The Clown - Yet Another System/Method

I have studied and used pivots, volume - you name it! Been there, done that.

But I have also dropped them years ago and not going back there. If they help you somehow - nice, use them, each of us has to find suitable own unique way and we can only help each other a little on that difficult road.

For me many different "signs" to look from charts will mess up my brain, they conflict with each other too often, make me confused and eat my self confidents (mental capital).
The wish to filter out bad trades could end up like plastic surgery - you want perfectionism and end up like this.
So I better keep doing what´s working now, rinse-repeat.

PA and volatility are the key factors and no indy beats human eyeball and brain in this matter.


Worked @night shift, woke too late to trade today, had some itchy finger trades, entered technically (on top of daily range - not the smartest thing for day trader )
but looked at the news and got out fast, this Cyprus bailout and banking sh_t is too hot and can´t be handled technically.



Well, there is always a next week.

Taxi:

Hopefully we can resurect this thread from the dead. I guess that would make it a zombie clown eh? As in "who's this freakin' clown?"

Anyways, I am going to make a real run of testing your system over the next week or so. I have it up on 4H, Daily, and I'm thinkin about scalpin. Not been much of a scalper, but Its what you seem to have some success at, so I will give it a try. As for my own additions, I have added one more MA to signal my exit. It pretty much follows the tenkansen on ichimoku kinko hyo system and a cross means get out or scale out as well as pivots and round numbers. I like to see if there is any junk in the way. Another interesting thing you might be interested in. If you get the signal and MTF arrows from Genesis system... You can get a heads up for a possible trade on your system. I like the extreme visual look of your setup because it is easier to filter out low probability trades. Now, you still have to filter the Gensis system arrows with yer trade setups, but it calls you to the computer when things are getting close. They even have a talking alert system that I am liking a lot as the sclaping screen I have doesn't have but 4 or 5 currencies on it and I can do something else and just listen for the alerrts and forget the ones I know are in the bogus direction. As fer the higher TF's, I am prefer those and will be trying around 15 currencies per timeframe, without reguard to correlated currencies. Let me know if you are interested in any of this, otherwise I'll just post trades next week.

Hi all,

I just stumbled upon this thread and it caught my attention right away because it resemble a lot what I am trading at the moment (I use CCI instead of macd to gauge the momentum and a different set of MAs to show the trend). I just did a quick visual backtest and I like what I see so far, it looks more accurate than my own way of doing it, but I was just wondering if playing the retracement move to the HAS or the MA instead of taking trade right away would be beneficial. It appears that playing the retracement to the MA or HAS (whichever comes first) would results in a reduced floating DD that could easily translate in tighter stops without altering much of the hit rate or the reward, so basically less risk for the same reward. The downside of this, is that you would miss some trades waiting for a retrace that might never come but I do not think that that is much of a problem in short time frames like the 1m or 5m simply due to the sheer number of opportunities available days in and days out with those TF. Anyway, I just wanted to hear your opinion on that before I start some more rigorous and relevant backtesting. By the way Taxi Driver, congrats on your equity curve , you might not be dealing in millions with this account but still, that much return with no crazy drawdowns with over 100 trades is pretty solid, don't derail from whatever you are doing because so far it seems to be working pretty well, may be those 5 years of more or less breaking even are a thing of the past now...

Here's my two cents.... If you want to try retracement trading, Ichimoku is a very good one. PM me with yer email address if you want to get a free ebook with an awesome description of it. If yer familair, bounces off the cloud (especially flat tops) Inside or the outside the Kumo is very good trade. As fer this system, I have looked at it a bit, but would still be interested in your findings, but what are yer rules for yer research? On the higher time frames, I would look at a retrace as a re-entry or perhaps an add on..Also, are your talking about taking a new high/low after the retrace or maybe taking the trade counter short term trend and picking the bottoms to buy and the tops to sell? Hmmm. I've been up to late, Time fer bed.... Good stuff to know so as we can cut the research down a bit. No use doin work twice eh?

Sincerely,

LL

I vote for retracement trades!
They are safer. When market makes a move, it´s better to let a mud to settle a bit.

But yes, there might be no retracement - I was watching AU few days ago on M15 and didn´t find an entry point, it was just shooting.
Was thinking that it´ll pull back when I enter and I get DD that makes me nervous.
Later it came into my mind, that when I usually enter 0.03 lot, I could just have entered 1/3-rd of it - 0.01 and pull back wouldn´t have been so annoying if it would have occured.
There are several ways to handle risk and DD.

Hi Taxi..

Your system looks very promising. Thanks a ton for sharing.. I have couple of questions, if you don't mind answering..
1. Is all the entries are done on M5?
2. I see that few trades going for 2 days or more.. So do you look into htfs for the exit..? Appreciate your help..
Thanks
BJ..

Here is my first High probability trade. MACD is on fire, there is a 123 trend continuation, a break below the pivot, clown system says down, but I don't sit and watch charts so it was the matrix alerter that screamed at me to look at the screen. This is my first trade on the 5M for this system.Might also add that the target of the next pivot made it a legal trade for me so as to allow a good RR. No round numbers in the way either. I am only watching 4-5 currencies while scalping. On my 4 hr, I am using the same idea with about 15 currencies. got into the usd/cad last night, and a couple on the 24 hr. On the 24 I am going to try a pyramid scheme with several add ons as trends pick up strength. Will check in and let everyone know how it goes.

[quote=LazyLobster;6540305]Here's my two cents.... If you want to try retracement trading, Ichimoku is a very good one. PM me with yer email address if you want to get a free ebook with an awesome description of it. If yer familair, bounces off the cloud (especially flat tops) Inside or the outside the Kumo is very good trade. As fer this system, I have looked at it a bit, but would still be interested in your findings, but what are yer rules for yer research? On the higher time frames, I would look at a retrace as a re-entry or perhaps an add on..Also, are your talking about taking a new high/low after the retrace or maybe taking the trade counter short term trend and picking the bottoms to buy and the tops to sell? Hmmm. I've been up to late, Time fer bed.... Good stuff to know so as we can cut the research down a bit. No use doin work twice eh?


My idea is quite simple, when everything turns red after a lower low has been made wait for the price to rally back to the HA candle before going short and vice versa for longs. I was thinking of backtesting this simple set-up for specific periods of the day i.e. 5am to noon for the EU on the 5 min tf and 18 to 22pm for AJ on the 1min TF. I live in the EST time zone and those are pretty much my available time slots for intraday trading. In real live trading i would take more factors into consideration like higher time frame S/R zone, RN, candle patterns or even divergeance on the MACD in order to be on the watch for a trend reversal but those analysis contain a certain level of subjectivity which cannot really be tested in the past since everything is in hindsight. When I backest I want the results to be objective so I will stay with very simple rules that are 100% mechanical and non subject to interpretation just to give me a starting point from which I can build on. Also, the TP and SL will probably be fixed to simplify the process. If, with all those rigid rules, the method is still able to breakeven or generate some kind of profit I think that it will be worth spending some time in this thread but with the results showed so far by Taxi driver and what I am seeing on my chart I am pretty optimistic. I was planning on checking the results for 100 sessions or something like that but it might take me a while to do so since I got some other unrelated things that need to be taken care of first. Anyway, when i'm done I will let you know what are the results if you are still interested.

aceventura69:

I would be very interested in your backtest reults if you want to make those available. I used to backtest like crazy. Still do when I am thinking about entries and exits, but not anywhere like I used to. I'm not saying that you shouldn't... But that I don't find my own backtesting anywhere neaar as useful as forward testing, that is demo trading. I find that much more info is gotten when I apply the trade set ups, than when I eyeball them while I am backtesting. So, I backtest to gain comfort with the trade setups, but then I jump in. I might also add that I feel the same emotions demo trading than when I trade with real money, so that's not a problem either. I have profitable systems right now, but I hate looking at the same old charts all the time.

That's why I like this one, it's colorful, fairly simple to read, and I have found a way to get my pc to call me to the trade when it comes along. Today was an ok day. I jumped the ball on my exits and exited way to early, but over several trades I pulled around 150 pips or so. Had I stayed with my original exits, things would be a lot better. These are my results for the 30M with 4hr confirmations charts across 15 currencies. Had I quicker fingers and alot more patience, that number could have easily been topped to 600 pips on just 4-5 currencies. However, today was a big trending day and anybody on any system could have had similar or better results. All in all, pretty great for a monday, but kinda stinky when considering the potential that I would/should have produced. I still have a lot of work to do on my trust of my exits in this system. My 4Hr charts are still in the works and I don't have any meaningful info yet as all trades are still open. One open on the daily. I said I would try to scalp on the 5M and at first had good results... 60 pips on 5 currencies in an hour. But I started having connection issues so I gave up after I lost half of it due to pullbacks that I would have exited previous. I like longer term charts better anways.

Sincerely,

LL

The results of this system are the sickest shit ive ever seen. WTF. Reading the thread...

Especially if his 49 days of results are from doing just that, looks pretty impressive so far.

I just wanted to point something out that a lot of traders seem to miss or just not think about. I have been trading for countless hours for years and years.
My last 12 months on my newest account at MB hasn't done so well. I meant to start off with a larger deposit, but they only allowed $5000.00 limit per transaction or something, I forget what the deal was. But I got a bad margin call back in May or so of last year, you can look at my trade explorer. It is only one of my accounts. No I dont know how much I have won and lost in the last 10 years or so of trading, but suffice to say I have not worked a "job" like everyone seems to have to support their trading entertainment/habit. I regularly take $ out of my account usually and just have my broker send a check.

I can tell you what I learned but it wont help you and you wont believe me. The proof is in the pudding. I prefer GBP/JPY. But let me state for certain what I see and have seen and it seems to be usually typical. anytime you are dealing with JPY, typically the STRENGTH goes with or without JPY, meaning that when JPY is strong typically it is gaining on USD,GBP,AUD,EUR,CHF and so on...so when you are in a trade with a JPY cross and the JPY is whipping the other currency, and you are near entry, quickly look at quite a few other JPY pairs and enter with the trend with a tight stop.

Am I a cowboy? No, I have no cows, but the easiest thing to do in forex is to click buy without thought, the trick is for sure managing your greed.
My biggest known problem is holding losers too long and closing winners too soon. I am at heart a scalper and have always been. I like 10-20 pips for sure, but I'd rather use a trailing stop to secure my winnings once up, even if it is only 5 pips. I tend to be less patient STILL even after all these years. But think about it...

Today I entered a trade on a split second whim, I grabbed a AUD/USD long @ 1.04119 immediately with my order set a SL of 12 pips, so 1.03899 and a TPT of
1.04699 so I am risking 12 pips for 60, a nice 5:1 RR, trade is based on nothing just a quick look at the chart and the appearance that AUD/USD will probably hold 1.04 (where we sat at the open of NY today). What I would prefer to do though in an uprtrending market is to let the price ride up some and set a solid SL at +10 pips, or once the trade is up 15-20 pips, set a trailing stop of about 10 pip to ratchet my SL up as price moves up and to lock in more profits.

ok I got closed out on the AUD/USD for 12 pips, no big loss, I grab 10-12 pips all day. But I am looking at the AUD/USD on the clown 5 minute and I am waiting for a reversal for sure, I know I entered contratrend, and was taking a chance but 12 pips is not a huge risk.

It does appear to favor a correction back up for sure, 4H does seem to be crossing down, but daily is still screaming up ( but may be done!), and then we have my bias that gold and AUD tend to flow together and that gold is infinitely more valuable LT than some lame a$$ USD - fiat currency.
Biases can be bad for sure and even if based on seemingly logical info, they can hurt you, but mine rarely do as my biases are based on thousands and thousands of hours just sitting watching and studying charts.

The worse bias in the world is the thought that it cant possibly go any higher! GBP/JPY killed me on some shorts some years ago on her trip up to 251. I kept shorting all the way up to so many new highs and finally conceded that geppy had beat me, but that was a long time ago, and now geppy doesn't make a move without my eyes on her. the range is the widest and the movements the craziest and for me its the most exciting of all the pairs and is like a wild woman that cannot be tamed, you just watch her and follw her and pick up all the $$$$ she drops in her travels.

The thread is dead... ...

Well, I have been using some of the info presented here, ANd I prefer to enter on the 1M

Course I have been getting killed the last coupe days, Balance is increasing but I have some old losers I am holding onto, so drawdown has gotten heavier this week. I am still up about 1800 pips for the year, but its a long road back to make back what I lost last May in one margin call/ sell out.

For sure it is not advisable to use your broker as your SL order! especially if you are using high levereage, which can allow you to make $ a lot faster but it can also help you lose it in a hurry too!

now stop crying!

What happened to this thread?

Dead lagging indicators on short time frame killed it I guess.

About what lagging indicators are you talking about ?
Did you read thread ?

knock..knock...knockin on a thread's door

Openes the door - nobody?!
Oh, it has been a year since that knocking. People have no patience to wait...

Anyway, EU buy on sight.