Long term fundamental trading | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Long term fundamental traders: risk, stops, etc 10 replies

Why Trading Forex is So Difficult - Long Term vs. Short Term 84 replies

The long term trader using fundamental Analysis (In B4 Clive) 13 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Long term fundamental effects? 0 replies

Attachments: Long term fundamental trading
Exit Attachments

Long term fundamental trading

  • #21
  • Nov 23, 2012 1:54am Nov 23, 2012 1:54am
While the Aussie interest rates may drop the next month.
It should cause the AUD to weaken, however AUD is in a unique position that its one of the only countries with an interest rate above 1% so makes it attractive for the interest earnings.
Im surprised its at the level it is right now actually.
  • #22
  • Edited 7:01pm Jan 10, 2014 4:25pm | Edited 7:01pm
I hope everyone made money by shorting the aussie. If not it might not be too late. They have rising unemployment, falling interest rates, falling inflation, falling GDP growth and they also have a current account deficit. I don't see any good reasons to buy the australien dollar so I have just sold AUD/USD. I think AUD/USD is a good pair to sell because I expect the american dollar to strenghten if the FED continues to taper their stimulus.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unemployment.png Size: 19 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Interest rate.png Size: 21 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Inflation.png Size: 23 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GDP.png Size: 27 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Current account.png Size: 28 KB
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #23
  • Edited Jan 11, 2014 8:18am Jan 10, 2014 10:36pm | Edited Jan 11, 2014 8:18am
Quoting Gambler180
I hope everyone made money by shorting the aussie. If not it might not be too late. They have rising unemployment, falling interest rates, falling inflation, falling GDP growth and they also have a current account deficit. I don't see any good reasons to buy the australien dollar so I have just sold AUD/USD. I think AUD/USD is a good pair to sell because I expect the american dollar to strenghten if the FED continues to taper their stimulus. {image} {image} {image}{image}{image}
Hi Gambler180,

What is the source of these charts? Thanks in advance.

Regards,
vox

EDIT:
Found it. Happens I had it bookmarked.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #24
  • May 22, 2014 1:34am May 22, 2014 1:34am
If anyone is interested on a detailed fundamental analysis for EUR/CHF and other CHF/crosses this article might help to position in the market for the next 6 months: http://www.forex-galaxy.com/2014/05/...eaker-chf.html
Buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying !
  • #25
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:47am Nov 21, 2014 2:47am
I haven't been interested in forex trading for the past many months but I'm curious. Did anyone make money by shorting AUD/USD
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #26
  • Feb 15, 2015 4:37pm Feb 15, 2015 4:37pm
Take a look at the monthly and weekly AUD/USD charts. The australian dollar has fallen more than 20 % in value. With leverage people could have earned a fortune! Why would you try to earn a few pips every day when you can look at the fundamentals, build an equity millipede and earn a gazillion dollars?
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #27
  • Feb 15, 2015 4:50pm Feb 15, 2015 4:50pm
To me, fundamentals can be very useful for traders that leaves a trade floating for a very much number of days, I believed fundamental is not a good option for scalpers and day time traders
  • #28
  • Feb 15, 2015 4:51pm Feb 15, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting arenoosh
If anyone is interested on a detailed fundamental analysis for EUR/CHF and other CHF/crosses this article might help to position in the market for the next 6 months: http://www.forex-galaxy.com/2014/05/...eaker-chf.html
Awesome
  • #29
  • Edited 5:50pm Feb 15, 2015 5:31pm | Edited 5:50pm
Quoting oladinpeter
To me, fundamentals can be very useful for traders that leaves a trade floating for a very much number of days, I believed fundamental is not a good option for scalpers and day time traders
But why would you be a scalper? I think it's good that scalpers usually have a small stop loss, but I would let my winners run. I have not paid much attention to the markets for the past year or so, but if I had been trading I'm quite sure that I would have been able to at least double my account just by shorting AUD/USD. I'm quite sure that people using the millipede strategy have earned a fortune on this pair. Or at least they could have.
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #30
  • Feb 16, 2015 11:12am Feb 16, 2015 11:12am
In Forex trading, when we talk of long-term fundamental trading, the picture is different from the time frames involved in investing in stocks and bonds. in currency trading, six months is such a long time to hold on to a position. However, there are a few who look at the big picture, and that's why trading charts have monthly trading periods represented by one candle. This allows traders to establish their trading strategies on a long-term perspective, with some closing positions after years. In such cases, traders make a great deal of using fundamental analysis with technical analysis barely coming into play.
  • #31
  • Feb 18, 2015 3:18am Feb 18, 2015 3:18am
Quoting Gambler180
I'm quite sure that people using the millipede strategy have earned a fortune on this pair. Or at least they could have.
I have long term millipede strategies running in the background all the time - I've done ok with AUD recently, but JPY and EUR shorts have paid better.

With AUD, over the last year I have done better selling on spikes v a variety of fundamentally stronger currencies.... USD, GBP and NZD.

AUD doesn't seem to trend as cleanly on long term fundamental shifts as the heavier traded currencies so millipede strategies seem to be less effective (at least for me)..... waiting for a decent pullback, then entering as price turns back to the larger trend seems to be the way to go
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #32
  • Feb 19, 2015 10:52am Feb 19, 2015 10:52am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I have long term millipede strategies running in the background all the time - I've done ok with AUD recently, but JPY and EUR shorts have paid better. With AUD, over the last year I have done better selling on spikes v a variety of fundamentally stronger currencies.... USD, GBP and NZD. AUD doesn't seem to trend as cleanly on long term fundamental shifts as the heavier traded currencies so millipede strategies seem to be less effective (at least for me)..... waiting for a decent pullback, then entering as price turns back to the larger...
Catalysts to profiting with Millipede Strategy.

 

  1. High Volatility
  2. High Volume Trading
  3. Liquidity

This makes GBP/USD, FTSE 100, USD/JPY and Crude Oil the bets instruments for Millipede Trading strategy.

  • #33
  • Jan 16, 2017 10:06am Jan 16, 2017 10:06am
USD/ISK is undervalued compared to purchasing power parity. Part of the reason might be that the interest rate in Iceland is very high and they have low inflation which means that the real interest rate is high, but the interest rate has been cut twice in 2016. I have no idea how the outlook is for 2017 but it might be time to look for buying opportunities. When Australia began cutting interest rates the Australian dollar collapsed but the situation in Iceland might be different.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 235 KB
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #34
  • Jan 16, 2017 10:40am Jan 16, 2017 10:40am
AUD/CAD is about 13 % overvalued compared to purchasing power parity and the recent OPEC deal to cut oil production might be good for the loonie.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 234 KB
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
  • #35
  • Last Post: Jan 16, 2017 1:00pm Jan 16, 2017 1:00pm
EUR/USD is about 21 % undervalued, probably due to QE in Europe and rising rates in USA. I think the pair has further to fall before rising again. I have read that the pair could hit 0.90 in 2017 but scotiabank believes that the pair will rise to 1.10 in Q4. I'm bearish on the pair but waiting for some kind of catalyst that could cause the euro to rise or the dollar to fall.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 233 KB
If slaughterhouses had glass walls, everyone would be a vegetarian!
0 traders viewing now