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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,121
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:33pm Jan 6, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} "Is there a standard "process" or "method" that is a universal?.....................Im not sure if I'm asking my question correctly I apologize for my "verbage" as Im not a "layman". The question doesnt envolve behind whats going on in the thread. Is there a "standard" or "universal" form of practice in which to do so?

The candle patterns are clearly defined, so you could program them, only basic math's, need to know which 1's your interested in though, as there are too many.


* No more math's tonight pls, been writing mapping software all day, the Math's part I'd been putting off
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,122
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:38pm Jan 6, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} The candle patterns are clearly defined, so you could program them, only basic math's, need to know which 1's your interested in though, as there are too many. * No more math's tonight pls, been writing mapping software all day, the Math's part I'd been putting off
Thanks, that answered my question........
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,123
  • Jan 6, 2014 4:02pm Jan 6, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting Turveyd
M1 you can see if it bounced off a price 5times, or tracked along it for 2hours, or whatever, H4 you just see it went down and back up again, detail is good.

Champ, if you haven't grasped the fact that you wouldn't be trading the H4 chart over the same time scale as the M1 chart, you are worse than nubcake lets on. You would be trading H4 on a relative basis; that is, if the move you are talking about took 20 minutes (20 M1 candles) to bounce off price 5 times, the same structural pattern/move would take roughly a week to complete on H4 charts (20 H4 candles), but would otherwise look absolutely identical in form.


I've asked you multiple times before in this thread, do you think you can distinguish between an M5 chart and an H4 chart, or any other fractal, and why? And if you can't, then everything you are saying is illogical bunk (hint: you can't, and it is).
  • #1,124
  • Jan 6, 2014 4:05pm Jan 6, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} Alright champ, so you should be able to distinguish between an M1 chart and an M10 chart and an H2 chart and a M37 chart and an M50 chart, right? After all, if your strategy only works in M1 or M5, then there must be some structural difference between the lower timeframes and the higher timeframes, correct?

Well in M1 things happen kinda live and like the candle changes every 1min

I did put if you increase the envelope sizes, it'll work for all TF's really, but not tested or interested in doing so.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,125
  • Jan 6, 2014 4:13pm Jan 6, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Well in M1 things happen kinda live and like the candle changes every 1min I did put if you increase the envelope sizes, it'll work for all TF's really, but not tested or interested in doing so.

The candle changes every one minute, yes. And on H4, the candle changes every four hours. What's your point? It doesn't matter if the candle changes every 5 days or every 30 days or every 30 seconds, you're still analyzing history and using that to react to price.


You keep insisting that for some reason M1 is better than H4, but have no logical explanation for why. I'm asking for your reasoning.
  • #1,126
  • Jan 6, 2014 4:25pm Jan 6, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} The candle changes every one minute, yes. And on H4, the candle changes every four hours. What's your point? It doesn't matter if the candle changes every 5 days or every 30 days or every 30 seconds, you're still analyzing history and using that to react to price. You keep insisting that for some reason M1 is better than H4, but have no logical explanation for why. I'm asking for your reasoning.
Doh! Cat just killed it

Errmmm well I don't want to sit here for 1 week watching H4 candles close to spot a barrier level as I call them, then place a trade and wait another 2 weeks to finally take the 3-5% profit hopefully, when I could of done it all in 30mins on M1 and made 3-5% many times over the same period!!

Kinda obvious really.

Plus also, news comes out and M1 charts move 100pips and you can jump on it and ride it for 100pips, although 100pips would happen in H4 you'd have to be trading in such a low amount as the 100pips wouldn't really make a lot of money, then you'd still be sitting around while it kinda randomly gets pulled around by news.

Do you not see this ??

Ofcourse you don't!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,127
  • Jan 6, 2014 4:43pm Jan 6, 2014 4:43pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} The candle changes every one minute, yes. And on H4, the candle changes every four hours. What's your point? It doesn't matter if the candle changes every 5 days or every 30 days or every 30 seconds, you're still analyzing history and using that to react to price. You keep insisting that for some reason M1 is better than H4, but have no logical explanation for why. I'm asking for your reasoning.

No trolling and running, why not tell us why H4 is better ??


And also which broker lets you trade of random static charts, with no price or date info on, so they look very similar ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,128
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:15pm Jan 6, 2014 5:15pm
Why do I get the feeling, I'll be asked the same question for ever more and it'll be ignored for ever more, cause they think there gaining ground.


Troll's!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,129
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:16pm Jan 6, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting Turveyd
Errmmm well I don't want to sit here for 1 week watching H4 candles close to spot a barrier level as I call them, then place a trade and wait another 2 weeks to finally take the 3-5% profit hopefully, when I could of done it all in 30mins on M1 and made 3-5% many times over the same period!! Kinda obvious really.
1) This ignores the fact that whatever longer pattern you are trading on M1 is simply part of a shorter pattern on H4 which could also theoretically be traded. 2) Why are you trading M1 or M5? Why aren't you trading 30s, or 15s, or tick charts?

Quoting Turveyd
No trolling and running, why not tell us why H4 is better ??


And also which broker lets you trade of random static charts, with no price or date info on, so they look very similar ??
Who said H4 is better? It certainly wasn't me.

I can remove all axes (including price and time) and scale all my charts relative to one another in my broker. I can also use custom timeframes, and I assure you, M1 looks no different from M23 or M69 in terms of structure.

The point of this isn't to say H4 is better than M1, or tick charts are better than M1, I was simply asking you to explain your comments that only M1 or M5 traders on this board are profitable, which is patently stupid.

But hey, you're Turveyd and you pull hundreds of pips from the market trading news on M1

Carry on.
  • #1,130
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:23pm Jan 6, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} 1) This ignores the fact that whatever longer pattern you are trading on M1 is simply part of a shorter pattern on H4 which could also theoretically be traded. 2) Why are you trading M1 or M5? Why aren't you trading 30s, or 15s, or tick charts? {quote} Who said H4 is better? It certainly wasn't me. I can remove all axes (including price and time) and scale all my charts relative to one another in my broker. I can also use custom timeframes, and I assure you, M1 looks no different from M23 or M69 in terms of structure. The point of this isn't...

Simple really!!

a) I've chatted to and met various M1 / M5 traders which are profitable and they've proved it.

b) with the exception of GDR who's really got a none TF related method, I've asked 100's of H4 traders to back up there profitable, lets have a count, what 0 + 0 again, ohhhh ZERO, not 1 has proved to me there profitable.



I'll slot you into my Troll H4 trader bin, ie Ignore bin, won't bother reading your posts again, bye bye!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,131
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:25pm Jan 6, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Doh! Cat just killed it Errmmm well I don't want to sit here for 1 week watching H4 candles close to spot a barrier level as I call them, then place a trade and wait another 2 weeks to finally take the 3-5% profit hopefully, when I could of done it all in 30mins on M1 and made 3-5% many times over the same period!! Kinda obvious really. Plus also, news comes out and M1 charts move 100pips and you can jump on it and ride it for 100pips, although 100pips would happen in H4 you'd have to be trading in such a low amount as the 100pips wouldn't...
Are you suggesting that M1 and H4 moves are similar? You are going to make much more money with much less time on H4 and up than you ever will on M1. IMHO.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,132
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:30pm Jan 6, 2014 5:30pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Are you suggesting that M1 and H4 moves are similar? You are going to make much more money with much less time on H4 and up than you ever will on M1. IMHO.

That's bad logic there mate for sure, don't buy into the H4 coolaid dude!!

If you think I'll make the same 3-5% profit, per trade regardless of M1 or H4 that I can make wayyyyy more M1 trades in a month than H4, then that's much more profit.

They may look the same after the fact, but they move very differently and the win rate potential on M1 is WAYYYY higher than on H4.

M1 gets a bad rap, cause you can lose 80% of your trades if your terrible, the same way as you can make 80% if your good, downside and upside.

Longer the TF the nearer both extremes come near a 50/50 game, great if your a loser as you'll only lose 55% ( everyone here ), crap if your a winner cause you'll only win 55%.

See it ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,133
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:37pm Jan 6, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} That's bad logic there mate for sure, don't buy into the H4 coolaid dude!! If you think I'll make the same 3-5% profit, per trade regardless of M1 or H4 that I can make wayyyyy more M1 trades in a month than H4, then that's much more profit. They may look the same after the fact, but they move very differently and the win rate potential on M1 is WAYYYY higher than on H4. M1 gets a bad rap, cause you can lose 80% of your trades if your terrible, the same way as you can make 80% if your good, downside and upside. Longer the TF the nearer both...
I have said earlier that I am a millipeder, so time frame is not relevant to me. I don't take losses either. The downside to building millipedes is that you can only take what the market gives.

The point I am making about M1 is that the moves are much smaller, and because of that you have to take more trades, which raises your overhead. A winning strategy will win on any TF, so why not lower your overhead, and take bigger chunks of profit?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,134
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:43pm Jan 6, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I have said earlier that I am a millipeder, so time frame is not relevant to me. I don't take losses either. The downside to building millipedes is that you can only take what the market gives. The point I am making about M1 is that the moves are much smaller, and because of that you have to take more trades, which raises your overhead. A winning strategy will win on any TF, so why not lower your overhead, and take bigger chunks of profit?

Cause the market does move differently M1 to H4, M1 lets you trade live action, trading the order flow which is what I do, H4 becomes a prediction game and well yeah you can't really predict H4, there are trends but there SLOW!!

More trades are good, more trades = more profit.

Yes 10%-30% of the move is wasted on Spread, spreads costs me I think it's approx $6000 over the years, as I'm approx down $2500, I'd be showing a profit if not for spread.

But M1 is tradeable at a 80% win rate, H4 isn't, simple as.

I get 100pip moves of M1 charts anyway, trading abit cowardly currently, but they are there for the taking.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,135
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:52pm Jan 6, 2014 5:52pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Cause the market does move differently M1 to H4, M1 lets you trade live action, trading the order flow which is what I do, H4 becomes a prediction game and well yeah you can't really predict H4, there are trends but there SLOW!! More trades are good, more trades = more profit. Yes 10%-30% of the move is wasted on Spread, spreads costs me I think it's approx $6000 over the years, as I'm approx down $2500, I'd be showing a profit if not for spread. But M1 is tradeable at a 80% win rate, H4 isn't, simple as. I get 100pip moves of M1 charts...
I must ask, how does the market move differently from M1 to H4? Markets are fractal in nature. You are suggesting the opposite.

How do you know without question that you are not being victimized by cognitive bias?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,136
  • Jan 6, 2014 5:58pm Jan 6, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I must ask, how does the market move differently from M1 to H4? Markets are fractal in nature. You are suggesting the opposite. How do you know without question that you are not being victimized by cognitive bias?

They casually look the same, but in reality ofcourse they behave differently, totally.

Just comparing H4 to M1 GU and they same anyway, they have areas which look the same, but over all no, but no, I have no interest in being tested, as I have ZERO interest in trading H4, I'm anti H4

And I will repeat ZERO H4 traders have proved to me there profitable, ZERO!! get the hint.


Plus I'm a programmer, so sat in front of the PC anyway all day and got multiple monitors so can work and trade, when not stressed out with upcoming deadlines!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,137
  • Jan 6, 2014 6:04pm Jan 6, 2014 6:04pm
Please remember, I don't trade of made up candle patterns, I trade of live market movement, I look at how the market is moving second to second, not just the bars.

So I almost live tick trade, but without the tick history cause screens aren't big enough.


Drop the H4, NOT interested, never will be!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,138
  • Jan 6, 2014 6:10pm Jan 6, 2014 6:10pm
Way hay, I went dancing and it was so good.
I am now being ignored by another person who I have never spoken too lol, their loss.
From what I heard the 2 plonkers (I would of said dicks) have a personality clash and maybe I may know them in reality, and perhaps if I do know them it maybe something to do with me taking a back stage and stopped trading , while they just haven't grasped how to do it yet, But boys I do teach.

Anyway PREDICTION , I cannot actually do a decent back test so am relying on simple human observation AND guys I will be placing a trade on A/U sometime...... drum roll ... it is currently just over the 20 ema and looks like it might go north (might) <<<<< some prediction lol. it should be good for 100 pips even though I cannot say how long it will take but will. and I am going off an inside bar (not sunday) lets see what happens,, I may even end up shorting it
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,139
  • Jan 6, 2014 6:15pm Jan 6, 2014 6:15pm
Quoting billytt
Way hay, I went dancing and it was so good. I am now being ignored by another person who I have never spoken too lol, their loss. From what I heard the 2 plonkers (I would of said dicks) have a personality clash and maybe I may know them in reality, and perhaps if I do know them it maybe something to do with me taking a back stage and stopped trading , while they just haven't grasped how to do it yet, But boys I do teach. Anyway PREDICTION , I cannot actually do a decent back test so am relying on simple human observation AND guys I will be placing...

100pips so H1 or H4 trade then ?? allowing for standard convention.

H1 and H4 downtrend for ages, might be turning up be a week or 2 before I can confirm on H1 LOL, so 52% chance it'll go south before it goes up 100pips.


You think I'm joking, ohhhh I can trade H4, I just think it's ridiculous!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,140
  • Jan 6, 2014 6:18pm Jan 6, 2014 6:18pm
I will be trading a/u off the daily uk time
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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