Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 190 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,781
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:00am Dec 27, 2013 8:00am
Quoting Irad
Hi, I wanted to share AJ setup I am looking at right now Weekly: Consolidation(who is in control? I barely can say...) {image} Daily: departure from daily demand, now we are approaching fresh daily supply {image} 4H: inside the daily demand fresh(some will say also original) supply area(RBD) - set&forget(I'll go set&remember style) {image}
Take a look at your weekly chart and tell me what you see... I drew something for you Irad...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,782
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:06am Dec 27, 2013 8:06am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Take a look at your weekly chart and tell me what you see... I drew something for you Irad... {image}
Thanks,
But can you connect those TL based on the that upper demand area that didn't took anything out and just formed another valley?
If you'll say yes, I really don't get all this TL thing.
  • #3,783
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:07am Dec 27, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Irad
{quote} Thanks, But can you connect those TL based on the that upper demand area that didn't took anything out and just formed another valley? If you'll say yes, I really don't get all this TL thing.
Two valleys in one direction making higher highs, what is that per definition? There is nothing new, it's a trendline definition, it's what prices is telling us, nothing else
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,784
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:15am Dec 27, 2013 8:15am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Two valleys in one direction making higher highs, what is that per definition? There is nothing new, it's a trendline definition, it's what prices is telling us, nothing else
that's what price is telling me, TL is broken, no solid direction on weekly, and we haven't got a higher high to form this TL again.
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  • #3,785
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:25am Dec 27, 2013 8:25am
Quoting Irad
{quote} that's what price is telling me, TL is broken, no solid direction on weekly, and we haven't got a higher high to form this TL again. {image}
Sorry, I made a mistake on the TL.. I guess it was moved when dragging the text objects on SnagIt before pasting it here... I was drawing something more detailed for you, take a look at the attchment.

You are completely right.. the TL I drew is not valid, take a look at the new attachment I was drawing for you Irad. That explains it better with the right TL.
The break of a TL does not necessarily mean there is a trend change... There is valid demand on the closest WK demand. If there is no WK supply to remove and it makes a higher high with no level to remove, will you wait for 5.000 pips to validate WK Demand? That's part of the rules as well. TLs and HH are connected, but not necessarily go hand in hand always.

This does not mean that the H4 supply you are looking at is not a valid entry.

Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,786
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:54am Dec 27, 2013 8:54am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Sorry, I made a mistake on the TL.. I guess it was moved when dragging the text objects on SnagIt before pasting it here... I was drawing something more detailed for you, take a look at the attchment. You are completely right.. the TL I drew is not valid, take a look at the new attachment I was drawing for you Irad. That explains it better with the right TL. The break of a TL does not necessarily mean there is a trend change... There is valid demand on the closest WK demand. If there is no WK supply to remove and it makes a higher high...
thanks for the quick responses
and I see your point about making higher highs only to form a TL regardless the rule to wait for a absorbing opposed demand/supply area
no point waiting that much while price showing you direction,
great insights alfonso, I like it.

also I am not biased on that TL break to where market will go, price can do anything,
but right now it seems like AJ weekly is doing nothing -break of TL can be also a sign for consolidation -
  • #3,787
  • Dec 28, 2013 9:29pm Dec 28, 2013 9:29pm
Hi Alfonso, I'm the spanish guy again. Where can I find the supply and demand indicator for Forex Tester 2?

I decided to buy the Tester and try your method, I've been doing some trades and I got very nice profits, but with the indicator could improve my trading even faster.

Thank you.
  • #3,788
  • Dec 29, 2013 3:34am Dec 29, 2013 3:34am
Quoting raulbeni
Hi Alfonso, I'm the spanish guy again. Where can I find the supply and demand indicator for Forex Tester 2? I decided to buy the Tester and try your method, I've been doing some trades and I got very nice profits, but with the indicator could improve my trading even faster. Thank you.
Hi,

Here it is - http://www.acegazette.com/en/communi...rextester.html

  • #3,789
  • Dec 29, 2013 5:41am Dec 29, 2013 5:41am
Quoting fwloop
{quote} Hi, Here it is - http://www.acegazette.com/en/communi...rextester.html
Thank you
  • #3,790
  • Jan 5, 2014 12:37am Jan 5, 2014 12:37am
Hi Alfonso,
I've just joined FF and started reading this thread, fantastic job you're doing.
However I am not able to watch your videos, at least not the earlier ones, they are not running.
Could you help with that ?? I'm very interested in your work.
Appreciate your Attention. Be well.
  • #3,791
  • Jan 7, 2014 6:09am Jan 7, 2014 6:09am
Hi Torance This is the link of the videos,http://www.youtube.com/user/supplyanddemandforex, if you want download ,install the Free youtube downloader and make right click in the midle of the screen when the video is running copy video URL and fill the lane pasting in the freeyoutubedownloader and click in the botton download and that s all,sorry for my English.
  • #3,792
  • Jan 7, 2014 10:16am Jan 7, 2014 10:16am
Hi Juank010 -- Thank you, very appreciated. I'll try to follow your instructions. Your English is quite good.
  • #3,793
  • Jan 7, 2014 1:55pm Jan 7, 2014 1:55pm
Hello traders! This is my D1/h1 combo for EURUSD. In D1 we have a non-fresh CP area. In H1 we have some confirmation level. When this confirmation level tend to be invalidated.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,794
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:42pm Jan 7, 2014 2:42pm
hey traders, please help me understand one thing.

With D1/H1 timeframe, as Alfonso says "do not trade in the middle of the curve", does it mean we should not trade H1 levels if the price is more or less 50% between D1 supply and demand?

I also noticed we should not trade long above 75% and not trade short below 25% of the distance between D1 supply and demand, correct?

Thanks a lot.
Michal9
  • #3,795
  • Jan 7, 2014 9:29pm Jan 7, 2014 9:29pm
You're welcome.Torrance
  • #3,796
  • Edited 9:20am Jan 8, 2014 8:21am | Edited 9:20am
Hi guys
Does anyone has finished the eurusd test yet? Cos i want to discuse the results
passion and discipline
  • #3,797
  • Jan 8, 2014 2:41pm Jan 8, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting bobyv87
Hello traders! This is my D1/h1 combo for EURUSD. In D1 we have a non-fresh CP area. In H1 we have some confirmation level. When this confirmation level tend to be invalidated. {image} {image}
I had a loss there. What i missing here? Any suggestions will be welcome
  • #3,798
  • Jan 9, 2014 2:19am Jan 9, 2014 2:19am
Quoting michal9
hey traders, please help me understand one thing. With D1/H1 timeframe, as Alfonso says "do not trade in the middle of the curve", does it mean we should not trade H1 levels if the price is more or less 50% between D1 supply and demand? I also noticed we should not trade long above 75% and not trade short below 25% of the distance between D1 supply and demand, correct? Thanks a lot.
Hi Michal9,

As I understand by this rule we have to avoid trades, unless there is a trend. If we have clear trend on entry TF, than we can trade at fresh in the middle of the curve. The trend could be recognised with using trendlines.
  • #3,799
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:03am Jan 9, 2014 8:03am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} I had a loss there. What i missing here? Any suggestions will be welcome

Hi bobyv87,
I'm not an expert, but I think your trade was correct. Daily trend is up (you should draw a trendline) and the D1 zone was fresh. The level on H1 was valid. So everything was fine. But did you check the usd index? As I see it is trending up on D1 TF, although the price is near to weakly supply zone.
I would like to know others opinion about this trade too.
  • #3,800
  • Jan 9, 2014 1:06pm Jan 9, 2014 1:06pm
Hello Alfonso,

If you see this and have a moment to comment I'd really appreciate it. The question is also in the screen shot and this is the USDSGD chart from your most recent webinar (a few weeks back).

During the webinar someone thought the gray CP demand pattern produced a loss, and you pointed out that the cp demand pattern wasn't really demand because the previous high was not taken out. It had been my understanding that a new high wasn't necessary, but rather that the opposing supply was removed. I have an orange rectangle around what I'm thinking is the supply zone which was removed.

Knowing how robot-like you are, my guess is that what I marked isn't really supply, but I can't figure out why. Price made a significant new low after my supply level, it was a strong move and it was fresh. I count 6 candles, which is getting a bit much, certainly wouldn't want to trade it, but still I thought it was a level.

I know I've come across this a few times and can't quite get straight what the exact rules are for deciding if a level is a level: a) does prior level need to be absorbed? b) does a prior high need to be taken out or c) both a and b. Sometimes it seems you use a), other times b) and thus far I can't figure out why you do one and not the other.

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