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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,601
  • Edited 6:55pm Jan 13, 2014 6:43pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting billytt
where have all the traders gone? ooo it sounds like a 60s song. Anyway I did say I was maybe going to trade oil but it never happened just as well it would of been a good trade, INSTEAD I tried my trial method out on g/u and OMG I actually had a loss. I managed to get back into it though, I am still short but hey ho AND I am doing the trading manually woo hoo........... PREDICTION TIME, and I am being serious, can anyone predict what a pair will not do as opposed to what it will do, will your odds still be 50/50 with your analysis or what ever,...
What I said in previous post, I am being slightly wicked but it is all for my friend and his solicitor, but wouldn't it be good if you could trade not only with positive info but trade the negative.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,602
  • Jan 13, 2014 7:17pm Jan 13, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting Turveyd
A) not that fussed, only 1 here making money. B) will have another look when i get time later. C) every need for 80%, can't all be losers
Turv you are not seriously backing out of myfxbook already are you?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,603
  • Jan 13, 2014 7:46pm Jan 13, 2014 7:46pm
Alright lets get back to topic, i`ve found this very nice article on the internet which explains very simply how the market works why its not totally random, and what structures or mechanisms are present.Furthermore the difference between stock and fx, which i adressed too, the part where the stocks are emotion based while the FX is only an economic supply -demand based.

Anyway its a very interesting article, guys might want to read it if you have time:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent...ge-669187.html

I had a very similar theory about the aspect of the fx markets, but i learned also a few new stuff.

The part which i liked:

Quote
There is no sentimental or emotional impact on a currency.

I think many of the newbies here are still believing that fx is ruled by emotions when its not, the speculators power in forex is a tiny dust compared to other economic factors which move the market.Thats the difference between currencies and stocks.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,604
  • Edited 9:03pm Jan 13, 2014 8:39pm | Edited 9:03pm
Quoting Proximus
Alright lets get back to topic, i`ve found this very nice article on the internet which explains very simply how the market works why its not totally random, and what structures or mechanisms are present.Furthermore the difference between stock and fx, which i adressed too, the part where the stocks are emotion based while the FX is only an economic supply -demand based. Anyway its a very interesting article, guys might want to read it if you have time: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent...ge-669187.html...
interesting, thanks. let me give it a read, then i'll post my thoughts.

although i can tell you right now... there is ONE concept which applies to all markets... regardless of how you trade.

and that is the concept of ORDER FLOW

it doesn't matter if you can see it or not, it's always there

the amazing thing is that you can actually predict the order flow in FX (and in indices like SPY, FTSE, DAX, Nikkei, or whatever) if you know how. but not so much in stocks, like you said, because they have to report a little something called earnings. LOL.

i believe that is why all the people with massive amounts of money do not trade stocks but rather indices or FX or futures. it is because they are more predictable.

... OK, going to read the article now.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,605
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:07am Jan 14, 2014 12:07am
Good article

But the title is deceiving.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,606
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:46am Jan 14, 2014 12:46am
Proximus, you've got a message
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,607
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:36am Jan 14, 2014 3:36am
Quoting Proximus
Alright lets get back to topic, i`ve found this very nice article on the internet which explains very simply how the market works why its not totally random, and what structures or mechanisms are present.Furthermore the difference between stock and fx, which i adressed too, the part where the stocks are emotion based while the FX is only an economic supply -demand based. Anyway its a very interesting article, guys might want to read it if you have time: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent...ge-669187.html...
hi bud, that in itself is a newbie remark. You are partially right.
If you want to trade like a pro you need to study how they trade not just read up on technical things , over the head crap,blah blah.
Open Range Breakout was primarily developed for stocks and how well it works but it can be adapted for forex which I used, even on SPs thread he had a method.
Whatever you do do when you trade KEEP IT SIMPLE. I had a quick look at Magix method that too looks promising but in my eyes it could of been made easier (and no I am not having dig at it)
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,608
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:08am Jan 14, 2014 4:08am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Turv you are not seriously backing out of myfxbook already are you?

I'll post live trades when I / IF I ever get time to, then I'll post screen shots from FXBOOK to back it up.


Not showing my history, not looked again since, but think it shows entire account.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,609
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:32am Jan 14, 2014 4:32am
morning T, People are obsessed with wanting to see your account lol, SHOW IT ME lol.
The thing is it is so easy to fabricate that sort of thing, Just make a few adjustments and post the figures how you made a billion dollars last Fri NFP.
I am having a coffee, I am working on a new trading method .(ok it might not be new) but I have never seen it before. Once it looks good it'll go to an associate who will package it to look good and add the TALK and hey presto.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,610
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:54am Jan 14, 2014 4:54am
No live tests at present, I got out of the g/u and will be testing it again when the time is right. My old favourite Oil isn't showing any entry signs but I am watching it,,, it is due to MOVE wayhay slight prediction
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,611
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:18am Jan 14, 2014 6:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 140114.PNG Size: 69 KB

g/u 15 minute time frame zoomed out, no date on chart duh but it goes back to approx. 2nd jan . I am interested in the circled areas.nice levels and they play along with the stats. the 16400 area down to 16360 area that is of interest to me regarding stats. lets see what happens and no, I am not in the trade yet BECAUSE not even I know where it is bound, unless I guess lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,612
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:36am Jan 14, 2014 6:36am
Quoting billytt
morning T, People are obsessed with wanting to see your account lol, SHOW IT ME lol. The thing is it is so easy to fabricate that sort of thing, Just make a few adjustments and post the figures how you made a billion dollars last Fri NFP. I am having a coffee, I am working on a new trading method .(ok it might not be new) but I have never seen it before. Once it looks good it'll go to an associate who will package it to look good and add the TALK and hey presto.
hey T, don't show to me, I don't want to see it. I trust that you have a good one.

I have the perfect method for pancakes ( they come 3 in a package) which I shall be trying shortly.
Good luck with your trades. News at 8:30 am est could be interesting.
I wouldn't quite call what I am doing today a METHOD...
  • #1,613
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:39am Jan 14, 2014 6:39am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} hey T, don't show to me, I don't want to see it. I trust that you have a good one. I have the perfect method for pancakes ( they come 3 in a package) which I shall be trying shortly. Good luck with your trades. News at 8:30 am est could be interesting.
you need more than 3 pancakes, They are sooooooooooooooo good yum yum, Thats an idea I might make some for lunch
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,614
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:41am Jan 14, 2014 6:41am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} hey T, don't show to me, I don't want to see it. I trust that you have a good one. I have the perfect method for pancakes ( they come 3 in a package) which I shall be trying shortly. Good luck with your trades. News at 8:30 am est could be interesting. I wouldn't quite call what I am doing today a METHOD...

lol its like a metal guitarist when confused, hit the G chord
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,615
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:02am Jan 14, 2014 10:02am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} hey T, don't show to me, I don't want to see it. I trust that you have a good one. I have the perfect method for pancakes ( they come 3 in a package) which I shall be trying shortly. Good luck with your trades. News at 8:30 am est could be interesting. I wouldn't quite call what I am doing today a METHOD...


Hmmmm pancaked, not helping my diet must eat pancakes.


Running around the uk having meeting, ahhh to be full time trader
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,616
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:04am Jan 14, 2014 10:04am
wooooooooooooooo billy has been scalping, <<<< sign of boredom...
I thank Proxy for getting me to think .. it was something to do with his boob pattern so I thought wayhay try scalping , so far so good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,617
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:46am Jan 14, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I'll post live trades when I / IF I ever get time to, then I'll post screen shots from FXBOOK to back it up. Not showing my history, not looked again since, but think it shows entire account.
Myfxbook is customized, just like the TE here. I get it Turv, if stats get involved some truths get exposed. Have a profitable programming week!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,618
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:17pm Jan 14, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting Proximus
Alright lets get back to topic, i`ve found this very nice article on the internet which explains very simply how the market works why its not totally random, and what structures or mechanisms are present.Furthermore the difference between stock and fx, which i adressed too, the part where the stocks are emotion based while the FX is only an economic supply -demand based. Anyway its a very interesting article, guys might want to read it if you have time: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent...ge-669187.html...
That's nonsense, Proximus. Bubbles occur in FX markets just like any other market, and bubbles are driven by irrational emotional behavior, not "pure" economics.

In July 2008, the EURUSD was at 1.60. By October 2008, only four months later, the EURUSD was at 1.23. Two months later, it was back up to 1.47.

By the way, I think you're completely wrong about the FX market. Commercial operations account for the smallest segment of the FX market, about 10%. The vast majority of transactions in the FX market are speculative in some form of another.

Quote
The majority of Foreign Exchange transactions are neither directly related to international trade nor to international settlements but are in fact speculative in nature. For every trade-related transaction in the FOREX Market, there are about 7 to 9 speculative ones. Foreign Exchange is the world's fastest growing industry today and its growth can be attributed to its substantial liquidity and to the orderly manner in which it functions.

See also "The anatomy of the global FX market through the lens of the 2013 Triennial Survey" (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1312e.htm)
  • #1,619
  • Jan 14, 2014 2:16pm Jan 14, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} That's nonsense, Proximus. Bubbles occur in FX markets just like any other market, and bubbles are driven by irrational emotional behavior, not "pure" economics. In July 2008, the EURUSD was at 1.60. By October 2008, only four months later, the EURUSD was at 1.23. Two months later, it was back up to 1.47. By the way, I think you're completely wrong about the FX market. Commercial operations account for the smallest segment of the FX market, about 10%. The vast majority of transactions in the FX market are speculative in some form of another....
well said sir, I do not normally read anything what so ever if it looks slightly technical/over MY head , but what you wrote is quite simplistic and lets hope the newbies learn a bit
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,620
  • Jan 14, 2014 2:21pm Jan 14, 2014 2:21pm
woo woo what fun I have had scalping, I have not done this for ages (18 months maybe) I got nearly 50 pips plus a small compound
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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