why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 91 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,801
  • Jan 17, 2014 1:49pm Jan 17, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting GEfx
I know there are people here (call them Group A) who see a random, efficient market, while others (Group B) see an inefficient, non random market.
Am I the only one in group C, who sees a random, inefficient market?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #1,802
  • Jan 17, 2014 1:54pm Jan 17, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Am I the only one in group C, who sees a random, inefficient market?
I would say that this is subjective based on your specific context.

Really not enough information to side with or against you on this one.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,803
  • Jan 17, 2014 1:59pm Jan 17, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Red, back to your first post. One interpretation of this is that, if the market is efficient and random, then trading it is stupid and a waste of money. My experience is just the opposite (I have documented much of my trading in my Journal). I know there are people here (call them Group A) who see a random, efficient market, while others (Group B) see an inefficient, non random market. So, here's a chart. When considering a traders job, what are the differences between the two groups? I know they disagree on how the chart formed. And no...
Good question. As I am on a boat bobbing up and down and using phone. I cannot view chart too well nor the time frame. But if it is say hourly 4 hourly daily. I would of drawn levels off highs/lows res/support and it is uptrend. So thats a start. Next look for inside bar or maybe you like candles with long tails. Ema cross. Look for clues. Most eas are drawn off simple signals
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,804
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:07pm Jan 17, 2014 2:07pm
Gefx. Also the the last part of your chart. It seems to be levelling off .known as Proxys boobs. This area is indecision. This has happened already on your chart. Check it out. I cant type too well as I am getting cold n wet. Ask questions I am glad to help
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,805
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:23pm Jan 17, 2014 2:23pm
Advice first " STOP Trolling Profitable Experienced Traders, you don't understand how I trade cause your a newbie, maybe if you stopped trolling you'd learn something"


Here is the chart for my trade I did earlier, on my phone in the park ( that's a requirement, simple enough to trade via phone when bored )

Took trade 1, at 1.87152 as trend line support, that broke expected really SL hunt, then took another on strength near my lower white Envelope line, 1.87065, SL at 1.8694 area ( I draw a line on the screen )

I took a profit other side of the yellow range, it did ultimately go to the top of the white 120 Envelope range.

IF you'd stop trolling for more than 2mins and actually looked at my method, you'd see all markets follow this same pattern, in flat markets you can bat 1 side to the other fairly safely, only losing on trend changes, so basically EASY money.

Yes you need some trading sense to go along side it and spot trend changes, but above works, so plain and simple the market is not random.

Stop trolling, cut out the BS and maybe, just maybe you'd actually learn something and stop losing money and being so angry!!
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Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,806
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:27pm Jan 17, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
It all depends on what you mean by Price, Predictability and assumption....Why do you need to predict price? When current market price breaks a line of support/resistance it usually does so for a reason, Be it money flow relationships, candle patterns, fundamental news breaks, whatever.
The problem being that S/R is subjective, and I would guess (and put a high probability on that guess being correct) that a system like you've described, were it to be traded mechanically per the rules outlined above, would be whipsawed by too many "false breakouts" in the long run to beat the market (ignoring trading costs, which would certainly pull you below beating a passive investment). Now, throw in discretion on when to trade the S/R, and you may very well beat the market if you are good (or underperform the market if you are bad). Of course, now you're subjectively deciding when to trade your subjective S/R (and there's nothing wrong with that, there are definitely some famous traders who have essentially made their money doing just that, whether it was S/R or some other tool like MAs).
  • #1,807
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:31pm Jan 17, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting Turveyd
cut out the BS and maybe, just maybe you'd actually learn something and stop losing money and being so angry!! {image} {image}
Quoting Turveyd
Out 25 ish for a quick 5% {image}
Um...well, this is in fact something that would resemble proof...

Only thing is...

14 and 25 are 2 very different numbers.

Even if we took the "ish" into consideration...

You Fool!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,808
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:38pm Jan 17, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} {quote} Um...well, this is in fact something that would resemble proof... Only thing is... 14 and 25 are 2 very different numbers. Even if we took the "ish" into consideration... You Fool!

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand...

IF we took this as 5% of your account, you have whittled your $500 down to about $300, meaning that you are actually going in reverse.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,809
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:48pm Jan 17, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand... IF we took this as 5% of your account, you have whittled your $500 down to about $300, meaning that you are actually going in reverse.
dont be that hard man...
even 80% succes rate systems have some bad trades
(i like r/r on that 1st trade )
and, on the other side, im sure that is the litlle account, he opened special for us to show

anyway, i apreciate turv`s effort
  • #1,810
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:55pm Jan 17, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} {quote} Um...well, this is in fact something that would resemble proof... Only thing is... 14 and 25 are 2 very different numbers. Even if we took the "ish" into consideration... You Fool!

25 ish, ie 1.8725 I actually see it was 220 and 233, I don't pay that much attention to the detail, as said traded off phone.

R:R 1:1 on that trade, so that's fine.



More like +4%, +5% on the week, with the little 7pipper!!


But that's not the point, look at the lines and how the market moves.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,811
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:57pm Jan 17, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting bradu
{quote} dont be that hard man... even 80% succes rate systems have some bad trades (i like r/r on that 1st trade ) and, on the other side, im sure that is the litlle account, he opened special for us to show anyway, i apreciate turv`s effort

R:R over all was 1:1 but I rarely lose so it's all good, held longer like I should get 1:1.5 area, I expected 3pips lower when I place it aswell, caught a spike!!


That's sideways trades, I shoulda been shorting EJ today, some cracking setups to enter on that.


But hey I'm just a troll, so no point listening to my method hey!! 1:4 RR easy!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,812
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:00pm Jan 17, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting bradu
{quote} dont be that hard man... even 80% succes rate systems have some bad trades (i like r/r on that 1st trade ) and, on the other side, im sure that is the litlle account, he opened special for us to show anyway, i apreciate turv`s effort

Yeah...I just looked at the trade times...

Close both at the same time.

So, he was actually in the shit on one...cost averaged in and took out both for around net 20.

Meaning...

All that fucking wailing about running grids when he is cost averaging is just more bullshit.

Reason he cannot define his "System"...is that he doesn't actually have one, he just pushes buttons and crosses his fingers and isn't really sure of what he is talking about on any other subject...

Go figure.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,813
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:02pm Jan 17, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting Magix
{quote}, he just pushes buttons and crosses his fingers and isn't really sure of what he is talking about on any other subject... Go figure. {image}
for 80% i would keep my fingers crossed too, hell, i would add a prayer for another 10%,
  • #1,814
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:04pm Jan 17, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Yeah...I just looked at the trade times... Close both at the same time. So, he was actually in the shit on one...cost averaged in and took out both for around net 20. Meaning... All that fucking wailing about running grids when he is cost averaging is just more bullshit. Reason he cannot define his "System"...is that he doesn't actually have one, he just pushes buttons and crosses his fingers and isn't really sure of what he is talking about on any other subject... Go figure. {image}

Cost averaging, from a MartinGaler LOL who doesn't use SL's, LOL!!

Yep 9 profitable trades in a row, maybe crossing my fingers actually works LOL

All with equally as tight SL's as the second trade I should point out.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,815
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:07pm Jan 17, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting bradu
{quote} for 80% i would keep my fingers crossed too, hell, i would add a prayer for another 10%,

Prefer trend trades, can hold for longer like hours and rack up some serious R:R

I'd of held longer, but 6 year old just as I placed the 2nd trade decided to climb over a gate in the park and jump down, bashed his head and knee and was screaming his head off, couldn't watch, so just profit that'll do, exit!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,816
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:08pm Jan 17, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting bradu
{quote} for 80% i would keep my fingers crossed too, hell, i would add a prayer for another 10%,
Unless I have missed something here...

There is absolutely zero evidence that he has:
Hit 80% on his trades.
Managed this number consistently.
or
Increased his account size. There is no proof that the 20% of the time that he is wrong doesn't completely erase all gains and a little more.

Going off of his math and his word...even if we took the sum of both trades to equal 5% of his account, that still only leaves him with a $400 account size and he has openly stated that he will not open another account for the purposes of a TE, meaning...we have to take him at word that at one point this account was $500...that shit is stated several times.

Meaning

Why the fuck would anybody brag about an 80% win ratio if it consistently costs them money?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,817
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:13pm Jan 17, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} 9 pips dont have anything to do with fundamentals. Fundamentals take months to get translated into prices. One data figure does not mean anything in this sense too. It takes months of data or say a trend of data figs to change the view of policymakers and traders sentiment towards the related instrument pricing. In the shortterm its just the mass's expectations of news outcomes and results whether the outcome met, above or below the expectation which fluctuates the market. .
Doesnt matter, it was the aftershock of the news, which triggered a very bearish sentiment on the AUD.

In long term it may affect the market too, but intraday speaking, the news can have an impact on the market even after hours of its release.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,818
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:14pm Jan 17, 2014 3:14pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Unless I have missed something here... There is absolutely zero evidence that he has: Hit 80% on his trades. Managed this number consistently. or Increased his account size. There is no proof that the 20% of the time that he is wrong doesn't completely erase all gains and a little more. Going off of his math and his word...even if we took the sum of both trades to equal 5% of his account, that still only leaves him with a $400 account size and he has openly stated that he will not open another account for the purposes of a TE, meaning...we...

Sorry, but how is any of that trolling on topic, it's an example of how the market via M1 is PREDICTABLE, can you get that into your stupid martingaling, no SL using head ??


Stop your bashing and F off!!

No that account was down to $340 experimenting with other methods, it's just under $500 here it's highest it's been, it's not been higher!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,819
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:18pm Jan 17, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Cost averaging, from a MartinGaler LOL who doesn't use SL's, LOL!! Yep 9 profitable trades in a row, maybe crossing my fingers actually works LOL All with equally as tight SL's as the second trade I should point out.

I run EAs that have the ability to cost average and either add on increment or use a multiplier.

Based on the system that I am running, over the last 2 weeks they are hitting 70% in accordance with the rules as dictated by my trade system thread.

70% an over 200 trades...

That kinda blows your shit right outa the water....

Additionally, I do cost average in trades...I have absolutely no problem doing that and NO, I will NEVER set a stop loss, because I don't have to.

Based on the areas of market that I trade, and Because of the "PREDICTABILITY" of market, I do take losses, but do not need to set a stop loss. Stops are typically, if not cost averaged, around spread.

Because you have zero idea how to trade or how price action actually works, you prop yourself on this canticle for support. Nobody is siding with you with exception of your pal Mikk...who is still shitting green as far as market is concerned.

So...

Again, you dipstick.

You mock because you cannot understand.
You push buttons wildly because you have no concept of market.
You hurl insults and call people trolls because we have exposed you for your ridiculous claims and absolute failure to understand the most simple of market concepts.

Really Turv

If you hit all 9 trades...where's the proof of that.

Why wouldn't you be boasting gains instead of continuously talking bullshit.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,820
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:19pm Jan 17, 2014 3:19pm
I'll be nice, give the newbies a chance!!

Here is EJ today, nice clear downtrend dictated by the 120sma lines going down,

So enter shorts near the upper yellow 21sma 0.07% envelope line and set SL by the dotted yellow lines and count the losers, ohhhh none!!



Market is not random, simple as, obviously most are trying to trade H4 which is much nearer random so I understand why they think this.



Troll's stop trying to disprove everything, you'll never be happy I get it, my account is big enough to count, bla bla bla bla bla for ever, GROW UP!!
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Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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