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  • #21
  • Jan 11, 2014 10:47pm Jan 11, 2014 10:47pm
Since its the week-end...
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  • #22
  • Jan 11, 2014 11:08pm Jan 11, 2014 11:08pm
Quoting Capelli
The end of December and beginning of January are likely to be bullish for the Euro. First we had news that says that Draghi sees no further rate cut while we had another official from the Bundesbank saying that a rise in interest rate could be possible. Those word will have an important impact and favor for the Euro http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...51#post7178837
the Governing Council strongly emphasises that it will maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy for as long as necessary, which will assist the gradual economic recovery in the euro area. Accordingly, we firmly reiterate our forward guidance that we continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvser...140109.en.html
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #23
  • Edited Jan 12, 2014 12:16am Jan 11, 2014 11:53pm | Edited Jan 12, 2014 12:16am
Quoting PIPot
{quote} the Governing Council strongly emphasises that it will maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy for as long as necessary, which will assist the gradual economic recovery in the euro area. Accordingly, we firmly reiterate our forward guidance that we continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvser...140109.en.html

Thanks a lot for the link. I didnt have the time to watch it. Please stick around
  • #24
  • Jan 12, 2014 12:22am Jan 12, 2014 12:22am
Quoting PIPot
{quote} the Governing Council strongly emphasises that it will maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy for as long as necessary, which will assist the gradual economic recovery in the euro area. Accordingly, we firmly reiterate our forward guidance that we continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvser...140109.en.html

Even after this speech, I feel like the ECB members are not very clear. Sometime they say something and then a couple day after they say another thing. I wanted to short the USD against the Euro, but the direction of the Euro is getting more and more uncertain. Im thinking of moving the the Cable instead of EUR/USD or USD/CHF
  • #25
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:48pm Jan 12, 2014 5:48pm
In situation like we had last week, with depressing US job numbers, people tend to transfer their money in safe-heaven like the CHF or the JPY. Im wondering if thats what is happenning right now or if the increase in the Yen value is just temporary
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  • #26
  • Jan 12, 2014 7:45pm Jan 12, 2014 7:45pm
Quoting Capelli
In situation like we had last week, with depressing US job numbers, people tend to transfer their money in safe-heaven like the CHF or the JPY. Im wondering if thats what is happenning right now or if the increase in the Yen value is just temporary {image} {image}

Looks like there's a huge momentum for the Yen. The week has only started and I would expect further gain
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  • #27
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:07pm Jan 12, 2014 10:07pm
Just to rap up things. The 3 most important pairs right now are the USD, CAD and JPY.

The Fundies are heavily against the USD and the CAD, but the technical analysis favor a rise for the CAD ( since it lost everyday for the past 5 days and has to rest at some points). The Yen is probably going to be this week biggest gainer due to the fact that people are moving toward the safe-heaven. AUD and CHF could also gain because they too could be safe-heaven.

There is confusion as to what will happen to the Euro and GBP.
  • #28
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:05pm Jan 14, 2014 9:05pm
I really had a bad trading day today. Since I woke up late, I missed a very important entry in EUR/NZD. To add to that, I left that pair too early once I was in, leaving at 1.64 instead of my early target of 1.643. Not making profits on a trade that I had well planned is worst than having a loosing trade for me

Nevertheless, I had a winning trading day today. I was expecting the EURo to gain vs both the Yen and the NZD and my plan worked well. Now Im out of lead and will be waiting for the next trading setup. Its only Tuesday and I feel like I went through an entire week
  • #29
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:51pm Jan 14, 2014 9:51pm
The canadian Dollar is he biggest long term loser right now and its not done falling :

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...01#post7211977
  • #30
  • Jan 15, 2014 10:43am Jan 15, 2014 10:43am
Oil finely bounced. Today Crude oil inventory where lower than expected indicating that the demand was strong. No surprise that the CAD gained with it too :
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  • #31
  • Jan 15, 2014 2:54pm Jan 15, 2014 2:54pm
In contrast to the CAD, the New Zealand Dollar was the biggest gainer since the beginning of the year. People are speculating about a rise in interest rate for New Zealand. The currency didnt gain much when the news was released in November but now the market favors the NZD for that possibility :

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/25/auto-draft-2/
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  • #32
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:34pm Jan 15, 2014 6:34pm
Very bad new for Autralia. Employement number were very bad. It had a huge impact on that currency. This trend haas a good potential so I shorted AUD/CHF :
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  • #33
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:13pm Jan 15, 2014 7:13pm
Quoting Capelli
Very bad new for Autralia. Employement number were very bad. It had a huge impact on that currency. This trend haas a good potential so I shorted AUD/CHF : {image}

EUR/AUD is up for 200 pips! I guess it was the good pair to trade. Anyways Im making my profits. Right now AUD is at the 3 years low. This job number is likely to have a huge toll on the AUD and continue the trend downward.
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  • #34
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:42pm Jan 15, 2014 7:42pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} EUR/AUD is up for 200 pips! I guess it was the good pair to trade. Anyways Im making my profits. Right now AUD is at the 3 years low. This job number is likely to have a huge toll on the AUD and continue the trend downward. {image} {image}

A more appropriate chart that show that we will probably break the support level that we are in :
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  • #35
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:44pm Jan 15, 2014 7:44pm
loving the charts Capelli! Im short AUDJPY
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #36
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:45pm Jan 15, 2014 7:45pm
Quoting Rtm
loving the charts Capelli! Im short AUDJPY

Thank you . Any specific reason why agains the Yen ??
  • #37
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:56pm Jan 15, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} Thank you . Any specific reason why agains the Yen ??

This thing has been winding up for a LONG ass time and usually the longer it winds up the more powerful the break is. Well the break was pretty powerful IMO so I want to catch the mid term move here that continues on that initial break
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #38
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:03pm Jan 15, 2014 8:03pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} This thing has been winding up for a LONG ass time and usually the longer it winds up the more powerful the break is. Well the break was pretty powerful IMO so I want to catch the mid term move here that continues on that initial break

I see. In that case I would suggest you to pay close attention to all the US news tomorow. They should have an important impact on the Yen depending on how good or bad they are. People fled toward to Yen as a Safe-Heaven after the bad NFP number and what they think the Fed could do because of that.

I personaly wont be available to cover those hour so I didnt open any pairs related to the USD or JPY, but be prepare for the worst tomorrow and trade well
  • #39
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:06pm Jan 15, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting Capelli
Very bad new for Autralia. Employement number were very bad. It had a huge impact on that currency. This trend haas a good potential so I shorted AUD/CHF : {image}
not really... Just big market players reacted to where they want A$ to be.... AUDUSD 85 cents below
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #40
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:11pm Jan 15, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting PIPot
{quote} not really... Just big market players reacted to where they want A$ to be.... AUDUSD 85 cents below

Check EUR/AUD and you might change your mind. Besides, on the 1Month timeframe the AUD/USD seems to be breaking an important support level
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