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vsa with Malcolm

  • #25,141
  • Jan 2, 2014 10:17pm Jan 2, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} I'm not suggesting anything ... but read MTM

naughty devil LOL
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,142
  • Edited 10:29pm Jan 2, 2014 10:18pm | Edited 10:29pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
It appears to me on this thread that a lot of emphasis is being placed on single bars or bar by bar analysis to look for a trade entry. This type of analysis will kill your account. The background of the chart must be telling you the reason you are entering and whether or not we have just completed or have entered a period of distribution or accumulation. Speaking from experience it wasn't util I really started to wrap my head around Wykoff principles on this that I was able to make certain leaps in my trading.
Wow such a short post and you have everyone scrambling off for Wykoff books, hopefully they realize there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Okay lets start out with getting out heads straight.. This is more for me than you, as I was getting bad about not being picky with my trades, two or three trades a week will provide a nice return.

Second, and it took me a few years to figure this out, specializing in a pair doesn't make sense. If VSA applies to Forex/Stocks/Futures then specializing in a pair to learn its habits doesn't make sense for how I trade. But specializing in a time frame does makes sense, due to TFs are different on how they react. So for this explanation on background, I am going to show what I am strongest at which is the 15m. When trading the 15m, using 1h/4h as my background/guide to what I am looking for, 15m is basically for entries and to see warning signs of not to enter the trade.

First our 4h chart of EJ..

Starting with an 89 EMA, the red line shows me that I am only interested in long positions, it also shows me that I am in a trend.

I watch 7 pairs for my 15m trades, basically at the beginning of the day I will look at all 7 pairs and see what I am most interested in, which I am looking for the pairs that are trending the strongest and which show signs of strength in an up trend or weakness in a downtrend. Usually I am left with 2 or 3 pairs to watch for the day, which on a 15m is manageable.
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  • #25,143
  • Edited 10:35pm Jan 2, 2014 10:23pm | Edited 10:35pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} First our 4h chart of EJ..
Now on to the 1h.

I like to line up the trend on my 1h to the 4h, and if I see an SOW on my 1h, I will wait till I see SOS before entering on the 15m.
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  • #25,144
  • Jan 2, 2014 10:27pm Jan 2, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Now on to the 1h.
By the time I get to the 15m, its easy breezy wait for a NS/Test in an up trend, in this case.
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  • #25,145
  • Jan 2, 2014 10:51pm Jan 2, 2014 10:51pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Now on to the 1h. I like to line up the trend on my 1h to the 4h, and if I see an SOW on my 1h, I will wait till I see SOS before entering on the 15m. {image}
Lets take a look at some recent activity..

First the red bar, its very high volume, but is this bar weak or strong? Honestly its weak, but I will come back to this. But with 4h trending up, I marking off the high and waiting till a few closes above the high I can consider the market as still strong, which on December 25th the market did push up.

Now we have the yellow bar I marked off, volume isn't all that high but the spread should have raised flags, and notice price never broke above the high of this bar. Going back to the red bar, this was a sell off, market drifted up higher probably due to holidays and trend, but the yellow bar to me is indicating that the red bar was selling.
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  • #25,146
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:26am Jan 3, 2014 4:26am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Lets take a look at some recent activity.. First the red bar, its very high volume, but is this bar weak or strong? Honestly its weak, but I will come back to this. But with 4h trending up, I marking off the high and waiting till a few closes above the high I can consider the market as still strong, which on December 25th the market did push up. Now we have the yellow bar I marked off, volume isn't all that high but the spread should have raised flags, and notice price never broke above the high of this bar. Going back to the red bar, this...
I think this is a good example of reading the background.

The red bar with uhv is not an enough reason to go short, since the pair is in an uptrend. If one did not take the uptrend into consideration, many ND bars would mislead us to go short.

Is there any reason to go long after the uhv red bar ? For example , after pushing up the high of the uhv red bar, would a NS
motivate you to enter a long ?

Is this bar a buying climax , giving the first signs for uptrend is near to its end?

When would you start looking for going short ?

P.s: Do you see how the urge unconsiously tempting to pick the top ? This is an incredible bad hsbit
  • #25,147
  • Jan 3, 2014 5:42am Jan 3, 2014 5:42am
Quoting Trappist
{quote} Is there any reason to go long after the uhv red bar ?
The reason is why I marked off the high of the bar, at the time of the red bar printing I doubt I would have been sure on whether or not the red bar was strong. On December 24th, you have 4 bars that close above the high of this bar, I would be looking for NS/Test above the high of the red bar after seeing those bars.

Quoting Trappist
{quote} P.s: Do you see how the urge unconsiously tempting to pick the top ? This is an incredible bad hsbit
I suppose I am subconsciously picking a top here, but its just the way I see things. First, with my newly implemented 4h, I wouldn't consider any short positions until it has turned. Secondly, I don't want to be long here until the high of the yellow bar has been broken. So for me EJ is in a no trade zone, which is why I mentioned I don't agree with specializing in pairs.

Right now I think there are better opportunities on UCHF, 4h I see a 2 bar, nice spread and a fresh change of trend.

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But, its not quite ready yet, yesterday some potential weakness came in during US, just waiting to see if the market can push up and past the top, and maybe find a 15m long Monday or Tuesday.

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  • #25,148
  • Jan 3, 2014 9:52am Jan 3, 2014 9:52am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Second, and it took me a few years to figure this out, specializing in a pair doesn't make sense. If VSA applies to Forex/Stocks/Futures then specializing in a pair to learn its habits doesn't make sense for how I trade.
Every pair is different and moves differently. Some of them move faster, some slower. If you are just finding out what suits you best - faster pairs, slower pairs, which time frame and so on ... then one should just stick to one pair at the time. But people are different ... I tried to trade many pairs when learning VSA, wasn't for me. GU is my bitch like oil is Jason's bitch
  • #25,149
  • Jan 3, 2014 9:53am Jan 3, 2014 9:53am
Quoting Connected
{quote} naughty devil LOL
Yeah, but he killed my joke Way toooooo serious.
  • #25,150
  • Edited Jan 4, 2014 9:14am Jan 3, 2014 10:37am | Edited Jan 4, 2014 9:14am
Nice analysis and explanation summary thanks SimpleDev, was wondering about pairs and if there is one or two pairs that could be specifically designated as being a very technical volume pair, ie. a pair most suited to volume spread analysis? I read somewhere that the Japanese yen pairs are very technically orientated and wondered whether you experienced guys would care to comment on a pair(s) that would lend itself to being the best pair to trade for VSA? If in fact this is even possible to designate a pair best for VSA, this could be interesting?

Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} The reason is why I marked off the high of the bar, at the time of the red bar printing I doubt I would have been sure on whether or not the red bar was strong. On December 24th, you have 4 bars that close above the high of this bar, I would be looking for NS/Test above the high of the red bar after seeing those bars. {quote} I suppose I am subconsciously picking a top here, but its just the way I see things. First, with my newly implemented 4h, I wouldn't consider any short positions until it has turned. Secondly, I don't want to be long...
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,151
  • Jan 4, 2014 9:18am Jan 4, 2014 9:18am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Every pair is different and moves differently. Some of them move faster, some slower. If you are just finding out what suits you best - faster pairs, slower pairs, which time frame and so on ... then one should just stick to one pair at the time. But people are different ... I tried to trade many pairs when learning VSA, wasn't for me. GU is my bitch like oil is Jason's bitch
I find GU a little frightening at times, makes me nervous when it rolls out those huge moves. I haven't tried the VSA methods with this pair though, you have inspired me to start tracking the beast come Monday. Usually I stick to just EU and monitor 4 different time frames, during the testing period it seems to work very well with VSA so far.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,152
  • Jan 4, 2014 11:36am Jan 4, 2014 11:36am
Quoting Connected
{quote} I find GU a little frightening at times, makes me nervous when it rolls out those huge moves. I haven't tried the VSA methods with this pair though, you have inspired me to start tracking the beast come Monday. Usually I stick to just EU and monitor 4 different time frames, during the testing period it seems to work very well with VSA so far.
If it's going good with EU then just stick to it.
  • #25,153
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:58am Jan 9, 2014 5:58am
Watching GU today, which I am bullish. Its a few minutes before the big news..

4h..

Finding demand at the bottom of the 4h channel, but I wouldnt be surprised to see price test .64 again.
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1h..

Potential demand with a trend change
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15m..

A bit of strength from yesterday, definitely wait for all of the excitement to pass, but I wouldnt say no to a test in a rising market from here.
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  • #25,154
  • Jan 9, 2014 7:13am Jan 9, 2014 7:13am
Quoting SimpleDev
Watching GU today, which I am bullish.
Yup, let's see how it goes.
  • #25,155
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:04am Jan 9, 2014 8:04am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} Yup, let's see how it goes.
I'm going out on a limb and guessing that it should go either up or down.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,156
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:42pm Jan 9, 2014 11:42pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} I'm going out on a limb and guessing that it should go either up or down.
Way to show your unbias-ism.
  • #25,157
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:56am Jan 10, 2014 2:56am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I'm going out on a limb and guessing that it should go either up or down.
I got my pips from long. Not much though
  • #25,158
  • Jan 10, 2014 3:21am Jan 10, 2014 3:21am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} I got my pips from long. Not much though



Just curious, if you hold positions during NFP?

I still don't trade NFP days.
  • #25,159
  • Edited 9:12am Jan 10, 2014 3:46am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Just curious, if you hold positions during NFP? I still don't trade NFP days.
If I have longer term trades on, then I do.

Not when day trading. Avoiding bigger news and just waiting when dust is settled and I can recognize clear direction. Lately I'm closing all day positions at the end of trading day (no swinging ) - win or loss, I just close them.

Edit: 80+ pips from GU on NFP day. Not the best trades I've taken but profit nevertheless.
  • #25,160
  • Jan 10, 2014 9:59am Jan 10, 2014 9:59am
Dear friends, who share the MT4 HLC Bar indicator? Thank you!
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