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it's a small matter

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  • #41
  • Jan 19, 2014 8:10am Jan 19, 2014 8:10am
nzd charts did not attach to last nights post...... will leave the nzdusd alone......

have high hopes for this week..... but will politely accept less....h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpyweekly 1 182.png Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzdweekly 1 18.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdchfweekly 1 18.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdweekly 1 18.png Size: 82 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #42
  • Jan 19, 2014 12:05pm Jan 19, 2014 12:05pm
Your journal trades have inspired me to try a few weekly and monthly chart trades. Good stuff...
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #43
  • Jan 19, 2014 1:11pm Jan 19, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey saint..... i'm kinda takin a break from trading during december also..... yeah eg is on my radar screen..... thought it might make visit .8500 but now not sure..... keep expecting the ecb to come out with a plan that would rock the euro..... .....
....h //------
hey hope u r doing good, your explorer saying so.
EURGBP fell short of hitting 8500 and slowly back to 8200. Didn't trade the whole move down (was slow) but small shorts helped.
Trading it? i am not as of now. Not getting the feel.

NZD ofc is good to trade coming times. Me too looking forward. Lets See
Regards
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #44
  • Jan 19, 2014 3:54pm Jan 19, 2014 3:54pm
Hey, can't believe I missed your thread. Good stuff as always.
  • #45
  • Jan 19, 2014 4:30pm Jan 19, 2014 4:30pm
hey calderone ..... thanks.....h
//---

hey saint..... i'm out of the eurgbp now.... made 23 trades over past few weeks.....

my nzd trades will live or die in the rbnz rate debate this week and any subsequent play on words..... those trades alone should move the account +/- 5000 this week..... and it's a 50 50 shot as to which way they will move it......h
//----

hey joe..... it's darn hard for me to hold a trade over a month..... and very very few can i hold over a year...... but's actually quite easy for me to trade 60 and 240 minute charts in the weekly and monthly overall direction..... i'm lookin at the 4 hour nzd charts this week......h

//------
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdchfh4 1 20.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzdh4 1 20.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpyh4 1 20.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdh4 1 20.png Size: 69 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #46
  • Jan 20, 2014 4:57pm Jan 20, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting hayseed
nzd..... buying the nzd will be on my mind next week.... this is due both to favorable weekly technical outlook, subject to change of course, and possible rbnz rate rhetoric this wednesday..... maximizing the move will not be important..... first wave goes in sunday.......h
//----

oppps...... i was lookin at the wrong week on the calender..... rbnz rate date is next week.....

just let the market buy back a whole pack of nzd orders .... will reenter on retracement of past 20 bars highest high and lowest low..... in the manner shown in the charts above..... will a bit more aggressive on lot size this go round....

no rush...... and no worrys..... as they say downunder.....h
//-----
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #47
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:55pm Jan 20, 2014 7:55pm
hey hey hayseed, good to see your work here

do you have a view on AUDUSD wkly?

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-21_1153.png Size: 14 KB
  • #48
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:08pm Jan 20, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting PeterE
hey hey hayseed, good to see your work here do you have a view on AUDUSD wkly? .
//----

hey peter..... thanks...... i,m out of the audusd in every account now...... it's for sure not something that i am interested in buying, at least for the next few months..... my short term plan is to wait for a retrace of last weeks fall to re-short it.... or more preferably from the mid 90's ......

it's so oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly chart, i'm too chicken to short it at todays price...... and it's hard to believe we've seen the low yet.....

//----

btw, your the reason this explorer is public...... figured it was time to stop teasin.............

course my best explorers must stay private...........h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #49
  • Edited Jan 21, 2014 5:52pm Jan 20, 2014 10:28pm | Edited Jan 21, 2014 5:52pm
well i'm glad you started........and i'm sure there will be no complaints from any if you only give access to your "C" grade explorer......the one that averages a mere +40% mth at low risk (sigh)


Quoting hayseed
{quote} ---- btw, your the reason this explorer is public...... figured it was time to stop teasin............. course my best explorers must stay private...........h
  • #50
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:33am Jan 21, 2014 9:33am
usdjpy hit dead on the 'x' in the 240 chart posted above..... currently almost 3 standard lots short the 'jpy'...... any yen strength relative to other markets weakness, dow, ftse, cac , nikkie and such, could easily send my jpy trades 200 pips against me..... or more.....

nothing has changed..... will be adding longs on excessive weakness.......

for the third time, possible +/- 4000 equity swings...... usdjpy at 103 would be a welcomed sight..... easy to see it at 101..... prepared for 99.....h

//----

it fell thru the cross while writing this....... cowboy up.....h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4 1 21.png Size: 51 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #51
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:12pm Jan 21, 2014 2:12pm
do you place stops when you place a trade, or are you working that out later on?
and how does your RR look for your trades, does RR even matter to you?

..........just curious about your "style"
  • #52
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:30pm Jan 21, 2014 8:30pm
hey peter..... usually there are too many orders to place targets individually so i run ea's of the visual line type, where the stops and profit targets are the draggable lines..... if the price moves past the lines, trades close.... the euraud chart below is a good example.....
//-----

yes risk/reward matters to me but my view of it is quite different..... it involves far more than pips or dollars.... i factor in things like probability, win/loss ratio and other such items .....

would a risk to reward of 299 to 1 be necessarily bad..... risking 299 pips to make 1...... sounds bad.... but is it .....

in the usdjpy chart below you can see the bottom figure on the right says true risk 1111.02..... my view is that basic pip or $ risk/reward ratio might be set when the order is placed but from that point on it is constantly changing..... as the trade nears the profit target the ratio gets progressively worse.....

we might send in a order with a 100 pip stop loss and a 200 pip profit target and call that a 1:2 risk to reward.... but what if that pair moves to 1 pip shy of the profit target..... what is the true risk/reward then......

aren't we now effectively risking 299 pips to make 1......h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: true risk.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: stoploss.png Size: 61 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #53
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:41pm Jan 22, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting PeterE
I see what you mean re RR changing over time. However I'm thinking more when placing the trade. If your target is high probability, is RR 2:1 "bad"? And does aiming 1:1 or greater, equate to fewer fills/diminished profits.
High probability targets and the rules can be bent a little I think.
//----

hey peter..... i try to go in with a maximum number of lots in mind but an unknown amount of orders.... the original order will usually be a 1:1 risk to reward.... but the orders that follow will be different..... this largely due to some orders might be placed in a add to winner fashion.... quite often i'll have stop orders all the way to the first orders profit target.....

as you can imagine that last order , just before the profit target is hit, will have a terrible r:r compared to the first...... if my win/loss ratio is extremely high, i feel comfortable doing this.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #54
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:08pm Jan 25, 2014 4:08pm
last week could best described as an exercise in 'stoploss'......

first, better than expected gbp news sent those trades hard against me ...... end result stoploss closed all....

second, better than expected eur news sent those trades straight to stoploss.....

third, world market weakness sent the yen up, cad and nzd bit the dust......

remaining trades are usdjpy, those should stand..... i have open usdjpy trades all the way down to below 78.......

all things considered, do not expect much activity for rest of the month.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #55
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:29pm Jan 25, 2014 4:29pm
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #56
  • Edited Jan 27, 2014 2:34am Jan 26, 2014 1:13pm | Edited Jan 27, 2014 2:34am
Quoting hayseed
last week could best described as an exercise in 'stoploss'...... first, better than expected gbp news sent those trades hard against me ...... end result stoploss closed all.... second, better than expected eur news sent those trades straight to stoploss..... third, world market weakness sent the yen up, cad and nzd bit the dust...... remaining trades are usdjpy, those should stand..... i have open usdjpy trades all the way down to below 78....... all things considered, do not expect much activity for rest of the month.....h
Hey, i follow your journal from time to time as you are one of the few good traders in this website, good work!
Many good traders did get ripped from last week markets, very wild very crazy, and very dramatic.

I don't know if something big is cooking (just watch on emerging markets situations, venezuela, argentina, brazil, mexico, and per contagion all the other global markets), but if that's the case (again i don't know if it's the case!), things may get very wild!
I see you have some usdjpy trades, be careful with that ones.

Wish you all the best, spaceduck
  • #57
  • Feb 8, 2014 8:40am Feb 8, 2014 8:40am
Quoting spaceduck
I see you have some usdjpy trades, be careful with that ones. Wish you all the best, spaceduck
//----

hey spaceduck....... thanks....... my short yen trades, ie long usdjpy, nzdjpy and such, are spread across many accounts....... some of those trades are over 1.5 years old..... so the losses seen here are only a small part of the total damage the strong yen has done over past 10 days.......

large equity swings are something i'm accustomed to......

however enough is enough..... and it almost appears the charts will be turning in my favor over the next 10 days...... if so, i should be more than able make up for the set backs......

have high hopes for next week...... trades might be few but charts should begin offering me worthwhile entrys......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #58
  • May 14, 2014 6:07pm May 14, 2014 6:07pm
[quote} umar345.... where we set Tp of eurcad ..... and SL ??. thank you[/quote]
//----

hey umar.... got your message...... we can not pm charts so will answer here.....

//----

my preference is to short the eurcad..... i believe the top was set back in march at 1.5600..... all indicators, both technical and fundamental, point to further weakness.... would expect a partial retracement of the past 2 weeks....

my near term target would be 1.47...... the weekly 50 ma, which is roughly at 1.44 and climbing, the lower longer uptrend line and the short term downtrend line all seem to be aiming at 1.47.... my stoploss would depend on lot size, but a rough idea would be 1.5320 ....

the average daily zigzag is less than 300 and current length is 400.... so odds favor a bounce soon.....

i'm out of the eurcad now, but will short any meaningful bounce..... it would be difficult for me to short at todays price......

will upload some indicators/ea's tonite that might be of value.....h

//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: umar week audcad.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: umar daily.png Size: 74 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #59
  • May 14, 2014 8:53pm May 14, 2014 8:53pm
Quoting hayseed
umar345[/url].... will upload some indicators/ea's tonite that might be of value.....h //----- {image} {image}
Hayseed,
I like that your chart shows on the bottom (" Below daily Pivot, below Weekly" )

Is there any way possible to have this only info on my chart. I use SDX TZ Pivot indicator with adjusted time, but it does not show me Weekly pivots.

If you can answer, would be grateful.
  • #60
  • May 16, 2014 3:04pm May 16, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting RabbitWolf
Is there any way possible to have this only info on my chart.
//----

hey rabbit..... almost anything can be placed on the chart.... we would need to know the exact indicator, the mq4, you are using because there are so many different sdx tz pivot variations.....

or, as in my case, you could just use the standard pivot math and place the results in text, or comment, on your chart.....

post pivot indicator here in the platform tech section so we can tell more.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
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