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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,881
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:46am Jan 13, 2014 5:46am
Quoting Vantage
In addition to the above euraud sells now sold gbpaud 1.8252. D closed negative, 3 bar reversal, lower high, RSI crossed below 50 level. 1hr big move lower this morning Asian open then some small candles, 1hr lower high and waited for the lows to clear. Target at the moment 1.5 x adr at 1.7990 but that's open to change. Will post charts if things play out.
Price moved into the 4-5 Dec candle body highs and paused there, certainly hope theres more downside in it but we never know if the level will fail or hold.

The EURAUD sells are in a very similar position with the body highs 5-10 Dec.
  • #6,882
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:41am Jan 13, 2014 8:41am
Quoting Vantage
In addition to the above euraud sells now sold gbpaud 1.8252. D closed negative, 3 bar reversal, lower high, RSI crossed below 50 level. 1hr big move lower this morning Asian open then some small candles, 1hr lower high and waited for the lows to clear. Target at the moment 1.5 x adr at 1.7990 but that's open to change. Will post charts if things play out.
Exited at the Nov high for +206.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,883
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:46am Jan 13, 2014 8:46am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Exited at the Nov high for +206. {image} {image}

You might see what appears to be a clear head and shoulders pattern on D chart, the top to neckline is approx. 500 pips which does suggest we have some more downside to come.
  • #6,884
  • Jan 13, 2014 10:34am Jan 13, 2014 10:34am
Hello Vantage,

Just been updating myself with your excellent thread.

Congratulations on your latest trade most impressive

Really good stuff here and I am envious now easy you make it look!


Keep up the good work,

DT.
  • #6,885
  • Jan 13, 2014 10:36pm Jan 13, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting doubletop
Hello Vantage, Just been updating myself with your excellent thread. Congratulations on your latest trade most impressive Really good stuff here and I am envious now easy you make it look! Keep up the good work, DT.
Cheers DT.

Doesn't always work out, obviously. Just missed our TP overnight on euraud so instead of banking around +220 and +190 we will hope that the push up into the lows 1.5125-ish from 2-6 Jan rejects and we fall again.
  • #6,886
  • Edited 3:28am Jan 14, 2014 3:07am | Edited 3:28am
Quoting Vantage
Posted on blog yesterday see link http://www.vantagefx.blogspot.com/20...uary-2014.html. Had no clue about ej but it gave a lower high on 1hr at Asian open. EURAUD at a support area but hoping this will fail after the D lower high, neg close 3 bar reversal. Sells at 1.5250 and 1.5211.
Our trailing stop just got hit on the 2 euraud sells. Our TP overnight was a few pips too optimistic. Still pips in the bank but its a little disappointing to have missed out. Oh well next trade please.
  • #6,887
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:28am Jan 14, 2014 3:28am
Quoting doubletop
Hello Vantage, Just been updating myself with your excellent thread. Congratulations on your latest trade most impressive Really good stuff here and I am envious now easy you make it look! Keep up the good work, DT.
Hi again DT

Here's an extract from one of the links in first post, what we look for.

I start with an analysis of D chart for trend. Looking for:

Good candles should follow through the next day e.g. an engulfing close (don't even worry about the correct definitions and perfection did you close above or below the previous 2 candle closes)
Did the candle break the immediate range
Did the D itself have a HL or LH close back into trend, i.e. did the D flow continue
Did we have an evening/morning star pattern (yes ok I know thats also a close below/above the 2 previous closes)
Are we above/below the RSI 50 level
Are we above/below the tight D ma

I've attached the gbpaud and gbpjpy charts. They are pretty much the same. Looking at the above list of things to look at and the charts:

Good D negative close candles on 10th should follow through, they did see their 1hr charts lower highs on 11th. The 1hr flow was in line with the D set up.
Did D candle break the immediate range. They did, both pairs closed the 10th Jan below the previous days low.
D close completed a lower high, 1 2 3 reversal.
D RSI crossed lower and either on or below the 50 level.
D below its 8lwma.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,888
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:31am Jan 14, 2014 4:31am
Good morning Vantage,

Thank you for your in depth reply, it's most helpful. (I did reply earlier but for some reason my post didn't appear)

I do appreciate anything in trading can not be taken as gospel but I do see where your coming from with your helpful analysis.

This is a demo trade I entered earlier today (before I read your reply!) so from what you say this looks like loser.

Very best regards,

DT.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,889
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:53am Jan 14, 2014 6:53am
Quoting doubletop
Good morning Vantage, Thank you for your in depth reply, it's most helpful. (I did reply earlier but for some reason my post didn't appear) I do appreciate anything in trading can not be taken as gospel but I do see where your coming from with your helpful analysis. This is a demo trade I entered earlier today (before I read your reply!) so from what you say this looks like loser. Very best regards, DT. {image}
I no longer watch Eur or Swissy at all. My first reaction when opening D is the clear SR level from 4 Oct and 20 Dec. Whilst the D has all the indications of a move down you never know what will win out at a SR level (trend or SR). Good D candles should follow through on 1hr, the attached 1hr chart today certainly doesn't have the negative closes you'd expect with a move down.

If you entered on 15 min after the large negative candle closed you have some reasons to be concerned. An overly large entry candle (at least compared to recent candles) often those are the last gasp blow outs at the end of a run, a large lower wick, in and around a RN, have a look at blog for 15/85 trades, all at the proven SR level.

If you were entering try getting some more space between entry and SR level. Protect yourself with moving to BE quickly, if it pops fine, if it hits BE fine.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but have a look at CHF 1hr closed candles today. Are you happy the lower high lower low flow is still in tact? No close below 8lwma, no decent engulfing candle that closes below the recent range.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,890
  • Jan 14, 2014 7:29am Jan 14, 2014 7:29am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I no longer watch Eur or Swissy at all. My first reaction when opening D is the clear SR level from 4 Oct and 20 Dec. Whilst the D has all the indications of a move down you never know what will win out at a SR level (trend or SR). Good D candles should follow through on 1hr, the attached 1hr chart today certainly doesn't have the negative closes you'd expect with a move down. If you entered on 15 min after the large negative candle closed you have some reasons to be concerned. An overly large entry candle (at least compared to recent candles)...


Many thanks for taking to time to reply Vantage.

Clearly no thought was given on my part as to the Daily time frame, although it was under the 8 lwma which as you say it looked at first glance as though the down trend would continue.

If I had taken the time to of bothered to placed a base trend line along the Daily (as you have done so) I may well of seen the hourly was clearly starting to retrace back up.

Bit embarrassing to of made such an amateur mistake

Best as always,

DT
  • #6,891
  • Jan 16, 2014 2:35am Jan 16, 2014 2:35am
Didn't get a trade yesterday (or Mrs V either) in the times we were in front of computer.

EURAUD D closed a doji so could go either way as this was at the RN and 23 Dec possible SR level. Perhaps the pause was for the Aussie news which caused move up this morning, then 6 hours of sideways where there weren't sellers it seems. Bought 1.5464 and hopefully the W pivot W M5/1.5500 will pop up to challenge the 1.5550-1.5600 highs. Stop now 1.5440 with price around 1.5488, hopefully the recent lows/W R2 at 1.5450 supports.

Will post chart if trade plays out.
  • #6,892
  • Jan 16, 2014 3:04am Jan 16, 2014 3:04am
Quoting doubletop
Good morning Vantage, Thank you for your in depth reply, it's most helpful. (I did reply earlier but for some reason my post didn't appear) I do appreciate anything in trading can not be taken as gospel but I do see where your coming from with your helpful analysis. This is a demo trade I entered earlier today (before I read your reply!) so from what you say this looks like loser. Very best regards, DT. {image}

Something kept nagging me about this trade. please see this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post7154680 good D set up for a buy, no follow through higher/pa to suggest a buy on 1hr, clear from the chart. Quite the opposite sold CT (within my CT rules). Might be worth a 2nd look DT. PA on 1hr not confirming the D trend.

Cheers
  • #6,893
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:59am Jan 17, 2014 4:59am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Something kept nagging me about this trade. please see this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post7154680 good D set up for a buy, no follow through higher/pa to suggest a buy on 1hr, clear from the chart. Quite the opposite sold CT (within my CT rules). Might be worth a 2nd look DT. PA on 1hr not confirming the D trend. Cheers

Good morning Vantage,

Thanks for your valued input and associated link to your previous charts.

I have just been re-viewing this and thinking on support/resistance levels see to the left there was a daily low on Aug 29th area.

Would this be considered as a longer term "double bottom" buy scenario?


Kind regards,

DT.
  • #6,894
  • Jan 19, 2014 7:55am Jan 19, 2014 7:55am
Quoting doubletop
{quote} Good morning Vantage, Thanks for your valued input and associated link to your previous charts. I have just been re-viewing this and thinking on support/resistance levels see to the left there was a daily low on Aug 29th area. Would this be considered as a longer term "double bottom" buy scenario? Kind regards, DT.
I associate a double bottom over a shorter time frame, on D chart say a week or two as happened 18-30 Dec. Personally I wouldn't describe the Aug - Dec lows as a dble btm but rather say its a potential support level i.e. a place where the market previously turned.

So whilst this would definitely be an area to move up you never know which will win out, trend or the support level. Hopefully our trading style does make way for both scenarios i.e. trading the flow off 1hr.

Once at those areas we'd be looking for price action on 4hr/1hr to signal a turn and change of flow (dble btm's, higher lows) and until D signals we'd be looking at these as CT trades. If you get a move up that appears to fail (dble top, lower high, engulfing negative close) for flow to revert back to (in this case) the down trend we'd be looking at sells again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,895
  • Jan 20, 2014 5:34am Jan 20, 2014 5:34am
Quoting Vantage
Didn't get a trade yesterday (or Mrs V either) in the times we were in front of computer. EURAUD D closed a doji so could go either way as this was at the RN and 23 Dec possible SR level. Perhaps the pause was for the Aussie news which caused move up this morning, then 6 hours of sideways where there weren't sellers it seems. Bought 1.5464 and hopefully the W pivot W M5/1.5500 will pop up to challenge the 1.5550-1.5600 highs. Stop now 1.5440 with price around 1.5488, hopefully the recent lows/W R2 at 1.5450 supports. Will post chart if trade plays...
Trade ended up at BE.

EURAUD D closed negative but overall not a major reaction to the key 1.5500 level. Sold this mornings 4hr lh negative close/1hr lh 1.5381. There has been a change in flow down but as the D has not yet signalled a sell regarding this as a CT trade. This gets nowhere near as much rope as a trend trade would.
  • #6,896
  • Edited 3:58am Jan 21, 2014 3:13am | Edited 3:58am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Trade ended up at BE. EURAUD D closed negative but overall not a major reaction to the key 1.5500 level. Sold this mornings 4hr lh negative close/1hr lh 1.5381. There has been a change in flow down but as the D has not yet signalled a sell regarding this as a CT trade. This gets nowhere near as much rope as a trend trade would.
Took a 27 pip knock here. Not a lot considering the size of recent successful trades.

EURAUD. As mentioned yesterday the D had not yet signalled a sell, this is based on the close 2 days ago. Yesterday was another weak D close that could not cross the 8lwma or cause RSI to cross. Could we fall today, sure, but this seems very weak. We pushed into the 23 Dec, 9 Jan support/resistance level. 4hr doji. 1hr hl, positive close, buy 1.5391.

We have now moved up after entry and stalled around 1.5415 the London open/US session highs. We trust that this is just a small pause.
  • #6,897
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:06am Jan 23, 2014 2:06am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Took a 27 pip knock here. Not a lot considering the size of recent successful trades. EURAUD. As mentioned yesterday the D had not yet signalled a sell, this is based on the close 2 days ago. Yesterday was another weak D close that could not cross the 8lwma or cause RSI to cross. Could we fall today, sure, but this seems very weak. We pushed into the 23 Dec, 9 Jan support/resistance level. 4hr doji. 1hr hl, positive close, buy 1.5391. We have now moved up after entry and stalled around 1.5415 the London open/US session highs. We trust that...
All good things come to those that wait. Now nicely in profit and stop 1.5350.

We had a hedge sell (this is a very rarely used tactic for us) at 1.5375 that has now been taken out at BE.
  • #6,898
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:57am Jan 23, 2014 2:57am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} All good things come to those that wait. Now nicely in profit and stop 1.5350. We had a hedge sell (this is a very rarely used tactic for us) at 1.5375 that has now been taken out at BE.

We are hovering around the 1.5500 level which has been important in the past and again on 16th Jan. We have had a 200 pip move up today already and whilst EURAUD never ceases to amaze me would have to expect some kind of stall here for now. Perhaps a push up in US session? We'll see.
  • #6,899
  • Jan 23, 2014 3:44am Jan 23, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} We are hovering around the 1.5500 level which has been important in the past and again on 16th Jan. We have had a 200 pip move up today already and whilst EURAUD never ceases to amaze me would have to expect some kind of stall here for now. Perhaps a push up in US session? We'll see.
Erring on the side of caution, as this is a key level, exited two thirds at +102.
  • #6,900
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:19am Jan 23, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Erring on the side of caution, as this is a key level, exited two thirds at +102.
Balance out at +140. Like I said we had a hedge sell in that reduced our risk to 20 + spreads.
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