Howard and the 1000 trading adventures (2014)!

Ok, let's keep it simple.

2014, a new little account (10k €), a trade explorer where anybody can see every trade, starting little.
No rules, just free style trading.


One final note:
don't try this at home, high risk trading, not suitable for every investor.

Cheers boys!

Great idea Howard. I wish you a happy new year and a very profitable 2014!

I will be following both threads now

.....

Interesting trading ideas. It will be great to keep an eye as we approach to them and how do they develop when and if we get to them.

I don't personally trade long term but I understand it is a great style to capitalize, and just as you mention there will be plenty of time to plan.

I don't use indicators anymore, only price and some manual measurements. Price is price and is the ultimate and best indicator of all. Maybe I will be able to provide my 2 cents

great

Ok, the new year has begun, i'm back from holiday, ready for action.
The explorer is up and running in realtime, the first 2014 trade has been entered, well this is what i call a start!

Ok, the explorer just started working (it wasn't working untill at least 1 trade was closed, i just made a 0.01 lots halfpip scalp for the reason).

So.. this is the first trade of the account (and hopefully not the last), we're actually short on eurusd.
Our exposure is around.. 50-60x leverage (6 lots), and we keep an open tp on this (the current tp is at 1.33 but is not indicative).

Time will tell

Edit:
I would say, this is a "B" trade (not an class A, yet it have its potentiality).

Having a look to USD index chart, wow.
Perhaps we've our AAA trade, the usd index is simply perfectly bullish.
On a first looking, seems like price is targeting the 81.6 area (november highs) (equivalent of 1.33 on eurusd).

But on a more careful analysis, the technical target for the usd index is actually 82.7 area (september highs).

By the way, the good thing right now is that momentum and "geometry" coincide, so i think chances of take out the first target are very strong right now.
As for the second, it will be a more longterm one, and with all the risks that comes with longterm forecasts (foundamentals can change with time), so for now i would concentrate on the short-term one.

Usd index at 81.6, applied on the eurusd chart so, this is actually 1.33.

I just upgraded this trade from "class B" to "class A+", with a current leverage used of 61x, it's not the case to add more to the position.
Once again, time for wait.

Yes this can be our christmas AAA trade gift, take it or leave it.

ok i've taken the profits on this one, perhaps early, but this lack of momentum force me to get out before a possible reverse (unlikely, but possible).

Yet, +30% for the first trade of the year.
I call it a day

Edit:
The main reason of this looking for momentum is the release of FOCM, ideally a strong move was expected on such release, and as it didn't happened, we just get out and come back tomorrow.

Cheers!

Men you must be a hell of an account builder, 30 %...



Spaceduck when you refer to momentum, how do you gauge lack of momentum ? is lack of price speed or is more
like taking a low and quickly reversing back not advancing much beyond swing low/high (depending on direction), in this case
showing not much interest... I always see people refering to momentum but is something that still confuses me.

Cheers

Thanks man,

actually i just mean the fact that price (we're talking about eurusd right) was stuck on a 10pips range after the focm release, for about 20 minutes.
Now, a real strong move (especially after an important news) would make at least 50pips in 20 minutes, nice 1min candles that goes straight in one direction without look back.

Today instead, after the focm we had yes a nice 15pips downspike, but then price stopped, some up and down 1min candles, not really going nowhere for 20mins, not really the kind of move i was looking for (i hope to have satisfied your question, not really a scientific answer you see, lol).

Said this, i think this downtrend have still big potential and new lows can be made at anytime, but ok.. tomorrow we have the ecb with draghi, then nfp, this pair is hot this week.. better be careful

Wow, 1 min charts, I thought I never was going to see you trading these.

Nice explorer Howard. Wish you the best this year.

Spaceduck you talk experience, thanks for replyng...

GbpUsd.

With the ecb rate decision and draghi conference today, it's good to look around other pairs (non eurusd) to see what they have to offer.

The current situation remain the same, usd bullishness expected, with xxx/usd pairs mostly at the lows already, i see gpbusd seems to not be too much affected from the current usd strenght.

It is still enjoying a long-term uptrend, looks toppish, lack some momentum, show some divergences in big timeframes, yet like a volcano, the trend can wake-up again at any time.
This for say, no matter what, this is a "class C" trade, against the trend.

Said this, the current action looks like a corrective one (A-B-C-D, ideally we are currently at C), there was a little top just at 50% fib (not that this mean anything in terms of validity of the trade, but fibonacci is cool!), and well we will know soon if this trade is good or not.

The current exposure is around 47x, overall there is still some little room to add to this trade.

Good morning!

Update:
Due to the risk nature of this one, we're going to secure a stop at +1 as soon as price break yesterday lows.

I made an image of abcd pattern, looks like technical (analysis) masturbation, but yet it have some sort of sense.

Leverage used now is 68x (enough!).


I will keep a close watch to this one..

Bizzarre situation, usd is getting slapped, usdchf on the drop and eurusd on the highs, yet the sterlin is getting slapped too, making gbpusd not feeling the usd drop at all for now.

Even more, seems like we may have some sort of short-term doubletop (yesterday and today highs) in place, as long as it hold, things are good.

Interesting times..

So...

Big movements in most of xxx/usd and usd/xxx pairs today, some nice strenght on the usd, yet gbp/usd (looks like have nothing to do with the usd dollar at all) is relaxing just around the highs, totally careless about what happen in the currencies market.

The setup still is valid, so for me it's a "wait and see what happen".

I can feel a breath on my neck, threatening.. something is just there..

It's the trend, perhaps angry because of our recently friendship denied.


Is there, is not willing to give up easily.


It's clear that this gbpusd trade is not working as expected, we're going to close it around breakeven unless some real strong (with a lot of momentum) break of yesterday low happen, which right now seems unlikely.
Even the opportunity to close this at breakeven is far from being a sure thing.

Technically the setup is still valid, but my "risk perception" on this trade have now reached a level too high, i'm not fully comfortable anymore. And i guess this is valid for all the cable short-term sellers out there.

Ok.. let's see today what happen, the current plan is close at breakeven unless some strong (downside) action is seen.

Good morning to everyone!

Good morning Duck, you on the ball as always, GBP/USD smashed yesterday lows...

Thank you, yeah patience payed out well.
I just take profits early on this (yet i think cable have rooms on the downside, but we never know) as it's friday and nfp soon, it was a nice week there's no need to risk more.

P.s.
That was a stressful trade!