Hard Way, Easy Way

no, gained a little progress after that post. now i trade on levels. all horizontal levels on the charts. price simply reacts to them. but still, sell expensive, buy cheap, that's core, i think.

I think most people in the beginning think about making couple great trades, rest in a paradise with a sexy chick pouring you margarita... dreams overtake reality. So we become aggressive, overconfident, thus leveraging up big, ignore risk management... which leads to A. you get lucky and fuck up next time... or B. don't get lucky this time, and reload and blow up.

The failure stats from pit traders in the 80s are similar to retail stats I believe... bunch of ultra aggressive guys who use their home as collateral to lev up and trade day in and out... watch 'floored' - a good quote i remember from the guy who's obsessed with cigars... i paraphrase here... 'lots of guys have made more money than I have, but for 1 reason or another, they lost it in the end'

Also look at successful poker players... Tom Dwan... that kid is in his 20s... though I don't know his whole story, but he managed to build to millions from basically scratch... maybe it's a good idea to look at how he did it. He clearly has talent and edge, and doesn't hesitate to take actual risk when opportunity arrives... that's only way I know to get that exponential climb in p/l curve... through variable betting, bet bigger on better opportunities and less when edge is not clear.. b/c you are forced to make some type of bet in poker every round via ante w/e... but for trading we don't have to.

So you either develop a strategy / mindset to play this game smart for the long haul or literally risk blowing up but catch a few lucky trades and *NEVER PLAY AGAIN*.

Choice is clear...

I believe that sometimes we have to throw the sappy, overly optimistic sentiments you typically find in the 'Rookie Talk' section out the window.

"We can do it!", one rookie said. "Yea! We just have to put in the thousands of hours of screen time and we'll be consistent! Rome wasn't built in a day after all!", shouted the other as he winked at his friend. Holding hands they skipped to the library to study price action under a giant rainbow.

How about we face the cold hard facts? We are playing in an arena were probability and momentum are paramount and can change directions at the drop of a hat. If you have any illusions about making a living tommrow off of trading just forget them. Focus on your life. Go back to school. Concentrate on your career. Create a foundation for yourself so that if one day you do actually decide to go live, you have the funding necessary to do so. In the beginning you cannot look at Forex as anything but a hobby that could become an investment platform and eventually a form of income. Most rookies are searching for a non-existent Holy Grail or method that will allow them to be consistently successful month after month.

When you have a job, put in the hours and perform, 100% of the time you will get paid at the end of the week. Hell, if you work in corporate America, you can work from home 3-4 days a week and not do anything and still 100% of the time get paid at the end of the week. It is the biggest arbitrage regarding return on effort I've ever seen. However, you can spend 80-90 hours a week studying Forex and still have a negative P/L at the end of the week.

With that said it is not all negative. In my opinion, any investment platform is no different than a casino and the way we "trade" at the retail level is no different than gambling. We can have glorious conversations about Brownian motion, Weiner processes and random walk but at the end of the day when we hit 'Buy' or 'Sell' and only have one leg in the trade; we are gambling.

But is that so wrong? As long as you understand the risks of losing your wager, your investment capital, anything is possible. Maybe one day you can hit that string of trades to make you a millionaire. So forget about trading for a living; discard any optimism you may have about Forex or anywhere else you "invest" or gamble. Focus on building wealth elsewhere so that maybe one day you will have that 100K to dabble in Forex and then a couple of lights at the end of the tunnel may start to come through all the debris blocking the exit.

Nice post Orientxpress.

This was said before it happened. Since the swing took place, I am adding shorts on pullbacks around S/R near rounded numbers. The core position opened at 1.3855 is now multiplied by 12 (average of 21 short positions) , every add on is opened only when the risk of the previous one is covered. One must wait for catalysts like unexpected news to get a better price before entering (like the one at 1.3700). I exit only when my bullish/bearish conviction starts to wane. I am holding the same kind of position on UsdJpy from 77.00 or so (before Abenomics). hope this help.

LOL, well written and yes, nearly all the newbies make the same mistake. The ones who learn to practice MM and not to over-leverage, are the ones who stay in for the long haul..

I remember a quote from watching couple video of Anton Kriel long long ago..(ex goldman macro long/short trader, now retired) ... which he says "he doesn't know any successful trader who doesn't paid a salary". He now has he's own trading school now which teaches wanna be traders to trade like hedge funds using a top down approach, diversification, long/short portfolio. etc...

He basically looks down at the intraday trading, arcades... and believes trading is for building wealth and not for income. For income, he recommends buying some high yield dividend stocks. For trading, end goal is to grow your 'fund' in multiples before you retire and sell it. He holds lots of merit in his words, but obviously there are exceptions to everything he says.

Anton's aim is obviously striving for those who wants be an actual big time hedge fund manager, in which due to size of fund, have to use that kind of approach to the market.

For regular Joe who just wants to sustain itself, trading should be treated as a business, as meticulous as possible. Being patient, using right risk management protocol, being aggressive / defensive when market tells you to are the keys to success.

Just like anything... it requires enormous amt of dedicated practice, critical feedback and emotional control.

There are lots of advantages to not have over 250m aum such as a hedge fund, you can get away with liquidity risks that they can't, and smartly maneuver in and out like a parasite.

But think about how many times a fly simply gets squished by a human palm.... too greedy you end up killed, too fearful, you starve to death.

nice post,

however, for this part, it is a rather valid attitude, if a new trader seriously takes 1000 hours screen time. in fact, 99% new traders don't take this path and hence fail finally.

1000 hours is like 3 hours per day for almost 3 years. it is really some stunning efforts separate a star from dusts.

i did only 300 hours, i estimate. and i see the huge difference already.

It all comes down to what the trader does during the hours and how well they are able to apply what they have picked up ..

It comes down to trying new things till something sticks, don't waste much time, on something you can't trade live, no matter how good it looks history wise.


If you can't see / trust the setups live, try something else.

No arguments here..and if a trader spends countless hours reviewing charts but can't make a single pip profit, something's wrong..

Yes, agree with u. This strategy is one of the most easiest for my suppose.

LOL that takes me back to my first run with a live account as a newbie - Yes, I was one of those idjits who opted to go live before the demo and can tell you that the countless hours staring at the screen sure did not net me any pips other than a splitting headache, live and learn.

it is kind of unbelievable that one person who has been doing one thing for 9 years never really mediated how to do it in the right way. yeah, i'm that idiot. fundamentally, i didn't know it till today.

it is not about if the trades turned right or wrong by my prediction. it is about i do everything that is correct to do, with an aim at reaching ultimate 'correctness' (or excellency?).

i did know 'this concept', but knowing and doing are two different things, which can really 5uck my d1ck off...... yeah, for 9 years....... fuck, this thing is simply not different from living.

Let's review what kind of "trader" we are talking about. "Traders" using other people's money are not "traders", they are salesmen. Most of Wall Street "traders" are salesmen. They make their money by selling fundamental (news) information and taking a commission on the amount of money their client wagers.

On the other hand, you have "traders" who sell systems. These "traders" sell the technical information in the form of indicators or trend lines. They make their money providing you a theoretical mathematical edge.

Finally, we get to actual "traders" like me. I do not trade other people's money, and I would never sell my mathematical edge.

Sorry, but the salesmen mentioned in some of these posts, who advise you to "get a real job" ... well, they are not traders. And the gurus who pretend to know how to beat the market with their signals ... well, they are not traders either.

Do I need to state the facts about the salesmen and gurus again?

How to be a successful trader, by Me First, you need to want to gamble. Let's face it, the markets are legalized gambling. However, they are my preference over games gambling or sports gambling. Why? Because the odds of winning are actually 50-50. You don't get that in most gambling situations. But, the best reason is because when you bet on games or sports and you figure out you are going to lose...you cannot stop the bet and retrieve any of your wager. In the market, you get 50-50 and can leave anytime you want with whatever money remains.

How do I win? First, if there is a major news (fundamental) announcement that day, I exit the market before it is released. I NEVER trade the news. Second, I have a technical edge because I understand the math behind the indicators and have effectively studied their forecasting abilities.

Most people trade because it is like gambling and they like the odds. Cool. Most people can drive a car too, but can they race it professionally? Most people can hammer a nail, but can you build a house? If you do not make trading your career, then you will most likely never succeed. If you do want to make trading a career, then you absolutely have to ignore the salesmen and gurus. Not only that, but you have to study. Anyone who is great at their job, no matter what it is, got great by studying it and practicing it and improving it. Right?

There are too many wannabes who don't really wannabe. They just want you to show them how to make the money and send you a smilie face and say thank you very much. HAHAHAHAHA. Can you imagine, for just a second, if someone were to show you how to succeed? What would you do? Probably be all giddy and act like the big man/woman on campus and brag to everyone, and send pics, and send templates, and within 24-48 hours a million people would have the system and be entering and exiting at the exact same time as you are. Hmm. Wouldn't that be great? You see the entry or exit and suddenly it spikes away from you. Yes, that would be awesome!!!! All that work, time, and money...gone ... so someone could be king/queen for 15 minutes.

So what do you get here, in this forum, instead? Cries of woe, salesmen telling you trading is not profitable, gurus begging you to buy their indicators, newbies expecting to be legends next week...LOL.

You can actually trade if you want to. It is not very hard. It is 50-50.

Oh, and money management is an invention of losers. Well, the money management you read about anyway. My version of money management is how much can I risk, not how much can I lose. Entirely different, lol. My spending allows me to lose, on average, 57 pips before I lower my lot size. The most I can remember losing lately is 7 pips. That was because it went into a consolidation and I just exited purposely. When the consolidation ended, the market went the direction of the original trade, so I could have stuck it out. I didn't though. If the market does not take off like I predicted, I just exit and wait until it does. It's 50-50. You don't have to ride it out, lol. The better entry then profited 26 pips. Hmm, so I lost, but then I profited. Yep, I average about 5 trades per currency per day and lose 1 trade about every 2 days and usually have 1-2 break even trades per currency per day. This is because the volatility sucks right now. Money is made by volume of trades and amount risked, not by stop loss position. The guys teaching you stop loss are the salesmen whose "BOSSES" trade other people's money, or maybe they do?...LOL...anyway, what the hell do they know about it???? I certainly did not see any of them in Calculus, Analytical Geometry, or Quantitative Linear Analysis. I did see them cheating off me in Statistics though, because it was a required course so they had to be there trying not to fail. All you newbies ***** how much have you studied to prepare? NONE? But, you want me to tell you what to do? LOL. Okay. Set the photon generator to 4 Kelvin and spiral the neutron to 900 joules. Uh huh.

Remember, I do not trade the actual news. I have no idea what the report will say. For me, that is gambling without an edge. To compensate I use other traders who like fundamental trading so I can have an idea what might happen. Still, I am not in the market when the news is released. Technical trading, on the other hand, is a combination of trigonometry, linear regression, algebra, C++ programming, competency with excel spreadsheets, understanding of modes-means-medians, calculating slopes, drawing trend lines and pivot lines, and understanding probability of volume trading. How prepared are you?

The volatility (up and down movement) of the markets has greatly reduced, so additionally you need to know how to risk more money if you plan to make any. Listening to the salesmen and gurus (who know nothing about trading) is not the path to profits.

Sorry, if any of you are offended. It is what it is The market goes up, or the market goes down. I had to make a comment because I am reading too much doom and gloom advise from people who do not trade. This is a trader's forum, right? So, why are people providing comments from people who do not trade? Or am I the only trader here? If you take the time to learn, rather than scam, you will enjoy your life much better and be stupid rich

Forex is a risky market. If you want to become successful in the forex market, you have to make a good trading plan. Without a plan, you can not survive in the forex market.