why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 85 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,681
  • Jan 16, 2014 10:11am Jan 16, 2014 10:11am
Quoting Rap Skallion
Just for laughs I will post this. See if any of it makes any sense to you when pair AB goes up A buys more Bs and net money flows from B to A when pair BC goes up ( or CB goes down) Money flows from C to B Therefore it stands that net money will flow from C through B to A . I call AB and BC the parent pairs, and AC the child. When the parents " push" the child to move, it will move. Lines of support and resistance should be broken. When the parents stop pushing the child, it will tend to go in the same direction, but tend to be subject to vagaries...

Rap, what you wrote is over my head BUT the basics I understand, GOOD THINKING, I normally traded only 1 pair at a time and oil, but my scanners were constantly monitoring other pairs even the ones I never traded and when we had discrepancies ( parents and child) I would trade them, and it gets back to inside bars etc. good post
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,682
  • Jan 16, 2014 10:15am Jan 16, 2014 10:15am
Quoting Magix
{quote} You could call it your 6 pound sausage methodology... {quote} Maybe you are in the wrong thread for dick comparison...at least that would be what the thread name suggests... Of course, the only way to get this train back on track, would be to scrub the last 83 pages, push the start date to today and ban turvey. I seriously have no clue how this became a place for one of FFs longest losers to talk about trade methodology.
Hi Magix, it wont be dick comparison more like sausage comparison AND I actually got 4 pips so the method will be £4 sausage method.
Some person nameless says he has 80% hit rate and everyone goes ape demanding proof so I say I got 150 pips in 2 days and that makes me have a hit rate of around 99% and that is bad for me. But no one wants to know, weird eh.
I got a couple of pings and I explained but as for here I guess I am billy no mates
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,683
  • Jan 16, 2014 10:16am Jan 16, 2014 10:16am
Hi T hope your good, I see your hecklers are still about lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,684
  • Jan 16, 2014 10:54am Jan 16, 2014 10:54am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Magix, it wont be dick comparison more like sausage comparison AND I actually got 4 pips so the method will be £4 sausage method. Some person nameless says he has 80% hit rate and everyone goes ape demanding proof so I say I got 150 pips in 2 days and that makes me have a hit rate of around 99% and that is bad for me. But no one wants to know, weird eh. I got a couple of pings and I explained but as for here I guess I am billy no mates
You haven't been splooging all over the forum for the last forever many years claiming how fucking great you are and how dumb everyone is... all the while demonstrating how infantile you are in all regards. The fact that nobody is interested in a few trades you did compared to some silly shit who has been mouthing off for years at everyone is not in any way weird.

But, keep baiting for a bite. Here, I just gave you some attention. Relish it. You've been asking for attention a few times now. Maybe if you stopped speaking shit for pages at a time with derpy others might not disregard you entirely. Or just keep talking amongst yourselves and everyone else will just continue to ignore you two for the most-part.

Weird, hey?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,685
  • Jan 16, 2014 10:54am Jan 16, 2014 10:54am
Quoting billytt
How odd? I spent most of yesterday pointing out trades in here (scalping) pointing out as in predicting a positive outcome and no one has said anything. No trolls no wannabee traders no JS, kind of weird. maybe after all, FF is just for dreamers. Maybe if I said hey you mf ers use 200 leverage you might respond but hey ho. AND yes all the trades I pointed out yesterday I traded, £1 a pip sometimes compounded up to £3 and yes I did have a loser but that was sorted, my trades can be viewed, be good or stick to horses
Spamming the thread with your trades doesn't prove or disprove anything about predicting the markets. It's just noise.

I'm honestly not sure what you expected?

I can make a prediction on who will win the Super Bowl, what the high temperature in London will be on January 29th, 2023, or whether the next coin flip will be heads or tails, and none of it offers anything meaningful towards the discussion of whether any of these things are actually predictable.

Heck, I can predict Turveyd's responses to this thread (and pretty damn accurately, at that). He's said multiple times he was going away, not going to respond to various posters, etc. and every single time he has predictably come back into the thread to respond to the very people he said he was going to forever ignore. Why? Because human behavior is predictable to some extent. Which means the markets are predictable to some extent.

In that last paragraph I offered more to the thread and the idea of market predictability than you will have in 30 pages of spamming whatever random trades you've taken.
  • #1,686
  • Jan 16, 2014 10:57am Jan 16, 2014 10:57am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} You haven't been splooging all over the forum for the last forever many years claiming how fucking great you are and how dumb everyone is... all the while demonstrating how infantile you are in all regards. The fact that nobody is interested in a few trades you did compared to some silly shit who has been mouthing off for years at everyone is not in any way weird. But, keep baiting for a bite. Here, I just gave you some attention. Relish it. You've been asking for attention a few times now. Maybe if you stopped speaking shit for pages at...

get back in your tree, next please
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,687
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:01am Jan 16, 2014 11:01am
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} Spamming the thread with your trades doesn't prove or disprove anything about predicting the markets. It's just noise. I'm honestly not sure what you expected? I can make a prediction on who will win the Super Bowl, what the high temperature in London will be on January 29th, 2023, or whether the next coin flip will be heads or tails, and none of it offers anything meaningful towards the discussion of whether any of these things are actually predictable.
Hi, you got it wrong, I was waiting for someone to say,, How did you do your trades, was it prediction, was it expectancy. I want to help people trade. I do not think betting £1 pip trades is spamming, it is akin to micro lots (I think), be good and like I tell everyone I have ever taught, stay out of these threads, they are not really good in the long run
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,688
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:12am Jan 16, 2014 11:12am
OK, that's fine, but why wait for someone to ask you?


The thread is a discussion, not a place for you to post trades goading us into asking what your method is.
  • #1,689
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:21am Jan 16, 2014 11:21am
Back off topic I see, trolls must be bored again.


Don't feed them Billy!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,690
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:23am Jan 16, 2014 11:23am
Quoting smittens4212
OK, that's fine, but why wait for someone to ask you? The thread is a discussion, not a place for you to post trades goading us into asking what your method is.
nice reply, this thread started and we had an exchange of ideas but it suddenly went off course and people started talking about trading and how to/not to trade. I am extremely interested in predictability or is it expectancy, I decided to start scalping and what fun I have had but the message I am/was trying to convey is ,,is this predictability or expectancy.
I can only foresee the near future as in minutes time wise not the next hour or tomorrow, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,691
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:28am Jan 16, 2014 11:28am
Quoting Turveyd
Back off topic I see, trolls must be bored again. Don't feed them Billy!
lol, no bud I cannot nor will not feed them thnxs. you know I work/worked the doors and bg and other manly stuff lol. and I have seen many times guys who are nobodies but once they get with a few of their mates they get gung ho and think they are someone, whether its drink n drugs or both. well I am old school (skool) and they suffered, point being, online ,,,it is easy for a nobody to think and try to be a somebody AND I just had a loss on the oil aaaaagh
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,692
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:29am Jan 16, 2014 11:29am
Quoting billytt
{quote} nice reply, this thread started and we had an exchange of ideas but it suddenly went off course and people started talking about trading and how to/not to trade. I am extremely interested in predictability or is it expectancy, I decided to start scalping and what fun I have had but the message I am/was trying to convey is ,,is this predictability or expectancy. I can only foresee the near future as in minutes time wise not the next hour or tomorrow, be good
We need a troll free thread mate, they watch too many soap opera's and think thats how real adults should act.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,693
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:29am Jan 16, 2014 11:29am
Quoting billytt
{quote} nice reply, this thread started and we had an exchange of ideas but it suddenly went off course and people started talking about trading and how to/not to trade. I am extremely interested in predictability or is it expectancy, I decided to start scalping and what fun I have had but the message I am/was trying to convey is ,,is this predictability or expectancy. I can only foresee the near future as in minutes time wise not the next hour or tomorrow, be good
In my opinion predictability and expectancy are the same thing when it comes to dynamic systems like the weather, or markets. You can't fully predict what the market will do, just like you can't fully predict what the weather will do. But on both accounts, you can give probabilities of qualitative moves (e.g. market will likely have an up leg for an undetermined time), but are fairly restricted from making quantitative predictions (e.g. market up 72 pips over the next 100 minutes).
  • #1,694
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:31am Jan 16, 2014 11:31am
Quoting billytt
{quote} lol, no bud I cannot nor will not feed them thnxs. you know I work/worked the doors and bg and other manly stuff lol. and I have seen many times guys who are nobodies but once they get with a few of their mates they get gung ho and think they are someone, whether its drink n drugs or both. well I am old school (skool) and they suffered, point being, online ,,,it is easy for a nobody to think and try to be a somebody AND I just had a loss on the oil aaaaagh
Don't waste your time trying to reason with them either, they've proved there not capable of reason.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,695
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:37am Jan 16, 2014 11:37am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I've been trading the exotic crosses for several years now. You seem to be on the right path, but keep an eye on the majors as they move, as well as, after they have made their big moves. I like to watch the exotic pairs for reaction as the majors approach a S/R, or any other significant TA level. Gives you an idea where you might add on to trades. Keep in mind, the meandering that seems to be occurring in the exotic (after a move) is really adjustments taking place between the majors. This can be another opportunity to add to your position....
Thank you for your reply: I am still adjusting the kinks to this system and will take your tips into serious consideration.

One complication: The set of pairs I have chosen was for their usefulness as correlated pairs for cross currency hedging.
When I reverse a pair, I lose the utility of the pair for a hedge.

Will the market in general steer the pairs I reverse like this to be hedges when they need to be? I am inclined to guess not. I will study this to see if I should actually reverse my child pair, or simply close trades in it to preserve their hedging utility.

I will keep listening to you, and other friendly voices, ofr i find them to be a source of guidance as I build my way into profitable trading.
  • #1,696
  • Jan 16, 2014 11:58am Jan 16, 2014 11:58am
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} In my opinion predictability and expectancy are the same thing when it comes to dynamic systems like the weather, or markets. You can't fully predict what the market will do, just like you can't fully predict what the weather will do. But on both accounts, you can give probabilities of qualitative moves (e.g. market will likely have an up leg for an undetermined time), but are fairly restricted from making quantitative predictions (e.g. market up 72 pips over the next 100 minutes).
I agree, I honestly think predictability is more certainty than expectancy, and probabilities, this comes under the heading of statistics and percentages ( in my eyes), and the latter two were my forte, every trade I ever did proffessionly ( spelled wrong) went off statistics and percentages.
a couple of years ago in one of th threads FF I think, some one said a lot of information is held in your brain subconsciously and I agree, earlier today Rap (I think) posted his ideas and how true they are, some times we cannot say do this do that in trading because the subconscious helps. be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,697
  • Jan 16, 2014 12:02pm Jan 16, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} Thank you for your reply: I am still adjusting the kinks to this system and will take your tips into serious consideration. One complication: The set of pairs I have chosen was for their usefulness as correlated pairs for cross currency hedging. When I reverse a pair, I lose the utility of the pair for a hedge. Will the market in general steer the pairs I reverse like this to be hedges when they need to be? I am inclined to guess not. I will study this to see if I should actually reverse my child pair, or simply close trades in it to preserve...
if you can have a set up of where you have several pairs all cross indexed this will aid you big time . I will go as far as say use every pair crossed but that is almost beyond belief to do
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,698
  • Jan 16, 2014 12:06pm Jan 16, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting rekon67
{quote} Interesting, one pictorial illustration along with it could be good. Here is the latest market scan, can you describe your method with this scan image? {image}
Your chart suggests EUR/USD as a strong BUY: WHat went wrong?
One set of parents found on the chart : USDJPY-, EURJPY+ is not pushing the EURUSD:The strong sell takes it off the board.

USDCAD strong sell is correct, but the EURCAD is not on your chart, my charts show it going strongly down, when it should have been increasing. That takes this pair off the chart.
USDJPY is a strong sell on your chart,(good)but the EURJPY is also listed as a strong sell (should have been a buy)

None of my parent pairs is pushing this child, so when it bumped up against resistance around 1.36266 (on my charts), it reversed.

I could that dumb luck just happened to agree with my system, of course, but I would not have acted on that STRONG SELL suggestion.
AS for a pictorial illustration, I am working on it. Just not there yet.

that was an interesting screen shot. Where did you get it?
  • #1,699
  • Jan 16, 2014 12:12pm Jan 16, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} Your chart suggests EUR/USD as a strong BUY: WHat went wrong? One set of parents found on the chart : USDJPY-, EURJPY+ is not pushing the EURUSD:The strong sell takes it off the board. USDCAD strong sell is correct, but the EURCAD is not on your chart, my charts show it going strongly down, when it should have been increasing. That takes this pair off the chart. USDJPY is a strong sell on your chart,(good)but the EURJPY is also listed as a strong sell (should have been a buy) None of my parent pairs is pushing this child, so when it bumped...
dumb luck ?? keep stats and see how often it happens and after a time you can say its luck or not, or your odds are better for the trade
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,700
  • Jan 16, 2014 12:13pm Jan 16, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} if you can have a set up of where you have several pairs all cross indexed this will aid you big time . I will go as far as say use every pair crossed but that is almost beyond belief to do

I have a preliminary one of these that I have been trading by, making revisions in pencil as I go. To sit there and figure out (correctly) the structures in real time hurts my brain too much. Good idea

An advisory EA is also a good idea down the line.
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