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Let's Trade Options

  • #2,541
  • Jan 16, 2014 3:43pm Jan 16, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} hard to find these but these are the ones can can set you up for life if you get in a couple
yup, have had both NUS and HLF on the watch lists for some time, looking for an opp to short. Best scenarios come out of the blue, like today....too bad I didn't have some puts running.

Oh well, there will be plenty more pigs to bleed.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,542
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:19am Jan 17, 2014 4:19am
Bank of New York have the earnings released before the market opens, wish I got in last night but missed it , I think its gonna move and the options were pretty cheap
  • #2,543
  • Jan 17, 2014 9:11am Jan 17, 2014 9:11am
Quoting Cecil Gee
SLB has earnings out in the morning, it trading at $88.63 at the moment so I'm waiting right until the end to take a strangle for as cheap as possible and for same day expiration. like to get the pair for no more than a whole $dollar long $89 call and long $88 put or a may go a extra dollar out
did not get in as the price was too high last night so I've longed a strangle for next week now IV has fallen.
SLB has already come out but I still can't see a clear direction with this stock hence the strangle.

Long Jan 24 exp - $90 call for 86c and Long SLB $87 put.

Price SLB $88.70 as of writing

Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
-NYSE
88.70 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.09(0.10%) 3:10PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price


SLB Jan 2014 87.000 put (SLB140124P00087000)
-OPR
0.30 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.61(67.03%) 14:40


SLB Jan 2014 90.000 put (SLB140118P00090000)
-OPR

0.86 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 1.25(59.24%) 14:42
  • #2,544
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:37pm Jan 17, 2014 2:37pm
Have a good weekend, peeps. I'm in nothing new here, holding on for a wild ride (hope not) on NFLX next week, watching TWTR and YELP with a hungry vulture's eye.

Might have bought a long leaning UVXY spread today but it's splitting next week and I hate to trade across those, will just wait. Funny (not haha) where they put the split date ....

Another potential opp for good VIX moves coming on with the end-month FOMC

Remember the US exchanges are closed next Monday for Martin Luther King Day....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,545
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:50pm Jan 17, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting The Fool
Have a good weekend, peeps. I'm in nothing new here, holding on for a wild ride (hope not) on NFLX next week, watching TWTR and YELP with a hungry vulture's eye. Might have bought a long leaning UVXY spread today but it's splitting next week and I hate to trade across those, will just wait. Funny (not haha) where they put the split date .... Another potential opp for good VIX moves coming on with the end-month FOMC Remember the US exchanges are closed next Monday for Martin Luther King Day....
Cheers mate you too.

Too many positions to note here.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,546
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:40am Jan 18, 2014 4:40am
May get in a last minute play on FCX at earnings.

Also, VALE options are cheap, looking at $16 calls at least 6mo out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,547
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:50am Jan 18, 2014 4:50am
Quoting The Fool
May get in a last minute play on FCX at earnings. Also, VALE options are cheap, looking at $16 calls at least 6mo out.
forgot about market being closed on Monday so no time to put a order in for Haliburton who release there earnings on Tuesday morning before the market open. It can move. So will look to play UTX on Wednesday earnings. Look to take a strangle on GS 2 weeks out you can get a very cheap price 1-2 strikes OTM, i'm already in from a few weeks ago FEB22 expiration. People can get a much better price than me
  • #2,548
  • Jan 18, 2014 5:08am Jan 18, 2014 5:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} forgot about market being closed on Monday so no time to put a order in for Haliburton who release there earnings on Tuesday morning before the market open. It can move. So will look to play UTX on Wednesday earnings. Look to take a strangle on GS 2 weeks out you can get a very cheap price 1-2 strikes OTM, i'm already in from a few weeks ago FEB22 expiration. People can get a much better price than me
What you think GS will do?

couple vertical put spreads come to mind: sell 2/7 $170p buy 2/22 $165p for $0.25 credit, or sell 1/31 $170p buy 2/22 $165p ($0.62 - $0.75)

....the 1/29 FOMC could be a sleeper imo. If they take another slice off QE then we could see some bearish traction...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,549
  • Jan 18, 2014 5:24am Jan 18, 2014 5:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} What you think GS will do? couple vertical put spreads come to mind: sell 2/7 $170p buy 2/22 $165p for $0.25 credit, or sell 1/31 $170p buy 2/22 $165p ($0.62 - $0.75) ....the 1/29 FOMC could be a sleeper imo. If they take another slice off QE then we could see some bearish traction...
I think Goldman sachs will move next week and with it only being a 4 day week they have priced the options cheap enough for a strangle perhaps 1 strike otm. If you don't mind a little more risk by tying more more money then go out 2 strikes OTM but Feb 22 expiration date
  • #2,550
  • Edited 10:23am Jan 18, 2014 10:01am | Edited 10:23am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} What you think GS will do? couple vertical put spreads come to mind: sell 2/7 $170p buy 2/22 $165p for $0.25 credit, or sell 1/31 $170p buy 2/22 $165p ($0.62 - $0.75) ....the 1/29 FOMC could be a sleeper imo. If they take another slice off QE then we could see some bearish traction...
Well I assumed GS were reporting earnings (seeing as you both like earnings plays), but I just found they released their earnings on Jan 16. Oh well. I might take a look Monday. Market feels a little heavy here but then what's new, it just seems to recharge and push on every time that happens.

I'm currently ploughing through McMillan's tome, having had it for probably well over a year but never having made a serious effort at reading it. It's heavy going (I have to make notes as I go, otherwise, I think I may as well be reading it with my eyes closed), but I think it's worth it. Has anybody read this book cover to cover?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,551
  • Jan 18, 2014 10:56am Jan 18, 2014 10:56am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I'm currently ploughing through McMillan's tome, having had it for probably well over a year but never having made a serious effort at reading it. It's heavy going (I have to make notes as I go, otherwise, I think I may as well be reading it with my eyes closed), but I think it's worth it. Has anybody read this book cover to cover?
that's not really a cover-to-cover read, imo - but I use it more as a reference and have read many chapters that apply to what I am muddling through...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,552
  • Jan 18, 2014 11:03am Jan 18, 2014 11:03am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think Goldman sachs will move next week and with it only being a 4 day week they have priced the options cheap enough for a strangle perhaps 1 strike otm. If you don't mind a little more risk by tying more more money then go out 2 strikes OTM but Feb 22 expiration date
Most likely I won't touch that GS play. I am more looking out Feb-Mar and want to find the heavy movers there, Not to flog a dead mule but I think the next best chance for a market-moving catalyst is next FOMC, so I will be positioned around that with room to catch a drop beyond.

Well, doesn't hurt to dream....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,553
  • Jan 18, 2014 5:22pm Jan 18, 2014 5:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} that's not really a cover-to-cover read, imo - but I use it more as a reference and have read many chapters that apply to what I am muddling through...
You're right of course; it's not a cover to cover read. But I'm going to do my best anyway. Currently up to chapter 20 - straddle sales.
It's a very good book though. Some interesting ideas in there; stuff I really should know already and be considering or actively discounting either as trades or as possible adjustments to running positions, I'm realising what a half-wit I've been. I think your thread has definitely helped to motivate me to become a better options trader.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,554
  • Jan 18, 2014 5:23pm Jan 18, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Most likely I won't touch that GS play. I am more looking out Feb-Mar and want to find the heavy movers there, Not to flog a dead mule but I think the next best chance for a market-moving catalyst is next FOMC, so I will be positioned around that with room to catch a drop beyond. Well, doesn't hurt to dream....
Any drop should be bought IMO.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,555
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:08pm Jan 18, 2014 7:08pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} It's a very good book though.
I have been reading alot since I got my Kindle. Theres a good little pile of options books on Amazon that are only available thru the Kindle, although most are not worth looking at, I'd bet.

Too bad that the Kindle books are priced just m/l nominally under their paper editions, but that's one reason why AMZN is so rich. I gotta long ferry ride to do tomorrow & was thinking about downloading this one for the trip:

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/...4,203,200_.jpg

...written by a Brit, so "at least the grammar is correct" notes one reviewer...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,556
  • Jan 18, 2014 11:48pm Jan 18, 2014 11:48pm
As plausible as anything else. The shit needs a break sometime. Earnings are not exactly stellar and the FED could blow it all wide open in 11 days.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-correct-lower

"Overall in an environment where:

  1. Yields hit the highs of the year at the end of 2013
  2. The stock market is at the highs and has rallied on the back of on-going Q.E
  3. The Fed’s “emergency” stimulus has turned a corner / “topped out”
  4. The US economic recovery is patchy
  5. Confidence has likely peaked in this cycle
  6. Inflation is at the lows
  7. We would not be surprised to see a turn in both bonds and stocks over the medium term"

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,557
  • Jan 18, 2014 11:57pm Jan 18, 2014 11:57pm
With the above in mind, we must look at TLT/TBT. The first 3 weeks of the New Year have seen steady buying. 60 dte options are still cheap, March $110c @ $0.22....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,558
  • Edited 1:46am Jan 19, 2014 1:13am | Edited 1:46am
Quoting The Fool
With the above in mind, we must look at TLT/TBT. The first 3 weeks of the New Year have seen steady buying. 60 dte options are still cheap, March $110c @ $0.22....
small cap to suffer most in market rout, TZA could give up the $20 level pretty quick. Apr $22c @ $0.60...

...see also SPXU, returns 3x inverse of S&P, options volume is getting better
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,559
  • Jan 19, 2014 2:11am Jan 19, 2014 2:11am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101343507?__s...suggests+Ackma

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...right-now.aspx

75MM share float, >28% short, a retrace could be really nasty...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,560
  • Jan 19, 2014 8:23am Jan 19, 2014 8:23am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have been reading alot since I got my Kindle. Theres a good little pile of options books on Amazon that are only available thru the Kindle, although most are not worth looking at, I'd bet. Too bad that the Kindle books are priced just m/l nominally under their paper editions, but that's one reason why AMZN is so rich. I gotta long ferry ride to do tomorrow & was thinking about downloading this one for the trip: http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/...4,203,200_.jpg ...written...
As a "Brit" (we don't use that word in the UK), I find that somewhat patronising and condescending tone employed by some of my fellow countrymen when it comes to U.S. English language matters to be quite embarrassing. I used to take that high tone myself until I a) grew up and b) realised that in many respects U.S. English is closer to the English that was spoken and/or written in England quite some time ago.
Having said that, I do get quite ridiculously upset whenever Americanisms creep into British English e.g. "the crowd was protesting the government's new law..." "Protesting AGAINST..." I scream silently inside my head to nobody in particular....

As to the book, there is a sample chapter at http://www.harriman-house.com/sample...519_sample.pdf
The problem with these books I suppose is that it's hard to quantify their value. The whole book may simply be a rather turgid elaboration of the hackneyed (but very true) phrase "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" which leads directly to the wisdom that defensive position sizing is one of the major determinants of success (the other being psychology).
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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