why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 95 | Forex Factory

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  • #1,881
  • Jan 17, 2014 6:24pm Jan 17, 2014 6:24pm
I just been pinged. I mentioned page 88 3 pairs I think an inside bar and 2 outside bars. It seems 2 of them were quite good results. I have will check later saturday. Be good .more beer time of
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,882
  • Jan 17, 2014 7:45pm Jan 17, 2014 7:45pm
Quoting nasir.khan
On the subject, i cant figure how someone would call the market random and than goes on to put their hard earned money in an account and trade it. .
Simple answer. As PipMeUp (one of the few posters worth reading imo) has put it, random doesn't necessarily imply equiprobability. One would be categorizing the market as being random either due to insufficient/incomplete knowledge of the system/equation or of the inputs/variables generating price movement.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,883
  • Jan 17, 2014 8:22pm Jan 17, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting Proximus
How can i ignore the code.That was just the code from my EA.

Really?

So, not only do you have zero comprehension of market, you don't know shit about code either?

Your coding skills are akin to Turveys ability to coherently post a reply? Just a random generation of words that actually takes a trade?

Not only have the pair of you helped to destroy the topic at hand with your ignorance, you are now threatening to have this binned to the fucking Rookie section.

Seriously...

The pair of your should start a thread together and have others who have only heard about market educate you. Between the pair of you, there is a bare minimum skill level that just exceeds pushing a button to take a trade.

You are playing in and posting in a place where others come to learn, but have no more abilities than a chicken that plays tic-tac-toe.

When you are in doubt or feel offended by my words, simply read back through these posts.

If nobody else is offended by the pair of you having permission to continue on spewing this kind of bullshit...they too should join your efforts.

Un-fucking-believable!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,884
  • Jan 17, 2014 8:39pm Jan 17, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting FXEZ
{quote} The markets are efficient in the sense that there are no free arbitrage opportunities sitting around for a retail hero to take advantage of. The market distributions also have fat tails, indicating the presence of trends, an inefficiency. So efficient with trends? Mostly efficient but with some inefficiency in market structure? Randomness simply means you can't predict price movement ahead of time. If you could then the market wouldn't be random, but deterministic. Some market participants claim to be able to predict some of the time. Somewhat...
I understand what you mean by the market as a mechanism of exchange in itself being efficient, but the fact remains that humans, flawed decision-makers at so many levels, trade the markets. That said, EMH is a failed attempt at explaining behavior in a market context, because paradoxically, it is a model that rejects the human element as a valid input. When the human element is used as input, simple human emotions (panic and euphoria), cognitive biases, etc make it possible to explain why otherwise inexplicable inefficiencies occur, and may even persist for some time, in the markets.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,885
  • Jan 17, 2014 8:44pm Jan 17, 2014 8:44pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Really? So, not only do you have zero comprehension of market, you don't know shit about code either? Your coding skills are akin to Turveys ability to coherently post a reply? Just a random generation of words that actually takes a trade? Not only have the pair of you helped to destroy the topic at hand with your ignorance, you are now threatening to have this binned to the fucking Rookie section. Seriously... The pair of your should start a thread together and have others who have only heard about market educate you. Between the pair of...
Seriously man i dont know what is your problem, i posted a piece of my code to show Turvey that sells are open at the bid price and buys are at the ask price.

If you didnt knew this just go learn basic stuffs about metatrader.

As for you telling me that my posts are worthless, well i think you have either a hard time to understand them, or just starting to troll again.

You have 4 trade explorers ,and 3 of them with -50% profit, so i dont know how can you have any kind of credibility after that.Besides you use a no stoploss system.

You are the biggest newbie from this entire thread if i think about it.Even worse ,since every newbie atleast has some kind of basic protection of his capital, you dont, so i`m now wondering how can you be so unsuccesful trader, you cant even understand the most basic rules of trading and capital protection, and them come here and insult others.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,886
  • Jan 17, 2014 9:14pm Jan 17, 2014 9:14pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Seriously man i dont know what is your problem, i posted a piece of my code to show Turvey that sells are open at the bid price and buys are at the ask price. If you didnt knew this just go learn basic stuffs about metatrader. As for you telling me that my posts are worthless, well i think you have either a hard time to understand them, or just starting to troll again. You have 4 trade explorers ,and 3 of them with -50% profit, so i dont know how can you have any kind of credibility after that.Besides you use a no stoploss system. You are...

Seriously man,

You don't actually know your ass from a hole in the ground and your over wordy posts clarify this exact thing.

You can't actually show me anything about MT4 or market because your market sense is tainted by ignorance if not flat out stupidity. When and if you actually make a profit in market, consistently, you will actually see how blatantly pointless and worthless your spam actually is. Copy these pages, bookmark them in your browser or post your thoughts on post it notes beside your monitor. As you realize how much you are wrong, cross them out, and simply post, MAGIX, you were right and I am wrong.

The repetition in this will allow you to open your mind and actually start to see and listen instead of blindly walking though these halls with meaningless and worthless rants.

And when you do this, please spell my nick correctly and I will give you a thumbs up, as is required.

My credibility has never been in question. Reason being, that I post information vs your and scurveys worthless bullshit rants. I sell nothing and really have nothing to gain by my posts with exception to educate others as others have been kind enough to lend this same thing.

When comes to my Trade Explorers, what you don't realize is that they are based on 4 trade systems in FF. Popular threads, but ultimately doom others to a busted account...that is with exception to Mine.

You see, the one that has survived coins the same name as my thread. If that in itself isn't an actual market hint, then I am not sure of what rotting piece of fish I could use to slap some sense in you to realize.

I have taken the ultimate in what others consider as gospel and shown that it is no more than a blind trigger in a mass of confusion.

It really is no wonder that FF claims a quarter mill in subs but can't show more than 4k active at any given time. You folk simply don't know how to read in your mother tongue, never mind viewing the rhythm of market.

You, like a lot of your predecessors, also known as the 95% of people who trade themselves out of market see what you want, not what needs to be seen. Your arrogance is simply nothing more than ignorance shown by all others who have and will continue to fail.

What you have missed is that there is 1 of my traders that stands up against the others, but never ask, WHY?

If in the grand scheme of life and with all things being equal, why would one stand above the others?

You are hell bent on proving your omniportance rather than trying to learn from those before you. You really don't have to re-create the wheel, you just need to understand how it works...

Stick to the rookie section and threads.

Your worthless tripe is little more than a page filler and even under the ignore feature does nothing more than cause others to have to flip past your bullshit.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,887
  • Jan 17, 2014 9:37pm Jan 17, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} I understand what you mean by the market as a mechanism of exchange in itself being efficient, but the fact remains that humans, flawed decision-makers at so many levels, trade the markets. That said, EMH is a failed attempt at explaining behavior in a market context, because paradoxically, it is a model that rejects the human element as a valid input. When the human element is used as input, simple human emotions (panic and euphoria), cognitive biases, etc make it possible to explain why otherwise inexplicable inefficiencies occur, and...
The efficient market hypothesis seems to me an attempt by economists to justify their lack of ability in creating profitable trading systems. The false premise at the core of EMH is that because markets are efficient, nobody can make any money speculating. Lately there have been some papers indicating that efficiency can exist with the ability to profit from market movements.
  • #1,888
  • Edited 9:55pm Jan 17, 2014 9:44pm | Edited 9:55pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Seriously man, You don't actually know your ass from a hole in the ground and your over wordy posts clarify this exact thing. You can't actually show me anything about MT4 or market because your market sense is tainted by ignorance if not flat out stupidity. When and if you actually make a profit in market, consistently, you will actually see how blatantly pointless and worthless your spam actually is. Copy these pages, bookmark them in your browser or post your thoughts on post it notes beside your monitor. As you realize how much you are...
I know i should not talk to you because its not wise to feed the troll, but my ego will insist anyways.

First of all, it doesnt matter what you do, the fact that you dont use a stoploss tells pretty much everything about you.

No sane professional account manager / professional trader/ wallstreet guy would ever trade without a stoploss.

So this little mistake / or ignorance of yours made you probably the ultimate newbie here, and worse, it will probably destroy your account too at some point.

Secondly, your TE is all done on demo accounts, you made 9.8% growth ->$147 ,virtual money, congratulations

But i still dont understand what is your problem ?? If you think that the quality of my posts are low then i suggest you to look in the mirror first.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,889
  • Jan 17, 2014 10:09pm Jan 17, 2014 10:09pm
Quoting FXEZ
{quote} The efficient market hypothesis seems to me an attempt by economists to justify their lack of ability in creating profitable trading systems. The false premise at the core of EMH is that because markets are efficient, nobody can make any money speculating. Lately there have been some papers indicating that efficiency can exist with the ability to profit from market movements.
A paradigm change - that could bring interesting developments. Anyway you mean profit from the market shorter term movements as we aim as traders? I ask this because Eugene Fama was both the father of EMH, and index trading as a long-term investment strategy.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,890
  • Jan 17, 2014 10:59pm Jan 17, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I know i should not talk to you because its not wise to feed the troll, but my ego will insist anyways. First of all, it doesnt matter what you do, the fact that you dont use a stoploss tells pretty much everything about you. No sane professional account manager / professional trader/ wallstreet guy would ever trade without a stoploss. So this little mistake / or ignorance of yours made you probably the ultimate newbie here, and worse, it will probably destroy your account too at some point. Secondly, your TE is all done on demo accounts,...

I am an analytical guy so let's tackle this.

Your belief that I am a troll stems from?
A) Because you are as much of a market mushroom as Turvy and believe his schtick?
B) Because I think you are a market moron and have exposed you as this?
Or the least likely...
C) Because you have actually read anything I have written and can actually prove me wrong in any single point?

I understand you are a little tender because I gave you a bit of a verbal spanking. Delicate peaches run rampant throughout FF including the admin, so an expectation of you being an exception to this, is well...simply not there.

Get over it, wussy. If you think I can spank hard, wait until market actually gets a hold of you.

You have stated well that it is your ego that makes you speak. Not that you actually have any market sense and in this, it is as close to a market truth as you have actually touched upon in anything you have written. Though, admittedly, after your first few worthless pieces of shit, posts, I had summarized your thoughts after the first sentence. You really speak in market rhetoric and have no originality nor ability to comprehend even the simplest of statements.

As for what stop losses and what sane market managers would do...you've never been there, this is yet another area of market that you cannot comprehend. What I have learned and will continue to post, is that if you haven't a fucking clue as to how market works, you fall back on stops as a default, not as a rule and that any of the firms I have worked with simply state, "If you need to set a stop, it is because you are unsure of your position. If this is the case, do not trade".

You see, you can post as much worthless bullshit as you want, but this is what seperates guys like you and scurvy from the rest who have a conceptual idea of what we are doing. I never stated that I trade perfection, 100% win, I will continue to state that with a keen sense and idea of the predictability of market, that even if you do take an incorrect trade, there is no reason to place a stop. Market will come back to you.

But, you ignore this, and wish to try and see where I have a point, continue to harp on how badly you have been beaten like a market bitch.

Dude, when I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about, I used to spout the same bullshit. You aren't the first, and are certainly no exception. This is where paying attention could be to your benefit, but alas, you will stick with your fucked up ideas and piss poor performance as your guide.

If you keep doing what you are doing, you will keep getting what you are getting.

Put down the books, quit reading articles and stop posting bullshit. Start watching market and try to gain a sense of semblance. This will be your only salvation.

You are not fighting against me...but the harder you do, the longer it will take you to understand.

Do you know what the expectation on gains for a professional account is?

I didn't think so.

I picked up my first Managed Account, with just under 2% in a week. By simply "Not Losing", and actually having a gain, I was worth more risk than a lot of you fuckers with all of your bullshit talk.

I don't manage funds anymore, reason being...I don't need to.

These can be as much of a market fallacy as turvy thinking he can quit his job to trade freedom with a $500 start. Do a little math champ and you will see the same. What do you need to live per month? What would you assume pro traders make per account percentage wise? How much do you have to make for somebody else before trading your own funds, makes more sense?

You are not an exclusive to the newbie ranks here...not even an exception thinking you are smarter than everybody else.

The only thing you really are, is a waste of your own time, a waste of infinite webspace and a detriment to anybody else who could stand a chance at learning. This of course goes without saying, that at a live account, unless traded for micro lots..you are a danger to your own finances.

So, mock the 9% gains on my M1 auto trader and show me better.

Otherwise...

Sit down.
Do the rest of FF a favor and
Shut the fuck up and start listening.

Though you seem to have a better handle on the English language and can post in a lot more cohesive and comprehensive manner than does Turdy...your words are of no merit and you will continue to not only flush your own funds down the toilet, but will drag others along with you.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,891
  • Jan 18, 2014 12:09am Jan 18, 2014 12:09am
Quoting Magix
"If you need to set a stop, it is because you are unsure of your position. If this is the case, do not trade".
Quoting Magix
there is no reason to place a stop. Market will come back to you. But, you ignore this, and wish to try and see where I have a point, continue to harp on how badly you have been beaten like a market bitch.
OMFG, i think this 2 statements prove your experience and intellect.

First,if you are so so confident about your position then why cant you place a stop ?

And secondly can you even comprehend what you just said "Market will come back to you" ,what the f*ck is this, i already explained a few million pages back or was it another thread, i dont know, that you need like 3.5 years for a market to reverse, you if a fking trade goes agains you, you either close it with a stoploss, or hold on for it 3.5 years to reverse back, as it took from 2000 to 2008 or whatever for the EUR/USD to go from all time low to all time high.

And what if it makes a new all time low or high, you gonna hold on for a - 1.000.000$ losing position.Nope you get a fking margin call much more sooner.

Can you even comprehend what a margin call is, it will wipe our 80-90% of your account instantly, is that wise, i`m asking you??

Considering that you dont have a huge capital and you probably use leverage, you will get a margin call in a few weeks.

Even the most newbie will put a fkin stop, this makes you worse than them, i just have no words to say after this.

I didnt even read your post after this, it was just shocking narrowmindedness and madness from your part, i`m sorry for you.And no offence meant.I`m trying to be polite with you even if you are not.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,892
  • Edited 12:37am Jan 18, 2014 12:26am | Edited 12:37am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I am an analytical guy so let's tackle this. Your belief that I am a troll stems from? ...
This is how a fking NO-STOPLOSS system's balance curve looks like, are you proud of it?

Don't have to, because you will see your account balance resemble this picture very soon aswell...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TesterGraph.gif Size: 12 KB


So your system is no better than this, a margin call can wipe 100% of your profits and 80% of your starting capital aswell, is it wise to not use SL?

You will get margin called sooner of later, its not a question of if?, its a question of when?, then you can experience it on your own money, good luck with it!
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,893
  • Jan 18, 2014 2:06am Jan 18, 2014 2:06am
proxy, I think you are taking an unnecessary beating BUT you made 9 pips or pipettes and your friend is losing a few hundred therefore I believe, It is certain you are doing something right if not better.
I am not referring to the magix method but a lot of these grid type methods do not need a stop loss due to the way they work and I have never known one to continually perform well. They are on a par with a double martingale effect and in a worse case scenario if trading is suspended on an active pair for what ever reason this can literally ruin you. Their are a few ways you can get this sort of method working better but it does help if you have a massive bank roll.
You want to study your boob method more, it is an old method and so simple and I would even cut out the volume indie.
Look at your chart say on minute time frame along side a much higher time frame, or try the ema cross over, this will give you experience for chart watching and you do not need any fancy crap on your charts
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,894
  • Jan 18, 2014 2:22am Jan 18, 2014 2:22am
Proxy,, I just checked Fri charts. I think page 88, I mentioned 3 pairs in the vain of predicting,,, e/u was inside bar that was triggered for 50/60 pips ,,, e/j was an outside bar that was triggered for approx 70 pips and g/j was triggered both ends for jack but is now followed by another outside bar.
I am just stating the amount of pips made and this happens quite a lot and this too is a simple and heavily used method by the pros. See what happens to g/j, actually see what happens to the other 2 pairs. Just watch the charts even look for your boob area and you'll only need a few trades to go in and you'll piss every one off, Believe me it is EASY and obviously it is not 100% guaranteed to win every time only of course if I trade it lol, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,895
  • Jan 18, 2014 3:27am Jan 18, 2014 3:27am
Sorry Magix, I think you have some pretty serious mental issues, you have all these wild ideas of how to trade,lets face it, its bollox isn't it, you have no way to implement any if it, obviously.

Its all just marketing speal,I presume your a sales man in real life ? Huge ego, tiny brain, believe everything you say is true, therefore everyone else MUST be wrong, that's why you keep pushing your method on all, its too complicated it's not based on any kinda logic, give up, take a year off, eat some humble pie, then start again from scratch imho.

Used car sales man?
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,896
  • Jan 18, 2014 3:57am Jan 18, 2014 3:57am
Quoting billytt
proxy, I think you are taking an unnecessary beating BUT you made 9 pips or pipettes and your friend is losing a few hundred therefore I believe, It is certain you are doing something right if not better. I am not referring to the magix method but a lot of these grid type methods do not need a stop loss due to the way they work and I have never known one to continually perform well. They are on a par with a double martingale effect and in a worse case scenario if trading is suspended on an active pair for what ever reason this can literally ruin...
Quoting billytt
Proxy,, I just checked Fri charts. I think page 88, I mentioned 3 pairs in the vain of predicting,,, e/u was inside bar that was triggered for 50/60 pips ,,, e/j was an outside bar that was triggered for approx 70 pips and g/j was triggered both ends for jack but is now followed by another outside bar. I am just stating the amount of pips made and this happens quite a lot and this too is a simple and heavily used method by the pros. See what happens to g/j, actually see what happens to the other 2 pairs. Just watch the charts even look for your...
I made much more than that 9 pips, and Magix is not my friend.

Yeah a martingale is the worst thing you want to add to a no sl method.Atleast with a no -stoploss if you withdraw cash regularly (weekly lol) you can survive for a while.

Add martingale to it and you exponentially increase your chance of a margin call.Just hit lot size ^ 8, combined with a leverage of 1:200, its a pure margin call after a few pips in the wrong direction, and pardon me but no grid system can handle that.

BTW i`ve put my U pattern trading on hold ,as i found something much more reliable.The pattern in itself could work, since its a volatility pattern, but i`m not interested right now to research more about it.

I`m currently more a fundamental trader as i lost pretty much all of my confidence in technicals.Maybe i make an exception for volatility patterns, but i`m not entirely sure about them, and dont really care much.

So fundamentals by all means for me now
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,897
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:02am Jan 18, 2014 4:02am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} I made much more than that 9 pips, and Magix is not my friend. Yeah a martingale is the worst thing you want to add to a no sl method.Atleast with a no -stoploss if you withdraw cash regularly (weekly lol) you can survive for a while. Add martingale to it and you exponentially increase your chance of a margin call.Just hit lot size ^ 8, combined with a leverage of 1:200, its a pure margin call after a few pips in the wrong direction, and pardon me but no grid system can handle that. BTW i`ve put my U pattern trading on hold ,as i...
Prox, just learn to follow price....not anticipate, simply follow. Virtual stops come in the manner in which you place your orders long and short. The market will decide. You just need to participate in a regular and disciplined manner.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,898
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:06am Jan 18, 2014 4:06am
Quoting Turveyd
Sorry Magix, I think you have some pretty serious mental issues, you have all these wild ideas of how to trade,lets face it, its bollox isn't it, you have no way to implement any if it, obviously. Its all just marketing speal,I presume your a sales man in real life ? Huge ego, tiny brain, believe everything you say is true, therefore everyone else MUST be wrong, that's why you keep pushing your method on all, its too complicated it's not based on any kinda logic, give up, take a year off, eat some humble pie, then start again from scratch imho....
Nah its nothing wild about his ideas, its just average newbieness, i`ve seen many other newbies on other forums who did the same, and pretty much all of them got a margin call sooner or later.But they kept repeating the same stupidity over and over again very religiously, until they got either broke or gave up trading.

And a margin call wiping out your account for the 10th time can hurt your personal finance pretty much.Its worse than gambling addiction, atleast there you have some basic chance of winning the jackpot.With his system the only jackpot he will get is an empty wallet.

Besides hes not a salesman, he is not diplomatic at all and very unpolite with people, i doubt he can sell anything with this attitude.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,899
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:20am Jan 18, 2014 4:20am
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} The problem being that S/R is subjective, and I would guess (and put a high probability on that guess being correct) that a system like you've described, were it to be traded mechanically per the rules outlined above, would be whipsawed by too many "false breakouts" in the long run to beat the market (ignoring trading costs, which would certainly pull you below beating a passive investment). Now, throw in discretion on when to trade the S/R, and you may very well beat the market if you are good (or underperform the market if you are bad)....
Actually I don't use this system per se. I am too greedy I suppose. The point is that precision prediction is simply not needed to to trade this or any other market. Enough experience to get a feel for the market- Good money management skills - Sometimes a little timely daring - The ability to see when you are wrong- These skills are more important than that one.

I use calculations from time to time, but I am more of an intuitive type. To me it's a matter not of calculations as of training your intuition to get things right. The art of exiting the trade is just as, often, more important than, the art of entry. An untrained intuition can get in the way of any calculation. Sole dependence on EAs is not for me. I don't like machines telling me what to do any more than I like people doing that.
  • #1,900
  • Jan 18, 2014 4:30am Jan 18, 2014 4:30am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Prox, just learn to follow price....not anticipate, simply follow. Virtual stops come in the manner in which you place your orders long and short. The market will decide. You just need to participate in a regular and disciplined manner.

See your approx +1.4% on the week over all, good job playing both sides hey.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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