Box BreakOut

Hi All,

I am starting this thread for those who are interested in a high probability, no nonsense trading style. This is based on FXHards SSBO indicator and trading style.
This is not a place where we will talk about adding indicators or what filters might cut out a couple of losses here and there or any other nonsense of that type.

The trading will be done by an EA that I have developed, and no, it will not be made public or sold.

If you want to follow along as I run this experiment and discuss this method of trading, then welcome aboard.

I will be posting a LOT of charts as the trades are closed and I will also attach an Explorer that is linked to a small micro account that is running the EA.

eur/aud 15 minute chart.....3 trades in 2 days

3 more trades in 2 days ...CAD/JPY 15 min

EUR/JPY 15 min chart...this afternoon (Germany time CET)

LOSERS happen too! CAD/CHF 15 min

Nice easy money...no stress...just follow the rules! USD/CHF 1 hr

Another one....USD/CAD 1 hour

IF we get any interest in this thread, then we will talk about the rules as they are traded in the EA. As FX Hard has said so many times....it really is so simple that it is tough to wrap your mind around......

AUD/JPY 15 MIN

Hi Brian

Yeah I'll join in. Good luck with the the thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02007&page=361 give him an invite could be funny.

I do not see EA. I do not see rules for long / short ...

Ever see a blind man cross the road ...

As I said in post 1....I WILL NOT make the EA public...and if you would have read post #8....I have not laid out the rules as of yet. Please bear with me as we move forward.

How prophetic my friend!!! I will surely use this one again...LOL

I'm keen to follow. Subscribed.

Just an old song with great words

Ever seen a blind man cross the road
Trying to make the other side?
Ever seen a young girl growing old
Trying to make herself a bride?

So what becomes of you my love
When they have finally stripped you of
The handbags and the gladrags
That your poor old Grandad had to sweat to buy you

Once I was a young man
And all I thought I had to do was smile
Well you are still a young girl
And you've bought everything in style

So once you think you're in you're out
'Cause you don't mean a single thing without
The handbags and the gladrags
That your poor old Grandad had to sweat to buy you

Brian,

Thanks for starting this thread. I'm very interested to see your trading rules, when you post them. I've spoken at some length with ForexHard (he approached me to look at the possibility of writing an EA for SSBO), and I'd be interested to see how your approach differs from his.

For example, in your attachment to post #5, the SSBO indy shows, over its backtest of 35 breakout zones (CZs), a win rate of 45.7% (i.e. 16 out of the 35 trades won, the other 19 were stopped out). As the TP=22.5 and SL=17.8, this gives a profit factor of (16 x 22.5) / (19 x 17.8) = 1.06, which is only fractionally over breakeven.

If I understand ForexHard correctly (and since this is a commercial thread, he should be able to reply, which I'd also welcome), he uses a capped martingale to recover from the 19 losses. As we can see from the backtest, it was necessary to have 4 recovery trade levels (i.e. position sizes 1+2+4+8+16= a total of 31 x the original position size), to ensure 100% win rate over the 35 CZs. As with all martingales, you'd need to set your starting pos size extremely small (to allow 31 x the original size to be at risk, without a margin call), which would cripple the size of your winners commensurately.

If you don't use the martingale, then I suspect you must have a way of having the TP significantly larger than the SL, i.e. have RR >> 1 in order to obtain a decent profit factor, given the 45% win rate (although increasing the RR tends to lower the win rate).

Hence I'd be interested to know your formula for TP, SL and position sizing.

I agree that breakouts are a very robust concept, as price always follows a consolidation, expansion, consolidation, expansion, etc pattern, but the devil lies in the details — drawing the box in such a way, and in real time as the consolidation emerges, as to include all of the accumulation (and the deception/obfuscation) that's being employed by the heavyweights. Or, in other words, to reduce the number of fakeouts to the point that the method will deliver long term profit overall.

Incidentally, I think you're wise not to share your EA. I believe I've been much too generous in the past. If you share software, you get inundated with troubleshooting requests, and also folk who want the EA to be modified to meet their own personal trading method.

Good luck with your thread.

David

Very interesting, I keep my eyes open here.

Ready to learn !



:nerd:

Started to read this thread thanks to Claudia, very interesting. Best of luck.