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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,481
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:55pm Jan 10, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} See Turv? This is why you are a troll. And, as far as your money goes, you would lose it again, just as you always have. I am not the one who cannot be bothered to put up a TE. See how silly you sound?

Your right, I should play it safe and just trade Demo like you and your mates!!

I've posted my trades live, your turn!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,482
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:01pm Jan 10, 2014 4:01pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I`m sorry thats just how FX is, its way more objective and mechanical than the stocks

Have you ever traded stock's ??

I've done both and I'd say Stocks are the oppossite, much easier, but you need a lot more money to make it worth while, so Forex it is for me!!



Stocks have a news release every 3months in general, yes they get dragged around by the market, but generally hold there trends for weeks if not months.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,483
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:10pm Jan 10, 2014 4:10pm
And no doubt today is nfp day if I remember. How many people would of made pips and are now experts. I was smashed to pieces with one of my last nfp trades lol. But I still thank SP for putting me onto it. Must dash one is at coast waiting for a dinghy
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,484
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:17pm Jan 10, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Can you sum this up? lol
Heh.

The TLDR of my TLDR is: EMH is an outdated academic theory from the 70s that, while initially very popular, quickly lost favor among actual market participants in the real world, and has slowly been dismantled by newer theories from the 90s and 00s which reflect actual market reality. There is very little real-world evidence that markets are efficient; that does not mean it is easy to benefit from the inefficiency, but that it most assuredly can be done.

Quoting Proximus
The FX market is made up of only a small percentage of speculators, since the instrument of the FX is the currency that all people have, then any transaction where someone or something exchanges money could be classified as a trade.Not necessarly all speculators. By speculators i mean people who make profit from markets: retail traders,investment banks, investment funds, similar...
What's your basis for this statement? Depending on your definition of 'speculative,' the vast majority (90%+) of FX volume could be considered speculative. I believe only about 10% of FX volume in the major currencies consists of banks facilitating actual commercial activity, and I'd definitely consider something like hedging speculative.
  • #1,485
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:20pm Jan 10, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Have you ever traded stock's ?? I've done both and I'd say Stocks are the oppossite, much easier, but you need a lot more money to make it worth while, so Forex it is for me!! Stocks have a news release every 3months in general, yes they get dragged around by the market, but generally hold there trends for weeks if not months.
I didnt but i analysed many big stocks, i have a bit of stock database on lower timeframes, and what i can tell you its completely different than forex, it even less random, its very predictable, stocks are more susceptible to any news or bubble than any currency.

Stocks are real time traded, and only by traders, not by other participants, so if you see a downtrend in stocks, it could signal a bankruptcy rather than a retracement

Trends in stocks have diff meaning, i dont have much interest in them because as hard as they can be predicted, they are much riskier and not that practical and liquid.

So FX is way more practical for me, but its harder to trade unfortunately

But when i will crack the EUR/USD market, and find the ultimate system, it will be worth it, it would be much better than any stock trading method that Buffet or the others could think of.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,486
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:23pm Jan 10, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Your right, I should play it safe and just trade Demo like you and your mates!! I've posted my trades live, your turn!!
Posting a "live" trade consists of posting a time stamped entry BEFORE u exit a trade. Again, a TE will solve all this talk.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,487
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:32pm Jan 10, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I didnt but i analysed many big stocks, i have a bit of stock database on lower timeframes, and what i can tell you its completely different than forex, it even less random, its very predictable, stocks are more susceptible to any news or bubble than any currency. Stocks are real time traded, and only by traders, not by other participants, so if you see a downtrend in stocks, it could signal a bankruptcy rather than a retracement Trends in stocks have diff meaning, i dont have much interest in them because as hard as they can be predicted,...

The big stocks, MSFT and the like pretty much just follow the Nasdaq or the Nasdaq is them I guess, but if you go for mid volume stocks, they go there own way more.

It's about sectors, If nasdaq is bullish, then find a bullish sector then trade long bullish stocks from that sector, and put 1/3rd of your money on shorts in bearish sectors so if you get a big down day they'll do better than the Longs get slapped.

Stocks are full time though, all the after hours research which is required every night, 100's of charts to check and make notes on, to find your next play.


I don't miss the time spent!!

GBPAUD is where it's at, less american's dragging it around, check some charts over the weekend!! a lot more 24/7 aswell as the A part is open all night here.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,488
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:35pm Jan 10, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Posting a "live" trade consists of posting a time stamped entry BEFORE u exit a trade. Again, a TE will solve all this talk.

Again, FXCM not supported via TE wish it was, I did check they don't support FXCM recently still.

And again, your asking for that while not providing 1 bit of evidence anywhere that you actually trade at all and from everything I've read, you really haven't got a clue about anything trading related.

Why is this ??



And I barely get time to trade, not doubling up my work messing with a mt4 demo account to post trades!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,489
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:44pm Jan 10, 2014 4:44pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Again, FXCM not supported via TE wish it was,
uh huh....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fxcm.png Size: 44 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,490
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:02pm Jan 10, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} uh huh.... {image}

Sweet!


Thanks!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,491
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:12pm Jan 10, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Again, FXCM not supported via TE wish it was, I did check they don't support FXCM recently still. And again, your asking for that while not providing 1 bit of evidence anywhere that you actually trade at all and from everything I've read, you really haven't got a clue about anything trading related. Why is this ?? And I barely get time to trade, not doubling up my work messing with a mt4 demo account to post trades!
As you type this bull, people can see that I have a TE linked to a LIVE account. And Magix has just caught you in yet another lie. C'mon Turv, just admit that you are afraid of any kind of stats.

Just come clean!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,492
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:13pm Jan 10, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Sweet! Thanks!
Finally, let's see your 80% win rate, shut us all up!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,493
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:26pm Jan 10, 2014 5:26pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Finally, let's see your 80% win rate, shut us all up!
Winrate not accompanied by RR is meaningless.Its like buying a car or a house without the key.

I can set you up a system in 5 min which will give you 80% winrate, by having an inbalanced RR, does that mean the expectancy will be positive ?

Hell no, but you only asked for a winrate, so there you go, you have your nice winrate.

BTW , not for picking on you, but i just observed that earlier today your TE showed 2% return, but now suddently down to 1.4 in a few hours, how come?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,494
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:31pm Jan 10, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Finally, let's see your 80% win rate, shut us all up!

You open a TE since I last checked interesting.

More interesting you claim you don't take losses, but you have losses and are currently losing money.

Accounts been open for 1 month also,so newbie confirmed.


Thanks, makes my week
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,495
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:36pm Jan 10, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Winrate not accompanied by RR is meaningless.Its like buying a car or a house without the key. I can set you up a system in 5 min which will give you 80% winrate, by having an inbalanced RR, does that mean the expectancy will be positive ? Hell no, but you only asked for a winrate, so there you go, you have your nice winrate. BTW , not for picking on you, but i just observed that earlier today your TE showed 2% return, but now suddently down to 1.4 in a few hours, how come?

He wants me to prove my 80% win rate, sadly I will fail there it's more 85% lol

I'm R:R wise about 1:1 on average, a bit trigger happy, shouild get 1:1.5 area on average, likely take a slight win rate hit, so spot on 80%.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,496
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:45pm Jan 10, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Winrate not accompanied by RR is meaningless.Its like buying a car or a house without the key. I can set you up a system in 5 min which will give you 80% winrate, by having an inbalanced RR, does that mean the expectancy will be positive ? Hell no, but you only asked for a winrate, so there you go, you have your nice winrate. BTW , not for picking on you, but i just observed that earlier today your TE showed 2% return, but now suddently down to 1.4 in a few hours, how come?
Pullback in my short positions. I have 7 open shorts.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,497
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:46pm Jan 10, 2014 5:46pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} He wants me to prove my 80% win rate, sadly I will fail there it's more 85% lol I'm R:R wise about 1:1 on average, a bit trigger happy, shouild get 1:1.5 area on average, likely take a slight win rate hit, so spot on 80%.
Hmm, then your claims are really interesting, i pretty much believe 80% winrate with 1:1 RR is impossible.The best edge which i can even think to be feasable is a 5-10% over the coin flip , so a 55-60% winrate with a 1:1 at tops, due to the uncertainty and random periods of the market, yet you claim to have 80%... hmm no offense friend, but either you lie or you are the best trader on the planet and already a billionaire ...

Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Pullback in my short positions. I have 7 open shorts.
Hmm ok, good luck next week with the rest of them.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,498
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:49pm Jan 10, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You open a TE since I last checked interesting. More interesting you claim you don't take losses, but you have losses and are currently losing money. Accounts been open for 1 month also,so newbie confirmed. Thanks, makes my week
Clearly, yet again you show your ignorance. Opening a TE on a specific account does not make one a newbie. And you are correct, if I close all of positions right now, I would have a net loss. That is a normal function trade management.

Now, are you going prove that you actually trade, or are going to keep on talking. Magix is generating stats, I am generating stats. YOU are running your mouth.

Why? Because after seven years, you still do not know what you are doing.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,499
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:54pm Jan 10, 2014 5:54pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hmm, then your claims are really interesting, i pretty much believe 80% winrate with 1:1 RR is impossible.The best edge which i can even think to be feasable is a 5-10% over the coin flip , so a 55-60% winrate with a 1:1 at tops, due to the uncertainty and random periods of the market, yet you claim to have 80%... hmm no offense friend, but either you lie or you are the best trader on the planet and already a billionaire ... {quote} Hmm ok, good luck next week with the rest of them.
That's why you should be paying more attention to me and ignoring the guru's which are trying so so so so hard to discredit me, that would eat into there selling services on the side business, don't you think.



Why else are they SO SO SO SO set against me!!

* p.s. it's took years of hard graft to get there, only been a few months from version 1 of the method and still going to take ages at the time I get free to trade and my tiny account to get to 20K obviously I'm perfected V1 since, millions are sadly not possible!!

That's why I encourage you to keep trying new things and learning and not listening to the negative types, which just want you to pay for there services.

LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,500
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:55pm Jan 10, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hmm, then your claims are really interesting, i pretty much believe 80% winrate with 1:1 RR is impossible.The best edge which i can even think to be feasable is a 5-10% over the coin flip , so a 55-60% winrate with a 1:1 at tops, due to the uncertainty and random periods of the market, yet you claim to have 80%... hmm no offense friend, but either you lie or you are the best trader on the planet and already a billionaire ... {quote} Hmm ok, good luck next week with the rest of them.

Thing is Prox, this guy has been told how to open a TE, and myfxbook supports his broker. He pretends that he is too busy, but does not have the fundamentals of keeping a clean trading house understood. So yes, he lies.

I have already started building some longs because of price movement. But during retraces it is normal to go negative for a while until the market decides what it wants to do. EURUSD has done just over half of its average monthly range, so we should see something good here soon I hope.

Have you put together some rules for trading your U pattern yet?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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