Some NFP forecasts talk about 200-360k ?? you believe ? | Forex Factory

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Some NFP forecasts talk about 200-360k ?? you believe ?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 5, 2006 11:02am Jul 5, 2006 11:02am
Some NFP forecasts talk about 200-360k ?? you believe ?

this made now usd bullish
  • #2
  • Jul 5, 2006 11:34am Jul 5, 2006 11:34am
Quoting trucco
Some NFP forecasts talk about 200-360k ?? you believe ?

this made now usd bullish
yes... usd bulls running...this also underscored volatility....
  • #3
  • Jul 5, 2006 4:28pm Jul 5, 2006 4:28pm
lets just say it will be interesting to see what will happen if NFP number is less than forecast by far.....hm! i wanna see these USD bulls reacting!!!!!
  • #4
  • Jul 7, 2006 11:27pm Jul 7, 2006 11:27pm
Quoting lindamartinfx
lets just say it will be interesting to see what will happen if NFP number is less than forecast by far.....hm! i wanna see these USD bulls reacting!!!!!
Linda,

Hope you were running against the bulls, hedging or straddling or somehow going long on that NFP. Can you believe that number????
  • #5
  • Jul 8, 2006 1:25pm Jul 8, 2006 1:25pm
Bad number and the Euro could hold on to much of the gains very long. WHat does that tell you?



Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Linda,

Hope you were running against the bulls, hedging or straddling or somehow going long on that NFP. Can you believe that number????
  • #6
  • Jul 8, 2006 2:07pm Jul 8, 2006 2:07pm
Quoting Yardie
Bad number and the Euro could hold on to much of the gains very long. WHat does that tell you?
Yardie,

Not all the numbers were bad. Personal Income rose by an unexpected numbers, while employment stayed neutral. On top of that, there was an upward revision of the previous numbers by like 22.6%. Also, the 121K number isn't THAT horrible, there is still some growth. Factor in the high cost of doing business, and you get the real possibility that underneath the numbers, we could have a better economy if one or two things changed in the next month.

What this tells me is the economy is still strong enough for the Fed to do some thinking...it's still not clear cut, although they will be a little bit of pressure to decide...I think when the CPI and PPI comes out later on this month, we MAY get a clearer picture. I still think we're going to have to adjust for a rate increase in August, so dollar bears will be really really antsy about betting significantly against that possibility until after August.

I think our mild uptick will only increase the Euro range, but I suspect we'll range between 1.2600 and 1.2950 until CPI...incidentally, the Euro held onto 50% of the gain, and on the 15-min, 30-min and 1 hour charts, we still see an uptrend.

My suggestion would be to trade anything that keeps you in a range for a while.
  • #7
  • Jul 8, 2006 6:56pm Jul 8, 2006 6:56pm
Quoting mrmikal
Yardie,

Also, the 121K number isn't THAT horrible, there is still some growth. Factor in the high cost of doing business, and you get the real possibility that underneath the numbers, we could have a better economy if one or two things changed in the next month.
mrmikal

Analytical methinks you are so consider this: the vaunted ADP number, which had major economists reconsidering and revising projections as late as Thursday evening, was twice that of the NFP!! How wrong ADP was (if wrong indeed they were).

One would think stronger employment numbers (e.g., ADP's numbers) would fare better for the economy. But alas, stronger employment often ushers in the inflation monster (more jobs, more money, more demand, prices increase, if I remember my econ 101).

So to me the question is, what purpose was served by releasing the lower number (how could ADP be sooooo wrong)? And as you corrrectly point out, unemployment remain unchanged. Thus the government's picture is painted that: (1) implies a "better economy"; and (2) infers lower-than-expected inflation and stable employment resulting in a "weakened" dollar in the FX world.

As for purpose, living in the "capitol of the free world", we see politics as the wrist if you will, connected to and guiding the market's invisible hand. I'm willing to go on record today that July's PPI and CPI will surface what's possibly underneath the numbers confirming our "better economy". Accordingly, inflation is in check and thus no rate rise from FOMC on August 8th. Why? 2006 elections loom near and too much tightening is not a good thing at that time of year.

Your thoughts??

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #8
  • Jul 8, 2006 7:01pm Jul 8, 2006 7:01pm
Quoting mrmikal
My suggestion would be to trade anything that keeps you in a range for a while.
i like the call, i agree that we are rangebound for a while. too much going on to develop a clear picture. every hike we have, the pundits say there is a 50-50 shot on another hike. but the hike always comes. im not saying the fed is done, im saying that im done predicting them.

im still bullish on the yen, even though i dont know what the dollar will do. do you see how strong it is in the face of the korean missles? earlier this year i was long the yen, im thinking about getting back in..
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Jul 8, 2006 7:05pm Jul 8, 2006 7:05pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
mrmikal

Analytical methinks you are so consider this: the vaunted ADP number, which had major economists reconsidering and revising projections as late as Thursday evening, was twice that of the NFP!! How wrong ADP was (if wrong indeed they were).

One would think stronger employment numbers (e.g., ADP's numbers) would fare better for the economy. But alas, stronger employment often ushers in the inflation monster (more jobs, more money, more demand, prices increase, if I remember my econ 101).
man i cant understand what all this ADP hype is about. the damn indicator is only a few months old for gosh sakes!!! how can the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1ersonName>mark</st1ersonName>et be so mesmerized by something made in May?!?!? ADP says they have a 90% correlation with the NFP, but thats in BACKTESTING!!!!! ADP is being fooled by data just like traders who predict the past with backtesting. until the ADP number shows a correlation in real time, it should have little bearing on the <st1ersonName>mark</st1ersonName>et. obviously they are a bit shakey on the realtime results, thus far. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>
Relax and be happy.
  • #10
  • Jul 8, 2006 9:22pm Jul 8, 2006 9:22pm
Merlin but the ADP data doesnt match the May NFP data either. In fact the ADP data is almost double the May and June NFP numbers combined.

Quoting merlin
man i cant understand what all this ADP hype is about. the damn indicator is only a few months old for gosh sakes!!! how can the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1ersonName>mark</st1ersonName>et be so mesmerized by something made in May?!?!? ADP says they have a 90% correlation with the NFP, but thats in BACKTESTING!!!!! ADP is being fooled by data just like traders who predict the past with backtesting. until the ADP number shows a correlation in real time, it should have little bearing on the <st1ersonName>mark</st1ersonName>et. obviously they are a bit shakey on the realtime results, thus far. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>
  • #11
  • Jul 8, 2006 11:03pm Jul 8, 2006 11:03pm
The statistics monkeys over at ADP were on CNBC last month prior to the number being released. It turns out their magic indicator only has a marginally better predictive quality then the economist expectations numbers do. They still AVERAGE being off by 85k from the actual BLS numbers.

The only value of the ADP number is for news traders. They now have 2 employment reports to trade instead of 1. J<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>
  • #12
  • Last Post: Jul 10, 2006 8:41am Jul 10, 2006 8:41am
Quoting Darkstar
The only value of the ADP number is for news traders. They now have 2 employment reports to trade instead of 1. J<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>
Merlin & Yardie,

Think about it. How can ADP be so far out in left field?? I mean they're not even close. Are we saying ADP is simply that incompetent and the government knows what it's doing?

But as a newstrader, I like Darkstar's point; and therein lies the opportunity.
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