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  • #1,561
  • Jan 10, 2014 9:22pm Jan 10, 2014 9:22pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} 1. It can be done...you cannot conceptualize because you have zero market understanding. 2. I have and continue to provide stats...but because you have claimed to have not read my posts, you don't even realize this. I don't follow your posts, if you never mentioned my nick, again, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. 3. Yes. Trading OPM is stressful, in the beginning. There is a definite mindset to taking your first standard lot trade if you've never traded a standard lot, but then it becomes like any other job...somebody else busting...
1. your an idiot!
2. Is that a threat, seriously LOL big man when 1000+ miles apart there.
3. I wouldn't let you trade with my $10, I think your a total egotistic, stupid, whacko nut job, with no real market understanding, obviously you have a fictional version based on, some madness you've got.

I trade when I see a good setup, nothing more, get over it, I'm not trading your account, your not my boss, F OFF!!

SEEK MENTAL HELP!!!



Keep your 2nd hand brain dead opinion to yourself, stop taking this thread off topic Trolling me, cause I said something about you, learn to take a JOKE and grow the F up!!

No point talking to you, I will not waste my time, clicking View Post again!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,562
  • Edited 11:05pm Jan 10, 2014 10:27pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting Proximus
So FX is way more practical for me, but its harder to trade unfortunately But when i will crack the EUR/USD market, and find the ultimate system, it will be worth it
I think I've finally found someone as ambitious as I am.

I want to crack the GBP/JPY market ie "the beast" and I plan on making an EA that will trade 24/7 around the clock. I don't plan on focusing on any correlations but specifically on the Geppy, as I believe it drives most of the market and is a leading indicator of its own. News will be included but that will be coded into the EA last. I still have a lot of work to do, but I plan on getting it done, and I'm gonna work on it more this weekend. Anyone is welcome to join me in my journey, but it's safe to say you can call me ambitious.

Also, I think FX is pretty cool, but fx options are even cooler (equity options too). One day in the future I'd like to write a program that can trade options much like an EA can trade FX, but I'm still pretty far from that point.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,563
  • Edited Jan 11, 2014 12:20am Jan 10, 2014 11:00pm | Edited Jan 11, 2014 12:20am
Quoting jmn5611
He has publicly stated that Grid EA's blow up eventually. You see he is actually working a project to help other traders, trying to find out when to shut the EA off.
Although my knowledge of martingales and grids is limited, I can think of some answers to that question. Conceptually, it's very easy. Technically, it's hard to define.

I'm still working on implementation though so please excuse me if I refrain from giving my exact thoughts.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,564
  • Jan 11, 2014 5:54am Jan 11, 2014 5:54am
Proxy,

Where do you get your max 60% with a 1:1 from and the rest of your bad teachings, why do you not question them, why do believe the first thing you hear for ever?

Bet you tell people it's to cold to snow


So when I prove greater than 60% will you ignore it, or be forced to question your beliefs ?
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,565
  • Jan 11, 2014 6:01am Jan 11, 2014 6:01am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I think I've finally found someone as ambitious as I am. I want to crack the GBP/JPY market ie "the beast" and I plan on making an EA that will trade 24/7 around the clock. I don't plan on focusing on any correlations but specifically on the Geppy, as I believe it drives most of the market and is a leading indicator of its own. News will be included but that will be coded into the EA last. I still have a lot of work to do, but I plan on getting it done, and I'm gonna work on it more this weekend. Anyone is welcome to join me in my...

I once considered a complete EA with news times and every real rule under the sun, but the logic especially through mt3 at the time, gets so complex it becomes a nightmare.

And I'm a solo System programmer \ anaylst who develops bespoke software to run huge companys, and thinks nothing of 10,000 lines of code.

So good luck with that project and no I'm not helping, I have more than enough coding to do.

Also GJ didn't have a huge move recently, for those kinda returns, you must be trading seriously out of the money calls, huge risk.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,566
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:02am Jan 11, 2014 7:02am
Quoting Turveyd
Proxy, Where do you get your max 60% with a 1:1 from and the rest of your bad teachings, why do you not question them, why do believe the first thing you hear for ever? Bet you tell people it's to cold to snow So when I prove greater than 60% will you ignore it, or be forced to question your beliefs ?
80% is just too much, if you'd really have 80% winrate with 1:1 RR you could make 1 billion dollar in a week friend

80% WR with 1:1 has an expectancy of 0.6, meaning that for every dollar risked you get back on average 0.6 guaranteed on every trade, so if you have a constant risk of only 5%, starting with only 100$, then suppose that for a 100$ account thats 5$ initial risk with a 3% constant growth, so
that being said 3% account growth /trade

With 5% risk i think you can trade with 1:1 leverage, so for sake of simplicity i just calculated with 1:1 leverage.

So only after 400 trades, which i suppose you already had in the past 8 years or so,and only starting with a 100$ account with a constant 5% risk always, you should have made: 13,642,371.82 $ (and you only would have needed a 100$ initial account for this and 400 trades)

And if you made that much, i dont think you'd be hanging out on forums.
--------------------------------
Besides you didnt proved nothing yet, but i will check your system if you wish, i`m curious how much truth is in there, i certainly dont believe you have a 0.6 expectancy, but 0.2 is well enough for a profitable system, and if your system is worth anything, it could be better than nothing
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,567
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:11am Jan 11, 2014 7:11am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I think I've finally found someone as ambitious as I am. I want to crack the GBP/JPY market ie "the beast" and I plan on making an EA that will trade 24/7 around the clock. I don't plan on focusing on any correlations but specifically on the Geppy, as I believe it drives most of the market and is a leading indicator of its own. News will be included but that will be coded into the EA last. I still have a lot of work to do, but I plan on getting it done, and I'm gonna work on it more this weekend. Anyone is welcome to join me in my...
I`m sorry i`m busy now with my own EA, but if i finish i might join you, but just to give you 1 time, dont bother news trading, news on the spot can only be traded if you have a true ECN with no or type spread, probably one which substracts comissions rather than spread, and a lightning execution speed.

Any good broker which has that properties requires a bigger deposit than the small ones, so its really up to you if you'd want to risk that , and also note that even the best broker can lagg at news times.

So until you build up a pile of cash, its more safe to just trade the market in its balanced state when there is nothing unusual there.

Ok volatility is good, but dont want to exxagerate, huge spikes can also ruin your account just as to boost it, so for me i just play safe and risk small amounts on trades, preferably 1-2% of account size, meaning that no trade should lose me more than 2%, so i must count in spikes and lagg and slippage and the spread too.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,568
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:28am Jan 11, 2014 7:28am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} 80% is just too much, if you'd really have 80% winrate with 1:1 RR you could make 1 billion dollar in a week friend 80% WR with 1:1 has an expectancy of 0.6, meaning that for every dollar risked you get back on average 0.6 guaranteed on every trade, so if you have a constant risk of only 5%, starting with only 100$, then suppose that for a 100$ account thats 5$ initial risk with a 3% constant growth, so that being said 3% account growth /trade With 5% risk i think you can trade with 1:1 leverage, so for sake of simplicity i just calculated...
Please start adding 1 to all of your "expectancy" figures, unless you really do mean that the expectancy is losing money.

If I put in 1 dollar, and get back 60 cents, I lost 40 cents. If I put in 1 dollar, and get back $1.60, I gained 60 cents.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,569
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:33am Jan 11, 2014 7:33am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} 80% is just too much, if you'd really have 80% winrate with 1:1 RR you could make 1 billion dollar in a week friend 80% WR with 1:1 has an expectancy of 0.6, meaning that for every dollar risked you get back on average 0.6 guaranteed on every trade, so if you have a constant risk of only 5%, starting with only 100$, then suppose that for a 100$ account thats 5$ initial risk with a 3% constant growth, so that being said 3% account growth /trade With 5% risk i think you can trade with 1:1 leverage, so for sake of simplicity i just calculated...

Okay, only been on his method for 4 weeks, 3 month since the start, I'm approx +40% over that time, with 30trades maybe, but method's improved over that time.

currently risking 3% say, 4 up, 1 down, so 3 positive trades in every 5, 9%, think 10trades per week, so +18% per week without getting to picky.

$500 start value. 6months time I expect to be at 37K based on those math's ( Where did you get billions ?? ), factor in reducing the risk as the $$ amounts get scarier and I'm looking at 6months to get to 20K which is my target, BUT allowing for work load if I manage 5 trades per week it will be a miracle, looking at 12months realistically.

Max I can go upto is about, $20 per pip with the account I've got, do that with a 20K account is the goal, so $400 SL with a 20pip SL, so risk drops to 2%.

So $400 profit * 6 ( allowing for 2 losers and 10 trades ) = $2400 * 4 = $9600 per month, so without drawings that would take me, 102 Months, or 8.6 years.


Therefore 1Mil is pretty much impossible!!


See Basic Logic, but so so many just won't get it. %%'s don't go on for ever, there are other issues!!


If you can keep on open mind, you should definately learn something, lets see if you can, I bet NOT!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,570
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:40am Jan 11, 2014 7:40am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I`m sorry i`m busy now with my own EA, but if i finish i might join you, but just to give you 1 time, dont bother news trading, news on the spot can only be traded if you have a true ECN with no or type spread, probably one which substracts comissions rather than spread, and a lightning execution speed. Any good broker which has that properties requires a bigger deposit than the small ones, so its really up to you if you'd want to risk that , and also note that even the best broker can lagg at news times. So until you build up a pile of...

More presumptions!!

You realise, unless your trading huge volumes the Spread + Commision Brokers aren't actually much of a saving for starters!!

Wait 5mins for the news to settle, the spreads to settle then News it tradeable on any account, just because your trading the news doesn't mean your 1 of the people that makes the market spike 100pips and you need to get in at the bottom, you'll never be able to do that, no body gets in at the bottom, it's not moved by volume, which you still don't get.

Then explaining MM to someone the simplest part of trading, isn't that kinda like teaching your nan to suck eggs, ie pointless.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,571
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:42am Jan 11, 2014 7:42am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Please start adding 1 to all of your "expectancy" figures, unless you really do mean that the expectancy is losing money. If I put in 1 dollar, and get back 60 cents, I lost 40 cents. If I put in 1 dollar, and get back $1.60, I gained 60 cents.
expectancy measures the average gain, the only way it can be negative if the value is a "-"
you get 60 cent in profit ,what i meant, but whatever a minor mistake
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,572
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:45am Jan 11, 2014 7:45am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} you get 60 cent in profit ,what i meant, but whatever a minor mistake

Risking 1 gets you 1.6 back!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,573
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:57am Jan 11, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Turveyd
no body gets in at the bottom
You was saying?

Caught a 90+ pip move trading NFP yesterday by getting in at the bottom
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  • #1,574
  • Jan 11, 2014 7:59am Jan 11, 2014 7:59am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Risking 1 gets you 1.6 back!
Yes, but on average, not always

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Okay, only been on his method for 4 weeks, 3 month since the start, I'm approx +40% over that time, with 30trades maybe, but method's improved over that time. currently risking 3% say, 4 up, 1 down, so 3 positive trades in every 5, 9%, think 10trades per week, so +18% per week without getting to picky. $500 start value. 6months time I expect to be at 37K based on those math's ( Where did you get billions ?? ), factor in reducing the risk as the $$ amounts get scarier and I'm looking at 6months to get to 20K which is my target, BUT allowing...
Ok then, i`m sorry i always compare other people to my trades, a bad habit

I have around 30-50 trades/day, the fact that you only have 5 trade /week is different.Of course with few trades its harder to get 1 billion.

However you would win 8 trades out of 10, which is 4 out of 5.

Now if you suppose that you get 18% /week, which is cool, a month has on average 4.34 weeks, so if you trade for only 3 months, then you should had 13 times to increase your account by 18%, with 500$ start, thats roughly 4300$, not bad

However if you keep moving at this pace, assuming that you have now around 4300, by the end of the year including january, you would have 4.34* 11 + 3 weeks from january, thats ~51 weeks, so 51x you can get the 18% increase.

So from 4300$ by the end of december you should have 19,927,408.70$ , good luck
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,575
  • Jan 11, 2014 10:52am Jan 11, 2014 10:52am
Btw you guys were saying stuff about inter-currency correlations, and i was mentioning a few points about the Dollar Index and what impact it has on the EUR/USD & GBP/USD

I opened a new thread to discuss the relations between the Dollar Index & the EUR/USD, and try to predict the EUR/USD by using the Dollar Index and other correlations, so anyone is welcome on my thread.

I made also indicators which calculate the USDX and the inverted USDX, so feel free to visit me, but no trolls please:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=466143
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,576
  • Edited 5:57pm Jan 11, 2014 5:45pm | Edited 5:57pm
Quoting Turveyd
I once considered a complete EA with news times and every real rule under the sun, but the logic especially through mt3 at the time, gets so complex it becomes a nightmare. And I'm a solo System programmer anaylst who develops bespoke software to run huge companys, and thinks nothing of 10,000 lines of code. So good luck with that project and no I'm not helping, I have more than enough coding to do. Also GJ didn't have a huge move recently, for those kinda returns, you must be trading seriously out of the money calls, huge risk.
Who said the logic has to be complex? I am building the holy grail EA and have so many ideas that function off of the premise that "simple is better", and I am certain that this is the correct approach to take, and I'm already starting to see some very promising results.

A good EA can be developed with much less than 10,000 lines of code, and that's fine, I guess I will be doing it all by myself.

And you are correct that GJ didn't have a huge move recently (although on Friday it did run 130+ pips, which is pretty significant), but your basic assumption is wrong. I did not trade very out of the money calls... not once. I trade the first call that is out of the money which gives me about a 50/50 chance of winning, and if I am right I can potentially double my money. With this approach, I can still double my money if the market moves just 2 pips in my direction (provided that you have a good entry), so a significant move is absolutely not required. It's all about how you manage the trade and the degree of confidence you have in it. If and when my analysis tells me that a significant move can be expected, I can very realistically double, triple, quadruple, or quintuple my money. If the opposite is true, I will only trade in the money options, which give you pure delta. Either way, you can make money whether the market moves 1 pip or 100 pips. Why do I get the feeling you have never traded binaries before, otherwise you would know this stuff.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,577
  • Jan 11, 2014 5:53pm Jan 11, 2014 5:53pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Who said the logic has to be complex? I am building the holy grail EA and have so many ideas that function off of the premise that "simple is better", and I am certain that this is the correct approach to take, and I'm already starting to see some very promising results. A good EA can be developed with much less than 10,000 lines of code, and that's fine, I guess I will be doing it all by myself. And you are correct that GJ didn't have a huge move recently (although on Friday it did run 130+ pips, which is pretty significant), but your basic...

Ahhhh Binaries, you didn't say that, I had a quick dabble wasted £20 or something, I thought you meant proper options trading.

Definately not for me, crazy comes to mind, GDR was doing well, but they started lowering the pay outs as his account went up compared to what I had on the screen, that was William Hill!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,578
  • Edited 6:07pm Jan 11, 2014 5:55pm | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting Proximus
I`m sorry i`m busy now with my own EA, but if i finish i might join you, but just to give you 1 time, dont bother news trading, news on the spot can only be traded if you have a true ECN with no or type spread, probably one which substracts comissions rather than spread, and a lightning execution speed. Any good broker which has that properties requires a bigger deposit than the small ones, so its really up to you if you'd want to risk that , and also note that even the best broker can lagg at news times. So until you build up a pile of cash, its...
You're not telling me anything I already don't know.

And I believe you are wrong about the news. The news merely acts as a trigger for the start of a move. You can absolutely trade news successfully, even with a bad broker with a 4-5 pip spread such as mine, but you need to start trading before the news is actually released otherwise, more times than not, you'll get a bad entry into the trade.

From my experience and observations, it is clear to me that while the news itself cannot be predicted, the market's reaction to the news can be, and it's all in the charts (technicals). Learn to interpret the charts correctly and it will come second-nature to you. But do not tell me that news can't be traded because I've already figured out ways that it can be... successfully and profitably. But like I said, it will be coded into the EA last.

Also, I try to avoid trading around the news as much as I possibly can (I don't like news trading)... but with an EA that trades 24/7 around the clock, it's a bit of a different story, as I don't think it can be avoided entirely.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,579
  • Jan 11, 2014 6:02pm Jan 11, 2014 6:02pm
Quoting Turveyd
Ahhhh Binaries, you didn't say that, I had a quick dabble wasted £20 or something, I thought you meant proper options trading. Definately not for me, crazy comes to mind, GDR was doing well, but they started lowering the pay outs as his account went up compared to what I had on the screen, that was William Hill!!
I thought you were the king of 1-minute scalping? Binaries should be right up your alley. There's nothing else like 'em!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,580
  • Jan 11, 2014 6:47pm Jan 11, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} You're not telling me anything I already don't know. And I believe you are wrong about the news. The news merely acts as a trigger for the start of a move. You can absolutely trade news successfully, even with a bad broker with a 4-5 pip spread such as mine, but you need to start trading before the news is actually released otherwise, more times than not, you'll get a bad entry into the trade. From my experience and observations, it is clear to me that while the news itself cannot be predicted, the market's reaction to the news can be, and...
Ok, but i was thinking about news trading on the spot, if you enter before the news, its just blind-trading, no edge or momentum there...

As for the news EA problem, its simple, just use manual intervention, use the FF Calendar and either use that DLL which links the EA with the FF calendar and disable the trade automatically, or use manual disabling, your choice.

Quote
I thought you were the king of 1-minute scalping? Binaries should be right up your alley. There's nothing else like 'em!

Binaries are gambling

Because you cannot resize your RR as you see fit, you get a fixed reward when winning, and a fixed loss when losing, the only thing you can do is to improve your winrate.And since RR is predetermined, i`m sure the binary brokers are like the house at the casinos, the odds are always in their favor since they have to pay the winner.

Its just not worth it, the reason why i started trading was binaries, but then i got very upset and disapointed in them, the only thing binary people do is martingale themselves until they lose all their cash

So, since we discussed the martingale already in another long thread, i can assume that binaries are not worth it.Normal option trading may be good, but not binary options.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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