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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,961
  • Jan 18, 2014 5:54pm Jan 18, 2014 5:54pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hmm, maybe the CNY GDP report can put some pressure in the USD, since they are good trading partners. But if the market will be very flat, then i think i`ll stick with the NZD report's aftermath.I`ll just buy or sell 15-30 min after the report is released and hope that the shock of the news will have a long lasting impact. I also hope it will be bullish for the NZD go get some swaps.
I hope it goes well for you. If you get any spikes trade after the 1st inside bar that normally shows direction it will follow. That is one way
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,962
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:00pm Jan 18, 2014 6:00pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} I hope it goes well for you. If you get any spikes trade after the 1st inside bar that normally shows direction it will follow. That is one way
Nah i`ll just use the report itself to give me the direction.After i know the outcome of the report i`ll just ride with the trend.And that trend usually has an edge
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,963
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:21pm Jan 18, 2014 6:21pm
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0xQ7pt8ocw...i-am-doing.gif
  • #1,964
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:35pm Jan 18, 2014 6:35pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Proxy actually is a newbie, trying
Wtf man, why am i a newbie? I know more about the markets then Magix and his whole no SL brainwashed crew combined.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,965
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:40pm Jan 18, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Wtf man, why am i a newbie? I know more about the markets then Magix and his whole no SL brainwashed crew combined.

Lets be honest that's not exactly hard is it, so no complaints about that.



But your ownly just starting to understand the basic's like Buyers / Seller inbalance moves the market not volume.


But your coming along pretty well recently, so keep it up and ignore the no SL brigade, it's a fix for having totally random entries
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,966
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:41pm Jan 18, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Nah i`ll just use the report itself to give me the direction.After i know the outcome of the report i`ll just ride with the trend.And that trend usually has an edge

You want to look for a pull back, then a pause then enter on the trend, with a tight SL incase it's a fake pause ofcourse, pretty tight to, think risk 15pips to make 100pips if it goes the right way.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,967
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:43pm Jan 18, 2014 6:43pm
So who was that Frac guy
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,968
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:43pm Jan 18, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Lets be honest that's not exactly hard is it, so no complaints about that. But your ownly just starting to understand the basic's like Buyers / Seller inbalance moves the market not volume. But your coming along pretty well recently, so keep it up and ignore the no SL brigade, it's a fix for having totally random entries
Of course the buyers and the sellers are moving the markets, whats the problem with that, its the bear vs bull struggle, i know that way before.

Besides i didnt spent much time analysing the microstructure of the market.I spent 1 year analysing patterns and TA based systems.Only to find out that none of them work.

I think this experience makes me 99% more experienced than the guys in the "Trading Systems" section of the forum because all of them still use stupid indicator BS systems to trade without results.Hoping that some magical STOCHASTIC+ MACD system will make them billionaire.

Still far from the "Gordon Gekko" level, but learning, just as you or anyone else here.

But certainly not a newbie
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,969
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:45pm Jan 18, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Wtf man, why am i a newbie? I know more about the markets then Magix and his whole no SL brainwashed crew combined.
Knowing and trading are 2 very different things.

Know all you want. Until you understand price and movement, you will continue to be slaughtered like the rest of the sheep.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,970
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:46pm Jan 18, 2014 6:46pm
Lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,971
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:49pm Jan 18, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Of course the buyers and the sellers are moving the markets, whats the problem with that, its the bear vs bull struggle, i know that way before. Besides i didnt spent much time analysing the microstructure of the market.I spent 1 year analysing patterns and TA based systems.Only to find out that none of them work. I think this experience makes me 99% more experienced than the guys in the "Trading Systems" thread because all of them use stupid indicator BS systems to trade. Still far from the "Gordon Gekko" level, but learning, just as you...

Tis all relative, I'm still a newbie compared to someone much older than me who's been trading for longer and is really good LOL

7 - 10 MAX on Forex, 2 years on stocks, 12months on futures and stock options ( NOT Binary ), managed 6months full time on Stock's But spent WAY too much of my profits womanising I'll admit, but was young and horny where as they days I'm middle aged and horny so it's all fine LOL

You'll get there, hopefully, just expect a long road ahead and atleast you understand SL's so you won't give back 6months of hard earned profits in a few days
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,972
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:54pm Jan 18, 2014 6:54pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You want to look for a pull back, then a pause then enter on the trend, with a tight SL incase it's a fake pause ofcourse, pretty tight to, think risk 15pips to make 100pips if it goes the right way.
Actually based on my theory, since the aftershock of the news create an inefficiency/ window of opportunity when the probability outcome gets biased, so the market is no longer a 50-50 probability after that.

And that whatever 60-40 probability is inherent to all candlesticks, so the longer the trade i hold, the better the chances, but i still wish to close it before midnight.So that will be a 1.5 hour trade probably.

If the NZD gets a good news, then lets say 60% for bullish candles, 40% for bearish, so if i put a buy trade after the spread calms down, the longer i hold it, the more chance of winning it, as the probability will tent towards the bullish sticks.

If the NZD gets a bad news, then its lets say 60% for bearish and 40% for bullish.

But whatever the probabilities are, its not 50-50 anymore, so its a good method to enter in the direction of the news, since all hedgefunds and banks have probably entered on a longer trade.Just surf on their waves.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,973
  • Jan 18, 2014 6:58pm Jan 18, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Actually based on my theory, since the aftershock of the news create an inefficiency/ window of opportunity when the probability outcome gets biased, so the market is no longer a 50-50 probability after that. And that whatever 60-40 probability is inherent to all candlesticks, so the longer the trade i hold, the better the chances, but i still wish to close it before midnight.So that will be a 1.5 hour trade probably. If the NZD gets a good news, then lets say 60% for bullish candles, 40% for bearish, so if i put a buy trade after the spread...

News it tricky, no time to think, I'd say you'll be lucky to get 50% win rate, but R:R is where it's at with news as good shot when it picks a direction it'll go LONG way!!

But ofcourse sometimes, it's up, then it's down then up again so tricky!!

Scroll back without looking at the event on MT4, then scroll to a news event and press F12 to advance 1 bar, it's not the same but it'll do for practice at trading news.

Personally I don't, I'm a wuss!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,974
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:01pm Jan 18, 2014 7:01pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Tis all relative, I'm still a newbie compared to someone much older than me who's been trading for longer and is really good LOL 7 - 10 MAX on Forex, 2 years on stocks, 12months on futures and stock options ( NOT Binary ), managed 6months full time on Stock's But spent WAY too much of my profits womanising I'll admit, but was young and horny where as they days I'm middle aged and horny so it's all fine LOL You'll get there, hopefully, just expect a long road ahead and atleast you understand SL's so you won't give back 6months of hard earned...
Congrats on your long trade journey.

However i dont think time is the key factor in the experience gaining.One can trade for 20 years , learn everything about the market, and still cant make a million dollar, while others make a million in their first year of trading.

I think the ideas and the attitude is important too.Open mindedness and discipline is also important.

I firmly think that Magix's no SL idea will slow him down on his trading journey by atleast 2 years, hopefully in a few years he can realize what huge mistake he does now.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,975
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:04pm Jan 18, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} News it tricky, no time to think, I'd say you'll be lucky to get 50% win rate, but R:R is where it's at with news as good shot when it picks a direction it'll go LONG way!! But ofcourse sometimes, it's up, then it's down then up again so tricky!! Scroll back without looking at the event on MT4, then scroll to a news event and press F12 to advance 1 bar, it's not the same but it'll do for practice at trading news. Personally I don't, I'm a wuss!!
You dont understant, i dont trade the news, but the aftershock of it, i enter 15-30 min after the news is released and when the spreads tighten again.

The momentum is still there and the edge too, of course the economic calendar's "actual" data is the important information here which gives you the edge

Quote
Gordon Gekko: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,976
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:04pm Jan 18, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Knowing and trading are 2 very different things. Know all you want. Until you understand price and movement, you will continue to be slaughtered like the rest of the sheep.
Which begs the question.... are you the imagined sheepherder attempting to keep his flock intact??

"In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep." ~ Albert Einstein

Which is the sheep. Which the herder?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #1,977
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:04pm Jan 18, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Congrats on your long trade journey. However i dont think time is the key factor in the experience gaining.One can trade for 20 years , learn everything about the market, and still cant make a million dollar, while others make a million in their first year of trading. I think the ideas and the attitude is important too.Open mindedness and discipline is also important. I firmly think that Magix's no SL idea will slow him down on his trading journey by atleast 2 years, hopefully in a few years he can realize what huge mistake he does now.

Totally agree, Life gets in the way alot for me, business, kids, errrr woman, MTBing, okay woman again, it's nice when I get a hour or 2 to just watch the market move.

Without SL I think he's basically doomed, yes he'll have a good 6months, maybe a year and it'll look great, then bang all gone, there is no real long term future in that kinda method.

Okay it could be a way of turning a small account into a larger account pretty quickly, but you've got to quit while ahead, but still not for me.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,978
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:07pm Jan 18, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} You dont understant, i dont trade the news, but the aftershock of it, i enter 15-30 min after the news is released and when the spreads tighten again. The momentum is still there and the edge too, of course the economic calendar's "actual" data is the important information here which gives you the edge {quote}

Sometimes it takes 15 - 30mins for the news to kick in, if it's US news, then at 2:30pm gmt US market opens and all bets are off yet again.


GA and EJ are a lot more consistent, bigger pip movements and they are tradeable a lot more hours per day, more predictable IMHO!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,979
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:21pm Jan 18, 2014 7:21pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Without SL I think he's basically doomed, .
That will be an endless debate, T .

The real thing is psychological. You can't (IMO) simply let a trade run indefinitely while underwater.
I've tried it all. Usually, when I don't use at the very least, a mental SL, I tend to let the trade run.

Always thinking that it will come back. (I trade a rather high lot size (by balance) and it doesn't come
back.)

There's also the the "time/money" idea. If you let a trade run against you for 500 (or whatever) pips
it's taking up your capital and your time. You could have been much better of to take a loss and get on
with a better, more profitable trade.

So... magico............ I know you'll have something to say.

Go for it.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #1,980
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:23pm Jan 18, 2014 7:23pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Which begs the question.... are you the imagined sheepherder attempting to keep his flock intact?? "In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep." ~ Albert Einstein Which is the sheep. Which the herder?
Neither.

Just a consumer of wool sweaters waiting for a nice set of lamb chops.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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