why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 72 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,421
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:08am Jan 9, 2014 3:08am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} That is completely not true. I have explained something -- at least one thing, if not more, which means you are dead wrong. And I have been stating that I'm very willing to explain more (if anyone were interested... geee, wouldn't that be SHOCKING). And it's not like I'm some newbie trader, I've clearly stated that I am NOT, and also that I just made a trade for 1,800%. (Not saying that to impress anyone, well actually I was at first because i was so excited but that is not my intention of saying it now, it's moreso to clarify the...

Told you lol

He's just an A Hole troll who twists everything, He's been bigging up his so called profits.


Lol



I read on, huge posts off topic about how great is trading is lol scammer or nutter, you choose!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,422
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:35am Jan 9, 2014 4:35am
why not just call a truce.agree that you all hate each other and just ignore the posts written by the posters you dislike.

this was a good thread destroyed by bullshit.

come on were not kids in the playground,you all claim to have these huge iq, in what ?being so clever you cant see your childish stupidity.

lets get back on topic
  • #1,423
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:04am Jan 9, 2014 8:04am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Proxy, I think you ought to concentrate on one thing. Today you got 120 pipettes???? wtf are they, it looked like it moved about 30 pips or are they play things. Anyway,,, do back testing and check it out, sometimes it isn't as easy as to what happened today but I am glad you caught some pips (pipettes) and you do know about the spread altering don't you, just incase you lay await ion the future, be good , good trade today
Yes, i like to trade small sizes, to limit my exposure to the market.But i got another 100~ pipettes later that day scalping this little section:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1.png Size: 21 KB


If you noticed, this was also my pattern, the boob one as how you like to call it guys.

I just entered in the opposite direction to the initial breakout, gone short after the consolidation started, put my sl 40 pipette above the consolidation, then the takeprofit right at the level of start of the breakout ,which then gave me a RR of like 1.5 or so, and profited 100 pipettes, unfortunately lost another 60 pipettes a few minutes before so yesterday i closed with like + 200 pipettes in total only, and had 25 trades in total.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,424
  • Jan 9, 2014 9:04am Jan 9, 2014 9:04am
Quoting diceman555
why not just call a truce.agree that you all hate each other and just ignore the posts written by the posters you dislike. this was a good thread destroyed by bullshit. come on were not kids in the playground,you all claim to have these huge iq, in what ?being so clever you cant see your childish stupidity. lets get back on topic


Won't be bothering to respond to him again, don't worry.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,425
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:02am Jan 9, 2014 11:02am
Hey i just opened the official thread about my "U" shaped pattern, we can discuss it there in more detail because here it seems like this thread is now a flaming war.

Here is the link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7201590

My pattern is explained in detail there, so come check it out
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,426
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:36am Jan 9, 2014 11:36am
Quoting Proximus
Hey i just opened the official thread about my "U" shaped pattern, we can discuss it there in more detail because here it seems like this thread is now a flaming war. Here is the link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post7201590 My pattern is explained in detail there, so come check it out
1. Your first thread reply is from derpvery. Your thread is already completely fucked and not worth bothering with by anyone who knows any better. That's a fact.

2. Various people have already commented on this pattern in this thread, and you've ignored it all. Either you are set-up to test this like the other shit you have supposedly tested, or you are not. It really has to make a person wonder why, days later, you are still stuck on this one fucking thing like a dog with a bone and haven't just gone and run some proper analysis on it and put it to rest. In the time since you have started-on about this you could have gone and visually tested if you can turn a profit on this shit or not, if you are too lazy to properly analyze it like the other patterns. Really, what is your game here?

3. Why would you put this untested load of bollocks in the trading systems section? Sure, that section is a pile of shit, but you've only added to it further with just more unproven nonsense.

4. I don't know about anyone else but I'm done with this line of talk. It bores me, and you are wasting our time.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,427
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:48am Jan 9, 2014 11:48am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} 1. Your first thread reply is from derpvery. Your thread is already completely fucked and not worth bothering with by anyone who knows any better. That's a fact. 2. Various people have already commented on this pattern in this thread, and you've ignored it all. Either you are set-up to test this like the other shit you have supposedly tested, or you are not. It really has to make a person wonder why, days later, you are still stuck on this one fucking thing like a dog with a bone and haven't just gone and run some proper analysis on it and...
2) I didnt ignored it, i learned from it.This is the test, its hard to backtest it and quantify it, but i have a very strong feeling its a profitable pattern, i`ve encountered a few other similar situations and know how to trade them.Its just a fading- breakout scenario, but i picked this pattern because i belive its unique and working.

The discussion is necessary, and by more people trading it we shall see how profitable it will be, i already traded it 4 times in the last 2 days and i`ve been profitable from it each time

3) Hard to backtest it, the sistem is too complex, and too much parameters to count it, the size of the breakout, size of the ranging period, position, etc, its just better to trade it manually, and then from the feedback i can design an indicator to recognize this pattern, later...

4) Agreed, if you want to discuss this further, then do it in that thread, this thread has other topic, but anyway if my pattern is valid, then this proves that price can be predicted

So you are welcome
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,428
  • Jan 9, 2014 12:35pm Jan 9, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} 2) I didnt ignored it, i learned from it.This is the test, its hard to backtest it and quantify it, but i have a very strong feeling its a profitable pattern, i`ve encountered a few other similar situations and know how to trade them.Its just a fading- breakout scenario, but i picked this pattern because i belive its unique and working. The discussion is necessary, and by more people trading it we shall see how profitable it will be, i already traded it 4 times in the last 2 days and i`ve been profitable from it each time 3) Hard...
Notice, how its only Negative comments, never try this or anything helpful.

Don't let them rattle you, it might not work, but it's a journey and as long as your learning it's all good.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,429
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:23pm Jan 9, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting Magix
Going to stop you here. Though I can appreciate what you are saying, Turvey actually claimed to have an 80% trading system based on his dogshit charts. Somebody that can statistically define the success of a system, should have the ability to define simple entries and exits is not a full set of parameters.

For sure.
  • #1,430
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:03pm Jan 9, 2014 4:03pm
Rap Skallion;7196272 The forex is interlaced with a matrix of logical inferences, that can be used profitably, I think. for instance: If the EUR/USD is rising and the USD/JPY is falling, then the probability is very high that the EUR/JPY should be falling. I am for now calling these things "Co-complementary triplets". Among the 12 pairs I now trade there are 1320 possible such triplets.
The forex differs from stock, bonds, futures, in that You take a position on a Pair of items. If you buy AB and B goes up, but A goes up more, you profit. A can actually go down, but if B goes down more, you still profit. Everything is relative.

right now on the hourly charts:
gbpusd is moving up, usdcad down, and GBPCAD down.

but look at the trends;
they are all moving up as should be by implication

Thus these implications are not fractal: just because one is true on one time frame does not make it true on another.

During major news events, especially if there is a surprise, will the implication hold?
My guess is they will be very stong if the surpise accelerates the current trend and not hold if the surprise reverses the trend.
but we must see if this is true.

Do these implications influence correlations between pairs? My guess is that they may do so in very complex ways.
If the general pattern is +,+=+, My guess is you will see a stronger correlation between the three than if it is +,-=+

Will I be correct?

AM I F.O.S. ?


(of course both could be true or both false or... never mind)

I do trade actively
  • #1,431
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:27pm Jan 9, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
Rap Skallion;7196272 The forex is interlaced with a matrix of logical inferences, that can be used profitably, I think. for instance: If the EUR/USD is rising and the USD/JPY is falling, then the probability is very high that the EUR/JPY should be falling. I am for now calling these things "Co-complementary triplets". Among the 12 pairs I now trade there are 1320 possible such triplets. The forex differs from stock, bonds, futures, in that You take a position on a Pair of items. If you buy AB and B goes up, but A goes up more, you profit. A can...
This is the core of my trading and to be frank the difference between consistently being profitable and not.

These correlations if studied by the maths brigade will show that price is not random.the mistake made with correlations of pairs is they are compared in % terms to change.hence a % value is measured and dismissed due to the variables of inconsistency.these correlations need to be viewed in effect.not value.the fact that the values are random in comparison to its closest correlated pair is not the point.i can guarantee that the market is inefficient from this view point.
  • #1,432
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:29pm Jan 9, 2014 4:29pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
Rap Skallion;7196272 The forex is interlaced with a matrix of logical inferences, that can be used profitably, I think. for instance: If the EUR/USD is rising and the USD/JPY is falling, then the probability is very high that the EUR/JPY should be falling. I am for now calling these things "Co-complementary triplets". Among the 12 pairs I now trade there are 1320 possible such triplets. The forex differs from stock, bonds, futures, in that You take a position on a Pair of items. If you buy AB and B goes up, but A goes up more, you profit. A can...
True, but there they happen almost instantaneously, there is only a small "window of opportunity" , probably a few miliseconds , if the EUR/USD goes up, the GBP/USD will go up at the same time, or not go up at the same time, it wont be any delay since the ticks come in parralel time in both pairs.So if you traded a short on EUR/USD and the pair went long, then you wont have a time to go long on GBP/USD it wont get delayed.Either the GBP/USD got long with the EUR or it will never do.

I hope you understand me, correlation is good, but the pairs move at the same time so you wont have time to profit from one mistake on another pair.Even if you do, its probably an illusion, so in this perspective, correlation only exists in the historical data, so correlation cant be used as a "sneak peek in the future" kind of mechanism , sadly
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,433
  • Jan 9, 2014 4:35pm Jan 9, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} True, but there they happen almost instantaneously, there is only a small "window of opportunity" , probably a few miliseconds , if the EUR/USD goes up, the GBP/USD will go up at the same time, or not go up at the same time, it wont be any delay since the ticks come in parralel time in both pairs.So if you traded a short on EUR/USD and the pair went long, then you wont have a time to go long on GBP/USD it wont get delayed.Either the GBP/USD got long with the EUR or it will never do. I hope you understand me, correlation is good, but the...
sorry,but total nonsense .

most of the time they work in unison ,but not always.this is the inefficient part.

forget the value difference thats why the correlations are imperfect to understand.they as a group that are all one .are the doller.it tells you far more than you would ever believe
  • #1,434
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:08pm Jan 9, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} This is the core of my trading and to be frank the difference between consistently being profitable and not. These correlations if studied by the maths brigade will show that price is not random.the mistake made with correlations of pairs is they are compared in % terms to change.hence a % value is measured and dismissed due to the variables of inconsistency.these correlations need to be viewed in effect.not value.the fact that the values are random in comparison to its closest correlated pair is not the point.i can guarantee that the market...
Interesting finally!

I use a % to calculate range and the same % works across all markets.

Dynamic thinking at last!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,435
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:16pm Jan 9, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} True, but there they happen almost instantaneously, there is only a small "window of opportunity" , probably a few miliseconds , if the EUR/USD goes up, the GBP/USD will go up at the same time, or not go up at the same time, it wont be any delay since the ticks come in parralel time in both pairs.So if you traded a short on EUR/USD and the pair went long, then you wont have a time to go long on GBP/USD it wont get delayed.Either the GBP/USD got long with the EUR or it will never do. I hope you understand me, correlation is good, but the...

Incorrect, eu could have no big sellers and start to move up quickly based on U side news...


GU has large sell orders to fill, so the buys are being absorbed and the price can lag consideraly, maybe even 30mins.

Ofcourse the buyers can lose interest, and GU goes the other way.

It's all about order flow which creates momentum, fear and greed create ranges and boobs.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,436
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:24pm Jan 9, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} This is the core of my trading and to be frank the difference between consistently being profitable and not. These correlations if studied by the maths brigade will show that price is not random.the mistake made with correlations of pairs is they are compared in % terms to change.hence a % value is measured and dismissed due to the variables of inconsistency.these correlations need to be viewed in effect.not value.the fact that the values are random in comparison to its closest correlated pair is not the point.i can guarantee that the market...
I am pretty tired and not really following what you are saying. I prefer trading the exotics, but avoid them as we approach, or until after , a FA. Would you mind disussing an example from that starting point?
  • #1,437
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:40pm Jan 9, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I am pretty tired and not really following what you are saying. I prefer trading the exotics, but avoid them as we approach, or until after , a FA. Would you mind disussing an example from that starting point?
not quite sure of the question ,starting point ?
  • #1,438
  • Jan 9, 2014 6:50pm Jan 9, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} not quite sure of the question ,starting point ?
Hi diceman, I'm not sure I'm following the discussion, so please forget my question and let me follow a bit more. I spend time during the trading day thinking about correlations among the 17 pairs I trade, and find trading opportunities from this effort. Am interested in how others are viewing this.
  • #1,439
  • Jan 9, 2014 7:31pm Jan 9, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Incorrect, eu could have no big sellers and start to move up quickly based on U side news... GU has large sell orders to fill, so the buys are being absorbed and the price can lag consideraly, maybe even 30mins. Ofcourse the buyers can lose interest, and GU goes the other way. It's all about order flow which creates momentum, fear and greed create ranges and boobs.

You actually sound smarter when you are trolling...

Fuck...

Give up, already.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,440
  • Jan 9, 2014 9:47pm Jan 9, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting Magix
What have you explained? That you took a winning trade? 1 win, and you are no longer a newbie? lol Show some pattern or consistency, otherwise, we'd all say the same. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. And if you had something to explain, are you waiting for an invite? Seriously, why come to the thread if not to talk the topic? If this is your current idea of how shit works, I can see why you would side with scurvy. Admittedly, I haven't taken a lot of time to read through your posts. After the first few words, I have come...
Wrong, again.

I am not mad. Why would I be after putting on a trade for 1,800% and as much as 3,500% by the end of this week. I don't care if you're not impressed, because I am happy with it, and I don't trade for you.

And it is improper to ask me what have I explained and therefore place the blame back on me. I could very well do the same thing and ask you, what have YOU explained? I have explained things here, and you should probably start by actually READING people's posts (particularly mine) before you go bashing people on public forums without any evidence.
Quoting Magix
Admittedly, I haven't taken a lot of time to read through your posts. After the first few words, I have come to the decision that the rest of the post, typically isn't worth reading. I see no value in the content, nor your contribution to this thread in particular.
I think you are the one that is trolling and wasting time and precious space on this thread, and it specifically because of you that I decided to not share information about my system and methodology, because I wouldn't want it to be wasted on someone as ungrateful and inconsiderate as you.

In fact, I find that quite remarkable, because others could very well have benefited from this information, and it has taken me over a year to even decide if I want to disclose it at all, because it is that good. I don't care if you don't believe me. I don't need you to. Because I know that it works, and it works DAMN well.

And no, I am not a newbie at all. I've been trading for years and have an uncanny ability to accurately predict price and it is only because for a long time I have lacked the discipline to follow the system that I have struggled as a trader, up until now. I could go on and on about my trading history but then I'm sure you would say that I'm doing nothing but trolling the thread, which I am not, because I have a lot of valuable insights to contribute which, for some reason, you keep failing to understand.

I'm already getting tired of having to explain myself, and if you are as smart and genuine as you say you are, then I'd be inclined to kick it back a notch and take a chill pill. Your vulgar language is certainly not appreciated by anyone and yet we are still trying to be as polite, friendly, and helpful as possible, but you won't let that happen.

I think I'll be done here soon, like Turv said. He's the smartest one here... And I'll bet he's a better trader too.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
0 traders viewing now