why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 89 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,761
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:00pm Jan 16, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting Proximus
Ok its time to enter short after the AUD/USD hit back the levels before the news: {image} What do you think guys?

Looks like i got this one right, power of fundamentals +9 pips from this one for me.

Fundamentals can predict price
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,762
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:24pm Jan 16, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Well since the current FED rate is 0.25 you probably made more profit in the last week than you
r bank would give you if you'd deposited the money at them, so good job! What strategy did you used?
I follow price.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,763
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:26pm Jan 16, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Looks like i got this one right, power of fundamentals +9 pips from this one for me. Fundamentals can predict price
This is true. Fundamentals can predict price. But most traders are busy trading noise and handing over commissions and spreads to their broker.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,764
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:27pm Jan 16, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Bud, you are missing the point. I have been scalping for 3 days. I am playing out of boredom (lousy weather here) the time here in uk is 22-30 look at daily charts e/u inside bar, e/j and g/j outside bars, they should still be like that until midnight, I never ever traded g/j but after midnight see what happens, I am not saying tomorrow things will happen maybe the day after BUT the high/low will be broken, I am not speaking scalping I am speaking serious trading, Get your act together and trade , stats will help. maybe they may say e/j...
You can best help by linking your trades to an explorer for analysis.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,765
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:34pm Jan 16, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This is true. Fundamentals can predict price. But most traders are busy trading noise and handing over commissions and spreads to their broker.
Probably but if they trade high timeframe then i am the noise trader in their eyes since as i trade M1.

So the point is, trading structures is more practical than trading timeframes, if i see a structure supported by an economic factor then i can trade that.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,766
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:51pm Jan 16, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Probably but if they trade high timeframe then i am the noise trader in their eyes since as i trade M1. So the point is, trading structures is more practical than trading timeframes, if i see a structure supported by an economic factor then i can trade that.
In other words, if you spots a pullback in trend supported by news, then the probability for success is higher. But can you quantify how often you set up works? That is the basis of prediction.

If X occurs then Y will happen approximately Z number of times.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,767
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:53pm Jan 16, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} I don't think this thread was ever intended as a trading thread, but a thread for discussion (hence why it's in TRADING DISCUSSION and not INTERACTIVE TRADING). I sincerely doubt the original intent was to have traders throwing up screenshots of their methods and trades, which contributes very little towards the philosophical or theoretical aspect of whether markets are predictable. You could give us 100 winning trades with 100 screenshots, but unless you're articulating WHY you think those trades were winners, you haven't really contributed...

Well you know there are long standing jokes about the accuracy of weathermen!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,768
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:55pm Jan 16, 2014 11:55pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} In other words, if you spots a pullback in trend supported by news, then the probability for success is higher. But can you quantify how often you set up works? That is the basis of prediction. If X occurs then Y will happen approximately Z number of times.
Hard to quantify fundamentals, you have to look back every news in an economic calendar and see what impact did it have on following prices.

Or just use a demo account and test fundamental trading in reality.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,769
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:25am Jan 17, 2014 3:25am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} This looks to be the case. I think this type of relationship is trade-able. I for one will never trade against it. I have collect a group of 16 parent pairs that I use to check entries, etc. and have them on a chart in front of my screen with locations of the child and parent to guide me. When I am present, I will check them periodically ( during news events, Market opening times, etc.) If I see a move happening on one of the charts, a quick check of the parent pairs tells me whether to hop on for the ride. etc. Use wise money management...
Thanks, I think I am able to understand the relationship. But, another question I have, how do you see the influences are coming from equity market and indices to the forex?

Is that possible for you to prepare a table to show which indices are having influence to which currency pair, etc? TY.
  • #1,770
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:27am Jan 17, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Looks like i got this one right, power of fundamentals +9 pips from this one for me. Fundamentals can predict price
Fundamentals can predict Market Sentiment, with technical you can predict future price of the instrument.
  • #1,771
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:49am Jan 17, 2014 3:49am
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} I think we're on the same page. Quantifying the odds of what is often an intuitive thing (assuming discretionary trading here) is difficult without devoting yourself to it (instead of actually trading). I can't tell you any odds of my trades. I can't tell you what the odds of my next trade being successful are, because it's discretionary and all I can hope is that I get a good entry which runs in my favor, and can reasonably assess when that move has run out of steam. I also believe that the odds that most purely mechanical systems traders...
I agree yet again with a lot you say, left hand, right hand parts of brain gives traders their style plus you can have a cautious approach or be brash. nearly every trade I did for the last 2 years all happened working off stats/percentages (like poker). another important thing in trading I used was daily range. It does fit together like a jig saw until the random kicks in lol, be good trade well. I will not be around much, Some people are left brain led and others are right brain led but some of the people (almost said traders) in here have no brain at all, take care
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,772
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:55am Jan 17, 2014 3:55am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You can best help by linking your trades to an explorer for analysis.
I just broke my vow and took a look at your TE.. I didn't realise you were a basket/grid go long and short at the same time trader and you speak to me about analysis lol AND you dare to speak to T about trading lol RIP. don't forget what I posted page 88,,, keep your eye on e/u inside bar and e/j + gj outside bars..
Be good bud , I am now going out to speak to the trees, I will get more sense out of them
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,773
  • Jan 17, 2014 5:00am Jan 17, 2014 5:00am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Looks like i got this one right, power of fundamentals +9 pips from this one for me. Fundamentals can predict price
9 pips dont have anything to do with fundamentals.

Fundamentals take months to get translated into prices. One data figure does not mean anything in this sense too. It takes months of data or say a trend of data figs to change the view of policymakers and traders sentiment towards the related instrument pricing.

In the shortterm its just the mass's expectations of news outcomes and results whether the outcome met, above or below the expectation which fluctuates the market.
.
  • #1,774
  • Jan 17, 2014 5:27am Jan 17, 2014 5:27am
THE REASON WHY PRICE IS NON RANDOM.

IM POSTING THIS CHART TO ILLISTRATE THIS TRUTH.

this chart posted and the levels you see were formed using past data from monthly down to 15 mins and no additional levels have been added since early Tuesday.
the levels are calculated .giving the averaged price and there split high and low extremes for each time frame.the lower time frames are changing until we reach 3 levels of convergence,upper mid mean and lower,once this convergence takes place the lower time frame levels are unchanged.we have a temporary period of non random behaviour .this particular price phase began the previous Tuesday.this happens as daily and 4 hour 1 hour 15 min converge towards the monthly and weekly.this cycle is constant.as this phase is traded the next phase is in the making which we can see as new levels start to disperse more randomly away from this present state.

WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN

This happens because of the vast number of variables,
the longer term interest in this market is changing global economics,interest rates ,export costs ect ect,monthly.this part of the market has the most powerfull resources. we then scale down in time we have companies and funds and banks,these are doing there weekly thing with forecasts and hedging in futers generally maximising there need to do business protecting exposure,ect ect.then we have daily business . the intraday workings of exchange rates and filling endless requirements of money moving globally and speculators ect ect.thrown into the mix is daily news releases.this is the pit.

within this mass of variables there is a footprint.which allows us to predict and establish were price needs to go.

when the short term intraday supply and demand starts to converge with mid term interest and then converges to longer term interest we have a complete map.this is the order flow.as single participants try to make sense of price it does appear to be random but its certainly not. COLLECTIVLY AS A WHOLE WE ARE INFACT CREATING THE PREDICTABLE OUTCOME,we just don't realise it.its a little like the m and m phenomenon .individually we are wrong its random chance but collectively we predict the outcome,ill post that experiment for those that havnt seen it.

these are not after the event marks on a chart ,the levels of convergence were formed before any of this price action.trading these signals would have been extremely rewarding .ofcoarse there's always a possibility of a black swan but the risk is only the converged zone generally 20 to 30 pips.even the news releases have a predictive nature .todays cable went from lower split to high split.built in to our subconscious as a group we are building the outcome.

this outcome and the predictable part is the position that individuals are placing and prepared to trade at .as a group we converge because we are all very much the same.
Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg 70.jpg Size: 490 KB
  • #1,775
  • Jan 17, 2014 6:46am Jan 17, 2014 6:46am
Quoting diceman555
COLLECTIVLY AS A WHOLE WE ARE INFACT CREATING THE PREDICTABLE OUTCOME,we just don't realise it.its a little like the m and m phenomenon .individually we are wrong its random chance but collectively we predict the outcome

In that BBC documentary called The Code, There was this experiment where the guy put 4510 beans in a jar and asked 160 people how many beans they thought were in the Jar.

Nobody even came close and the range of guesses was from 400 to 50K.

But in the end when he took the average of all the guesses it was about 4514 beans.

Start watching at 42:50

Inserted Video

.
  • #1,776
  • Jan 17, 2014 6:48am Jan 17, 2014 6:48am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I just broke my vow and took a look at your TE.. I didn't realise you were a basket/grid go long and short at the same time trader and you speak to me about analysis lol AND you dare to speak to T about trading lol RIP. don't forget what I posted page 88,,, keep your eye on e/u inside bar and e/j + gj outside bars.. Be good bud , I am now going out to speak to the trees, I will get more sense out of them

LOL tis funny isn't it, so is Magix and that Mikkk00 there all into basket trading these days as they are of the opinion market is 100% random, told you no point talking to them.

He doesn't trade, he runs Magix's older basket EA and that's it, Sooner or later a big move will wipe the account, why it's so new.



We are all, to short a trade time span to be bothered by fundementals ( unless you hold for months, anyone ?? ) so not worth bothering with.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,777
  • Jan 17, 2014 7:13am Jan 17, 2014 7:13am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} LOL tis funny isn't it, so is Magix and that Mikkk00 there all into basket trading these days as they are of the opinion market is 100% random, told you no point talking to them. He doesn't trade, he runs Magix's older basket EA and that's it, Sooner or later a big move will wipe the account, why it's so new. We are all, to short a trade time span to be bothered by fundementals ( unless you hold for months, anyone ?? ) so not worth bothering with.
Dipstick,

Do you really need another beatdown?

Or when you get humiliated again, are you just going to again beg for mercy?

1. I don't trade baskets, nor do my automated EAs. If you actually knew or understood what basket trading is, you'd know the difference.
2. If you had managed to read and retain a single shred of information on any of my posts on market, then you would know that I actually believe that market is predictable to an extent. So much to the point I opened a whole new fucking thread based on SD zones created with this exact thing in mind.
3. Mikk is actually kicking your sorry ass in market. Doesn't mean I will be taking any long windy walks with him, just means that as worthless as tripe as he posts, it is actually still more benefit to any readers than the bullshit you continue to spew throughout FF.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,778
  • Jan 17, 2014 7:20am Jan 17, 2014 7:20am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Dipstick, Do you really need another beatdown? Or when you get humiliated again, are you just going to again beg for mercy? 1. I don't trade baskets, nor do my automated EAs. If you actually knew or understood what basket trading is, you'd know the difference. 2. If you had managed to read and retain a single shred of information on any of my posts on market, then you would know that I actually believe that market is predictable to an extent. So much to the point I opened a whole new fucking thread based on SD zones created with this exact...

I really don't care, I think your a major tool and I'm not having any more to do with you, do your worst it will all be ignored!!


Going to give me a beat down cause I said something, OMG grow up you stupid yank!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,779
  • Jan 17, 2014 7:23am Jan 17, 2014 7:23am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I really don't care, I think your a major tool and I'm not having any more to do with you, do your worst it will all be ignored!! Going to give me a beat down cause I said something, OMG grow up you stupid yank!
Hey Scurvy,

While you were trying to think of something witty to say...

I just beat your weekly gains.

Keep at it, dipstick...maybe go post some bullshit in a basket weaving forum.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bt.png Size: 21 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,780
  • Jan 17, 2014 7:28am Jan 17, 2014 7:28am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Hey Scurvy, While you were trying to think of something witty to say... I just beat your weekly gains. Keep at it, dipstick...maybe go post some bullshit in a basket weaving forum. {image}

Ahhhh I've pissed a SCAMMER off, what am I going to do!!


Sorry Magix, had a snoop around, your top of my scammer watch list!!

But did you do it with an EA cause if you didn't you'll ulimately fail, wasn't that what you said ?? think so, so by your own rules, no EA and doesn't count and yet you don't write EA's LOL it just gets better and better.


Make a note of all your lies then try to remain consistent, never going to make a good scammer doing this are we.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
5 traders viewing now