are the perfect example of an attention seeking internet troll, well done on that. Enjoy your success, you've earned it....

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

Obviously, you should not get into a debate in which logic is involved.
You will lose.
Your initial assertion was responded to in a similar fashion.
Simple logical fallacy on your part.
You are telling me there is a tea kettle floating in space between Mars and Jupiter. No one can see it.
Now you are asking me to prove it does not exist.
People like you who feed off North Korean propaganda are all the same.
Rather amusing, don't you think?

Ignored

Jan 24, 2014 4:39am

You still not found that proof that China's data is rigged then? We both know you can't as it doesn't exist, so stop it with this bullshit and just move on.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

oh my.. you just can't address the real issue, now can you?

It appears that a bit of pressure makes you spew out insults and put downs.

Now that I have both of you together, I am going to drop a little knowledge on y'all.

This is how you come accross when you are cornered - you regurgitate statements of this type:

"Your dislike of me and those like me is just a manifestation of your own feelings of frustration and inadequacy with regards to your pesonal status in an
evolving and increasingly stratified economic and social landscape."

Now,...

Ignored

Jan 24, 2014 5:28am

Is that it, are you now finished as well as being washed up? You can't provide the proof on China I asked for, I gave you an extra two days to do so. That's all I wanted, but you couldn't provide it, so rather than admit you're wrong you went off on a weird disjointed ramble. No wonder you can't take a dime out of this market. Next time just stfu rather than mouthing off and making yourself look studid.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

You are a funny bunny. You want the last work really bad, don't you?

You and I and your side kick(s) and what you represent we all know very well this is not about "if the chinese economic data is rigged" (excuse me while I laugh here..)

So there....

You can have it.
Have fun with the other 8 year olds.

Until next time... I love to take on bullies. See you soon again at recess.

Ignored

Jan 24, 2014 7:01am

Problems? Nope, not from where I'm sitting, the problems are all yours. You just can't admit you're wrong can you? I'll bet you cling onto losers and cut winners short too. You sad fukcin muppet.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

oh my ... more insults.. I'll have to report you to the head master.
Let's face it. You got some problems bud.
BTW .. how is the recruiting going ?

Ignored

Jan 24, 2014 12:13pm

You really are a strange little paranoid person aren't you? Would you like to illuminate us wrt these conspiracy theories you have? Agendas, recruitment...? Wtf....

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

I am no longer on your ignore list.

I am flattered. Really, I am blushing with appreciation.

So Mr. squeeze needed help and ran to the big brother to beat me up.
That is so funny.
Am I supposed to be impressed by "six figure bonus" ?
.. and go cower in a corner because "you bet I am a total loser at trading" ?

That is so wonderfully in character - and you two together .. stop it now, I am laughing too hard.

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

You two are funny phonies and you have an agenda. Stop fooling...

Ignored

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

More insults. I am hitting a nerve... Ok
You are not doing too well. Are you ?
Scraping the bottom like that you appear like as one sad puppy.
Now you turn the subject to trading ... that is really lame.
You still have not made one intelligent comment since the beginning of our "discussion".

... So how is the recruiting going ?

and as I explained before about muppets :

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

May I call you Waldorf ?

BTW, am I not on your ignore list already ?

Ignored

Jan 15, 2014 3:58am

At least, China has become exporter to the world, building up a huge hoard of foreign currency — $3.3 trillion in cash, and over $1 trillion in U.S. treasury bonds. And the current situation is China's trade balance has exceeded the U.S. Even more interesting is the Chinese start exporting weapons, but not at war. It must be recognized above, including the role of China in the world economy are overshadowing even the OECD. It's amazing.

Jan 13, 2014 8:53pm

Quoting staffpro2

Disliked

usdcad goign to 1.10-1.12 in the next week, goldman sachs is right 98% of the time why bet against them

Ignored

in forex there are just 2 sides, they got it right this time like flipping a coin.

Jan 13, 2014 10:27pm

Quoting 111ForexGuru

Disliked

I have a hatred for China however I must commend them for their position in the global economy. Today almost all companies are getting their goods manufactured in China.(electronics,toys,consumer durables,etc) My personal opinion is that if China faces any economic disaster then, so are all the multi-national companies of other countries facing such a disaster. Its only a matter of time before the chinese take on the services industry of other multi-national companies.
Lets see what happens with this nation.

Ignored

agree

to many idea already about euro crash, US crash, china crash, rice cooker crash

Jan 13, 2014 8:21pm

they have enough surplus cash and gold to cover it if it does

Jan 15, 2014 8:11pm — Edited

Lol...
This will be good.

For starters, he's a Pom not a Yank...

I'll hang around for the fireworks...

Jan 29, 2014 4:14am

Oh crikey, can I have the last word or is that seat taken.

Jan 15, 2014 8:25pm

oh shit, not a bloody pommie.

Its the bloody Poms that sold us down river into Statutory slavery... them and the friggin vatican.

Jan 20, 2014 8:27pm

Could you guys just hide your ego for a while and be more like nanningbob. Great info nanningbob. I don't live in China but I have same conclusions as you. Your infos made my china picture even more clear and closer to reality. Thank you for sharing your observations :-)

Jan 16, 2014 8:46am

Sarcasm is lost on ME? Read again please. Might be a good idea to address my actual argument too.

Jan 13, 2014 8:35pm

usdcad goign to 1.10-1.12 in the next week, goldman sachs is right 98% of the time why bet against them

Jan 13, 2014 7:50pm

if the current news trend continues it maybe will,
everything is a bubble and bad sentiment can pop it.

Jan 13, 2014 7:56pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

LOL....you Americans wish......

Ignored

You're right, you guys really are growing at 7.5%, the ghost cities, credit crunches, and "booming" middle class hint at a strong Communist nation that does nothing but consume, produce and then rinse and repeat.

Jan 13, 2014 10:13pm

I have a hatred for China however I must commend them for their position in the global economy. Today almost all companies are getting their goods manufactured in China.(electronics,toys,consumer durables,etc) My personal opinion is that if China faces any economic disaster then, so are all the multi-national companies of other countries facing such a disaster. Its only a matter of time before the chinese take on the services industry of other multi-national companies.
Lets see what happens with this nation.

Jan 14, 2014 6:36am — Edited

Quoting nanningbob

Disliked

No they dont. They have had three bank credit crunches in 2013 and they are running out of room to cover those. They are buried in debt on the local and provincial level far beyond what they can cover. Their 8-10% growth rate covered these warts up but now that their growth level is going to 7% and possibly lower they are being exposed. Just look at the AUD price and you can see the lack of Chinese imports of AUD products. This was the first bubble to burst. If it levels they will survive but if you see the AUD tank more that is the one truth they...

Ignored

You really should do your research, Aust. exported record amount of iron ore to China in 2013

So AUD not sinking because of export's but more to do with price of minerals and not to mention a very over valued AUD from US FED manipulation of it's ccy!

O and China doesn't need to buy gold as it's the biggest gold producer in the world that doesn't export 1 ounce of it!

Jan 14, 2014 7:33am

I always enjoy the "pfftt, you can't believe any of the stats that come out of China as they're all rigged" comments, whereas the USA is a model of probity.

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Lol...
And you think anti USA positions are biased.
Do you have any idea what they are doing with these supposed Ghost cities? The idea these cities will "apparently never be filled" is a figment of your pathetic MSM's imagination.
China has a long way to go to improve their quality but in transforming their economy, they are just getting started, and you are calling for a crash along with the cnbc's and nbc's lol.
Meanwhile, what's happening in your own backyard, nice to see your govt back up and running again.

Typical....

You had better...

Ignored

Jan 14, 2014 8:02am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

What is this irrational hatred based on?

Ignored

Well to be very honest , prejudice is mostly due to the media hype from my childhood which labelled China as a very fierce country. Another reason for prejudice is due to my friend circle of many Tibetans who were against Chinese for invasion of Tibet. And lastly for the invasion of Indian space in Arunachal Pradesh.

However my trading is not based on my prejudice and I believe that China is one country that can compete with US or UK or any other so called super-powers in business/war/etc.

Jan 14, 2014 9:12am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Lol...
And you think anti USA positions are biased.
Do you have any idea what they are doing with these supposed Ghost cities? The idea these cities will "apparently never be filled" is a figment of your pathetic MSM's imagination.
China has a long way to go to improve their quality but in transforming their economy, they are just getting started, and you are calling for a crash along with the cnbc's and nbc's lol.
Meanwhile, what's happening in your own backyard, nice to see your govt back up and running again.

Typical....

You had better...

Ignored

Aren't CNBC, NBC, as well as most banks/brokers bullish of China? Lol, not sure what you mean when you say I am following the media because I am fairly certain I am in the minority when it comes to my beliefs of a "fraudulent" China and it's manipulative ways.

Haha and I laugh at you when you accuse me of being biased for the US, as I trade what I believe and TO ME the US economy is outpacing everyone else. Although any kind of biased accusations coming from you is fuk all, simply because it is evident how you are clearly one of the most biased gents on this site against the US.

How's your cable to the moon doing? "Broken out of 4 year consolidation phase"...come off it, it needs to get through ~1.6680 ish to be considered "broken out".

Jan 14, 2014 12:13pm

^Wow. What a good read. Thanks a lot nanningbob. So someone who lives and works in China provides some good insight....might I add, he sounds quite bearish : )

haha I love this site....Im very bearish of China, Eurozone, and the Commodity Currencies.

Cheers let's see how we get on

Jan 14, 2014 1:00pm

Just to add that the Chinese tourist is the biggest spender in the UK, and in terms of immigration they're the ones made most welcome in the uk and the least put off by the non EU freedom of movement restrictions, they're very willing to pay to enter and stay in the uk. Iirc it was approx 50K migrated to the UK in 2013, outstripping any other immigrants by some distance.

Quoting nanningbob

Disliked

Depends on how you define middle class. If you define it by a Chinese standard it is over 30%. That means the person or family has their own apartment, a vehicle, (not necessarily a car), and has enough money to buy non essentials, like cell phone, computers, nice clothes, can travel on vacation. etc. The number of Chinese that can do that now is over 30% maybe even 40. If you define it by Western standards then it would be less.

Ignored

Jan 14, 2014 4:21pm

Quoting nanningbob

Disliked

Be very careful who you are talking to. I actually live, work, and do business in China and have survived for 12 years here and made money. So I know China. You mentioned that I need to do my research on iron so I will respond to you on the iron industry.

China has a huge problem with over production/over capacity of its industries. I will take iron as the example. Comrade A is a leader of his city or region. He sees comrade B doing well and getting promotions and press in the party. He is also driving one heck of a luxury car. Comrade B is moving...

Ignored

Yes I believe you are correct to a certain degree that China has over production as I have realized this threw research and media commentary and I think China is putting in some nice controls for this over the last year or so!

But having said that the comment i made off your quote regarding AUD is a fact and I will say it again! (just google it I'm sure you will find this claim to be true and if you don't I can certainly find a few link's for ya)

Last year Aust. exported more iron ore to China then ever before, 100% fact and this is coming from Aust. figures so I do believe the figure's to be correct!

I use Iron ore as the example as that's Aust. biggest export of raw material to China instead of say copper,lead,zinc or even mineral sand's!

Although I do believe China will cut back it's production eventually It certainly hasn't yet as the figures show. So until I see a decline in Iron ore export's from Aust. to china and not over a 1year basis but over say a 5year basis Aust. should still be on a firm footing which takes me to the second point I made about material prices and not the quantity of export affecting the AUD!

Now here's something for all you China bear's out there to think about, There's talk that China is set to cut out the one child per family policy so all these ghost city's could very much be over populated in decades to come!

I would appreciate if you could fill in the details about this claim nanningbob as you live in China and as an outsider it's hard for me to get the correct info off the street on this subject?

Jan 15, 2014 2:39am

Quoting nanningbob

Disliked

They say that China is consuming over 60% of the luxury market at this time. The well off Chinese person is very interested in investing overseas and other countries to diversify their wealth. Their options are limited in China because the good stuff is own and controlled by the party and real estate is priced so high it is becoming very risky to invest further in it. For example in many major cities property /housing is 40x the average income. Very few can afford to buy anymore in the big cities. real estate investment is now going on in the countryside....

Ignored

Nice writing nanningbob, nice explanations.

Jan 15, 2014 5:00am

One of the real and present dangers the global community faces wrt to China is often ignored by the MSM, energy consumption. The USA is 5% of the global population yet consumes 25% of the available fossil fuel energy. If China reaches a pro rata consumption rate for its one billion population they'd require circa 50% of the available fossil fuel left.

A truly terrifying situation that could result in the easily reached fossil fuels being extracted at a far quicker rate than previously thought.

Inside this century, perhaps in as little as 30 years, China's growth will become the number one problem in terms of sustainability and more critically survival. And short of expelling them from world energy markets there's no answer to the insoluble problem...

Jan 15, 2014 5:04pm

I'll keep the maths simple -

USA population of 300 million currently use 25% of energy.

China population 1 billion currently use 5% of energy.

As China grows and dwarves the USA in terms of growth and demand the globe's reserves will fail to supply that demand. Fracking in the USA and UK and tar sand extraction in Canada are the ultimate expression of desperation.

You also need to understand the notion of easy recoverable reserves, which tar sands aren't. The majority of the easy recoverable has been or is being extracted, in your head space do you take on board the damage that'll have on world energy prices over the next few decades?

Quoting pt49

Disliked

For a start, you have no idea how much fossil fuel is left... the amount discovered each year is rising exponentially.

Just last year more natural gas/oil was discovered in just one field in South Australia, than exists in Saudi Arabia for instance.

Ignored

Jan 16, 2014 4:08am

Sorry if your popcorn got cold waiting mate, I read his replies last night, sighed and moved on. Now that you've discovered an untapped lake of oil as big as the Atlantic in your country the globe's imminent energy crisis is solved :/sarc

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Lol...
This will be good.

For starters, he's a Pom not a Yank...

I'll hang around for the fireworks...

Ignored

Jan 16, 2014 4:11am

Of course, finite resources are infinite. You don't happen to code too do you? I'm on the look out for a genius...

Quoting fierceman

Disliked

The reserves won't "fail to supply that demand", but rather prices will rise so that demand meets supply (assuming supply growth is limited).

Ignored

Jan 16, 2014 5:22am

In terms of symbolism it represents an end of days desperation; polluting billions of gallons of water on an adventure that may only result in (at best) 3 years supply in of gas in the UK is fubar IMO. In the uk our energy supply and security is fukced, the fact that a huge proportion of our nat gas comes in liquid form via tankers from Qatar illustrates what a huge issue we're facing here on these barren windswept isles.

The French company Total is banned from fracking in France where it's unlawful, the UK welcomed them with open arms, I'm sure if we looked hard enough we'd find links to Total in our government.

As for the results and damage in the USA, there's plenty of evidence out there wrt the cost benefit analysis and the damage to water tables, underground reservoirs etc, the film gasland is a good starting point IMO.

The safe water drinking act has also been a debating point recently, especially given the secrecy surrounding the poisons the developers are using.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fracturing_Responsibility_and_Awareness_of_Chemicals_Act

If there is one 'bonus' with domestic fracking then the cessation of foreign crusades to steal others' mineral rights and resources may be it, has for example the Obama admin realised that a tipping point been reached whereby the costs of resource wars now outweigh the benefits? Therefore the USA will now concentrate on its domestic energy supplies?

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

What do you know about Fracking?
I'm not reading good things about it but I'm aware there are always 2 sides to a debate

Ignored

Jan 16, 2014 8:22am

Obviously sarcasm is lost on you. If you can't see the deep fundamental flaws in your second paragraph then I'd politely suggest your 'affordability' can be met in any establishment where you'd be trained to ask; "would you like fries with that?"

Quoting fierceman

Disliked

I don't recall saying that a finite resource is infinite, but thanks for the genius compliment anyway. The misunderstanding might have arisen out of my use of the words "assuming supply growth is limited". Any scientific or philosophical discourse is framed by assumptions, hence my use of the word. The context is a bit different from its colloquial usage. My usage was meant to qualify that supply growth is CORRECTLY assumed to be limited in the case of crude oil. Furthermore, what economists regard as "supply" is not how much of the resource is...

Ignored

Jan 16, 2014 10:15am

You've had two minutes of my time to prove that you're worth debating with. It just didn't work out for you. Shame...

Quoting fierceman

Disliked

Sarcasm is lost on ME? Read again please. Might be a good idea to address my actual argument too.

Ignored

Jan 16, 2014 11:44am

I could have pointed out and detailed in full the errors in your second paragraph, instead I gifted you the opportunity to correct yourself. You chose to pass up on the opportunity. How's that lack of intellectual curiosity working out for you?

Quoting fierceman

Disliked

Nice cop-out. If you are going to argue against universally accepted economic theory, at least bring something to the table other than quips and insults, lest you look silly.

Ignored

Jan 16, 2014 12:01pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I could have pointed out and detailed in full the errors in your second paragraph, instead I gifted you the opportunity to correct yourself. You chose to pass up on the opportunity. How's that lack of intellectual curiosity working out for you?

Ignored

Quoting fierceman

Disliked

I'm always open to new ideas. Please point out the errors.

Ignored

Please respond back to this bloke Spread, as I think he makes valid points, and I fail to see where his reasoning is flawed.

For what it is worth, this has turned out to be a great thread...and to mention the Aussie short on a variety of crosses (swing traders pay day ftw) solidifies my belief in a China that has troubles ahead : )

Jan 17, 2014 3:28am

I decide how, where and when I spend my leisure time on FF. I take a look at a paragraph such as this and just sigh internally. It's embarrassing, yet the poster wants to stick by it and then challenges me to point out the glaring errors in his thinking. I'm done on this thread.

This leads to my main argument against your position that reserves will "fail to supply that demand". What I am saying is that basic economics, the purpose of which is to manage scarce resources, states that prices will rise to the point where demand balances supply (in the case of oil, where supply growth is quite limited). What this means is that prices will rise until they kill enough demand so that it balances supply. Your statement is therefore in stark contrast to the most basic principle of economics.

Quoting sliqdaddy91

Disliked

Please respond back to this bloke Spread, as I think he makes valid points, and I fail to see where his reasoning is flawed.

For what it is worth, this has turned out to be a great thread...and to mention the Aussie short on a variety of crosses (swing traders pay day ftw) solidifies my belief in a China that has troubles ahead : )

Ignored

Jan 20, 2014 5:49am

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

You are really funny. It was never for me to prove anything.
Do you really think anyone has any credibility here? Are you that gullible?
Are all those insults really necessary?
You seem angry.

Ignored

Well stop saying BS if you can't back it up!

Dame jank's have the intelligence of a puppy LOL

US has the most corrupt, dysfunctional government in the world bar none! ROFL

Jan 20, 2014 3:49pm

In his own sad demented way he's as much of a nuisance and troll as the Nigerian. What a pitiful existence these characters must lead.

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Your refusal to back up your claim, after numerous opportunities, speaks volumes regarding your embarrassing lack of knowledge and understanding. You are the perfect example of an attention seeking internet troll, well done on that. Enjoy your success, you've earned it....

Ignored

Jan 21, 2014 5:31am

Quoting boon2
Well stop saying BS if you can't back it up!

Dame jank's have the intelligence of a puppy LOL

US has the most corrupt, dysfunctional government in the world bar none! ROFL

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

So you never go see a movie or use any technology (Made in China (: ) ... and the list is long very long.

BTW, you are an hypocrite? are you not? after all Forex Factory is a U.S. company.

Ignored

Your reply to my post makes no sense to me?

It's as if you quoted my post and your reply is on a different subject?

I'll try and make myself clear, I believe China's data (which is sketchy at best) more than any data that comes out of the US which is outright manipulated,if you can't see this you really shouldn't be trading the FX majors!

Now to get off subject, you are right I don't go out and watch movies( I simple have better more constructive thing's to do in my limited spear time) but I do use technology and I have quite a bit of it,from laptop's to watches and I don't really care where it is made I simply buy what I think is the best quality to suit my need's!

I think you are really going a bit far saying FF is a company and even if it is it's very small and deferentially not something I would invest in! LOL

So am I a hypocrite? I don't think so and I stand by my word's (unlike you) that I think everyone on FF already know by now but for those that don't I'll say it again, US has the most corrupt, dysfunctional government in the world bar none!

Jan 21, 2014 12:24pm

Quoting pt49

Disliked

Where the AUD goes, so goes Gold... or visa versa, take your pick.

And as bob baby pointed out, the Australia (and the AUD) are tied at the crotch to China... just like lovers who hate each other.

China, AUD, Gold... the trifecta.

When China gets a weepy nose, Australia gets the Flu... and Gold follows the AUD.

Take a look at history.

The AUD is 80% correlated to Gold, 2nd only to the NZD at 88%.

Ignored

I think, "Where the Gold goes, so goes AUD".

Jan 24, 2014 10:41am

I take you off ignore to see what you're up to. More of the same I see, avoiding the question posed, scrambling around for a desperate foothold and trolling. It's quite a peculiar character trait you have there not admitting you're wrong. I'm with squeeze I'll bet you're a total loser at trading.

Oh, as for squeeze not doing well that's amusing. I wish I was a quid behind his six figure bonus at Xmas.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

More insults. I am hitting a nerve... Ok
You are not doing too well. Are you ?
Scraping the bottom like that you appear like as one sad puppy.
Now you turn the subject to trading ... that is really lame.
You still have not made one intelligent comment since the beginning of our "discussion".

... So how is the recruiting going ?

and as I explained before about muppets :

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

May I call you Waldorf ?

BTW, am I not on your ignore list already ?

Ignored

Jan 24, 2014 12:09pm

So is paranoia also part of your diagnosis and illness? You're seeing agendas, thinking posters are "recruiting", now you're feeling insecure, envious and "ganged up on". And still you can't answer a simple question, or admit you're wrong. That brittle personality and equally fragile character must have served you well in your career choices, leading you to your peak - trolling on Internet forums.

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

I am no longer on your ignore list.

I am flattered. Really, I am blushing with appreciation.

So Mr. squeeze needed help and ran to the big brother to beat me up.
That is so funny.
Am I supposed to be impressed by "six figure bonus" ?
.. and go cower in a corner because "you bet I am a total loser at trading" ?

That is so wonderfully in character - and you two together .. stop it now, I am laughing too hard.

http://muppet.wikia.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf

You two are funny phonies and you have an agenda. Stop fooling...

Ignored

Jan 13, 2014 6:49pm

Yes.

Jan 14, 2014 3:45pm

Haha ok Ill-b-back lets see what happens. We have different stances on multiple economies it seems. Cheers

Trader#722B

Jan 16, 2014 4:29am

Quoting nanningbob

Disliked

No they dont. They have had three bank credit crunches in 2013 and they are running out of room to cover those. They are buried in debt on the local and provincial level far beyond what they can cover. Their 8-10% growth rate covered these warts up but now that their growth level is going to 7% and possibly lower they are being exposed. Just look at the AUD price and you can see the lack of Chinese imports of AUD products. This was the first bubble to burst. If it levels they will survive but if you see the AUD tank more that is the one truth they...

Ignored

It Couldn't be put any simpler!!! salute II

Trader#898C

Jan 17, 2014 4:42am

thanks. Good read. China maybe will get bubbled but chinese won't die. Now is new era, what you have we have. but what you don have, we do have. that is people. we are too many in number, inland or oversea. wait and see if china get bubbled and we ask the you to pay back your debt. Guess you will get bubbled too.

Jan 20, 2014 5:44am

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

Actually, yes they are ... The Chinese stats are more rigged than the US stats.

Ignored

BS you are full of it!

Jan 20, 2014 6:58am

America stumbles and stumbles until China makes yuan the strongest currency as well as official currency in the world. You people can see now what Communists can do.

Jan 24, 2014 4:20am

I see hatred among people is advancing. Especially in democratic countries.

Trader#AB60

Jan 13, 2014 7:08pm

LOL....you Americans wish......

Trader#FE54

Jan 14, 2014 12:41am

will china allow that to happen? there you go.

Story Stats

Jan 13, 2014 6:47pm
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