CoghlanCapital.com

http://www.coghlancapital.com

GC 240 min

As markets quieten down for the holiday week I just wanted to show this vehicle again and to point out how well the pitchfork has defined the path of price. Note the Median Line support, the Upper Parallel resistance and the continuing and renewed action along the Quartile.

Wishing everyone a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year......



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GC 240 min

I hope everyone had a good festive break.....

Not much change in precious metals but I wanted to point out some stepping up of support in the GC 240 fork that I have been showing for a while. If you were looking at things on the horizontal you would consider a stepping up of horizontal lows to be bullish - well we consider the same thing to be true if support is stepping up in the line of the fork...

Looking at the chart you can see that support was found at the Median Line and initial resistance was along the dashed Quartile. Price started to breach this Quartile in early December and the spike low on the 8th found support higher in the fork than the Median Line - this is shown by the blue dotted line. After price reached and then fell away from the Upper Parallel the support it found (green circle) was higher in the fork than the previous line of support shown by this blue line. You have support stepping up from the Median Line to the blue line to the green circle. I am also watching the action along the Quartile where a prior line of resistance appears to be turning into support.

I will continue to follow this and look to see if this strengthening of trend means that our major line of resistance (the Upper Parallel) will correspondingly move higher.....

Please note that we are not looking at this timeframe in isolation - subscribers are privy to numerous charts which help to build a more complete picture of what the vehicle is doing and is likely to do.......

To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]

(edited)

GC 240 min


Markets are still thin during the festive break but I have been asked to show one of the "other charts" I referred to in the previous post.

This pitchfork is smaller than the one that I have been showing until now but is exhibiting very good harmony with the path of price. As this is a downsloping fork I would only be taking shorts off this chart and the green circles show the line of Upper Parallel resistance where it could have been safely traded.

For example the fourth green circle shows a high of 1244.0 and a stop could have been placed above the previous high of 1247.6 allowing the short to be closed either at the Median Line at 1207.2 or at the Quartile at 1188.6 for very little initial risk.

I am watching to see if support - shown by the red arrows - having stepped down from the Median Line to the Quartile is now stepping up once more......

The second chart is detail of the first.

Please note that we are not looking at this timeframe in isolation - subscribers are privy to numerous charts which help to build a more complete picture of what the vehicle is doing and is likely to do.......

To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]

I will be holding a free webinar on Tuesday 7th January - registration at the following link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7647



(edited)

GC 240 min

Last update before the holiday - note that despite the very volatile last bar how price is still moving between support and resistance as shown by the angle of the pitchfork. By finding this path of price at an early stage the strengthening and weakening of trend can be closely followed.....

A scalping short could have been taken in the second green circle at 1208 and closed at the prior support of the Quartile in the red circle at 1184.

A Happy New Year to One and All........


To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]

I will be holding a free webinar on Tuesday 7th January - registration at the following link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7647 - where, amongst other things, I will look at a trade which could have returned 4100+ points since April.....



Edit 2nd Jan - note that the stepping up of support that I have referred to previously has taken price above the prior resistance of the Upper Parallel - what is very telling is the spike low in the red circle has stepped up exactly to the Quartile (prior resistance turned support) .... Am watching to see if the Upper Parallel now turns into further support or whether this move is just a flush - will try to update in detail later.....

Thanks for your excellent posts, Beeb, much appreciated.

I have recently returned to the Pitchfork fold after following your posts some two years ago, now on the longer time frames 1H and 4H. Much more reliable.

I know the Pitchforks work in anticipating/predicting future moves. What I am interested in, is WHY the Pitchfork seem to be so reliable in predicting future price movements. Harmonics, like the dampening of the movement of a pulled spring?

I will be looking forward to your ideas.

Hi Ikdenk - Thanks for your comments.

My suggestion would be to step back a moment from the pitchfork etc. What we are looking to establish is the path of price and the pitchfork is used to define that - the important thing is the path of price.

I am not bothered whether price is inside or outside the pitchfork - what I am looking at is to see that I have correctly found this path of price and the pitchfork is there merely to gauge the strengthening or weakening of trend along that path. That is one of the reasons why I don't bother with suggestions that eg "80% of the time a move from the Median Line makes it to the Upper Parallel...."

I hope that makes sense... If you are interested, I have a free webinar next week with registration here - http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7647 - registrants will get sent a link to a recording if they can't actually attend.

Also have a look at the website http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA in the blue bar go to About Us > Andrews Pitchfork - you may find it of interest....

Thanks again for your comments

Ben (beeb)

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GC 240 min

Following on from above I want to look at the clues which told us that the line of resistance provided since early December by the Upper Parallel was under threat.

We use the pitchfork to gauge the trend along the path of price - whether it is strengthening or weakening. On the horizontal, when you see support rising (higher lows) you consider that resistance will be put under pressure and that you may see it rising too. It is exactly the same in Median Line Analysis except that we are looking at rising support along the line of the fork.

In the chart you can see that for most of November price ran along a channel defined by the Median Line as support and the Quartile as resistance. In early December the highs started spiking above this Quartile and support stepped up from the Median Line to a higher Sliding Parallel (letter A). Resistance stepped up too, and the Upper Parallel (red circles) became the line of resistance. A new channel was forming higher in the fork and when price fell, it found support at the Quartile - resistance becoming support is bullish whether on the horizontal or along the line of a pitchfork. When price dipped through the Quartile it found support along another Sliding Parallel (letter B). The fact that letter B was higher in the pitchfork than letter A was again bullish. Price was stepping up and it did so once again when it found support once more along the Quartile. This was confirmed at letter C where support was maintained along the Quartile despite the strong spike down. The fact that there was a strong move through the Upper Parallel by the arrowed bar shows a solid breach of the prior resistance.

The move to the upside could have been traded using shorter timeframes - subscribers are privy to them - with confirmation of the likelihood of this move coming from the action that I have described in this 240 min chart.


To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]

I will be holding a free webinar on Tuesday 7th January - registration at the following link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7647 - where, amongst other things, I will look at a trade which could have returned 4100+ points since April.....


(edited)

NZDCAD 60 min

I received an email asking if I had any thoughts about the NZDCAD in the shorter term.....

The chart shows the NZDCAD 60 min and despite the price basically moving sideways for the last couple of weeks there is a noticeable change of trend as it transitions from the red downfork to the blue upfork. Support in the red fork stepped up from the Median Line to the Quartile and it was no surprise to see the Upper Parallel breach - what was definitely more interesting was to note the next areas of support on top of this Upper Parallel (as shown in the green circles).

This stepping up of support led me to draw the blue fork to the upside using the very distinct pivots marked A,B and C and I'm now looking for the movement of price in the new fork to validate that it is defining the path of price. The arrowed touch at the Upper Parallel followed by the arrowed series of bars at the Median Line will cause me to continue to track the strengthening and weakening of trend in the pitchfork.

A very safe long taken could have been taken at 0.8760 at the second or third bar at the Median Line with a stop below the first bar at 0.8755 and would now be well in profit with the stop moved above breakeven.



To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]

I will be holding a free webinar tomorrow, Tuesday 7th January - registration at the following link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7647 - where, amongst other things, I will look at a trade which could have returned 4100+ points since April.....


(edited)

GC 240 min

Following on from the pitchfork shown numerous times above, please note the exact place where the $30 spike down on massive volume found support. Prior resistance becoming support ......



To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]

I will be holding a free webinar tomorrow, Tuesday 7th January - registration at the following link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7647 - where, amongst other things, I will look at a trade which could have returned 4100+ points since April.....


(edited)

NZDCAD 60

Following on from above we can see that price is indeed respecting the path of price defined by the pitchfork. The move from the blue Median Line to the Upper Parallel would have allowed a very safe long to be taken at 0.8760 at the second or third bar at the Median Line with a stop below the first bar at 0.8755 - this could have been exited at the Upper Parallel at 0.8842 for a comfortable gain.

Price has since moved lower to find support at the Quartile - a higher low - and if this continues we would look for price to once more challenge and perhaps breach the Upper Parallel.

EDIT - Price has indeed, as anticipated, moved through the Upper Parallel.... I will try to look at this in today's webinar



To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]

I will be holding a free webinar at midday ET today - registration at the following link:

http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7647 - where, amongst other things, I will look at a trade which could have returned 4100+ points since April.....


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Link to a recording of today's webinar - http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723

And to yesterday's - http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7713



To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]



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NZDCAD 60 min

Following on from above we can see that price has progressed well along the lines defined by the fork. I look at this in some detail in the Tuesday webinar linked below.

After validation in the red circle price put in a series of bars at the Median Line and a low-risk long could have been taken at the first red arrow at about 0.8760 with a stop below prior support at 0.8755. This could have been ridden to the Upper Parallel (prior resistance) and closed in the green circle at about 0.8840

The continuing resistance and stepping up of support allowed a second low-risk long to be taken at the Quartile (second arrow) at about 0.8812 with a stop below prior support at 0.8808 - this was done with the expectation that rising support would also cause resistance to rise. Again this happened and the second trade could have been closed at the D of the red AB=CD formation at about 0.8930

These two trades detailed in Tuesday's webinar were worth a combined 200 points and were each taken with a stoploss of 10 points maximum.........


Link to a recording of Tuesday's webinar - http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723

And to Monday's - http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7713



To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]


(edited)

GBPNZD 60 mins

I am wary of markets as we approach NFP but here is another pair that has worked very well.

I talk about the validation of this blue pitchfork in Tuesday's webinar (linked below) - the Median Line action was relevant but the key part was the Sliding Parallel beneath the Lower Parallel. An aggressive trader would be looking at this and also the potential support given by the Lower Parallel of the untested red fork - I know of at least one subscriber who took this trade. A long would have been taken at the second red arrow in the area of 1.9756 with a stop placed below the previous low at the first red arrow ie beneath 1.9749.

Despite the very tight stop described the target of the trade would be the Quartile - a prior and proven line of support as shown by the green circle. Price did indeed move to this Quartile as shown by the third red arrow at 1.9960 before rejecting from this line. Price has since pushed through this resistance and we continue to monitor it.

Median Line Analysis using pitchforks allows us to accurately predict lines or areas of support and resistance and to take potentially profitable trades with minimised risk - in this case a stop of 10 points or so could have led to a trade approaching 200 points.....


If you have time over the weekend have a look at our recent webinars......
Link to a recording of Tuesday's webinar - http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723

And to Monday's - http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7713

To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]


(edited)

EURCAD 60 min

When looking to trade I will only go short in a downtrending fork and long in an uptrending one – this is partly because of risk/reward but mainly in order to ensure that I have a solid nearby stop should things move against me. However we can use a downtrending fork to track a move to the upside by watching the strengthening and weakening of trend in the fork.

This recent example shown in Chart 1 is provided by the EURCAD 60 minute. I had been following the movement of price to the upside via the blue fork and in late December noted that price was running into Sliding Parallel resistance in the green circle. Prior (and later) resistance along this dotted blue line is shown by the red circles.
When price started to fall I drew the red fork to the downside. Chart 2 shows this fork in more detail.

I was anticipating support to be found in the area of the Lower Parallel of the blue fork, and the red fork was most useful in giving me context. As we approached the Lower Parallel of the red fork I noticed a series of lows forming in the line of the fork - just above this Lower Parallel – shown by the three red arrows and the dotted red line. Remember that it is the path of price that we are always looking to determine.

This context from the red fork – together with the blue Sliding Parallel support allowed a very safe long to be taken in the line of the blue fork as detailed in last Tuesday’s Webinar, the link to which is below. Price moved strongly higher and we found anticipated resistance in the purple circle at the conjunction of a blue Sliding Parallel and the red Upper Parallel. This was a move from 1.4410 to 1.4430. Price then retraced 100 pips or so from this anticipated resistance to the second purple circle at the conjunction of another blue Sliding Parallel and the red Quartile.

This stepping up of support not surprisingly led to a move above the red Upper Parallel. When price retraced once more into the red fork, it bottomed at the second red arrow – this was along a Sliding Parallel (marked in green) where prior resistance at the first red arrow now became support. On the horizontal when resistance becomes support the implication is bullish – it’s exactly the same when it happens in the line of the fork.

Price accordingly has moved higher once more and can be seen in Chart 1 to have found resistance once more along the same blue Sliding Parallel in the third red circle at 1.4950.

Hopefully I have shown that following the strengthening and weakening of price in a downfork can even help to track it when it is moving to the upside.



I have looked in detail at this vehicle, as well as at many others in last Tuesday's Webinar which is linked below:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723


To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

email: [email protected]


(edited)

GBPAUD 240 min

I have written a number of times about the importance of the path of price and how it does not matter if price is within or without the confines of the fork so long as we are correctly describing this path.

A good example of this occurred yesterday in the GBPAUD 60 that we had been following for some time - I am showing it here as a 240 min chart with much of the annotation and detail removed for simplicity.

The narrow fork starting in October correctly defined this path of price even when it reached it's high in the green circle at 1.8697. We tracked the move all the way to the highs (detail not shown here) and then followed the fall via another fork (also not shown). Members were notified via our chat facility that price was looking to find support at the Lower Parallel of the blue fork (red circle) at 1.8015. Despite not interacting with this line since mid November, price stopped declining at it almost to the cent - and since then price has rebounded some 150 points. This low would probably not have been discernable without the Median Line Analysis that we employ......


To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

You may also be interested in last Tuesday's Webinar which is linked below:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723


email: [email protected]


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Hey beeb!

Well, she certainly did break outta that one!

Nice to see an update if possible !

Thanks mate!
XT-

BTW: Nice analysis on all these crosses.

Thanks for your comments XTrade - unfortunately in fairness to members that are subscribing to our services I only show a very small selection of the numerous charts that we are following and analysing ......


GBPAUD 60 min

Following on from the 240 min chart shown above I wanted to show the reaction that we have seen in a bit more detail. You will remember that we tracked price as it fell from 1.8697 until it found support at the Lower Parallel of the pitchfork emanating from mid October as shown by the first red arrow.

Looking closely one can see that after rapidly falling nearly seven hundred points price did indeed dip under the Lower Parallel by ten points or so before rebounding to the upside. Think of it like a trampoline - as the Lower Parallel needed a little bit of leeway to absorb the energy of the fall. But we noted at the first red arrow how price rebounded to the upside alerting us to this line still being active support.

Members were alerted to this via the chat facility on our website and a return to the Lower Parallel could have seen a long position taken. You will notice at the second red arrow that there are two bars with similar lows of 1.8036 and 1.8034 - seeing that the first one held just above the Lower Parallel one would be able to go long on the second one at this level. A stop could be placed under the low of the first bar or more conservatively beneath the spike low at the first arrow.

Since then price has moved strongly to the upside showing a high of 1.8429 - approximately 400 points from the Lower Parallel and the action described above......



To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

You may also be interested in last Tuesday's Webinar which is linked below:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723


email: [email protected]


(edited)

GBPAUD 60min

Following on from above this vehicle has moved about 600 points from the very precise Lower Parallel bounce/entry.

I have added the red fork that I was using to track the falling price and you will note that the previously detailed long entry was at the conjunction of the red and blue Lower Parallels in the green circle. Price moved from there to the red Upper Parallel where it retraced to where the red Quartile meets the blue Upper Parallel - this 150 point move is shown by the purple circles. Price has now moved above the red pitchfork and we are tracking it's progress in the blue pitchfork via the abcd formation.

EDIT - price has now reached a high of 1.8731 which is +725 points from our entry and just shy of the D at 1.8755

I hope that I have given an idea of how Median Line Analysis using pitchforks allows us to accurately predict lines or areas of support and resistance and to take potentially profitable trades with minimised risk.....


To find out more about our services, please follow this link:
http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

You may also be interested in last last Tuesday's Webinar which is linked below:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723


email: [email protected]



(edited)

hello mr coghlancapital wonderful charts i am seeign you posting here. wonderful lessons in the hindsight. any chance u can post some trade explorer or statement here?

"in fairness to members that are subscribing to our services I only show a very small selection of the numerous charts that we are following and analysing" . so you are charging for the services spendign many hours makign charts but can't post the statement.

Hi there - thanks for the comment

I'm not quite sure what you're saying here - maybe something lost in translation...

The Cross Pair service is an analysis service not a trading service. Members are located around the world and the extensive daily analysis allows them to enter trades in their own timezones and to their own risk/reward requirements. Other Coghlan Capital services offer real time trades - follow this link to the website for further details:

http://affiliate.coghlancapital.com/...C4wLjAuMC4wLjA

You may also be interested in last last Tuesday's Webinar which is linked below:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7723

You can email me for further info: [email protected]

All the best

Ben (beeb)


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