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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,221
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:39am Jan 7, 2014 11:39am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} What exactly do you expect to discuss, though? .
Well because this thread is about price -predictability and i just showed a pattern that repeats, this can be a +1 to predictability vs total randomness.

The pattern starts with a big breakout and the price gets back to equilibrium after, so we could trade the pattern itself, not necessarly the price after.

Quote
In the end price still went nowhere in a hurry. On such a low timeframe it could be something as simple as some shitty stops hitting at once by chance of them all stacking in that location, or a few people had to go and get a sandwich for lunch so there was less liquidity than previously would have been... etc. Who knows? There are plenty of legit possibilities. Maybe Bill Gates fired someone and there was a currency conversion that needed to be done from $USD to $YOURFIRED's. On higher timeframes it could be something simple like some news causing...

Doesnt matter what causes it really, the point is that it repeats itself too much to be random, and this is a good sign that something strange is to this pattern.

Quote
I mean, shit, if you can find a way to tell if it's going to reverse or continue to breakout then go for it.

Yea, just trade the pullback after the initial breakout, thats fair enough i guess.The pattern itself can be traded, no need for looking whats after the pattern.

--------------

And by the way it happens on all timeframes not just on M1, here are more examples on other timeframes:

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"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,222
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:39am Jan 7, 2014 11:39am
ha, yes, how many times at night, after hitting my space-bar for 2 hours (shortcut key in forextester), i slapped my desk and cursed 'this sucker is full of crap!', we must've shared the same curse, lol

the forextester money is well spent. it is like tradestation, dukascopy, we must have one of them.

Quoting nubcake
I know that for myself when I'm testing a bullshit idea it seems to take on average 100 sim trades to see things float back around breakeven for the first or second time and show that it's just a random set of entry and exits that are going nowhere.
  • #1,223
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:43am Jan 7, 2014 11:43am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} No, what I was pointing out was, that pattern is often created by a MM algorithm. Price is an advertizing mechanism to solicit trade. All it is a computer program that moves price to attract buyers & sellers. Did you "Read" the attached PDF? Algorithms can create patterns. I never claimed it predicted price or directionality. It’s just recognizable and exploitable, I never said or implied that it could predict, just exploitable. Please re-read my post I never said it had anything to do with the AMT process, it "described" a type of "structure"...
The fact that it can be exploited is good enough.Just let us give positive expectancy and we should not care more.

Ok i will reread your post, i`m sorry if i didnt remembered it well it was a few weeks ago.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,224
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:48am Jan 7, 2014 11:48am
Quoting charvo
okay, so it is not a tradable setup at all yet. in fact, the market is filled with all kinds of 'U', 'V', 'W', 'M', you name it, why U so special?....... but i take back that it is 'hopeless'. you can try one thing now that you are good at run statistics: take U with its mouth pointing up for example, when its right arm is finished. what if you short with a SL on higher of two arms, and a TP at the U's bottom. if that doesn't work, add a higher timeframe trend filter. if that still not working, well, good luck. the U you presented, is sort of like...
Well its hard to tell what differentiates this particular pattern from other U,V,M , double top, head & shoulder type patterns, but its even harder to quantify it.I think i should open a new thread about this where we can discuss it better.

I dont know but i find this pattern very charming, its just not a normal breakout scenario, its more.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,225
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:48am Jan 7, 2014 11:48am
Quoting charvo
we must've shared the same curse
I can neither confirm, nor deny, such allegations... I have lost some hair, though

Quoting Proximus
{quote} Well because this thread is about price -predictability and i just showed a pattern that repeats, this can be a +1 to predictability vs total randomness. The pattern starts with a big breakout and the price gets back to equilibrium after, so we could trade the pattern itself, not necessarly the price after. {quote} Doesnt matter what causes it really, the point is that it repeats itself too much to be random, and this is a good sign that something strange is to this pattern. {quote} Yea, just trade the pullback after the initial breakout,...
But, again, you are ignoring all of the times that it doesn't reverse on itself and just keeps going. Either I've simply never, ever, noticed this "repeatable pattern" in the same way you have, and similarly neither has anyone else including people who specifically test different patterns much like you do, or this isn't a particularly interesting pattern.

All patterns repeat. This one just happens to stand-out more than the others. Bars retracing against each other is a repeatable pattern, but that does nothing for putting pips in the bank when it's just as likely that price will do something other than the expected outcome of the pattern, thus forming another pattern anyway.

I can't see any in the pics you provided, but I'm telling you I've seen plenty of times where you get 3/4's of the way through your "U" shape and then price fucks-off to the moon in continuation of the previous move.

You are just seeing what you want to see. When you go and run your numbers on this pattern I'm confident you will be mightily disappointed. But again, if you can manage to get some entries and exits that don't get stomped by the spread plus the times you get stopped-out then go for it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,226
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:53am Jan 7, 2014 11:53am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} I can neither confirm, nor deny, such allegations... I have lost some hair, though {quote} But, again, you are ignoring all of the times that it doesn't reverse on itself and just keeps going. Either I've simply never, ever, noticed this "repeatable pattern" in the same way you have, and similarly neither has anyone else including people who specifically test different patterns much like you do, or this isn't a particularly interesting pattern. All patterns repeat. This one just happens to stand-out more than the others. Bars retracing...
That is why we have to quantify it, i just marked the patterns which looks like this, but to be propertly analyzed we must quantify it.

As for the method of trading, you didnt understand it, we dont trade the price after, we trade the pattern itself.Just enter at the end of first breakout when the consolidation starts, to fade the move and enter in the opposite direction.So we ride the 2nd breakout in the other direction.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,227
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:56am Jan 7, 2014 11:56am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} The fact that it can be exploited is good enough.Just let us give positive expectancy and we should not care more. Ok i will reread your post, i`m sorry if i didnt remembered it well it was a few weeks ago.
No the point is, because the market gets flat. If there is not enough buy & sell pressure to move the market "you create it" as in market "maker". The prices moves up & down to solicit or entice you to trade. Price goes low enough it attracts buyers, if it goes high enough it attracts sellers. When there is not enough buyers or sellers to move the market, they advertize using price. Pretty soon , in time, (price over time= value) you've attract enough buyers or sellers which will create an imbalance in which price will then move higher or lower. They are just basic market principles/processes. Its just the way the market works...............if you understand the way the market works, its explainable, and therefore tradable within the context of the current market condition.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,228
  • Jan 7, 2014 11:59am Jan 7, 2014 11:59am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Thought you was 1 of the okay 1's, but hey what brain dead troll's say must be right hey. Watch as they turn on you next for fun lol You'll excuse me if I don't waste my time with average IQ losers, who've been brain washed into so much bad trading BS they will never ever make it.
Based on the evidence you have presented, the conclusion is clear.

You come into a thread, say you have a system that wins 80% of the time, with no statistics to back that up, then only trade it very part time with very low money. For someone with such a high IQ that sure looks to me a stupid thing to do.

Instead of responding as someone with a high intellect, you begin to call people names. Ad hominem attacks are a sure sign of a lost argument.

The conclusion is quite clear, Turv.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,229
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:00pm Jan 7, 2014 12:00pm
Proximus,, Hi bud,,, the areas you highlighted in your charts are all indecision and these levels can be traded, I cannot speak for the lower time frames used though.
BUT look at those inside bars these are the signals, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,230
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:01pm Jan 7, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That is why we have to quantify it, i just marked the patterns which looks like this, but to be propertly analyzed we must quantify it. As for the method of trading, you didnt understand it, we dont trade the price after, we trade the pattern itself.Just enter at the end of first breakout when the consolidation starts, to fade the move and enter in the opposite direction.So we ride the 2nd breakout in the other direction.
It all depends on how picky you want to be about defining it. You could just sling it some bullshit like it starts with a bar that is > 2x the previous bar size of the previous 30 bars, and then the next 5+ bars don't break further from the top of this initial bar any more than 20% it's size. Something like that. If you have managed to define other patterns I can only assume you'll equally find a way to enter this one for analysis.

And I understood what you were saying about trading the U. You want that fade. I'm saying to you that I've seen plenty of times where you get the first half of the U, and not the fade. I've seen it take-off just as many times as I've seen it fade. I'm saying to you that afaic it's just another coin-toss in amongst every other conceivable pattern that you can imagine, so without further context it's just noise amongst the rest of the noise and is meaningless on it's own and certainly unreliable at best.

But if you can find a way to ensure your stops don't get hit, and the fade distance is large enough to cover costs, then you could very-well fade the move and be happily earning pips. This all rests on not getting stopped and not having the spread hurt too much. Good luck with that on M1, and on higher you are still contending with getting the entry and exit right and not having your stop hit.

I'm saying to you that, yes, this pattern visually stands-out from the rest, but it's still just like any other combination of bars you could imagine. It goes up, and down, fades, and breaks-out, is volatile, is not volatile, etc. On it's own it's just another rabbit hole, unless you find some nugget of context that I have not.

Anyways, fuckit. billy is around which means derpvery is around which means it's time to pull the plug.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,231
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:08pm Jan 7, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That is why we have to quantify it, i just marked the patterns which looks like this, but to be propertly analyzed we must quantify it. As for the method of trading, you didnt understand it, we dont trade the price after, we trade the pattern itself.Just enter at the end of first breakout when the consolidation starts, to fade the move and enter in the opposite direction.So we ride the 2nd breakout in the other direction.

How does that help us if that pattern itself is a random occurrence?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,232
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:35pm Jan 7, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That is why we have to quantify it, i just marked the patterns which looks like this, but to be propertly analyzed we must quantify it. As for the method of trading, you didnt understand it, we dont trade the price after, we trade the pattern itself.Just enter at the end of first breakout when the consolidation starts, to fade the move and enter in the opposite direction.So we ride the 2nd breakout in the other direction.
A pattern that is tradable cannot contain the trade that needs to be taken within the pattern itself.

Simply because you can't see all the failed half U's on the left side of your chart because they didn't become a U doesn't make the U's you see something consistent.


I can't believe I'm typing this. lol
  • #1,233
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:04pm Jan 7, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Well because this thread is about price -predictability and i just showed a pattern that repeats, this can be a +1 to predictability vs total randomness. The pattern starts with a big breakout and the price gets back to equilibrium after, so we could trade the pattern itself, not necessarly the price after. {quote} Doesnt matter what causes it really, the point is that it repeats itself too much to be random, and this is a good sign that something strange is to this pattern. {quote} Yea, just trade the pullback after the initial breakout,...
Proximus, an important skill of a retail trader is to anticipate the levels that cause the formation of your "U" pattern, and to take note of where these levels develop, since they may be significant for future reference, and should not appear random or unexplainable to you. If, when, or how you place a trade depends on how your trading strategy utilizes these levels, and in all probability, they belong in the category of a trade setup, not a trade.
  • #1,234
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:12pm Jan 7, 2014 1:12pm
I think Proximus would do well to assume that if something was relatively simple to find, whether that be a candle pattern or some combination of indicators (or minutiae like tiny blips in the spread), chances are between the vast resources of everyone who has analyzed the markets before, it would have been found. The key being whether it is simple or not.


Otherwise he's on the path of one-too-many failed "Eureka!" moments that could just be avoided all together.


Consider the person who toys with backtesting various indicators and settings within those indicators. Does that person understand how easy it is to do that? And if it's that easy, what are the odds it hasn't been done? Do you think your 20 SMA / 32.4 EMA / 210 LWMA system has magical settings that nobody ever discovered before? With enough resources, you could test thousands of combinations of different indicators and settings together, but in the end all you're doing is fitting tools that work in a given condition to the condition that occurred during the time frame that was tested. Will those tools work in the future given the same conditions? Yeah, but there's the rub; how do you determine when those conditions apply?


I think one reason many successful traders are able to be successful is there tends to be a discretionary element in their methodology. They may trade based off of moving averages, support/resistance, or any other number of technical pieces of information-- or maybe they trade based off of CPI, NFP, or any other number of fundamental pieces of information, but regardless in the end there is likely a discretionary element to decide what to actually do with that information. E.g. negative NFP numbers will be shrugged off in a euphoric market (Dot Com bubble!), just like moving averages will get whipped around in a consolidating market. But that doesn't mean you can't trade NFP numbers of moving averages profitably, it just means they must be traded within context, which is imo one of those intangible elements that the majority of traders will never successfully get.
  • #1,235
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:24pm Jan 7, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting smittens4212
...........within context, which is imo one of those intangible elements that the majority of traders will never successfully get.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,236
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:45pm Jan 7, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} In brief, what were your findings?
My findings were these are not good enough to beat the spread, hence 'not my dish'.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,237
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:07pm Jan 7, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote}
me too.
  • #1,238
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:12pm Jan 7, 2014 3:12pm
LOL your all a bunch of complete newbies, who haven't got a clue in the world how to trade, it's literally the blind leading the blind LOL


Including the ohhhh so great, ohhhhh so critical of everyone Nubs LOL


Here, is a hint for you all " GIVE UP! " LOL


p.s. people have been trying the boob system for years and losing!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,239
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:18pm Jan 7, 2014 3:18pm
Have you guys read how the I.Q.test scores of kids in school have been steadily rising this past decade?

So more and more traders should be finding success in the forex, right?
R-i-ight!

Y'all should meet my uncle Clem, the conspiracy theorist. He'd set you straight.

It's a conspiracy!
  • #1,240
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:20pm Jan 7, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
Have you guys read how the I.Q.test scores of kids in school have been steadily rising this past decade? So more and more traders should be finding success in the forex, right? R-i-ight! Y'all should meet my uncle Clem, the conspiracy theorist. He'd set you straight. It's a conspiracy!

Rising in the rest of the world, because the USA is doing it's best to lower there IQ therefore lowering the average.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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