Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
- #1,202
- Jan 7, 2014 9:25am Jan 7, 2014 9:25am
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
- #1,203
- Jan 7, 2014 9:33am Jan 7, 2014 9:33am
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
- #1,204
- Jan 7, 2014 9:34am Jan 7, 2014 9:34am
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
- #1,205
- Jan 7, 2014 9:55am Jan 7, 2014 9:55am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: . | 4,038 Posts
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
- #1,206
- Jan 7, 2014 10:11am Jan 7, 2014 10:11am
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
- #1,207
- Jan 7, 2014 10:29am Jan 7, 2014 10:29am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: . | 4,038 Posts
this belief also partially comes from me seeing many traders simply get success by reading the chart and pull the trigger without math or stats knowledge. {quote}
Doesn't every wannabe guru sell the story of how "simple" this all is, of course without actually saying what it is that is so simple? I'm sure there are people out there who genuinely mean it and aren't just trying to stroke their own cock on a forum, so there's probably truth to it.
In terms of the intellect side of things, it's more for us who have to sort-through the patent bullshit people spew on the forums. On this forum alone there are many, maaaaany, members who are so short-sighted and just have no fucking clue about anything... and some of them make the most posts in the whole forum. Some people are smart enough to see their nonsense, run it through their head, and come to a far deeper understanding about it all than the person who posted ever will. I mean, you've seen some of the shit I've replied to and attempted to deconstruct. I've even picked-apart some of your posts where you were thinking one thing but I've (strongly) suggested something else.
Just as some people can't see those 3D magic-eye pictures, others can with ease. Some people can't rotate 3D objects around in their mind, or rotate 2D maps, or understand timezones... etc. When people want to imagine a whole story of bullshit mixed with terribly broken math and flawed statistical conclusions, then it helps to be able to manage all of that stuff in your head to stand a chance at running a critical eye over it all and debunk it and see it for what it really is.
The guys on the trading floors certainly weren't running deep complex math while they were standing-around shouting at each other trying to catch a trade and not get elbowed to death. So, yeah, there's that. But until you can learn what they did, and do what they did, then you are stuck dealing with all of the bullshit people post on forums when you hang-around here looking for anything new and interesting. Getting suckered in by some muppets "attitude" and naive enthusiasm is the fast-lane to wasting your time listening to a dickhead who probably has no clue about much in life.
Any dumb asshole can win a fortune on a lottery ticket, but it takes a certain (but low) amount of intellect to realize that it's not a worthwhile endeavor to spend your life savings on lottery tickets hoping to win big like that other lucky guy who got lucky. Despite this there are still plenty of assholes out there wasting their money on lottery tickets, so make of that what you will
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
- #1,208
- Jan 7, 2014 10:34am Jan 7, 2014 10:34am
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
cut crap, i don't even bother to elaborate with you something like " all system, if working on high TF, should work on low TF too ", and many similar crap, exactly shows what stage you are at. man, for your good, though harsh, reduce your posts, but increase your screen time. again, i say it for your own good. {quote}
As for the TF problem, yes, i didnt said it is like that for all types of systems, but for candlestick patterns in particular it works like this:
On lower timeframes, the edge or the information which is carried by a pattern stick, which differentiates that particular candle from the noise, is too weak.Sort of a hammer or a tasuki type pattern, carries less information on low timeframe, because its uncertain wheather that stick is just a noise or really a pattern.
But as you go higher in timeframes, since you merge candles as you go higher, and since the price is fractal-like, 5 consecutive hammer on M1 = 1 hammer on M5, even if there are candles between them, if the high and low is less than the local max and min , then its equivalent, even if they are not even consecutive.
But the stuff which differentiates a lower timeframe from a higher is the number of dojis, because they are randomly formed so they are noise too, on higher timeframes there are less dojis than on the lower, you can check it on my research spreadsheet, you can clearly see that on M1 dojis make up 20% of the sticks while on H1 only 6% or so.
And since the random noise & dojis (which are also randomly formed so they are noise) become less and less at higher timeframes, the momentum and information content of candles become amplified as you go to higher timeframe.
Thats a fact, if you dont believe me, i told you, test it yourself and you will see.Thats the purpose of scientific experiments that it can be repeated.
If you could not comprehend what i just said here, then please stop insulting us, because you dont even understand what we talk here about.Have a nice day.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
- #1,209
- Jan 7, 2014 10:40am Jan 7, 2014 10:40am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: . | 4,038 Posts
Here's a helpful tip from nubcake: Not everyone who disagrees with you, or simply sees how full of shit you are if you are one who speaks a lot of shit, is a troll. You fuckers wouldn't know a troll if it sat on your head and farted, so give the "troll" whining a rest. You'll look less stupid, even if only marginally less. 
Pro-tip: This isn't trolling either, despite how much you want to say that it is. Learn the difference between being called-out and being trolled. You won't be thanked for doing so, but at least you will make your parents that tiny bit prouder for learning something new.
Pro-tip: This isn't trolling either, despite how much you want to say that it is. Learn the difference between being called-out and being trolled. You won't be thanked for doing so, but at least you will make your parents that tiny bit prouder for learning something new.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
Cause the market does move differently M1 to H4, M1 lets you trade live action, trading the order flow which is what I do, H4 becomes a prediction game and well yeah you can't really predict H4, there are trends but there SLOW!!
The only difference between M1 and H4 is time scale, period. "Order flow" behaves virtually identically on M1 as it does on H4, the difference being one is limited to the order flow of the day while the other would contain longer and larger amounts of order flow. The psychology behind human behavior is the same on M1 as it is on M3 as it is on M37 as it is on H2 as it is on H7. Markets are fractal.
They casually look the same, but in reality ofcourse they behave differently, totally. Just comparing H4 to M1 GU and they same anyway, they have areas which look the same, but over all no, but no, I have no interest in being tested, as I have ZERO interest in trading H4
So M1 moves differently than H4, but they look the same, but they behave totally differently, but they look the same, and they have areas that look the same, but they're not the same and you have zero interest in actually finding out if they behave the same, and you've got nothing more than your stupid opinion to back your claims?
Here's a helpful tip from nubcake: Not everyone who disagrees with you, or simply sees how full of shit you are if you are one who speaks a lot of shit, is a troll. You fuckers wouldn't know a troll if it sat on your head and farted, so give the "troll" whining a rest. You'll look less stupid, even if only marginally less.
This. 1000x.
- #1,211
- Jan 7, 2014 11:01am Jan 7, 2014 11:01am
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
Ok before i get ignored by more people lets get back to topic again, i dont like to criticize people, but when its necessary then its necessary.
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So you guys said that you dont have much confidence in single candle patterns, ok i admit too they are not the best and especially the hammer is just too random to be traded, ok thats understandable, but everyone should analyze them for themselves.
What i would like to talk about more is my "U" shaped pattern again.As mzvega pointed it out a few thousand pages back, it has something to do with the auction market theory and the auction mechanism in the market.Which is interesting, i myself also believe that this pattern has carries very much information about the future price.
So i think we should discuss this one more, because i think we didnt discussed it enought, and it is appearing very very often in the market to just ignore it.
If you missed my explanation about it a few pages back, here is a picture illustrating this pattern:
This is the inverted "U" shaped pattern as i call it, and this is the bearish version of it.Its characteristics are: a long bullish upside breakout,then a short period of consolidation (consolidation, not range ,this is important), and then a downward breakout.
So if we assume that this pattern is showing high inefficiency, and it does, then it looks like the market gets inneficient then quickly gets corrected and the market gets back to its equilibrium state .But before that we could trade it and make money from it.
It is very frequent, on EUR/USD it appears almost hourly if you trade on M1, so we must discuss it.And also this shows very good signs that price can be predicted with chart patterns!
So let me hear your opinion about it!
-----------------------
So you guys said that you dont have much confidence in single candle patterns, ok i admit too they are not the best and especially the hammer is just too random to be traded, ok thats understandable, but everyone should analyze them for themselves.
What i would like to talk about more is my "U" shaped pattern again.As mzvega pointed it out a few thousand pages back, it has something to do with the auction market theory and the auction mechanism in the market.Which is interesting, i myself also believe that this pattern has carries very much information about the future price.
So i think we should discuss this one more, because i think we didnt discussed it enought, and it is appearing very very often in the market to just ignore it.
If you missed my explanation about it a few pages back, here is a picture illustrating this pattern:
This is the inverted "U" shaped pattern as i call it, and this is the bearish version of it.Its characteristics are: a long bullish upside breakout,then a short period of consolidation (consolidation, not range ,this is important), and then a downward breakout.
So if we assume that this pattern is showing high inefficiency, and it does, then it looks like the market gets inneficient then quickly gets corrected and the market gets back to its equilibrium state .But before that we could trade it and make money from it.
It is very frequent, on EUR/USD it appears almost hourly if you trade on M1, so we must discuss it.And also this shows very good signs that price can be predicted with chart patterns!
So let me hear your opinion about it!
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
- #1,212
- Jan 7, 2014 11:09am Jan 7, 2014 11:09am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: . | 4,038 Posts
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
- #1,213
- Jan 7, 2014 11:10am Jan 7, 2014 11:10am
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
this is the key issue, so that i'd like to communicate on, 
it was 2011, right? i used your backtester, it was great. but i need to test my auto EAs as well as some customized simulation, so i went for forextester. i did lots of simulation either traditional indicator based systems, or no-indicator price driven, or martingale ones. all failed. it is well likely because my EAs are crap, not necessarily the general idea......
but the turning point comes from aside. losing hope on automatic systems, i started to manually test. bar-by-bar human eyes. over less than 2 years, i estimate that i spend about 300 hours purely on manual test. i used all kinds of PA knowledge i know. really, most of crap i see on FF, i filter most of them. and majority of them are simply crap. till here, i reach one same conclusion here with you. we are at FF, swimming in shit to pick one or two gems on the bottom of the pool -- what a stink job.
the more important finding is:
some rare PA knowledge is true, like significant horizontal levels (S/R, SD), while most others are not. for the working knowledge, it works according to "why it works" (or my belief why it works). so i am not trading blindly on how without 'why'.
then comes a problem, i find it very hard to systematically summarize these knowledge, or rather, feelings. it becomes senses, instead of concepts that may be conveyed. this has been troubling me for quite a few months now. i can usually produce straight up equity curves in simulation, but i don't exactly know clearly how i get it done from a god's view. therefore, i am unsure how good i'm or how safe i trade.
in other words, i think i have an edge now, but i cannot quantify it or make a complete theory. i need to sit down and look back tons of simulation and look into each trades to summarize ....... this is a time-consuming job so i have not done it.
my live trading improves in a similar but conservative manner, so the edge is not an illusion. and i believe i don't need great statisticians to prove it. long time ago, i read somewhere on FF one post saying that 1000 hours forextester chart time will simply make it. i was regretful i didn't pay attention to it, lol.
so you see, having done lots of backtests/statistics in MT4, Matlab, Forextester, i switched from a quant-style trader(learn to be) to a manual trader. i leave all statistics, mathmatical behind so that now I cannot even convey my knowledge in a quantified manner. lol . but i see myself on the right path.
it was 2011, right? i used your backtester, it was great. but i need to test my auto EAs as well as some customized simulation, so i went for forextester. i did lots of simulation either traditional indicator based systems, or no-indicator price driven, or martingale ones. all failed. it is well likely because my EAs are crap, not necessarily the general idea......
but the turning point comes from aside. losing hope on automatic systems, i started to manually test. bar-by-bar human eyes. over less than 2 years, i estimate that i spend about 300 hours purely on manual test. i used all kinds of PA knowledge i know. really, most of crap i see on FF, i filter most of them. and majority of them are simply crap. till here, i reach one same conclusion here with you. we are at FF, swimming in shit to pick one or two gems on the bottom of the pool -- what a stink job.
the more important finding is:
some rare PA knowledge is true, like significant horizontal levels (S/R, SD), while most others are not. for the working knowledge, it works according to "why it works" (or my belief why it works). so i am not trading blindly on how without 'why'.
then comes a problem, i find it very hard to systematically summarize these knowledge, or rather, feelings. it becomes senses, instead of concepts that may be conveyed. this has been troubling me for quite a few months now. i can usually produce straight up equity curves in simulation, but i don't exactly know clearly how i get it done from a god's view. therefore, i am unsure how good i'm or how safe i trade.
in other words, i think i have an edge now, but i cannot quantify it or make a complete theory. i need to sit down and look back tons of simulation and look into each trades to summarize ....... this is a time-consuming job so i have not done it.
my live trading improves in a similar but conservative manner, so the edge is not an illusion. and i believe i don't need great statisticians to prove it. long time ago, i read somewhere on FF one post saying that 1000 hours forextester chart time will simply make it. i was regretful i didn't pay attention to it, lol.
so you see, having done lots of backtests/statistics in MT4, Matlab, Forextester, i switched from a quant-style trader(learn to be) to a manual trader. i leave all statistics, mathmatical behind so that now I cannot even convey my knowledge in a quantified manner. lol . but i see myself on the right path.
{quote} Which would make you wonder if perhaps they aren't basing their trading on deep intricate stats, but upon some other data that they are more aware of. Something simpler and more tangible for the everyday person, but which still seems to elude a lot of people nonetheless.
- #1,214
- Edited 11:26am Jan 7, 2014 11:15am | Edited 11:26am
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
{quote} Ok, so now also show all of the times that it doesn't reverse. Look further right in your own pic. It's not as well defined but still resembles the first half of a "U", and then it keeps on going. I mean, sure, if you run a kabillion candles of this formation through scanner and did the stats you might find some slight edge, but it'd certainly be within standard deviations or expected error levels or whatever fucking math / stat / wizardry terms I am supposed to say here to not look like a total cock. I don't think you'd find much meat in...
Its just too frequent to just ignore it, it appears almost every hour.There must be a mechanism which can detect it, take another look:
Its everywhere, and it repeats itself very frequent.So we must discuss this pattern
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
- #1,215
- Jan 7, 2014 11:17am Jan 7, 2014 11:17am
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts
- #1,216
- Jan 7, 2014 11:19am Jan 7, 2014 11:19am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: . | 4,038 Posts
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
- #1,217
- Jan 7, 2014 11:23am Jan 7, 2014 11:23am
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Forex Shaman | 1,468 Posts
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
- #1,218
- Jan 7, 2014 11:27am Jan 7, 2014 11:27am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: . | 4,038 Posts
{quote} If you worry about spread just go on higher timeframe.As for RR, thats another topic, i`m sure there is atleast 1 optimal way to trade this pattern to get positive expectancy out of it. Its just too frequent to just ignore it, it appears almost every hour.There must me a mechanism which can detect it, take another look: {image} {image} {image} Its everywhere, and it repeats itself very frequent.So we must discuss this pattern
In the end price still went nowhere in a hurry. On such a low timeframe it could be something as simple as some shitty stops hitting at once by chance of them all stacking in that location, or a few people had to go and get a sandwich for lunch so there was less liquidity than previously would have been... etc. Who knows? There are plenty of legit possibilities. Maybe Bill Gates fired someone and there was a currency conversion that needed to be done from $USD to $YOURFIRED's. On higher timeframes it could be something simple like some news causing price to push around a bit but without conviction, or people exiting their positions, and the price just filling the liquidity gap.
I mean, shit, if you can find a way to tell if it's going to reverse or continue to breakout then go for it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
- #1,219
- Jan 7, 2014 11:29am Jan 7, 2014 11:29am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #1,220
- Jan 7, 2014 11:34am Jan 7, 2014 11:34am
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 2,176 Posts