wonderful posts by DNB. get me back on the right track, i think. many thanks!
Simple, Powerful and Effective Price Action Trading Strategies
- #141
- Dec 9, 2013 1:05pm Dec 9, 2013 1:05pm
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
Just checking the charts around the London open time, which I often do to see what happened during the Asia session. I've noticed that the USDCHF has reached an important turning point. The weekly support level being tested is where the market previously found a bottom.
Now the Asia session breakout to the low side is now being rejected as buyers step in as we build closer to the busier london trading session. Price is also located at an extended point from it's mean value, so there is a good chance of mean reversion.
This is the beginnings of a breakout trap & reverse setup, I am expecting the bulls to fire up here but Ill be waiting for a break of the previous day's high before considering a long position.
Now the Asia session breakout to the low side is now being rejected as buyers step in as we build closer to the busier london trading session. Price is also located at an extended point from it's mean value, so there is a good chance of mean reversion.
This is the beginnings of a breakout trap & reverse setup, I am expecting the bulls to fire up here but Ill be waiting for a break of the previous day's high before considering a long position.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
- #143
- Dec 11, 2013 11:21am Dec 11, 2013 11:21am
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
Happy new year to all your traders, I hope 2013 was a year that you can reflect on, taught you lessons and helped evolve you as a trader ready to tackle the markets in 2014.
One market I've been involved with, actually the only market I’ve been involved with since DEC 2013 is the GBPAUD. When you have beautiful trending conditions like this, how can you not trade it. I’ve been long on an Inside Day breakout and still holding my trade because this trend just continues to show determination to move higher.
The New Year’s Eve candle has closed as a bullish pin bar, communicating that higher prices a likely to develop as the market rejected moves lower into the trend mean. You can see when the market trends perfectly like this, the mean value acts as strong dynamic support and price just floats above it nicely.
Just advising caution trading during the holiday period, as the markets generally stagnate and can ‘spike’ randomly due to low liquidity.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
- #146
- Edited 1:44am Jan 2, 2014 1:04am | Edited 1:44am
Lesson learnt in 2013:
1. Stick to trend. 90% of my losses was trying to counter trend even with the strongest PA.
2. Stick to method and strategy.
3. Do not meddle with you Entries, Stop Losses and Take profits
4. To stick to Stop orders always. They have kept me from lossing trades many times
GBPAUD and GBPNZD have been my best dec trades along with the trend. All locked in profits. Will hold them especially seeing the Bullish Pin Bar formations.
"Taking Responsibility is The Cornerstone of A Winning Attitude"
- #147
- Jan 2, 2014 3:58pm Jan 2, 2014 3:58pm
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
- #149
- Jan 2, 2014 9:21pm Jan 2, 2014 9:21pm
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
Alright Charvo, you just came across very negative.
I don't actually take many trades per week, I've been long on the GBPAUD for a month now and I've only just closed the trade today due to the GBPUSD and AUDUSD hitting weekly S/R levels and GBPAUD producing a large bearish outside day.
The market I am looking at now is the AUDUSD which seems to be getting a lot of bullish response from the major weekly support level...
I don't actually take many trades per week, I've been long on the GBPAUD for a month now and I've only just closed the trade today due to the GBPUSD and AUDUSD hitting weekly S/R levels and GBPAUD producing a large bearish outside day.
The market I am looking at now is the AUDUSD which seems to be getting a lot of bullish response from the major weekly support level...
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
There was a nice breakout of the indecision candle on the AUDUSD as discussed in the last post, but a lot of it was faded during the last few hours of trading last week. I am still expecting more of a bullish follow through off this level, I've seen this pattern before. The bounces off a weekly level and experiences heavy resistance to the initial breakout. Hopefully this week the AUD will push on with the initial bullish momentum set in motion last week. On the flip side, if the market tanks, and that weekly level breaks we will probably see a severe down move.
Also a bullish rejection candle formed on the USDJPY that looks very tidy...
The bullish rejection candle is a good price action indicator that the trend is still intact and something we can anticipate higher prices from. Also note how the mean value has been beautifully acting as the main termination point for counter trend movements in this trends.
Also a bullish rejection candle formed on the USDJPY that looks very tidy...
The bullish rejection candle is a good price action indicator that the trend is still intact and something we can anticipate higher prices from. Also note how the mean value has been beautifully acting as the main termination point for counter trend movements in this trends.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
So, the first NFP release came out last week and sent shockwaves through the market as the job report was much worse than expected. The AUD and NZD certainly gained a lot of ground from the release and as a result a nice short price action signal developed on the EURNZD.
EURNZD has already aggressively sold off from a weekly resistance level, displaying angry bears in this market, now the market has retraced to test a swing level which did hold as new resistance as higher prices were denied. The Friday candle did close as a bearish rejection candle with a nice bearish close to the body. This area also lines up with the mean value dynamic resistance, creating a nice bearish hot spot in the market for sell signal to develop.
Looking to grab retracement entries on Monday, if the trade works with us and plays out as planned, there is plenty of room for the market to move lower before hitting a weekly support level.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
{image} So, the first NFP release came out last week and sent shockwaves through the market as the job report was much worse than expected. The AUD and NZD certainly gained a lot of ground from the release and as a result a nice short price action signal developed on the EURNZD. EURNZD has already aggressively sold off from a weekly resistance level, displaying angry bears in this market, now the market has retraced to test a swing level which did hold as new resistance as higher prices were denied. The Friday...
I missed the entry on this one by a few pips. The pin bar trade didn't fully retrace to the retracement entry point and the train left the station without me
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
- #156
- Jan 14, 2014 1:16am Jan 14, 2014 1:16am
{quote} {image} I missed the entry on this one by a few pips. The pin bar trade didn't fully retrace to the retracement entry point and the train left the station without me
"Taking Responsibility is The Cornerstone of A Winning Attitude"
A major price action event took place on the AUDUSD today during the Asia session. The market broke down below a major weekly support level that was acting as a major long term containment line for the Aussie. A quick check on the economic calendar tells us the the unemployment figures were disappointing, firing up the Australian Dollar bears.
We are now driving into very fresh lows and the dynamics of the chart are looking very bearish again indeed. As long a price stays underneath the support level as bias will be to the downside. We will be on the lookout for any bearish trading opportunities that form as a price action signal. There is no point just selling now as that would be chasing price, which is something we do not do.
The best place for a short trade to form would be on the underside of the breakout level, as the market test, and confirms it as new resistance. Something like a rejection candle or a breakout trap & reverse trade here would be very inviting to short into. The most important piece of information at the moment is going to be how this daily candle closes. This is the power of price action trading.
It’s quite possible that the market will regain strength during the London/New York session and close back above resistance, which will change our stance on the situation completely, but if price remains on the low side of the weekly level then this chart has plenty of open space to move to the downside.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
- #158
- Jan 16, 2014 1:02am Jan 16, 2014 1:02am
On Monthly Timeframe for AUDUSD. Just a quick one. Do you analyze with longer time frames. For example i see a strong trend on AU. I'd like to see weekly PA or Daily PA to go short. The MA's still indicate a bearish market. Target 0.80000. What is you take? {image}
Another watch list with a Buy order is GBPCHF.
"Taking Responsibility is The Cornerstone of A Winning Attitude"
- #159
- Jan 18, 2014 5:42am Jan 18, 2014 5:42am
Looking to short my long awaited AUDUSD coming week after retest of previous support.
AUDCHF still presenting more short signal. We have a Double key reversal bar to confirm a continuation of trend. However, I was triggered in on Friday.
AUDCHF still presenting more short signal. We have a Double key reversal bar to confirm a continuation of trend. However, I was triggered in on Friday.
"Taking Responsibility is The Cornerstone of A Winning Attitude"
How are your trades going Libra?
The Australian dollar has certainly be the main driver of a lot of these movements. The AUDUSD at the moment still hesitating to maintain prices below the weekly support level.
AUDNZD has been on an absolute terror of a downtrend the last few months, it seems like nothing is able to stop the trend in it's path. If we have a look on the monthly chart we can see prices have not been this low since 2005! Although we did come close during the 2008 market crash.
The monthly support level being tested is basically the market bottom, it's where the AUDNZD has reached its lowest points and reversed. This major turning point on the chart is a very significant factor for us price action traders. We are watching for any strong bullish signals that indicate the level is holding strong and to identify any bullish trading opportunities.
This is counter trend trading, which is risky but does pay off if it works out. It's best to wait for that powerful counter trend setup to form before taking action, don't chase price around the charts hoping to hook line and sinker a move, you will probably only hit a snag.
The Australian dollar has certainly be the main driver of a lot of these movements. The AUDUSD at the moment still hesitating to maintain prices below the weekly support level.
AUDNZD has been on an absolute terror of a downtrend the last few months, it seems like nothing is able to stop the trend in it's path. If we have a look on the monthly chart we can see prices have not been this low since 2005! Although we did come close during the 2008 market crash.
The monthly support level being tested is basically the market bottom, it's where the AUDNZD has reached its lowest points and reversed. This major turning point on the chart is a very significant factor for us price action traders. We are watching for any strong bullish signals that indicate the level is holding strong and to identify any bullish trading opportunities.
This is counter trend trading, which is risky but does pay off if it works out. It's best to wait for that powerful counter trend setup to form before taking action, don't chase price around the charts hoping to hook line and sinker a move, you will probably only hit a snag.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies