Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 191 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,801
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:07pm Jan 10, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting panoramia
I wanted to show you what I do in some circumstances when I want to trade Daily supply or demand. THE SCENARIO (example based on D1 supply zone for EURJPY): D1 suppy zone is too wide. It normally is, even more on pairs like EURJPY There are no original and fresh lower timeframe levels H1/H4 supply to set & forget a short trade. Remember for counter-trend use only original levels (those that are no reaction to previous levels) WHAT TO DO: Wait for a confirmation, we want to see willing supply in the area on smaller timeframes, H1 supply minimum....
Hi Alfonso, I am studying the thread from the very beginning and I just hit this nice post of yours. The new original H4 supply at the D1 SZ proximal line did not absorb any demand below and yet you would short the first reaction. In one of the posts you stated that there is an exception to the rule which says that:

Price needs to remove opposing SD level to validate previous one, but sometimes it does not need to:


1) At fresh and original HTF zone

2) When there is no opposing SD zone to remove with long ERC candles on the left



Is this the exception you talked about?

Anybody, pls, feel free to answer what you think. Thanks.
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  • #3,802
  • Jan 12, 2014 3:35am Jan 12, 2014 3:35am
Hi All Great thread,

Sometimes I have actual problems with Identfying a cont pattern from a small peak or valley, PLease see below (this is just for demonstartion purposes and the levels may not be actual great levels, but rather looking for ssome hints to work out exactly how to determine if its a speedbump or a small peak valley).

Any assistance would be appreciated because I can currently see it as both?

Thanks in advance,
Attached Images
Bye Bye FF
  • #3,803
  • Jan 13, 2014 3:48am Jan 13, 2014 3:48am
Hi Guyz,
Could anybody PM me the removed secret material for How to draw SD zones, or similar with the rules from Seiden or Alfonso?
Thanks a lot.
  • #3,804
  • Jan 13, 2014 4:12am Jan 13, 2014 4:12am
Quoting lobogabor
Hi Guyz, Could anybody PM me the removed secret material for How to draw SD zones, or similar with the rules from Seiden or Alfonso? Thanks a lot.
I collected top materials I found on SD zones, incl. a link to Seiden videos and a few excellent ebooks from FF members, here, in the "credits" section of my S&D system description on my blog. In this "credits" section I say "thank you" to people who created great materials, incl. Alfonso, and I provide links.
I do not have any secret videos though.
Good luck & I hope you and others will find it helpful.
Michal9
  • #3,805
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:05am Jan 13, 2014 5:05am
Here is my zone analysis on AUDUSD Monthly chart. Does anyone think it is flawed? If so, I would appreciate your critique
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,806
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:28am Jan 13, 2014 5:28am
Quoting lobogabor
Hi Guyz, Could anybody PM me the removed secret material for How to draw SD zones, or similar with the rules from Seiden or Alfonso? Thanks a lot.
This one?

Inserted Video
  • #3,807
  • Jan 13, 2014 12:16pm Jan 13, 2014 12:16pm
Hello fellow traders!

I still am on holidays in Vietnam, will be back home at the end of this week. I will be organizing my agenda once I am back and will organize another webinar to answer your questions and go through the methodology again. I will reply to those unanswered messages when I am back. I am also trading while I am on holidays but concentrated mostly on D1 zones and clear H4 setups so that I don't have to worry about anything.

Hope you all had a great entry on the New Year!
My best wishes!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,808
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:44pm Jan 13, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting michal9
{quote} I collected top materials I found on SD zones, incl. a link to Seiden videos and a few excellent ebooks from FF members, here, in the "credits" section of my S&D system description on my blog. In this "credits" section I say "thank you" to people who created great materials, incl. Alfonso, and I provide links. I do not have any secret videos though. Good luck & I hope you and others will find it helpful.
Tnx a lot, it is an excellent collection!
  • #3,809
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:46pm Jan 13, 2014 5:46pm
Quoting jsr
{quote} This one? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYsDI0ZHPRQ
Tnx I think it is, but dunno, since the secret formula was removed . I think this is a great material in any case! Tnx a lot!
  • #3,810
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:30am Jan 14, 2014 4:30am
Quoting GregT
Here is my zone analysis on AUDUSD Monthly chart. Does anyone think it is flawed? If so, I would appreciate your critique {image}

Hi GregT,

It is a nice analysis on AUDUSD and I think zones were correctly drawn. As I see you did not take into account the original ZONE of DZ4. It has not absorbed yet. Possibly it is not really important level because the upside trend line was broken and this is a CP (RBR) pattern, but it is very close.
  • #3,811
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:32am Jan 15, 2014 12:32am
Quoting GregT
Here is my zone analysis on AUDUSD Monthly chart. Does anyone think it is flawed? If so, I would appreciate your critique {image}
Hi Greg, regarding sz-2 I too sometimes have issues with concluding the amounts of basing etc even what is a cp and peak or valley at times.

Take this with a grain of salt however I would be of the belief to much time has been spent in that area the body of the distal candle lines up with so much trading in that area suggesting that buyers and sellers were not giving in and orders were being consumed, until it broke out.

Meaning because many orders have been consumed the level may not be as strong. Not to say it won't work. Happy to be corrected.
All the best,
C
Bye Bye FF
  • #3,812
  • Jan 15, 2014 4:20am Jan 15, 2014 4:20am
Hi all,

This thread is really what I was looking for I think.
I'm trying to digest all the info, and I'm still not sure if I am drawing the S/D areas properly so I thought that I might ask you guys for advice.

I plotted a supply area 2 days ago on the GY. Price has been retracing to it but I didn't take the long because it was counter the short term trend.
Instead I was waiting for price to touch in and start going back down again (not quite sure yet about how to watch the smaller TF to actually see it happening before entering though..)

Anyway the price seems to have reversed back down just a few pips before touching my limit order, so my question is: did I draw the supply area wrong?

Here's my chart of the 4H GY.

Thanks for your advice on this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,813
  • Jan 15, 2014 4:58am Jan 15, 2014 4:58am
Quoting alt11
... I'm still not sure if I am drawing the S/D areas properly so I thought that I might ask you guys for advice. I plotted a supply area 2 days ago on the GY... my question is: did I draw the supply area wrong?
My opinion about your zone and trade is shown in the attached image.

You might also like to look at information that is slowly being collected at http://groups.google.com/d/forum/sup...nd-FAQ-Alfonso
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  • #3,814
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:06am Jan 15, 2014 5:06am
Quoting Serijbok
{quote} Hi GregT, It is a nice analysis on AUDUSD and I think zones were correctly drawn. As I see you did not take into account the original ZONE of DZ4. It has not absorbed yet.
Thanks for your confirmation Serijbok. I did actually consider DZ-4 as being fully consumed as price has gone below the lower edge, but then turned long again so a candle has not closed across the DZ-4 area. However, I would not trade it yet as a short until price went lower beyond the 2:1 Rwd:Risk distance then returned for the first retouch of the zone in the entry TF.
  • #3,815
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:08am Jan 15, 2014 5:08am
Thank you for your reply,

Okay so the order should have been on the edge closest to price.
The SL is wasn't my concern since I am just trying to see first if I can plot zones properly. I just wanted to have it above the trendline just in case my Supply zone was wrong.
My brain needs some time to make sense of it all.

Also, the indicators that Alfonso is using would be really useful.

I will check that google group.

Thanks
S
  • #3,816
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:19am Jan 15, 2014 5:19am
I'm not master of this method, but IMHO proximal line of SZ3 is to high. it is drawn at close of last bearish candle before departure, but I think it should be drawn at open of the last bulish candle before departure. Or that is definition only RBD zones and not applied for DBD zones?
  • #3,817
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:38am Jan 15, 2014 5:38am
Quoting kimis
proximal line of SZ3 is to high. it is drawn at close of last bearish candle before departure, but I think it should be drawn at open of the last bulish candle before departure. Or that is definition only RBD zones and not applied for DBD zones?
Interesting, I hope we'll be able to clarify that
  • #3,818
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:17am Jan 15, 2014 8:17am
Hi Alfonso,

Im reading your first post and its great, found lot of valueble info and thanx for the effort.

In one place I saw you are mentioning multiple timeframe analysis with four times greater for the next time-frame and your example is 1H, 4H and D1 time-frames, which I totally understand. But in Swing-trading, Position-trading and Intraday-trading configurations the time-frames you have mentioned is different. So Im bit confused now and expecting a help to understand the mentioned portion.


Thanx in Advance,
Ishara
  • #3,819
  • Edited 1:11am Jan 16, 2014 12:59am | Edited 1:11am
Quoting GregT
{quote} My opinion about your zone and trade is shown in the attached image.
Hi GregT,

It appears that that SZ3 area has been broken, does that invalidate the whole trade? (or is a SZ not broken until a new candle opens and closes above it?)
Once it has been broken, does that SZ become support?
Should we not be taking shorts since the general trend on the daily is up?

Thanks
S
  • #3,820
  • Edited 3:09am Jan 16, 2014 2:25am | Edited 3:09am
alt11 (S)

can you please name the pair of chart next time would be much more easy to make our own analisis and confirm or negate yours

oh, now I found name of gbpjpy at picture name

strange, my picture on h4 is different then yours. and according it SG3 was broken.
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and maybe I'm wrong, but there are two valeys and two peaks on daily chart. we can consider that downtrend has just started if so.
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