why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 73 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,441
  • Jan 9, 2014 9:52pm Jan 9, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Wrong, again. I am not mad. Why would I be after putting on a trade for 1,800% and as much as 3,500% by the end of this week. I don't care if you're not impressed, because I am happy with it. And it is improper to ask me what have I explained and therefore place the blame back on me. I could very well do the same thing and ask you, what have YOU explained? I have explained things here, and you should probably start by actually READING people's posts since you admit that you rarely do. {quote} I think you are the one that is trolling and...

tl;dr
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,442
  • Jan 9, 2014 9:58pm Jan 9, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} You actually sound smarter when you are trolling... Fuck... Give up, already.
Its a mirror man ..
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #1,443
  • Jan 9, 2014 10:06pm Jan 9, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} Its a mirror man ..

I have no information on this, WW.

I've never seen you talk trading.

But they say admitting it is half the battle.

Good luck with the rest!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,444
  • Jan 9, 2014 10:10pm Jan 9, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I have no information on this, WW. I've never seen you talk trading. But they say admitting it is half the battle. Good luck with the rest!
Tshhh
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #1,445
  • Jan 9, 2014 10:13pm Jan 9, 2014 10:13pm
Quoting Magix
tl;dr
shows how ignorant you are and in denial
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,446
  • Jan 9, 2014 10:53pm Jan 9, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote}"Trading Regime Analysis: The Probability of Volatility," which does not dictate how to trade or provide any trading systems, but instead focuses solely on analyzing what condition the market is in (trends, pause, correction, etc.)-- really great book imo. But anyways, somewhere in it he surmises that discretionary human traders currently beat quant systems and likely will continue to for a long, long time, because markets are so complex that there are simply too many constantly changing variables to ever explicitly write rules for, while...
I'll be sure to look up the book. Another interesting tidbit is that just about every Quant fund blows at some point, sure they make money for years and the smart ones pull money out and invest in other areas, because the smart ones know the Quant systems die horrible deaths.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #1,447
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:31pm Jan 9, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting jmn5611
Did you predict price? What is your definition of a prediction? How do you know you didn't just hit a homerun? Do you have TE linked up to this account? There's a start. The reason for these questions is to get a baseline on finding non-randomness in the market environment in both price AND time.
Hey jmn, thanks for the questions and sorry for the delayed response. I didn't see your message until just a few hours ago, and I'd still like to respond to it, since I said I would.

I do think that I predicted the price(s), at least for the most part. I mean, that's what trading is. Traders predict prices all the time. Of course, not every trade is going to be right, but it's our job to manage our money well and it is actually the money management process that is more significant that the win ratio or number of pips or anything like that. That is what I have learned over the years.

With that said, I am a very aggressive trader and I've done lots of different kinds of trading -- daytrading (at a prop firm), swing trading, investing, FX, US equities/ETFs, and regular and binary options, etc, but daytrading binary FX options is my favorite style. My opinion is that if you have enough confidence in the trade, that allows you to take on what most traders would call "excessive leverage". That is, full margin. Call me crazy but that's how I enjoy trading and if you're good enough, you can amass a small fortune VERY quickly! I also have a great system that I use and that helps too... in fact, it's really the key to everything.

I don't think it's the case that I just hit a homerun, or I guess you could make that case, but then it would be more like I hit 5 or 6 home runs, not just 1, because I did the 1,800%+ in about 5 or 6 trades. This is what I mean. With options, each trades basically has the potential to just about double your money... up to a point, of course (when you have lots and lots of money). The more money you have, the harder it is to double your money, but theoretically you can still do it. The only thing you need is enough confidence in the trade.

I trade binary options through the NADEX exchange in Chicago (where I live), and I like them a lot. But I believe anyone can sign up with them (just go to their website). Binary options work by either closing at $0 OR $100, and so if you're wrong you lose all of your investment and if you're right then you make money, up to $100 per contract. Options are awesome and a blast to trade because if you make a mistake, it's going to force you to learn from it REAL quickly otherwise you'll be throwing money out the window fast.

I don't have a trade explorer (TE) and especially so for the options account (because I don't think it can be tracked). I suppose I would post a TE when I make enough money in FX, but I'm not there just yet and my expectations are quite high. So it might be a while, lol.

Options are all about finding non-randonmess in both price and time, and I would say it exists mostly in the form of recognizable patterns (on the charts). I'd continue to focus on those variables and you will notice that time is actually a fairly significant component to the markets. That is why I use an MTF approach which solves that problem, and more.

But you still need to know how to use the system the right way and develop a "feel" for it. And that can take time.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,448
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:55am Jan 10, 2014 12:55am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Hey jmn, thanks for the questions and sorry for the delayed response. I didn't see your message until just a few hours ago, and I'd still like to respond to it, since I said I would. I do think that I predicted the price(s), at least for the most part. I mean, that's what trading is. Traders predict prices all the time. Of course, not every trade is going to be right, but it's our job to manage our money well and it is actually the money management process that is more significant that the win ratio or number of pips or anything like that....
I left options alone in my stock trading days because you have to be right in both price AND time. I would buy calls only to watch the underlying move, but the option not at all. I found options to be pure gambling at that time. But if you can trade them, congrats!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,449
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:21am Jan 10, 2014 1:21am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I left options alone in my stock trading days because you have to be right in both price AND time. I would buy calls only to watch the underlying move, but the option not at all. I found options to be pure gambling at that time. But if you can trade them, congrats!

Bingo. Binary options, in my humble opinion, are a waste of time. Might as well go to the casino.

Lol. This thread is funny. Redlion is probably ready to change his name to Bluelion at this point because he is so sad at the demise of his thread. Smfh.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #1,450
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:31am Jan 10, 2014 1:31am
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Bingo. Binary options, in my humble opinion, are a waste of time. Might as well go to the casino. Lol. This thread is funny. Redlion is probably ready to change his name to Bluelion at this point because he is so sad at the demise of his thread. Smfh.
Oddly, ForexFury, I think redlion confirmed his original premise. The price predictability assumption was assumed for.............no reason at all.

Now, this thread for me did introduce me to some concept makers. They are at least trying to build systems that are robust using some kind of scientific method.

Especially intriguing is that Magix is trying to beat the grid problem, which is when to stop trading it.

Proximus is doing his U pattern concept.

I learned MzVega is a pretty bright egg.

I learned that hucksters avoid stats like the plague.

So this thread has been instructive, In quite a few ways for me.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,451
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:48am Jan 10, 2014 1:48am
Quoting Proximus
Hey i just opened the official thread about my "U" shaped pattern, we can discuss it there in more detail because here it seems like this thread is now a flaming war. Here is the link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7201590 My pattern is explained in detail there, so come check it out
Hi bud, good luck with the new thread, Obviously do not be afraid to ask questions no matter how ridiculous they may seem and a true trader/helper will offer advice even if it is classed as a stupid question.
Some of us are/were seasoned veterans of trading and quite a lot of forex methods come second nature to us , be good (.) (.)
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,452
  • Jan 10, 2014 1:52am Jan 10, 2014 1:52am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Oddly, ForexFury, I think redlion confirmed his original premise. The price predictability assumption was assumed for.............no reason at all. Now, this thread for me did introduce me to some concept makers. They are at least trying to build systems that are robust using some kind of scientific method. Especially intriguing is that Magix is trying to beat the grid problem, which is when to stop trading it. Proximus is doing his U pattern concept. I learned MzVega is a pretty bright egg. I learned that hucksters avoid stats like the...
Hi bud,, what are hucksters??? stats will help you lots and lots and lots.
The grid can be traded well but not in the old conventional way, thinking outside the box accomplishes it AND stats help too, but I cannot say more and yes Proxy has his (.) (.) but I think soon he might realise something what he is looking at regarding U patterns,and I say this in a positive way. Be good. I will not be around much
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,453
  • Jan 10, 2014 2:18am Jan 10, 2014 2:18am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi bud,, what are hucksters??? stats will help you lots and lots and lots. The grid can be traded well but not in the old conventional way, thinking outside the box accomplishes it AND stats help too, but I cannot say more and yes Proxy has his (.) (.) but I think soon he might realise something what he is looking at regarding U patterns,and I say this in a positive way. Be good. I will not be around much
I think that every trader has to go through the same progression of evolution. Prox has his (.) (.) as you say, and he will figure out some things while on that quest. Hucksters are people who make claims without the ability to back them up over time. I think it is self serving to say that " I made 2 billion percent in two hours on my latest system" and yet provide no paper trail of any kind. No TE, no nothing.

Keeping a log, a journal, and generating statistics on your trades helps not only the trader but any random centi-millionaire looking for a money manager.

I do not understand why empty claims are made, and when reasonable questions are asked, the claimants get very defensive, even hostile. Can you explain that behavior for me?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,454
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:42am Jan 10, 2014 4:42am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think that every trader has to go through the same progression of evolution. Prox has his (.) (.) as you say, and he will figure out some things while on that quest. Hucksters are people who make claims without the ability to back them up over time. I think it is self serving to say that " I made 2 billion percent in two hours on my latest system" and yet provide no paper trail of any kind. No TE, no nothing. Keeping a log, a journal, and generating statistics on your trades helps not only the trader but any random centi-millionaire looking...
You ignore everything that goes against, how you think or what you think, you have no concept that you yourself might be wrong, your totally close minded therefore you will never learn and it's impossible to debate with you.

Same goes to Magix and Nubs.

Your ownly input to this whole thread isv" I'm a millipeder" I'd put money on you don't trade.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,455
  • Jan 10, 2014 4:57am Jan 10, 2014 4:57am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} True, but there they happen almost instantaneously, there is only a small "window of opportunity" , probably a few miliseconds , if the EUR/USD goes up, the GBP/USD will go up at the same time, or not go up at the same time, it wont be any delay since the ticks come in parralel time in both pairs.So if you traded a short on EUR/USD and the pair went long, then you wont have a time to go long on GBP/USD it wont get delayed.Either the GBP/USD got long with the EUR or it will never do. I hope you understand me, correlation is good, but the...

Good point. So far I have only found this idea useful in confirming trends. If you have seen the pictures of the banks at Singapore, Frankfurt, London, et. al. You know that there are hundreds of screens looked at by hundreds of people, looking everywhere, so that the chances of you spotting an anomaly and acting on it before someone with access to big money does are nil.

The philosophical question is how can a truly random market have such an interrelated matrix of relationships?

The greatest usefullness of this idea may well be in keeping one from trading over actively. One of the most important ways to make good trades is don't make bad ones.

In the meanwhile, I continue my investigation of the idea in order to gain a better understanding in a general way of the nature and characteristics of the forex.
Something to do while I wait for the market to tell me something.
  • #1,456
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:32am Jan 10, 2014 5:32am
Ok i think some people misunderstood me, take for example the GBP/USD & EUR/USD , if something bad hits the USD, like for example less jobs, or bigger inflation, this hits the USD very hardly, this could trigger an uptrend in the GBP/USD & EUR/USD, but you said or i think you were referring to the GBP & EUR perspective, for example if Ukraine were to join the eurozone, this could boost the EU's economy, so the rise of the EUR/USD is inevitable, but not necessarly the GBP/USD too, since the UK has other trading partners than the EU, so it might affect them differently.

The common factor is the USD, which is common in both of them, and will trigger a reaction in both of them, but its not true vice-versa, to say that a EU zone bullish move will be a bullish for the UK too.

And also, i pointed out that ticks come in parralel, so the momentum can be delayed, for example a negative or positive news can manifest itself in longer term too, this week on the GBP/USD and the next week on the EUR/USD, but for short term trading its really meaningless to check for this correlation.

The 1 min bars or 5 min bars form exactly at the same time in both currency pairs, how do you know or prove that they are coupled by the common news?

I think its very impossible to test it, and draw a conclusion from it to the future, this is why primarly correlation only can be seen in the past, but you might never see clearly in the future, because its just too much uncertainly.

I think correlations, if used this way, dont give you an edge...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,457
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:42am Jan 10, 2014 5:42am
Quoting Proximus
Ok i think some people misunderstood me, take for example the GBP/USD & EUR/USD , if something bad hits the USD, like for example less jobs, or bigger inflation, this hits the USD very hardly, this could trigger an uptrend in the GBP/USD & EUR/USD, but you said or i think you were referring to the GBP & EUR perspective, for example if Ukraine were to join the eurozone, this could boost the EU's economy, so the rise of the EUR/USD is inevitable, but not necessarly the GBP/USD too, since the UK has other trading partners than the EU, so it might affect...
J

Markets have an initial reaction to news which you see, but all if the news dictates a value in banks minds, which the market will move towards, new news means this value is always changing.


Banks employ many people, who just sit there and work out the markets value.

Imho there is no way to do thaton your own and work, trade, have fun, sleep.

And your trading short term movements off a charge, trade the reaction, but never read the news and form an opinion cause most of the time,it will be wrong.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,458
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:50am Jan 10, 2014 5:50am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Wrong, again. I am not mad. Why would I be after putting on a trade for 1,800% and as much as 3,500% by the end of this week. I don't care if you're not impressed, because I am happy with it, and I don't trade for you. And it is improper to ask me what have I explained and therefore place the blame back on me. I could very well do the same thing and ask you, what have YOU explained? I have explained things here, and you should probably start by actually READING people's posts (particularly mine) before you go bashing people on public forums...

love it, when Trolls just ignore and make fun of anything that doesn't go there way,


Nice 1

Ofcourse the trolling will continue.

Do the followers actually believe the troll's blindly in there opinions, or do they just want to avoid being trolled themselves, so they join in!

Why do grown men act like they are 8 and back on the playground, bet they where all bullied at school and on the internet they canbe the bully.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,459
  • Jan 10, 2014 6:14am Jan 10, 2014 6:14am
The big old NFP is likely to move the market in favor of the USD.

USD will rise moderately against the JPY sending a pending buy into profit.And the GBP/JPY will fall sending a pending sell into profit.

If NFP disappoints, the pending trades can be removed wihout harm.

Sound reasonable?

USD/JPY +, USD/GBP -, -> GBP/JPY -

Use good money management. don't get too greedy. give breathing room between CMP and the pending trades
Take the pending entries off if NFP dissapoints. wish me luck!
  • #1,460
  • Jan 10, 2014 6:20am Jan 10, 2014 6:20am
Quoting Proximus
Ok i think some people misunderstood me, take for example the GBP/USD & EUR/USD , if something bad hits the USD, like for example less jobs, or bigger inflation, this hits the USD very hardly, this could trigger an uptrend in the GBP/USD & EUR/USD, but you said or i think you were referring to the GBP & EUR perspective, for example if Ukraine were to join the eurozone, this could boost the EU's economy, so the rise of the EUR/USD is inevitable, but not necessarly the GBP/USD too, since the UK has other trading partners than the EU, so it might affect...
You and diceman were talking currency correlation a few posts ago, which caught my eye. When a FA hits the news wires, the currencies quickly react. Depending on the magnitude of the FA's impact, an opportunity can open when traders begin to re-evaluate their holdings in longer terms, and work through the process of "re-balancing". Understanding this as it happens gives you the advantage of trading the right pairs, and offers an explanation of what is happening in the market as it develops. This isn't a price predictability thing, but is an inefficiency that can help you pick the best pair to trade. Not sure it fits the subject of the thread, but that doesn't seem to ever stop anyone.
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