why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 67 | Forex Factory

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  • #1,321
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:16am Jan 8, 2014 6:16am
Simple question to everyone...
If a guy normally trades at example...£10 / $10 per pip and then he starts to trade at £1 / $1 per pip AND if he has a losing trade he ups the stake to £2 / $2 is this in your eyes Martingale... I am asking this as I am being watched by and I want to scare the crap out of him. (long story).
So martingale or not
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,322
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:17am Jan 8, 2014 6:17am
Quoting Turveyd
Proxy, the nipple you see frequently,is a fast spike, it hits SL's from tight nervus newbies. Omg why does my SL keep getting hit right before the turn I'm so unlucky lol Other newbies will think, missed the move up, omg its going higher and jump in, then can't get a break. embrace the nipple, its mostly reversible!
I would like to embrace a few nipples myself
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,323
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:18am Jan 8, 2014 6:18am
Did my 120sma envelope call the top of the boob, ohhh yes it did again. And the direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,324
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:21am Jan 8, 2014 6:21am
Quoting billytt
Simple question to everyone... If a guy normally trades at example...£10 / $10 per pip and then he starts to trade at £1 / $1 per pip AND if he has a losing trade he ups the stake to £2 / $2 is this in your eyes Martingale... I am asking this as I am being watched by and I want to scare the crap out of him. (long story). So martingale or not
Martingaling, is adding more and more positions, with no SL.

P.s. you have 2 nipplesof your own lol
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,325
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:21am Jan 8, 2014 6:21am
On the Question of Boobs (I like boobs - I just knew I couldn't stay away from them) Are you sure that no one is confusing these with inverted and un-inverted bowls ? They seem to take 2,3 times longer in unfolding and are strong indicators of trend reversals; when broken, even stronger indications of continuations.

I am just waking up to the possibilites of this idea, so I will go back over the posts.

Good luck to all. Things are getting busy
  • #1,326
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:27am Jan 8, 2014 6:27am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Martingaling, is adding more and more positions, with no SL. P.s. you have 2 nipplesof your own lol
thnxs, I know what martingale is but my question is,,, a normal trade is 10 but then reduced to 1 and then doubled if a loss occurs to 2,,,,
as this is still less than the original 10 trade is it martingale
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,327
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:28am Jan 8, 2014 6:28am
Quoting Rap Skallion
On the Question of Boobs (I like boobs - I just knew I couldn't stay away from them) Are you sure that no one is confusing these with inverted and un-inverted bowls ? They seem to take 2,3 times longer in unfolding and are strong indicators of trend reversals; when broken, even stronger indications of continuations. I am just waking up to the possibilites of this idea, so I will go back over the posts. Good luck to all. Things are getting busy
I knew a girl with inverted nipples and she wanted to be a lap dancer but she wasn't allowed
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,328
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:30am Jan 8, 2014 6:30am
Quoting Rap Skallion
On the Question of Boobs (I like boobs - I just knew I couldn't stay away from them) Are you sure that no one is confusing these with inverted and un-inverted bowls ? They seem to take 2,3 times longer in unfolding and are strong indicators of trend reversals; when broken, even stronger indications of continuations. I am just waking up to the possibilites of this idea, so I will go back over the posts. Good luck to all. Things are getting busy

serious note Rap,, your right but the way I traded mostly was a nice inside /outside bar but be present quite often too. I cannot speak for a short time frame
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,329
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:34am Jan 8, 2014 6:34am
Quoting Turveyd
Did my 120sma envelope call the top of the boob, ohhh yes it did again. And the direction. {image}
I'd put it down to something much simpler, support turned to resistance :nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,330
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:35am Jan 8, 2014 6:35am
Quoting billytt
{quote} thnxs, I know what martingale is but my question is,,, a normal trade is 10 but then reduced to 1 and then doubled if a loss occurs to 2,,,, as this is still less than the original 10 trade is it martingale

No thats just averaging down or building a position, I do that, if you get a better price, with your trend use it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,331
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:38am Jan 8, 2014 6:38am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} I'd put it down to something much simpler, support turned to resistance :nerd: {image}

Yes but this simple method, gives me where it weill likely turn if trend is holding, again and again.

Obviously it loses on a trend change.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,332
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:45am Jan 8, 2014 6:45am
no martingale..

Fixed % risk for all trades.
  • #1,333
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:46am Jan 8, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} No thats just averaging down or building a position, I do that, if you get a better price, with your trend use it.
I do not mean averaging down...
If a guy normally bets £10 chip on red at roulette...
and then starts to bet £1 chip on red at roulette..
If he loses and next bet he doubles up to £2 chip on red would you say this is martingale
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,334
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:07am Jan 8, 2014 7:07am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I do not mean averaging down... If a guy normally bets £10 chip on red at roulette... and then starts to bet £1 chip on red at roulette.. If he loses and next bet he doubles up to £2 chip on red would you say this is martingale

Only if you keep doubling it, or atleast adding to it, for ever with no wish to exit at a loss.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,335
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:24am Jan 8, 2014 7:24am
Damnit, i should check fundamentals more often, check out this, according to the FF calendar, just now @ 15:15 according to my timezone, was a high impact news.It was a nonfarm employment change in the US, and it was better than expected so negative for the EUR, but still, it could be traded with 2 pending orders in the opposite direction,sort of like a grid type OCO order.

Just check it out, what a nice bearish stick:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1.png Size: 16 KB


Unfortunately i jumped in too late in the wrong direction...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,336
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:32am Jan 8, 2014 7:32am
Quoting Proximus
Damnit, i should check fundamentals more often, check out this, according to the FF calendar, just now @ 15:15 according to my timezone, was a high impact news.It was a nonfarm employment change in the US, and it was better than expected so negative for the EUR, but still, it could be traded with 2 pending orders in the opposite direction,sort of like a grid type OCO order. Just check it out, what a nice bearish stick: {image} Unfortunately i jumped in too late in the wrong direction...

15mins before I expected, hadn't checked news as not trading today thankfully for me.

EU moved upto top range, also under 1.3600 before the news then sold back.

Stop trading off single bars of history, you was getting somewhere, keep thinking!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,337
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:47am Jan 8, 2014 7:47am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} 15mins before I expected, hadn't checked news as not trading today thankfully for me. EU moved upto top range, also under 1.3600 before the news then sold back. Stop trading off single bars of history, you was getting somewhere, keep thinking!
Actually it was like 2-3 consecutive bars on M1, because it has a big momentum, but whatever, you dont have to worry about me.

I just put a quick buy order after the retracement started, and bingo 102 pipettes there, and -42 pipettes the loser trade so it was a positive 60 pipette, but anyway, this situation also resembled my "U" shaped pattern, a quick down move, then almost immediately a retracement, the high volatility move downward caused by the news, quickly got pulled back to the equilibrium state of the market.Sort of balancing out itself.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1.png Size: 16 KB


So i`m starting to feel that the pullbacks are a very nice opportunity, i havent even considered it before, since i was always a pro trend trader but looks like i need to change perspective .

The E/U got very choppy since the crisis, so i guess pullback/volatility trading is better there.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,338
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:22am Jan 8, 2014 8:22am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Actually it was like 2-3 consecutive bars on M1, because it has a big momentum, but whatever, you dont have to worry about me. I just put a quick buy order after the retracement started, and bingo 102 pipettes there, and -42 pipettes the loser trade so it was a positive 60 pipette, but anyway, this situation also resembled my "U" shaped pattern, a quick down move, then almost immediately a retracement, the high volatility move downward caused by the news, quickly got pulled back to the equilibrium state of the market.Sort of balancing out...
heres how i traded it.i closed at the monthly averaged 30 level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png 10.png Size: 114 KB
  • #1,339
  • Jan 8, 2014 1:17pm Jan 8, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yes but this simple method, gives me where it weill likely turn if trend is holding, again and again. Obviously it loses on a trend change.

Herp derp derp like pretty much any moving average system ever?
  • #1,340
  • Jan 8, 2014 1:52pm Jan 8, 2014 1:52pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Actually it was like 2-3 consecutive bars on M1, because it has a big momentum, but whatever, you dont have to worry about me. I just put a quick buy order after the retracement started, and bingo 102 pipettes there, and -42 pipettes the loser trade so it was a positive 60 pipette, but anyway, this situation also resembled my "U" shaped pattern, a quick down move, then almost immediately a retracement, the high volatility move downward caused by the news, quickly got pulled back to the equilibrium state of the market.Sort of balancing out...

Hi Proxy, I think you ought to concentrate on one thing. Today you got 120 pipettes???? wtf are they, it looked like it moved about 30 pips or are they play things. Anyway,,, do back testing and check it out, sometimes it isn't as easy as to what happened today but I am glad you caught some pips (pipettes) and you do know about the spread altering don't you, just incase you lay await ion the future, be good , good trade today
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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