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Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior - by FibStalker

  • #121
  • Jan 3, 2014 7:59pm Jan 3, 2014 7:59pm
Quoting fibstalker
Hello traders, hope you all had a great Christmas Holiday time and started the 2014 on a positive note. I am going to resume the posts in this thread along with my market analysis videos, which you can find on my blog. This is the review for EUR/USD and S&P500 emini based on my method and the key concepts I am presenting in this thread: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2014/...uary-2nd-2014/ Tomorrow I will be interviewed again by Dale Pinkert at the Live Analysis Room and will elaborate even more...
Hello traders,

I am honored and happy to have been the first trader to be interviewed by Dale Pinkert in his LAR on June 3rd, 2013. This morning, Dale invited me again and I have reviewed Program Trading footprints on the EUR/USD forex pair, indicating the next levels of support and what can be anticipated to happen on this pair in the coming weeks and months.

I would be very interested to know what you think about my view. You can find today s interview and the other 5 interviews since June, last year on my blog, at the following address: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2014/...d-2014-update/

Dale Pinkert is a trader with almost 40 years of experience who got his start in the trading business as a runner on the floor of the CME in 1975. Dale has great insights about the markets and leads a free room where he teaches trader. He is a former Member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (IOM Division), his market forecasts have been aired on major Financial Television and Radio station including CNBC. He went on to establish and operate Pinkert Commodities. Dale has been presenting his outlooks and teaching his methods on FXstreet.com for 4 years and has mentored both retail and prop traders. His trading motto is “If you don’t learn how to change your mind you won’t have any change left” from W.D. Gann.

I highly respect Dale, who is a great person willing and working hard to help traders on their trading journey in his free live analysis room.

Hope the above videos interest you.
Please let me know what you think.

Thank you.

Till the next post,
~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #122
  • Jan 4, 2014 12:17pm Jan 4, 2014 12:17pm
Hi Giuseppe,
I just watched the video of your interview with Dale yesterday. Fascinating long term insight and way of looking at the market. I will follow your ideas and setups with interest. Best wishes for 2014.
  • #123
  • Jan 4, 2014 11:06pm Jan 4, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting Stephen Thom
Hi Giuseppe, I just watched the video of your interview with Dale yesterday. Fascinating long term insight and way of looking at the market. I will follow your ideas and setups with interest. Best wishes for 2014.
Thank you Stephen,
I appreciate your support. Yes it is indeed, and it works. I am glad you like it.

Please browse my blog at: http://elitefive.wordpress.com, as I will keep adding new educational content at the beginning of the year.
On the blog you find the other 5 interviews and more than 400 video analysis on forex, stocks and futures featuring my method.

Also you will find a few articles on psychology, program trading and HFT. I am keen of studying the interrelationship between program trading and HFT, the latter being the subject of a research paper presented at SIAT/IFTA and a speech at the largest event of investment and trading in Italy.

I gladly return your wished for a fab tastic 2014 and extend to your loved ones.

Best Regards,,,
~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #124
  • Jan 4, 2014 11:16pm Jan 4, 2014 11:16pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} Thank you Stephen, I appreciate your support. Yes it is indeed, and it works. I am glad you like it. Please browse my blog at: http://elitefive.wordpress.com, as I will keep adding new educational content at the beginning of the year. On the blog you find the other 5 interviews and more than 400 video analysis on forex, stocks and futures featuring my method. Also you will find a few articles on psychology, program trading and HFT. I am keen of studying the interrelationship between program trading and HFT, the latter being the...
Ciao FibStalker, I am suscribed to your thread and have already your ebook in my computer. You are doing an incredible job here. I hope to read more from you.

Keep it up!
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #125
  • Jan 4, 2014 11:58pm Jan 4, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting horuxito
{quote} Ciao FibStalker, I am suscribed to your thread and have already your ebook in my computer. You are doing an incredible job here. I hope to read more from you. Keep it up!
Hello horuxito,
thanks for the support, I really appreciate it. I will keep completing the discussion on this thread and keep sharing my work.

Thanks a lot, it is flattening sir.

Best Regards,,,
~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #126
  • Jan 5, 2014 8:26am Jan 5, 2014 8:26am
Ciao Guiseppe

I have been watching your first 3 videos in the trading room with Dale (often pausing and finding your levels on my own charts) and are slowly but steadily developing a feel for what you are doing. Looking forward to learning more about your approach.

Wish you a wonderful 2014 in your new Canadian environment.
Much depend on luck, but the more you practice the luckier you get! NT & GP
  • #127
  • Jan 5, 2014 10:50am Jan 5, 2014 10:50am
Quoting pa_pips
Ciao Guiseppe I have been watching your first 3 videos in the trading room with Dale (often pausing and finding your levels on my own charts) and are slowly but steadily developing a feel for what you are doing. Looking forward to learning more about your approach. Wish you a wonderful 2014 in your new Canadian environment.
Thank you papips,
thank you for your interest. It does indeed take a bit of time to get the main concepts and the same analysis has also to be repeated on all the main timeframes: weekly, daily, 4 hour, 15min and 1min (on high volume instruments the TICK chart can also be used).
Price is the result of players and program trading on all these timeframes and the consistency and continuation of sequences on all these timeframes

Be warned that program trading is only active on high volume markets which includes forex majors (EUR/USD being the best), some equity indexes, some commodities and high volume NYSE and NASDAQ stocks.

Thank you for your support. Keep in touch and review the educational info and videos on my blog.
I wish you and your family a fab tastic 2014!

Chat soon
All the best
~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #128
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:27pm Jan 12, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting fibstalker
Hello all, I hope you all are spending paceful and relaxing Xmas holidays. Tonight I would like to continue with the illustration of the Bandwagon Theory and introduce the following section, part of the original Bandwagon allegory: "Now that the bandwagon is at a complete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining the fun is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board. But the nature of the bandwagon is to move forward. Its motionless state is unnatural,...
"Now that the bandwagon is at a complete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining the fun is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board. But the nature of the bandwagon is to move forward. Its motionless state is unnatural, and therefore cannot last. It tries to move forward again, but can’t.
The crowd, piled on back, is much too large. It must free itself of the heavy burden. And it does. It quickly shifts into reverse, and jolts backward, knocking a few of the party animals off the back.
The music stops. Puzzled faces from the crowd begin to emerge. Before anyone figures out what’s going on, another backward jerk takes place, only this one is more violent. Another large group of people gets thrown off the back.”

Hereunder is the illustration:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1336755&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1388285979

In the previous post I have left you with this image. Here is the explanation of this section of the Bandwagon Theory allegory:


In this phase, (Figure above) more traders get on board of the trending market which has already started decelerating. The move higher is almost completed and price is ready to reverse. Program Trading and professional traders have 1st or 2nd targets right above price.
Opening a new long position at this stage is clearly a mistake: it’s too late and the probability to show losses, right away or after a first elating move upward, is very high. Yet this is what a lot of retail beginner and intermediate traders regularly do.
Wall Street professionals and hedge funds will sell to retail and professional traders, lookign at their order flow, at this stage. This is common not only in the equity market but also other markets.

Till the next time for the next phase of the Bandwagon Theory.

Best Regards,,
Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

PS: if you trade EUR/USD, do not lose the EUR/USD 2014 Strategy interview posted on my blog: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2014/...uary-5th-2014/

I also post to free newsletter subscribers weekly and daily reviews for 11 markets. Check it out, if you are interested.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #129
  • Jan 13, 2014 7:24pm Jan 13, 2014 7:24pm
Hello traders,
this is a review for 7 of the 11 markets I follow.

* EUR/USD
The Euro is showing resistance at the 1.3683 level and 20 day simple moving average. The 15min chart did not confirm the start of shorts as the 1.3629 level was not pierced on the downside. The test of 1.3720 is still possible and a swing could be taken here with stops above 1.3763.

* S&P500 emini
As anticipated after the move higher on the smaller timeframe would have been exhausted we would have seen the start of the move lower. This is what happened on Monday. Price could still retest 1,825 area or higher before a continuation lower. I anticipate this market to move lower into 1,783

* Gold emini
This market is on its way onto the 1,263 1st target of the long setup at 1,214. After that the market could continue towards the 1,288 2nd target. If after reachig 1,214 it retraces, the next level of support should come around 1,238 for a continued move higher

* USD/JPY
This market is moving lower like all the Japanese Yen majors. The first level of support is found at 101.54

* EUR/JPY
The extension short level indicated yesterday on the daily timeframe with resistance and entry short in the 142.95 area has pushed price lower into first target at 140.81. Second target is at right at that 139.80 area of daily and weekly support from Program Trading.

* GBP/JPY
This market is in a similar setups as EUR/JPY. However a traditional short has traded in the last 3 days of last week with resistance and entry short at 172.60 which brought price down into 1st target at 169.30. Second target is below at 167.50. Before continuing lower this market could retrace into 170.70 area.

*NDZ/USD
As anticipated, due to the long bias on this market both on the weekly and daily charts, this market has broken the 0.8366 level given yesterday and has now confirmed its longs down at the 0.8110 area. This market is now headed onto 0.8745 but, before getting there, it could retrace down into 0.8300 or even 0.8260. The 0.8219 seems a good stop level at the moment. Below that level 0.8110 could be retested. But this has low probability at the moment.

Note:
To put the current moves in perspective I suggest you review yesterday s Newsletter videos.

On my blog there is also a video review of these markets, in case you trade them and want a different perspective based on spotting Program Trading footprints on price: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2014/...ary-13th-2014/


Let me know what you think.
Enjoy the remaining of the week.

Giuseppe, the FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #130
  • Edited 6:33pm Jan 14, 2014 6:13pm | Edited 6:33pm
Dear all,
hope your day was good. This is an EUR/USD update.

In this brief post I share a chart of the EUR/USD showing where we could move next.

We are currently witnessing a move higher in the EUR/USD which is pushed by program trading on the 15min timeframe. Failure of the current sequence is still 1.3629 at this time. Price could just reach the next level of daily resistance and entry short at 1.3720. This would be a nice gift for shorts.
I have provided a blueprint and strategy for the beginning of year 2014 for the Euro on Friday January 3rd in an interview at the Pinkert s LAR.

Please, review that video to put the below chart in context of what is happening with the Euro at the moment.

http://elitefive.files.wordpress.com...ng?w=650&h=439
EURUSD forex pair, daily chart – January 14th, 2014 (click to enlarge)

It looks like the Euro is going to test the 1.3720 area where participation from Program Trading on the downside can be anticipated, and a real gift to sellers who are not yet in. In fact, when the current 15min rally and program trading sequence exhausts itself, price will be ready to correct.

If that happens the Euro should then start trading lower initially into the 1.3470 level (1st target) and, after that, into the 1.3340 area (2nd target). We could witness a relief rally from the 1.3430 area, and then start a continuation lower.

Remember that, if there are no major changes, the Euro is due to see the 1.2970 area before weekly longs kick in again. Please review the EUR/USD Blueprint and Strategy for 2014 video on the blog, if you are interested.

A first area of support will be just below the second target area at 1.3330. That is where we could witness some temporary profit taking on this market, which could to be shortly ridden again by Program Trading on smaller timeframes, 240min and 15min.

Please let me know what you think.
Thank you.

Regards,,,
Giuseppe, the FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #131
  • Edited 10:22pm Jan 15, 2014 7:10pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting fibstalker
Dear all, hope your day was good. This is an EUR/USD update. In this brief post I share a chart of the EUR/USD showing where we could move next. We are currently witnessing a move higher in the EUR/USD which is pushed by program trading on the 15min timeframe. Failure of the current sequence is still 1.3629 at this time. Price could just reach the next level of daily resistance and entry short at 1.3720. This would be a nice gift for shorts. I have provided a blueprint and strategy for the beginning of year 2014 for the Euro on Friday January 3rd...
Hi traders,

Euro/Dollar price violated the 1.3629 level gave on sunday s video.
The possibility of a move lower is open. However we could still see a last move into 1.3640 area. Above 1.3653 there will be resistance at 1.3664 and then all the way into 1.3720 area mentioned yesterday.

Have a great eve
Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #132
  • Jan 16, 2014 9:03pm Jan 16, 2014 9:03pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} Hi traders, Euro/Dollar price violated the 1.3629 level gave on sunday s video. The possibility of a move lower is open. However we could still see a last move into 1.3640 area. Above 1.3653 there will be resistance at 1.3664 and then all the way into 1.3720 area mentioned yesterday. Have a great eve Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker
Hello,
the Euro indeed moved into the 1.3640 area with a high at 1.3648, below the failure level at 1.3653.
A continuation lower from the 4 hour setup would bring price into previous lows at 1.3551 (1st target) and then 1.3507 (2nd target).

Pls let me know what you think.
Good night.

~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #133
  • Jan 16, 2014 9:57pm Jan 16, 2014 9:57pm
Thank you Giuseppe for your generous and kind sharing.

I had read a book called "The Science of Getting Rich" which talked about doing things in a "Certain Way" in order to succeed. The author suggested doing what successful people like yourself are doing, that is, the "Certain Way". I was looking for the "Certain Way" to trade forex and chanced upon your thread. I think I have found the "Certain Way" of trading forex as your concepts and teachings is the "Certain Way". There are many other "Certain Way" of trading forex, but your thread is the first one to impress upon me that it is the "Certain Way". Besides that, Italy is, and has remained my favourite European country after a vacation there some time ago.

Again, thank you for your kind and generous sharing.
  • #134
  • Edited 6:59pm Jan 17, 2014 6:22pm | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting pcalrose
Thank you Giuseppe for your generous and kind sharing. I had read a book called "The Science of Getting Rich" which talked about doing things in a "Certain Way" in order to succeed. The author suggested doing what successful people like yourself are doing, that is, the "Certain Way". I was looking for the "Certain Way" to trade forex and chanced upon your thread. I think I have found the "Certain Way" of trading forex as your concepts and teachings is the "Certain Way". There are many other "Certain Way" of trading forex, but your thread is the...
Hello pcalrose,
I do not know the book, but if it helped you it is very good for you. And if you find what I write interesting and helpful I am very happy.
Thank you for sharing. I am not sure what is the "Certain Way" of trading you have in mind. I follow footprints of Program Trading on price, encoded in a few rules, and when I combine the indication that program trading activity provides on all timeframes I can come with pretty good anticipation of the high probability move, a reasonable trading plan with 1st and 2nd target and all the relevant levels and, most importantly, the levels where a certain move is negated.

At this point I do not see a lot of obstables for price of EUR/USD from here to 1.3330 area of first support. But Program Trading behavior tells me that we have the potential to move lower into 1.2970.

I agree, Italy is a beautiful place for holidays. But I would not recommend anyone to live there, at the moment.

Thank you for your support.
Chat soon
Regards,,,
~FibStalker.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #135
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:50pm Jan 23, 2014 9:50pm
Hello Traders,
a quick update on what I see on 3 of the 11 markets I follow: EUR/USD, S&P500 and Gold, using the footprints of Program Trading on price.

EUR/USD
The Euro had a huge move higher due to news. Notice that this move higher is not supported from Program Trading. I see no reason to get excited for new longs at this stage. Price was actually pushed into a new resistance level at 1.3700. Swing trades shorts here have a stop above 1.3746 (R/R > 8, or > 15 if we consider the 1.2970 target). On the 240min and 15min timeframes the first confirmation of new shorts will come below 1.3664.

S&P500 emini
This market went nowhere in the last few sessions and on Thursday got a push lower. Price ended up closing below the 20 day moving average. We have two levels of support below current prices at 1,784 and 1,757.

Gold
Gold reached the first target at 1,263. A continuation higher into the 1,288 is possible, as well as, a trade into the next measured move long at 1,240 area.

You find the video on my blog: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2014/...ary-23rd-2014/

Please let me know what you think.

Have a great evening
Cheers

Giuseppe, the FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #136
  • Jan 26, 2014 11:23pm Jan 26, 2014 11:23pm
Thank you Giuseppe for your kind words.

The "Certain Way" actually refers to any way that people have been doing successfully whatever they are doing, whether it is investing, running a business, anything, etc. This will be the "Certain Way". There will be other people doing the same business but have never become successful. That is NOT the "Certain Way" since they didn't succeed. That's what I understand from what the author Wallace Wattles was writing about.

So, since you're successful in what you have been doing, your way is the "Certain Way". Not the only "Certain Way" but definitely one of the "Certain Way".

Well, the Chinese New Year. holidays are coming up and I will have some leisure time to go over all your posts! For now, I will be side tracked with the annual spring cleaning before the Chinese New Year.

Meantime, thank you for your generous sharing and "Gong Xi Fa Cai" to you and everyone! Literally, it's "Wishing you be prosperous in the coming year!" Cheers!
  • #137
  • Jan 27, 2014 6:58pm Jan 27, 2014 6:58pm
Hello Pcalrose,
that was very kind of you. Thank you for your wishes and a very good "Gong Xi Fa Cai" to you too. I hope this year will be very prosperous for you. My year has started already well and I just hope it continues like it is now.

Thanks for explaining your "Certain Way" to me. I hope I do not give the impression that the way I look at the markets is the only way. There are many ways to be successful in the markets and, certainly, my way is not the only way. I consider it, indeed, a different way of looking at the market, that can complement and enrich other successful or less successful ways to trading the market.

Certainly we can say that successful ways to look at and trading the markets all have one thing in common: a very good money and risk management, without which we cannot come through the inevitable mistakes or failed trading plans.

I wish you a good relaxation, happiness and a fabtastic new year!

Chat soon
Cheers

~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #138
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:31pm Jan 27, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} In the previous post I have left you with this image. Here is the explanation of this section of the Bandwagon Theory allegory: In this phase, (Figure above) more traders get on board of the trending market which has already started decelerating. The move higher is almost completed and price is ready to reverse. Program Trading and professional traders have 1st or 2nd targets right above price. Opening a new long position at this stage is clearly a mistake: it’s too late and the probability to show losses, right away or after a first elating...
Hello all,
I wanted to continue with the next phase of the Bandwagon Theory and allegory:


“Now, reality sets in. The fun has turned into a nightmare of epic proportions, and panic begins to run rampant. Some decide to jump to their deaths. Another thrust backwards sends an even larger group of drunken, off balance people, hurling to the muddy ground. It doesn’t stop. The jolts backward continue, each successive one more violent than the last. At this point, only a few die-hard wagon dwellers are holding on, their very lives hanging in the balance by a very thin thread. Failing to be completely free, the bandwagon angrily puts the pedal to the metal, and this final thrust backward is so vicious that its front wheels lift high off the ground, momentarily suspending the wagon in a perpendicular position. The last of the hangers-on crash to the ground, broken and maimed to no end.”

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bandwagon illustrated 4.png Size: 48 KB


Till the next time...
Cheers
~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #139
  • Jan 28, 2014 8:35pm Jan 28, 2014 8:35pm
Hello traders,
a quick update on some of the markets I follow and trade: EUR/USD, S&P500 emini, Dollar Index futures and Gold mini futures.

The EUR/USD path of least resistance is still downwards on the daily chart. S&P500 could be retracing on the upside before completing its move into 1,757 where we will need to test long participation. Dollar Index apparently showing resistance, but if the correction in Euro continues will correct higher as anticipated. Finally gold hit and went through its 1st target and is now retracing

The short setups I have mentioned in my weekly Newsletter Review for EUR/USD and S&P500 are still on. Gold, on the other hand, has reached its first long target.

EUR/USD
After having a huge move higher due to Davos news (a move not supported by Program Trading), we saw the market slowly correcting lower into the 1.3623, 4 hour support level. Market is pushing lower on the daily timeframe and there is a clear 15min short too. Below the 1.3594 we will get confirmation of continuation towards the 1.3320 and, eventually, 1.2970.

S&P500 emini
This market pushed lower on friday and is now headed towards 1,757 where new program trading longs will be located. This area will need to be tested for participation using the FibStalking timing technique.

Dollar Index
The Dollar Index has short term resistance apparently but will continue higher if the Euro keeps correcting as anticipated.

Gold
Gold reached the first target at 1,263 and then price moved above it. It did not reach the second target at 1,288 but retraced and it is anticipated to find some long participation at 1,244 for another push higher towards 1,291 closer to that 1,302 area where we could witness new shorts.

If you are interested there is a related video on my blog here: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2014/...ary-28th-2014/

Have a great eve
Regards,,,
~FibStalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #140
  • Jan 29, 2014 9:16pm Jan 29, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting fibstalker
Hello traders, a quick update on some of the markets I follo [...]
Hello Traders,
following up on previous post, today I share today my daily review for the EUR/USD forex pair.

EUR/USD
The Euro is still showing a fierce battle between bulls and bear on several timeframes.
Particularly:

  1. on the daily, bears are located in the area starting at 1.3700 and bulls located in the area starting from 1.3620
  2. on the 240min, bears are guarding the area starting at 1.3670 and bulls are located in the 1.3620 area
  3. on the 15min, bears are guarding the area starting at 1.3670 and bulls are in area starting at 1.3640

All this information can be inferred by studying the effects of Program Trading on the different timeframes.

The related video can be found here: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2014/...ary-29th-2014/

Let me know your thoughts
Cheers
~FibStalker

"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
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