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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,861
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:59pm Jan 17, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} I think we have some common ideas about the market. Let me explain more detailed how i think the market is pseudo-random. A pseudo random number generator usually has the same initial condition set for all the numbers generated, therefore since its not true-random, patterns will arise. Now the initial conditions of the market are always the news, there is just no way the big market mover banks will ignore the fundamentals, even if newbie retailers do ignore them, which is a big mistake. But still the fundamentals have huge effect...
Think you've got your bidder and askers bit the wrong way around, bidders are buyers, askers are sellers!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,862
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:01pm Jan 17, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} A) Mine field, yes, but what else we got, in 2 years of quantitative analysis of the markets, i have not found any better edge than the fundamentals, if you find something better then definitely tell me, but for me there is just no other solution. Definitely better than some silly Stochastic & ADX bullshit system B) I think i will get many flames for what i just said.Technical analysts are very angry now

I already have, but do you listen, well NO LOL

Stoc's and all the rest total wastes of time, most are such simple math's how anyone can put any merit in them is just ludicrous!!

TA loving Troll's will be invading us next!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,863
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:03pm Jan 17, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Think you've got your bidder and askers bit the wrong way around, bidders are buyers, askers are sellers!!
LOL, What?

OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_BUY,LOT,NormalizeDouble(Ask,Digits),MAX_SLIPPAGE,0,0,"SPR: "+DoubleToStr(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_SPREAD),0)+" P",magic,0,Blue);

OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_SELL,LOT,NormalizeDouble(Bid,Digits),MAX_SLIPPAGE,0,0,"SPR: "+DoubleToStr(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_SPREAD),0)+" P",magic,0,Red);
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,864
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:06pm Jan 17, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} LOL, What? OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_BUY,LOT,NormalizeDouble(Ask,Digits),MAX_SLIPPAGE,0,0,"SPR: "+DoubleToStr(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_SPREAD),0)+" P",magic,0,Blue); OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_SELL,LOT,NormalizeDouble(Bid,Digits),MAX_SLIPPAGE,0,0,"SPR: "+DoubleToStr(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_SPREAD),0)+" P",magic,0,Red);

Seriously, ignore the code, Buyers line up at the Low price, ie BID and Vice versa. Obviously we sell at the Bid, to a buyer!! but ECN account buy at the BID with a limit order, or market order goes at the ASK.


But atleast your starting to see it's the imbalance which moved the market rather than the VOLUME finally, why market are flat line then up 200pips over xmas holiday periods, lack of volume creates madness.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,865
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:11pm Jan 17, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I already have, but do you listen, well NO LOL Stoc's and all the rest total wastes of time, most are such simple math's how anyone can put any merit in them is just ludicrous!! TA loving Troll's will be invading us next!!
Ok i`m listening but i hope its not a bullshit indicator system.

So what method you use to trade which is not TA?

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Seriously, ignore the code, Buyers line up at the Low price, ie BID and Vice versa. But atleast your starting to see it's the imbalance which moved the market rather than the VOLUME finally, why market are flat line then up 200pips over xmas holiday periods, lack of volume creates madness.
How can i ignore the code.That was just the code from my EA.

In MT4 you enter long at the ASK price, and enter short at the BID price.

Of course you exit the long at the BID and exit the short at the ASK, this causes the spread phenomena, because your ASK price BUY order will be echanged with a seller who sold at the BID, and so as many BUY traders are waiting for their order execution, this drives the price up, and when the BIDDERS start to appear, this will jump down the price, sort to balance itself.

This this is the exchange rate mechanism of the forex market.I just cant deny that.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,866
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:17pm Jan 17, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Ok i`m listening but i hope its not a bullshit indicator system. So what method you use to trade which is not TA? {quote} How can i ignore the code.That was just the code from my EA. In MT4 you enter long at the ASK price, and enter short at the BID price. Of course you exit the long at the BID and exit the short at the ASK, this causes the spread phenomena, because your ASK price BUY order will be echanged with a seller who sold at the BID, and so as many BUY traders are waiting for their order execution, this drives the price up, and when...
Over in my journal ( all trollers will be banned ), take some time looking at it, it's just a simple SMA based, direction and range method but it works well!! feel free to ask questions over there.

No Bidders, ie the BID price, are Buyers waiting to buy at a lower price, common mistake don't worry, gets confusing.

We buy at ASK and SELL at BID instantly ofcourse, cause we SELL to the BIDDER who then buys our position.

( If any of our positions really go anywhere ofcourse )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,867
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:20pm Jan 17, 2014 3:20pm
Proxy. Stocks are affected more by fundamentals forex less so.it is normally geared into the price. NFP is a crazy trade day but see how some times it shoots up then down.i send my bud info most days regarding pairs for his alert service and its all based on simple observation. He then sticks .on chart a worthless ea and bam. His punters are happy. Be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,868
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:25pm Jan 17, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Over in my journal ( all trollers will be banned ), take some time looking at it, it's just a simple SMA based, direction and range method but it works well!! feel free to ask questions over there. No Bidders, ie the BID price, are Buyers waiting to buy at a lower price, common mistake don't worry, gets confusing. We buy at ASK and SELL at BID instantly ofcourse, cause we SELL to the BIDDER who then buys our position. ( If any of our positions really go anywhere ofcourse )
Ok i will check it out.

But just to clear up i illustraded how the trades are placed and at which prices , on this pic, sorry if my drawing is bad:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ORDERS.png Size: 18 KB
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,869
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:25pm Jan 17, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} I am ok now. In a pub next to fire warming up. Landlady having a go at me for the mad dog incident last week lol. How often does one see a bad report and that countries currency follows suit predictive and how many times do you see the opposite happen. Look at weekend gapping it is almost guaranteed to retrace predictive but sometimes doesnt random. This kills traders mainly newbies with big ideas
Yes, I've never traded gaps, but have some trading buddies who give it a try every Sunday. I tell them they should have better things to do on a Sunday afternoon -- lol. Best of luck with the landlady. Sitting in a pub next to a fire sounds good right now, it's 14F and snowing where I live. Have a good evening.
  • #1,870
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:30pm Jan 17, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Ok i will check it out. But just to clear up i illustraded how the trades are placed and at which prices , on this pic, sorry if my drawing is bad: {image}

That's what we do, but there ECN, they BUY by placing a Limit order, you can see them all on L2, then we sell to them, so they don't have a spread as such, why they pay a commision. Obviously they can take the ASK and buy immediately, but that's a seller on the ASK the same as the BID, confused you will be.



The same as you BID on Ebay to buy something, the BID's are BUY requests in trading to.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,871
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:31pm Jan 17, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Yes, I've never traded gaps, but have some trading buddies who give it a try every Sunday. I tell them they should have better things to do on a Sunday afternoon -- lol. Best of luck with the landlady. Sitting in a pub next to a fire sounds good right now, it's 14F and snowing where I live. Have a good evening.
I never traded gaps but if we got to Monday and I had a set up say off an inside bar and also start of a daily range I would hit it big time. And I would use the gap as more info. It didnt happen often
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,872
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:31pm Jan 17, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Yes, I've never traded gaps, but have some trading buddies who give it a try every Sunday. I tell them they should have better things to do on a Sunday afternoon -- lol. Best of luck with the landlady. Sitting in a pub next to a fire sounds good right now, it's 14F and snowing where I live. Have a good evening.

Gaps never made sense, guess it's something to feed there adiction over the weekend, planning for a gap and watching the price move kinda over the weekend.


14f and snowing sounds great to me, and people say it's too cold to snow here, when it's +36f LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,873
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:34pm Jan 17, 2014 3:34pm
Proxy, ECN spreads are pretty much always 1 pippete as you call them, there 16 or 40 for us cause our commision is in the spread.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,874
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:34pm Jan 17, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} That's what we do, but there ECN, they BUY by placing a Limit order, you can see them all on L2, then we sell to them, so they don't have a spread as such, why they pay a commision. Obviously they can take the ASK and buy immediately, but that's a seller on the ASK the same as the BID, confused you will be. The same as you BID on Ebay to buy something, the BID's are BUY requests in trading to.
Of course if there is no spread then ASK=BID, but i trade with an STP broker so i have to count in the spread.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,875
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:38pm Jan 17, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Gaps never made sense, guess it's something to feed there adiction over the weekend, planning for a gap and watching the price move kinda over the weekend. 14f and snowing sounds great to me, and people say it's too cold to snow here, when it's +36f LOL
Depends what type of gap, weekend gap is bullshit because the market does move on weekend, the fact that your broker doesnt let you trade is just because the low liquidity the spreads would be in the sky.

But gaps between candlesticks thats another story.It may signal a missing bidders or askers, but i dont think it gives you any edge.It the same chance that after a gap a bidder or an asker will join.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,876
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:40pm Jan 17, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Of course if there is no spread then ASK=BID, but i trade with an STP broker so i have to count in the spread.

Me to, but 100% SURE, BIDDERS are BUYERS dude!!

Just trust me on this!! LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,877
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:42pm Jan 17, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Depends what type of gap, weekend gap is bullshit because the market does move on weekend, the fact that your broker doesnt let you trade is just because the low liquidity the spreads would be in the sky. But gaps between candlesticks thats another story.It may signal a missing bidders or askers, but i dont think it gives you any edge.It the same chance that after a gap a bidder or an asker will join.

Gaps between candles are merely movement in that millisecond, between the close then the open, definately no edge, just chart glitches.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,878
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:47pm Jan 17, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Depends what type of gap, weekend gap is bullshit because the market does move on weekend, the fact that your broker doesnt let you trade is just because the low liquidity the spreads would be in the sky. But gaps between candlesticks thats another story.It may signal a missing bidders or askers, but i dont think it gives you any edge.It the same chance that after a gap a bidder or an asker will join.
I mentioned weekend gaps as an example. The market is open 24/7 as we all know but the trading shops are closed fri evening until sun AND things happen during this time hence the gap. And they normally return
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,879
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:03pm Jan 17, 2014 4:03pm
Quoting Proximus
Too many theories and not much proof {quote} Redlion please make a poll where we can vote , how the market is, starting with the combinations: GEfx: Theory A : True-random , Efficient GEfx: Theory B: Non-Random , Inefficient PipMeUp: Theory C: True-Random,Inefficient Proximus: Theory D: Pseudo-Random with changing "seed" according to market sentiment and caused...
The markets are efficient in the sense that there are no free arbitrage opportunities sitting around for a retail hero to take advantage of. The market distributions also have fat tails, indicating the presence of trends, an inefficiency.

So efficient with trends? Mostly efficient but with some inefficiency in market structure?

Randomness simply means you can't predict price movement ahead of time. If you could then the market wouldn't be random, but deterministic. Some market participants claim to be able to predict some of the time. Somewhat random? Somewhat unrealistic?

These labels are so black and white while the market mostly frustrates all attempts to categorize into such nice boxes. It is what it is.

So from my perspective I say the market is both efficient and random and yet has opportunity for profit as stated above, which is counter to the OP's original premise.
  • #1,880
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:10pm Jan 17, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting FXEZ
{quote} The markets are efficient in the sense that there are no free arbitrage opportunities sitting around for a retail hero to take advantage of. The market distributions also have fat tails, indicating the presence of trends, an inefficiency. So efficient with trends? Mostly efficient but with some inefficiency in market structure? Randomness simply means you can't predict price movement ahead of time. If you could then the market wouldn't be random, but deterministic. Some market participants claim to be able to predict some of the time. Somewhat...
How well put...at the end of the day does it really matter as long as the traders go along in the right direction
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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