why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 71 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,401
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:37pm Jan 8, 2014 7:37pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Step away from this thread, until they pull you to pieces asking for proof, then ignoring everything you say that doesn't suite there purpose. That'll wreck your confidence!! Aimed at Smash!! Do it another 10times, then give me a Mil or 2, just cause you can LOL
I like you, Turv.

I don't get why everyone gives u such a hard time.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,402
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:42pm Jan 8, 2014 7:42pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I like you, Turv. I don't get why everyone gives u such a hard time.

There angry loser troll's and anyone who challenges there beliefs, is wrong ofcourse, you can't argue against a BELIEF, despite the fact none of there Beliefs are actually working.

Exactly the same reaction if I went into a church and said God doesn't exist ( doesn't ofcourse )



But seriously step away from the thread, and don't forget to pay your 50% hooker tax
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,403
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:48pm Jan 8, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting smittens4212
But anyways, somewhere in it he surmises that discretionary human traders currently beat quant systems and likely will continue to for a long, long time, because markets are so complex that there are simply too many constantly changing variables to ever explicitly write rules for, while the human brain is simply more adept at discerning the actual human behavior that is driving the markets to do what they do.
I would guess that this is very true.
  • #1,404
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:07pm Jan 8, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Did you predict price? What is your definition of a prediction? How do you know you didn't just hit a homerun? Do you have TE linked up to this account? There's a start. The reason for these questions is to get a baseline on finding non-randomness in the market environment in both price AND time.
The thread has gone to the dogs.

20% of the posts here and more than 2x as many posts as any single individual, is owned by Turvy.

No charts, no evidence of a single statement, has argued with every member to try and attempt logic and I'd be willing to be that he has said the word "Troll", in more posts than anything trade or thread related.

Now, he rides in the shadows of somebody who has actually turned a profit this week...but it makes no difference, because it is still not thread related.

I like how you ask if it has anything to do with predictability or randomness...no answer...

The thread has gone to the dogs.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,405
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:27pm Jan 8, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} The thread has gone to the dogs. 20% of the posts here and more than 2x as many posts as any single individual, is owned by Turvy. No charts, no evidence of a single statement, has argued with every member to try and attempt logic and I'd be willing to be that he has said the word "Troll", in more posts than anything trade or thread related. Now, he rides in the shadows of somebody who has actually turned a profit this week...but it makes no difference, because it is still not thread related. I like how you ask if it has anything to do with...
90% of my posts where to you, stop trolling me, and 90℅ less posdts, easy!



I was showing my charts as proof of market patterns and market isn't random, you and Nubs turned it into a anti me bitch slanging fest, you then proceeded to badger for proof, then live charts, posted live charts, which all profited, but know my method isn't valid because its not programable. Lol

And your trying to make out, I'm the bad guy, while pushing your bogus method, to no doubt attract investors, you have a 200ema on a chart, well done.

And I have not read 1 on topic post from you yet.

So drop the trolling, drop the childish attitude, and try showing other traders more respect.


And goodbye! For the final time!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,406
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:39pm Jan 8, 2014 8:39pm
Ok, guys. I don't want to step in the middle of this, except to say... get ready
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,407
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:47pm Jan 8, 2014 8:47pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} 90% of my posts where to you, stop trolling me, and 90℅ less posdts, easy! I was showing my charts as proof of market patterns and market isn't random, you and Nubs turned it into a anti me bitch slanging fest, you then proceeded to badger for proof, then live charts, posted live charts, which all profited, but know my method isn't valid because its not programable. Lol And your trying to make out, I'm the bad guy, while pushing your bogus method, to no doubt attract investors, you have a 200ema on a chart, well done. And I have not...
Let's tackle these errors in order...
*were, posts slagging, program-able, lol

-90% of your posts were not addressed to me, but I would be willing to bet that 90% of your posts have no thread relevance.

-I wasn't badgering you, I left the thread until you accused me of being a scammer, that is the only reason I came back.

- You tried to prove that I was trolling for commercial interests, and claimed to have even Emailed Twee with the same, and yet, without a shred of proof of this, like most of your claims, I am still here.

- I am not making anybody out to be the bad guy, I am saying that you are full of shit. That is completely different. If you offered anything by way of a competent statement or proof to back up a single solitary post, it'd be different, but you can't keep on topic long enough to actually be relevant.

- Yes, I have a 200 EMA on my chart....And?

- And the reason that you haven't read 1 post by me on topic is because you don't read posts. You argue with the first sentence. Rather than trying to keep on topic, or learn something, you began a mudslinging fight when I beat your sorry ass down for not being able to provide a single chart nor trade to support your bullshit theory. So, keep slinging mud.

You have destroyed the thread to the point that there it would be easier to re-start from scratch than would be for admin to remove all of the worthless bullshit that you have added, problem is, you do this to every thread you visit. The only threads that you haven't managed to completely fuck up, are your own...but these are sad little lonely houses, because not even newbies will read through your tripe or pay you a second visit.

I show traders a lot of respect. Problem is, you are not a trader, and have started a campaign against me, for absolutely no reason but to start shit. I have roasted you on everything that you have claimed, by simply knowing how to expose you for your worthless bullshit. You again, have failed at even effective trolling, and will continue to be a loser at everything you accomplish.

I felt sorry for the tear soaked pillow turvey...but you must have woke up to a big ole cup of anger this morning, because you had to start shit over.

You are pathetic.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,408
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:49pm Jan 8, 2014 8:49pm
You want to know what I think of all this? I think it's all bullshit and doesn't even matter!

Are you guys successful traders? Do you make money? A lot of it?

That is the only determinant of trading success, in my opinion.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,409
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:53pm Jan 8, 2014 8:53pm
I will show you guys how I just made 1,800% this week, in 48 hours, and the week's not over yet.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,410
  • Jan 8, 2014 9:08pm Jan 8, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting smash1820
I will show you guys how I just made 1,800% this week, in 48 hours, and the week's not over yet.
Smash...people win the lottery every week, giving the millions of percent on their investment.

I will congratulate you as I would them.

Great Job!



But let me ask you this...What the fuck does that have to do with the thread topic?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,411
  • Jan 8, 2014 9:19pm Jan 8, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting Magix
Smash...people win the lottery every week, giving the millions of percent on their investment. I will congratulate you as I would them. Great Job! But let me ask you this...What the fuck does that have to do with the thread topic?
Thanks for the compliments.

It very much has to do with the thread topic, since we are all traders here, and -- more specifically -- all successful traders are interested in learning and improving their skills in order to become more profitable over the long run, as I have done.

I'm surprised you couldn't figure that out.

Is that good enough now?
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,412
  • Jan 8, 2014 9:33pm Jan 8, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Thanks for the compliments. It very much has to do with the thread topic, since we are all traders here, and -- more specifically -- all successful traders are interested in learning and improving their skills in order to become more profitable over the long run, as I have done. I'm surprised you couldn't figure that out. Is that good enough now?
Nope.

I took a winning trade, is not the thread topic.

You have explained absolutely nothing.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,413
  • Jan 8, 2014 9:50pm Jan 8, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting Magix
You have explained absolutely nothing.
That is completely not true. I have explained something -- at least one thing, if not more, which means you are dead wrong.

And I have been stating that I'm very willing to explain more (if anyone were interested... geee, wouldn't that be SHOCKING).

And it's not like I'm some newbie trader, I've clearly stated that I am NOT, and also that I just made a trade for 1,800%. (Not saying that to impress anyone, well actually I was at first because i was so excited but that is not my intention of saying it now, it's moreso to clarify the facts so you don't make a point of saying I'm some newbie trader, which I am not).

I guess I'm on Turv's side now. I see what he means.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #1,414
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:09pm Jan 8, 2014 10:09pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} That is completely not true. I have explained something -- at least one thing, if not more, which means you are dead wrong. And I have been stating that I'm very willing to explain more (if anyone were interested... geee, wouldn't that be SHOCKING). And it's not like I'm some newbie trader, I've clearly stated that I am NOT, and also that I just made a trade for 1,800%. (Not saying that to impress anyone, well actually I was at first because i was so excited but that is not my intention of saying it now, it's moreso to clarify the...
What have you explained? That you took a winning trade?

1 win, and you are no longer a newbie? lol

Show some pattern or consistency, otherwise, we'd all say the same. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

And if you had something to explain, are you waiting for an invite?

Seriously, why come to the thread if not to talk the topic?

If this is your current idea of how shit works, I can see why you would side with scurvy.

Admittedly, I haven't taken a lot of time to read through your posts. After the first few words, I have come to the decision that the rest of the post, typically isn't worth reading. I see no value in the content, nor your contribution to this thread in particular.

So, rage on, again.

I'm neither impressed by a single win, nor am I offended or threatened by the fact that you side with turvy...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,415
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:19pm Jan 8, 2014 10:19pm
smash1820....I did ask you a few questions to get you going in the discussion, did you miss them?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,416
  • Edited 1:32am Jan 9, 2014 12:49am | Edited 1:32am
Now, here is a point to ponder on price predictability...

The EAs I run are based on a Trigger on Grid strategy. They will add on increment for each step of the grid. Trades will look like
1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

They are cost averaging each time they don't bring home a closed trade for a minimum net of 10 pips.

The success on these is based on the fact that market will move in a predefined range and with the randomness of triggering off the M1 charts, will consistently take profit off of the primary or will cost average in this dynamic grid range until the pre-set profit is in.

Rather than just analysing a single point on a chart or where we are able to try and define supply and demand zones...what if in the randomness of market we use the retrace as the predictability factor?

Like with all grids, there is an eventuality where the rubber meets the road...

But can we also define days of the week when we may assume these to be true?

Monday to Wednesday being the typical whip n chop zones, allows for a greater prosperity for Grid Based Strategies.

Thursday to Market Close, trend to kick and grids to look to blow up.

When can we look to the markets for the greatest predictability inside of the month with this basic strategy? When can we look to it on the yearly?

Having worked with these for close to 2 years, there is always, if left uninterrupted, the inevitable crash. With the interjection of the weekly open logic, we have 52 weeks, if we work on basic probabilities being in our favour...why not use this as a defined predictability as applied to price?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,417
  • Jan 9, 2014 1:52am Jan 9, 2014 1:52am
Quoting Magix
Now, here is a point to ponder on price predictability... The EAs I run are based on a Trigger on Grid strategy. They will add on increment for each step of the grid. Trades will look like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. They are cost averaging each time they don't bring home a closed trade for a minimum net of 10 pips. The success on these is based on the fact that market will move in a predefined range and with the randomness of triggering off the M1 charts, will consistently take profit off of the primary or will cost average in this dynamic grid range until...

That's an idea, it has been well documented that Thurs and Fri are trend days, so that makes sense, run the EA from Wellington on Sun to Frankfurt on Thursday. Hmmmm.....that would mean the market is not totally random. Good thinking.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,418
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:13am Jan 9, 2014 2:13am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That's an idea, it has been well documented that Thurs and Fri are trend days, so that makes sense, run the EA from Wellington on Sun to Frankfurt on Thursday. Hmmmm.....that would mean the market is not totally random. Good thinking.

Random enough to be a challenge...defined enough to find prosperity...

Are we inside or outside of the box thinking here?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,419
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:31am Jan 9, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Random enough to be a challenge...defined enough to find prosperity... Are we inside or outside of the box thinking here?
It's the definitions of things in the market that I think most of us chase. At least least those of us that chase market algorithms. But, as most of us have found out, from you and I to LTCM, no algorithm works all the time. So I think finding the correct logic and being married to the correct time is definitely outside of the box. Not so far outside of the box as WD Gann ( he left the box factory towards the end), but more so than trying to trade MA crossovers on Sunday.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,420
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:51am Jan 9, 2014 2:51am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That's an idea, it has been well documented that Thurs and Fri are trend days, so that makes sense, run the EA from Wellington on Sun to Frankfurt on Thursday. Hmmmm.....that would mean the market is not totally random. Good thinking.
well stated by magix. normal trading days being tue-wed other days are good for systems. don't trade on holidays and summer time etc.
The grid method he mentioned, I was doing something very similar but my range was 100 pips and I was compounding every 20 pips, so if a trade moved 100 pips I would get around 500. But you need good fast software. and I never used leverage.
you then need stats and most entries are based on entering on a pairs high or low range, this is the predictability part and it is harder than you think.

so on the whole nice post by magix, trade well guys
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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