why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 93 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,841
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:14pm Jan 17, 2014 4:14pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Maybe I'm there with you!
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Am I the only one in group C, who sees a random, inefficient market?
Group D , pseudorandom market ,where the "seed" is changing according to the current sentiment caused by fundamentals.
So its also inefficient because fundamentals give you the edge.

Besides the randomness is probably caused by the chaotic and irrational behaviour of the traders.The market is alteast as random as the topic on this thread
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,842
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:16pm Jan 17, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} A) My system is the purest definition of market predictability and I have shown reference to this. B) Each system Jump you make is into the same horse shit idea of following some magical set of streaming Moving Averages, without any concept of actual market. Your jumps from time frame to time frame and system to system aren't really huge leaps, they are just variances of the consistent failures. C) You posted a 25 pip gain and showed a screen shot of 14...Even at a net total of 20, it is still a lot off. The largest numbers on this little...

a) In your opinion, in most other peoples it's BS so get over yourself.
b) LIAR!!
c) No I exited around 1.8725 the price was at 25 it's an abreviation, market order and slow phone connection I got 23's no big deal.
d) why else, would you keep bigging yourself up, but never provide proof of profits yourself ( short term demo account TE's don't count, there bait )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,843
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:18pm Jan 17, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} Group D , pseudorandom market ,where the "seed" is changing according to the current sentiment caused by fundamentals. So its also inefficient because fundamentals give you the edge. Besides the randomness is probably caused by the chaotic and irrational behaviour of the traders.The market is alteast as random as the topic on this thread

e) Aliens


ever notice US session is definately more chaotic than UK session, wonder why!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,844
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:21pm Jan 17, 2014 4:21pm
Hey Magix, don't forget to pull your TE's over the weekend and open new demo account, HUGE losses today, yeah your doing really well LOL


HUGE Losses!! -25.7% & -43.6% & -4.2% & -55.9%



NEW ID time mate




LOL

Good timing there hey!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,845
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:26pm Jan 17, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} a) In your opinion, in most other peoples it's BS so get over yourself. b) LIAR!! c) No I exited around 1.8725 the price was at 25 it's an abreviation, market order and slow phone connection I got 23's no big deal. d) why else, would you keep bigging yourself up, but never provide proof of profits yourself ( short term demo account TE's don't count, there bait )
A) Who are these other people? You and Mikk?
B) Well, what ever dogshit system you continue to hop to, has a proven track record of FAILURE. 8 Years and can't bust $500? Maybe you consider this success?
C) You stated 25 pips and 5% on the trade. How is this an abbreviation of anything? Liar.
D) I have no idea what you are talking about...I show open and live trades, as well as where the profit or lose. All of them? Nope, there is no point. The use of the TEs as well as the myfxbook links are for a specific purpose. I still fail to see how my using trade explorers or running EAs in demo makes me a Scammer. Again, you still have 2 fists full of fuck all when you dig for proof of this, but continue to abuse this word in reference to me. Does it make you feel better to think this way? Are you really this pathetic?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,846
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:26pm Jan 17, 2014 4:26pm
Too many theories and not much proof

Quoting the redlion
I am curious ...
Redlion please make a poll where we can vote , how the market is, starting with the combinations:

GEfx: Theory A : True-random , Efficient
GEfx: Theory B: Non-Random , Inefficient
PipMeUp: Theory C: True-Random,Inefficient
Proximus: Theory D: Pseudo-Random with changing "seed" according to market sentiment and caused by fundamentals , Inefficient

Please let us vote on these 4 theories and shall see which one is the "ultimate truth"
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,847
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:29pm Jan 17, 2014 4:29pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} A) Who are these other people? You and Mikk? B) Well, what ever dogshit system you continue to hop to, has a proven track record of FAILURE. 8 Years and can't bust $500? Maybe you consider this success? C) You stated 25 pips and 5% on the trade. How is this an abbreviation of anything? Liar. D) I have no idea what you are talking about...I show open and live trades, as well as where the profit or lose. All of them? Nope, there is no point. The use of the TEs as well as the myfxbook links are for a specific purpose. I still fail to see how...
a) don't pick a fight above your weight limit.
b) your a LIAR!!
c) look at how well your TE's did today, your bashing me, while showing -55.6% on your demo accounts thankfully hey!!
d) you haven't cracked it, your still a demo trader, my 21pips is 21 real pips, $21 you make, ZERO thankfully for you.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,848
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:31pm Jan 17, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting Proximus
Too many theories and not much proof {quote} Redlion please make a poll where we can vote , how the market is, starting with the combinations: GEfx: Theory A : True-random , Efficient GEfx: Theory B: Non-Random , Inefficient PipMeUp: Theory C: True-Random,Inefficient Proximus: Theory D: Pseudo-Random with changing "seed" according to market sentiment and caused...

D kinda, but not quite!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,849
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:31pm Jan 17, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Right, you sit down and perform analysis of the chart. But, if you are from Group A, your analysis is useless because the market is random. Your analysis is an illusion, and any move you make is a foolish guess. If you are from Group B, your perspective is quite different. Your analysis is based on market observations, etc. Your performance is based on your ability to execute a winning strategy (and for those in Group C, something in between). It has to be pretty difficult to be in Group A and attempt to become a retail trader. If you don't...
Hi. Was that aimed at me specifically.my belief is and I have stated several times that the market is not a random due to it being worked by humans YET it becomes random.. that is why most traders get wiped out. You can predict you'll have a loss using a method this is where a good trader performs best. And as for group categories I was I suppose all of them. Still on phone but atleast on terra firma
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,850
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:35pm Jan 17, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I was being nice on the most part Haven't studied all of it to be fair, just enough to realise Nahhhh not for me. If TA only works, by random chance ie 50% area of the time then does it really work ?? But your arguement was the market is random because TA doesn't work maybe ?? but that's assuming TA works, first you have to prove that
OK, I understand that you haven't studied it well enough, and that it's not for you. As for when to use it, you don't randomly apply TA. You apply it when market conditions warrant their use. That is to say, you use the tools that fit your interpretation of market structure, and trade only while the structure and TA are working together. I know there are other methods, so please don't think I am advocating for a single approach.
  • #1,851
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:38pm Jan 17, 2014 4:38pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi. Was that aimed at me specifically.my belief is and I have stated several times that the market is not a random due to it being worked by humans YET it becomes random.. that is why most traders get wiped out. You can predict you'll have a loss using a method this is where a good trader performs best. And as for group categories I was I suppose all of them. Still on phone but atleast on terra firma
Hi billytt, wasn't aiming anything at you, but replying to your two posts. Hope all is well with you.
  • #1,852
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:41pm Jan 17, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting Turveyd
Hey Magix, don't forget to pull your TE's over the weekend and open new demo account, HUGE losses today, yeah your doing really well LOL HUGE Losses!! -25.7% & -43.6% & -4.2% & -55.9% NEW ID time mate LOL Good timing there hey!!
See HERE.

Do you think my feelings are hurt because of this?

They are on demo for a reason. And why would I need a new ID? Because a couple of M1 EAs haven't made the grade?

You see the only one that really matters to me in the lot of the 4 is THIS ONE. Reason being, it is the one I have my thread based on.

The stats are out for all to see. When I say that it can prosper in 70% of the cases, it is because it has proven to. Adding logic to this as a trade system can only make it better. It is a tool, like I have stated over and over. These tools can help others learn market.

See Post.

I do see that you are all sensitive because I have called you out and exposed you for your bullshit...Instead of being a pissy little whiner, why not put in a solid effort and do as nub suggested...start getting smarter or quieter.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,853
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:42pm Jan 17, 2014 4:42pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} OK, I understand that you haven't studied it well enough, and that it's not for you. As for when to use it, you don't randomly apply TA. You apply it when market conditions warrant their use. That is to say, you use the tools that fit your interpretation of market structure, and trade only while the structure and TA are working together. I know there are other methods, so please don't think I am advocating for a single approach.

I do the same, I only trade my method at times / conditions I've tested it in, so that's fair enough, until recently likely didn't have the expertise to pick when to and not to trade so might get different TA results ofcourse, I kinda had a knack for WORST times to trade LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,854
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:43pm Jan 17, 2014 4:43pm
Quoting Proximus
Too many theories and not much proof {quote} Redlion please make a poll where we can vote , how the market is, starting with the combinations: GEfx: Theory A : True-random , Efficient GEfx: Theory B: Non-Random , Inefficient PipMeUp: Theory C: True-Random,Inefficient Proximus: Theory D: Pseudo-Random with changing "seed" according to market sentiment and caused...
B)Non-Random, Inefficient.

This one has my vote.

I can forecast where market will go...I just don't know when it will get there. Market does pick the shortest path between 2 points...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,855
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:44pm Jan 17, 2014 4:44pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} See HERE. Do you think my feelings are hurt because of this? They are on demo for a reason. And why would I need a new ID? Because a couple of M1 EAs haven't made the grade? You see the only one that really matters to me in the lot of the 4 is THIS ONE. Reason being, it is the one I have my thread based on. The stats are out for all to see. When I say that it can prosper in 70% of the cases, it is because it has...
I have no BS to expose, I hate BS, so why would I ever BS about myself ??

It's your opinion it's BS with no substance to back it up, but your allowed to post that and bash me and my method's, but I'm not allowed to call you a scammer.


So how about dropping it, and leaving each other be ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,856
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:47pm Jan 17, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} B)Non-Random, Inefficient. This one has my vote. I can forecast where market will go...I just don't know when it will get there.
Exactly what I was going to say.
  • #1,857
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:49pm Jan 17, 2014 4:49pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} D kinda, but not quite!!
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi. Was that aimed at me specifically.my belief is and I have stated several times that the market is not a random due to it being worked by humans YET it becomes random.. that is why most traders get wiped out. You can predict you'll have a loss using a method this is where a good trader performs best. And as for group categories I was I suppose all of them. Still on phone but atleast on terra firma
I think we have some common ideas about the market.

Let me explain more detailed how i think the market is pseudo-random.

A pseudo random number generator usually has the same initial condition set for all the numbers generated, therefore since its not true-random, patterns will arise.

Now the initial conditions of the market are always the news, there is just no way the big market mover banks will ignore the fundamentals, even if newbie retailers do ignore them, which is a big mistake.

But still the fundamentals have huge effect on the price flow.So the ticks are generated in a pretty predictable mattern, by the matching orders algorithm which couples all traders orders.So since this nice algoritm matches the orders it cant really be true random cant it?

First-in-first-out type matching of orders:


If too much bidders and less askers -> prices go down, but soon the askers will join and swing back the price upwards

If too much askers and less bidders-> prices go up, but soon the bidders will join and swing back the price downwards

Predictable & the distribution of ticks follows a pretty simple pattern, so its not true random by any chance so must be pseudo/random-like

No algorithm can generate true random numbers, but it can disguise itself very well.Besides patterns do repeat themselves (weather they are efficient or not doesnt matter).

And as new news come in, GDP reports, hourly wages, NFP, and others, it will shape the market accordingly.The sentiment changes, so the underlying "seed", the initial condition which upon the ticks will appear will change , therefore the market changes shape or structure.But still becomes predictable.

And i also believe the fundamentals give an edge also, by knowing the sentiment is bullish or bearish, you have more than 50% now to predict the price.And the sentiment only changes by the fundamentals , so there you go your edge.

And the inefficiency is only for those who take advantage of the edge, so only fundamental analysts can be profitable in the long term.

So technical analysis is only for newbies
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,858
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:49pm Jan 17, 2014 4:49pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi billytt, wasn't aiming anything at you, but replying to your two posts. Hope all is well with you.
I am ok now. In a pub next to fire warming up. Landlady having a go at me for the mad dog incident last week lol.
How often does one see a bad report and that countries currency follows suit predictive and how many times do you see the opposite happen. Look at weekend gapping it is almost guaranteed to retrace predictive but sometimes doesnt random. This kills traders mainly newbies with big ideas
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,859
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:51pm Jan 17, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} a) so only fundamental analysts can be profitable in the long term.
b) So technical analysis is only for newbies

a) No, as Fundamentals change, so they'd have to predict future analysis, which is another mine field.

b) I'd agree with that.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,860
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:58pm Jan 17, 2014 4:58pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} a) No, as Fundamentals change, so they'd have to predict future analysis, which is another mine field. b) I'd agree with that.
A) Mine field, yes, but what else we got, in 2 years of quantitative analysis of the markets, i have not found any better edge than the fundamentals, if you find something better then definitely tell me, but for me there is just no other solution.

Definitely better than some silly Stochastic & ADX bullshit system

B) I think i will get many flames for what i just said.Technical analysts are very angry now
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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