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Let's Trade Options

  • #2,621
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:08am Jan 22, 2014 7:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Put in a order for a 7 week LONG strangle on FCX for February 22 expiration, prices are relatively low on a 2 strike OTM option plus there is earnings in two weeks or so and imo FCX is ready for some volatile swings. Fcx current price $36.92 Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) -NYSE 36.92 {image} 0.40(1.07%) 3:08PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price long Feb $39 call for 50c long Feb $35 put for 60c Waiting for execution

Been hilding the above trade for a few weeks now, earnings day and it looks as though FCX will show its bearish side. Still have 5 weeks left before expirations so looking for a move to $32 area before I close
  • #2,622
  • Jan 22, 2014 10:24am Jan 22, 2014 10:24am
Not much follow through on the AH dump for AMD, but it takes time for stocks with this many shares selling. I need $3.50 or below to even come near be on the strangle. That's the problem with options on cheap stocks, no room to the upside regardless of how well they move. Lesson, I already knew - stay away from them.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,623
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:36am Jan 22, 2014 11:36am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Been hilding the above trade for a few weeks now, earnings day and it looks as though FCX will show its bearish side. Still have 5 weeks left before expirations so looking for a move to $32 area before I close
that's looking good, sp falling into earnings, hope you get a nice pop lower
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,624
  • Edited 12:33pm Jan 22, 2014 11:58am | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting The Fool
I am in UNH Mar 22 $77.50 long calls, bought after UNH dropped at earnings, when UNH was $72.50 +/-. UNH gained well today, ranged up to $73.62, but finished at $73.00. The idea was to sell some front month $77.50 calls, had a chance today as UNH moved higher, and missed it. Will be watching for further upside. Hate spacing out on good opps like that.....
UNH now @ $73.50. Running toward $74 my calls will go itm. I'm looking for a move on $75 before I sell Feb calls, will try to get credit for calls at a strike beyond my Mar $77.50, maybe $80 if I'm lucky
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-22_unh.png Size: 30 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,625
  • Jan 22, 2014 12:09pm Jan 22, 2014 12:09pm
YELP, dipped as much as $2.50 today but is back up a bit. Looking for that dip to repeat at close & I may sell 1/31 $75 puts against Feb 22 $65 puts I'm holding. Looking for a dip towards $80....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,626
  • Jan 22, 2014 12:45pm Jan 22, 2014 12:45pm
if every day MSFT is bought at the end of the day and sold AH into next day's open, just buy atm puts at every day's close
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-22_msft.png Size: 32 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,627
  • Edited 3:29pm Jan 22, 2014 12:54pm | Edited 3:29pm
80MM shares traded, no movement in the share price, should break down AH
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-22_amd.png Size: 29 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,628
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:28pm Jan 22, 2014 3:28pm
NFLX pops >$50 to ~$390 on earnings. I will look to roll up my short puts in coming days, from $305 to $340 perhaps, may fade the pop with otm long puts also, will wait to see where NFLX settles
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,629
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:49pm Jan 22, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting The Fool
NFLX pops >$50 to ~$390 on earnings. I will look to roll up my short puts in coming days, from $305 to $340 perhaps, may fade the pop with otm long puts also, will wait to see where NFLX settles
C'est la vie.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,630
  • Jan 22, 2014 4:16pm Jan 22, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} C'est la vie.
Say tray bone. My credit spread is intact. Could have worked out better, could have worked out much worse. I will prolly sell the $295 long puts and buy back the $305 short puts tomorrow or Friday for a ~$6 return in toto, we'll see. Or I may let $295's run and let $305's expire worthless next week and keep the $5.28 credit I have on it. Regardless, I will look to fade the earnings pop somehow. I won't be surprised if that gets done somewhat b4 the bell tomorrow anyways...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,631
  • Jan 22, 2014 5:06pm Jan 22, 2014 5:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Say tray bone. My credit spread is intact. Could have worked out better, could have worked out much worse. I will prolly sell the $295 long puts and buy back the $305 short puts tomorrow or Friday for a ~$6 return in toto, we'll see. Or I may let $295's run and let $305's expire worthless next week and keep the $5.28 credit I have on it. Regardless, I will look to fade the earnings pop somehow. I won't be surprised if that gets done somewhat b4 the bell tomorrow anyways...
That's good then. I did think, well, that's alright, but then I wasn't quite sure cos you didn't seem to be happy about it.
I wonder what they were asking for the ATM calls today.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,632
  • Jan 22, 2014 6:47pm Jan 22, 2014 6:47pm
IG index punter positioning on SPX. I'll be surprised if we don't crack 1850 on ES tomorrow or Friday.
Attached Image
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,633
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:43pm Jan 22, 2014 7:43pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Just sold one 95.5C Mar CL for 1.62, as CL is getting a bit of a bump up here. I have existing short puts and calls, and short the u/l, so I'm getting a bit more short here. In the worst case scenario I see CL getting up to around 98, but I see that as a low probability event (which means little of course...it's all just guesswork lol), and even if so, that means I "lose" (on paper) just 0.8. I reckon there's a good chance we see chop between 92 and 95 over the coming month or two, but let's see. Hope to hold to expiry or close quite close thereto,...
Flipped bullish on CL; killed this for an unpleasant loss.

Edit: also stuck on a small short on USD.CAD based on the above and on T.A.

I'm either going to be doubly wrong or doubly right. Probably I'll be doubly wrong lol.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,634
  • Edited 11:07pm Jan 22, 2014 8:06pm | Edited 11:07pm
Ima fade the EBAY earnings spike too, look at that 12-month chart, every spike to >$57 territory has been shot down. AH traded up to $57.50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-22_EBAY.png Size: 60 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,635
  • Jan 23, 2014 6:14am Jan 23, 2014 6:14am
HD/ Home depot looks like its about to fall of a cliff
  • #2,636
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:27am Jan 23, 2014 8:27am
Quoting The Fool
Ima fade the EBAY earnings spike too, look at that 12-month chart, every spike to >$57 territory has been shot down. AH traded up to $57.50. {image}
already down > $1.50 before the bell


,,,, down $2.20 at the open.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,637
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:39am Jan 23, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Also ear marked Google and Facebook for large moves. With any luck hoping Google does not make there move before earnings on the 30 Jan, may be a tall order for them as a lot of the major NASDAQ corporations do look vulnerable for a give back
these may go before there earnings, may have to miss out on them
  • #2,638
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:40am Jan 23, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Goldman has the potential to drop over $20, already in over 2 weeks ago
looking good so far
  • #2,639
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:42am Jan 23, 2014 8:42am
NFLX down to $381 from $394 in pre-open too
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,640
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:43am Jan 23, 2014 8:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think Goldman sachs will move next week and with it only being a 4 day week they have priced the options cheap enough for a strangle perhaps 1 strike otm. If you don't mind a little more risk by tying more more money then go out 2 strikes OTM but Feb 22 expiration date
these short term strike have moved multiple times already in this short week
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