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EMA48 15M Spontaneity (but mostly just my rant)

  • #41
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:09am Jan 5, 2014 7:09am
Quoting 4xplosion
Don't intend to Hijack the thread here, please delete if you wish, however, here is a video that also advocates when NOT TO TRADE...and it is detailing how the market makers totally disregard fibs, pivots, ichimoku etc at the retail traders' peril and some of the tricks they play.....found the video on another forum (am not advocating or promoting any system here, just some Infotainment" for the coming weekend...enjoy): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab1aR4v5Sv0
Thanks for the video! I think it's OK to see different opinions even though I don't believe the market makers (brokers and banks) manipulate the market that much. (they do stop hunting, thou)

My point here is, the conventional knowledge does not work as much as we think it does. It is just too risky to depend on it for your trading, in terms of SL. Like I said earlier, you get killed so easily in those critical areas. And often your lose a lot when you lose.
  • #42
  • Jan 5, 2014 7:10am Jan 5, 2014 7:10am
Quoting apo
Hi Forexgogo, I just wanted to say I appreciate your sharing ...and that this type of trading is up my alley. Keep it up.
Thank you very much for your encouragement! I will keep going a little more
  • #43
  • Jan 5, 2014 9:58am Jan 5, 2014 9:58am
Continued from post 29, 34

In post 29 I wrote:
So, the question is, how can you scoop them? In other words, how do you figure out the entries?

The answer is, you can use any method as long as it's simple. You could use MA crossing (eg, MA 8 & 12), MACD, or stoc. Anything BUT the price action, the market structure, fib, SR or SD, the wave theory, harmonic analysis, or whatever you want to call it.

In my case I use EMA48 + stoc turning for entry signs. This gives me tons of signs. The crucial thing is, I need to avoid the entries very carefully. That is all.

It's fairly easy if you have enough basic knowledge about trading. I tell you, avoiding entries is much easier than making an entries

And if you spend time reading charts with EMA 48, 200, and 800, you will come to able to see how the price acts and reacts upon those EMAs. That helps a lot to determine the entry.

Again, you can use anything to get entry signs. Anything. Probably it takes only an indicator or two. Simple is the best. Then, you evaluate the signs with the conventional trading "common sense" in order to AVOID entries.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think what I'm saying is not easy to understand. It is conceptionally challenging. But once you start thinking out-of-box, everything makes much more sense.
  • #44
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:38am Jan 6, 2014 2:38am
Mr. GoGo....do you ever find yourself doing a top/down analysis before entering a trade on the 15 min?
  • #45
  • Edited 5:46am Jan 6, 2014 5:19am | Edited 5:46am
I show you some examples of avoiding entries.

EU -- it is in a critical area -- S/R fib 50%. You may say you could go long, but I would never take a position around here. I have no idea which way it goes.

AU -- Amatuers would want to go long, pros opposite, according to Oanda. I say "stay away. it could go either way."

UJ -- Like AU...

I don't enter because the price will fluctuate a lot in those areas. The price eventually goes up or down, but you will be killed by that time.
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  • #46
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:25am Jan 6, 2014 5:25am
Quoting 4xplosion
Mr. GoGo....do you ever find yourself doing a top/down analysis before entering a trade on the 15 min?
A top/down analysis, you mean "higher time frames"? If so, yes. I see daily, 4h and 1h. But not weekly. I also check weekly and monthly pivots.
  • #47
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:47am Jan 6, 2014 5:47am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} A top/down analysis, you mean "higher time frames"? If so, yes. I see daily, 4h and 1h. But not weekly. I also check weekly and monthly pivots.
yes...higher timeframes (shorthand)....nice examples thx
  • #48
  • Jan 7, 2014 8:44am Jan 7, 2014 8:44am
from post 45

See, like I told ya, the price is going nowhere as of now. A lot of people are getting killed

When looking at 15m charts (EU,GU, AU, and UJ), EMA 48, 200, and 800 are all tangled -- means you get no entry signs according to my method.

This is not a coincidence.

I hope you understand how important to avoid losing entries by now.... It's much more important to spot wrong entries than winning entries
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  • #49
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:56pm Jan 8, 2014 10:56pm
GU long almost there...
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  • #50
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:19am Jan 9, 2014 5:19am
Hi Forexgogo

Today 1/9..I've seen 3 nice bounces off the 48 ema with stoch's 'x'ing. All above the 3 ema's and with trend. The present trade ( 8:15 EST ) is good for 20 + pips depending upon entry. Nice simple idea here. I'm watching and learning...thanks
  • #51
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:45am Jan 10, 2014 5:45am
Quoting apo
Hi Forexgogo Today 1/9..I've seen 3 nice bounces off the 48 ema with stoch's 'x'ing. All above the 3 ema's and with trend. The present trade ( 8:15 EST ) is good for 20 + pips depending upon entry. Nice simple idea here. I'm watching and learning...thanks
Thanks for your comment. Just FYI, it's important to see how EMA48 (red), 200(green) and 800(blue) are tangled or in order. Also, you need to see how EMA48 and 200 are slanted -- flat/horizontal no good.

Most importantly, stick to SL=10. If you need more than that, set a limit order 10 pips from your SL point. I always set a limit order near the EMA when the price is too far from the EMA (more than 10 pips).

The whole point of my method is to keep SL=10. That is the key to pile up $.

Good luck!
  • #52
  • Jan 10, 2014 6:19am Jan 10, 2014 6:19am
Yo guys

This is going to be my last post, at least for now. I'll be around FF to check news and some good jokes, but no more intense reading/posting. I think I've got all I needed from FF.

If you are still struggling, keep reading FF. It's very educational as long as you have a critical mind. I wouldn't come to profitable without FF.

Good luck y'all
  • #53
  • Edited 2:01am Jan 11, 2014 1:50am | Edited 2:01am
from post 45

See, like I told ya, the price is going nowhere as of now. A lot of people are getting killed

When looking at 15m charts (EU,GU, AU, and UJ), EMA 48, 200, and 800 are all tangled -- means you get no entry signs according to my method.

This is not a coincidence.

I hope you understand how important to avoid losing entries by now.... It's much more important to spot wrong entries than winning entries

I think there were some great setups Friday after NFP....maybe I will make this my "mantra" at the beginning of each trading day!........My strategy does give me early setups but even so, I still have to WAIT for the setups....indeed....The WAITING is the hardest part!! Thanks for the ReInforcement!


Inserted Video
  • #54
  • Jan 11, 2014 12:10pm Jan 11, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting 4xplosion
The WAITING is the hardest part!! Thanks for the ReInforcement! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyCa35_mOg
My mentality is a bit different -- I don't "wait" in a usual sense. I "observe" the market, NOT WANTING to enter. No, I don't want to enter! because I'm afraid of losing. But my method tells me "here is a entry sign, there is another!," pushing me into a position.

I'm always looking for reasons/excuses for NOT entering. Only when I can't find any reason, I enter.

You know.... the best way is to earning money without entering. But it ain't going to happen. So I have to enter to make money...

Get it?
  • #55
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:08am Jan 18, 2014 7:08am
Quoting Forexgogo
Just one thing to solving the question. If you win 2 out of 7 trades, you break even (spread not included). 2 wins=50 pips 5 losses= 50 pips. So, you want the winning rate more than 30%.


This statement right here has liberated me i can guarantee you am on my way to victory in this forex
thenx forexgogo
thankyou gregwilson
  • #56
  • Jan 18, 2014 8:22am Jan 18, 2014 8:22am
Hi,
I do not mean to add/detract from your simple and effective strategy. I'm on a learning curve ..and...well..
In another way of trading I utilize the Shi channel. By accident I didn't remove it from my charts when I was sizing up 48 ema spontaneity trade and thought that when the two collide it might be an added bonus ( confluence of sorts ).

Here's a shot...

( thank you Forexgogo )
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  • #57
  • Jan 19, 2014 10:11am Jan 19, 2014 10:11am
Quoting apo
In another way of trading I utilize the Shi channel. By accident I didn't remove it from my charts when I was sizing up 48 ema spontaneity trade and thought that when the two collide it might be an added bonus ( confluence of sorts ). Here's a shot... ( thank you Forexgogo ) {image}
Thanks for your nice comment! Confluences are good to have -- even when simple trendlines or channels overlap EMA48+STOC, it's good.
  • #58
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:43am Jan 21, 2014 10:43am
This was on an hourly chart. I didn't take it because of the time of day. This was 5:00 pm my time ( EST )...not the best liquidity. I'm thinking about changing my mind...lol


... your 48 ema 15m spontaneity strategy is a great example of K.I.S.S ( keep it simple sir ).

Best regards,
Billy
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  • #59
  • Edited 11:54pm Feb 14, 2014 11:08am | Edited 11:54pm
Yo guys! Long time no see

I've got interesting stuff to modify my EMA48 method.

Setting:
15m, EMA48, and SemaphorTrue2.

When the EMA48 goes down, you go only short at a green or red dot (at bar close). The price must cross or touch the EMA. SL is 10, TL is next green or red dot (suppose to be lower). Once +10 pips, set SL=BE. The more EMA slants, the better winning rate it is, the more profit you get.

You can tweak this (SL and TP). I believe it can be a very effective method.

Let me know your idea about tweaking

PS The original idea is here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=465169
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  • #60
  • Feb 14, 2014 6:25pm Feb 14, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Yo guys! Long time no see I've got interesting stuff to modify my EMA48 method. Setting: 15m, EMA48, and SemaphorTrue2. When the EMA48 goes down, you go only short at a green or red dot (at bar close). The price must cross or touch the EMA. SL is 10, TL is next green or red dot (suppose to be high up). Once +10 pips, set SL=BE. The more EMA slants, the better winning rate it is. You can tweak this (SL and TP). I believe it can be a very effective method. Let me know your idea about tweaking PS The original idea is here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=465169...
Hi FxGoGo- Sitting enjoying Sat watching League 9's here in NZ. Caught your posts - something to think about for sure. Intend doing a bit of b/testing.
Great that someone adds a bit of flair to our threads. Will follow your "rants" with interest
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