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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,101
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:35pm Jan 6, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Good Thanks for the clarification. So I suppose your test was able to check expectancy and confirm that it is positive?
Yep every useful info is in the spreadsheet, you can see on which pairs it worked and on which not

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} If SL is big, then why so worried about spread it's not a SL worry, just a profit reducing worry and it's only 1 - 5 pips tops, your H1 so what 30pip target. Try changing it to exit at the high of the bar LOL ( This is a joke, we wish ) Can't you add some trend following logic, filter out trades from that, then add in some logic where it can hold more than 1 bar maybe ??
You dont understand, the main thing that closed the orders was the OrderClose() function which get triggered when the 2nd bar opened after the hanging man, to close the profit or loss of the 1st candle.

The SL and TP was just set to a big level to avoid crashes and big spikes which happened a few times during 20 years : 2000 stock crash, and the 2008 crash.

It was just an emergency stop/TP, otherwise i would have too huge positions there which would distort the data, and even in the real world who the heck would want to trade a crash, if you get it wrong it destroys your entire account in 1 trade:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,102
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:38pm Jan 6, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yep every useful info is in the spreadsheet, you can see on which pairs it worked and on which not {quote} You dont understand, the main thing that closed the orders was the OrderClose() function which get triggered when the 2nd bar opened after the hanging man, to close the profit or loss of the 1st candle. The SL and TP was just set to a big level to avoid crashes and big spikes which happened a few times during 20 years : 2000 stock crash, and the 2008 crash. It was just an emergency stop/TP, otherwise i would have too huge positions...
Somehow I've missed the spreadsheet. Checking it. Thanks.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,103
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:39pm Jan 6, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Stocks trends are stronger, multiple day single directional moves, not so bashed around from news all over the place as Forex.
Not just that, but in stock markets the speculators are the main market movers, where in the forex market the general economy is, the speculators in forex are in minority.

The FX is a 5 trillion $ market, speculators make up only a fraction of it, maybe 1 trillion if we include big banks but no more i guess.

The other think is that stock markets represent only 1 stock (except the indexes), while the FX is the ratio of 2 markets so again, the down movement in a stock market causes panic, whereas a down movement in an FX market is neutral, and so on

So the point is that the stock and FX market are very very very very very very very very very different from eachother
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,104
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:42pm Jan 6, 2014 2:42pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yep every useful info is in the spreadsheet, you can see on which pairs it worked and on which not {quote} You dont understand, the main thing that closed the orders was the OrderClose() function which get triggered when the 2nd bar opened after the hanging man, to close the profit or loss of the 1st candle. The SL and TP was just set to a big level to avoid crashes and big spikes which happened a few times during 20 years : 2000 stock crash, and the 2008 crash. It was just an emergency stop/TP, otherwise i would have too huge positions...

So what's your Win Rate cause obviously they'll close at a loss, your not leaving anything on the table at all.

Any live testing demo or $$'s yet ??

if so what's the average profit after spread ?

Also, what is your average loss with spread ?

Atleast it would back test well as 100% objective!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,105
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:45pm Jan 6, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Not just that, but in stock markets the speculators are the main market movers, where in the forex market the general economy is, the speculators in forex are in minority. The FX is a 5 trillion $ market, speculators make up only a fraction of it, maybe 1 trillion if we include big banks but no more i guess. The other think is that stock markets represent only 1 stock (except the indexes), while the FX is the ratio of 2 markets so again, the down movement in a stock market causes panic, whereas a down movement in an FX market is neutral,...

I used to like trading Nasdaq stocks, via DATEK many many many years ago, like 13 or so, I like having 4 pairs and day trading them, Stocks was a full time job, watching all day ( nice hours no am's LOL ), then at night I'd run a screener dump it all into my computer system, look for various things ( volume spikes, EMA crosses ), flag which stocks I have interest in and check literally 100's of charts to get read for the next day.


Burn't out comes to mind, was profitable for a few years though.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,106
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:46pm Jan 6, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Nub's trying to prove he has a sense of humour. LOL Kanzler had the same opinion as you and others, they've all come around to understanding they've just misunderstood me, how about dropping the bias and calling a truce here ?? We are actually on the same page trying to rid the newbies of reading mindless BS after all.
No. I have no misunderstanding. You aren't on the same page as anyone. You ARE the mindless BS. Either you get smarter, or get quieter. No other choice will make you more palatable. Your presence in every thread is counterproductive and a nuisance at a minimum and is offensive to people who passed the third grade.

I think someone else was right and Red has just run-away from this train-wreck.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,107
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:47pm Jan 6, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So what's your Win Rate cause obviously they'll close at a loss, your not leaving anything on the table at all. Any live testing demo or $$'s yet ?? if so what's the average profit after spread ? Also, what is your average loss with spread ? Atleast it would back test well as 100% objective!!

I dont understand what you mean by that, i told you that i dont use that particular pattern.

Besides i didnt tested it with MT4 i have my own strategy tester to test candlesticks.It is almost as accurate as an MT4 test, but it only generates that data which you see in the spreadsheet.

I didnt calculated the profit,loss, etc because its useless, the expectancy is the most important info there, besides its too hard to reconstruct entirely the MT4 tester, the margin requirement, position sizes are hard to convert always on different pairs so i`ve simplified it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,108
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:48pm Jan 6, 2014 2:48pm
Just checked the spreadsheet. No surprises here. The patterns don't seem tradeable imho as expectancy is never higher than 1.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,109
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:50pm Jan 6, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting vox dei
Just checked the spreadsheet. No surprises here. The patterns don't seem tradeable imho as expectancy is never higher than 1.

Its higher than 0, thats already something, the best pair on H1 it had 0.1 i guess, meaning that for every 1€ position size you profit on average 10 eurocent.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,110
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:52pm Jan 6, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Its higher than 0, thats already something, the best one on H1 it had 0.1 i guess, meaning that for every 1€ position size you profit on average 10 eurocent.
Proximus, that's pretty random in my book. I don't think these patterns are of much use on their own.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,111
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:53pm Jan 6, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} No. I have no misunderstanding. You aren't on the same page as anyone. You ARE the mindless BS. Either you get smarter, or get quieter. No other choice will make you more palatable. Your presence in every thread is counterproductive and a nuisance at a minimum and is offensive to people who passed the third grade. I think someone else was right and Red has just run-away from this train-wreck.

a) RED would of banned me, if he had an issue, the only trolling going on in here, is by YOU and Magix!!

b) Every thread ?? I've barely posted in any other thread but this 1 and my journal so that would be BS then.



So basically, you ( Being Not Profitable ) , Disagree with me on how to trade ( and everyone else, your way or no way ofcourse ), sorry although you seem reasonibly intelligent if not for being totally pig headed, I've seen no evidence to believe your profitable, so your opinion to me is ? absolutely nothing.

Add in the fact, that nobody likes you and you spend your days trolling and swearing at everyone, aren't you actually describing yourself here ??

Or is this a grudge from another forum ?? cause this isn't very logical at all, is it really.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,112
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:57pm Jan 6, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Its higher than 0, thats already something, the best pair on H1 it had 0.1 i guess, meaning that for every 1€ position size you profit on average 10 eurocent.

That low and barely over 50% win rate I bet, maybe less allowing for your spread issues / concerns, mission abort I reckon, find something new and start again.


Shame easy to code!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,113
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:11pm Jan 6, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Proximus, that's pretty random in my book. I don't think these patterns are of much use on their own.
... the conclusion met by most people who run the numbers on patterns, is it not? If you don't test in a defined, prolonged, trend then it all comes out in the wash as a cost in the end. If people could know the start and end of a trend then this whole thing would be a lot easier and one could enter just about anywhere and still come out alive in the end.

Quoting Turveyd
derp
Is this the playground where everyone has to be liked else they'll, like, totes not get invited to the birthday party? Really, how pathetic are you? I'm not here to make friends or be liked. I'm here for the, desperately rare, thoughtful or insightful posts. The fact that you are taking things in this "nobody likes you" direction (which I don't think you quite understand as well as you wish to believe you do, like everything else in your life) just shows your juvenile side, as if it was some surprise to see anyway. You are just so... desperate! Ugh.

Keep trying to bend reality around you to suit your fantasies and delude yourself some more. It's about the only thing you have proven to be somewhat competent at. Please, do go on some more.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,114
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:13pm Jan 6, 2014 3:13pm
I have an “Off topic” question (I think) I’m hoping someone one with knowledge in math could help. As I read the thread I keep asking myself a question, but I can’t & don’t know the first way of going about finding the answer. Nor do I want to put much effort in it, I’m not grail seeking, not trying to make a point. Nor am I a mathematician,nor supporting someone else theories. I’m asking for my own curiosity. “Can you even “quantify” chart patterns???” Pattern recognition imo is very subjective; no two people will perceive the same patterns the same. That’s why I can only just ASSUME patterns aren’t quantifiable. Imo if you can’t quantify something, what’s the point. But it’s a simple question, is there a very “elementary” answer someone could provide. I’m not into pattern analysis, it’s of little relevance to me. But is there a mathematical way to “quantify” a pattern? I don’t care to know the math. I’m just assuming it’s not possible, is there answer that would either support or discount my assumption without you having to go to much effort to do so?………………………….
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,115
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:21pm Jan 6, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} ... the conclusion met by most people who run the numbers on patterns, is it not? If you don't test in a defined, prolonged, trend then it all comes out in the wash as a cost in the end. If people could know the start and end of a trend then this whole thing would be a lot easier and one could enter just about anywhere and still come out alive in the end. {quote} Is this the playground where everyone has to be liked else they'll, like, totes not get invited to the birthday party? Really, how pathetic are you? I'm not here to make friends...

Your the 1 continuing TGM's work and trying to run me off the site, there is no trolling going on here, it's called a heated debate, yes you and magix cause I said I didn't like MTF stuff he's into has his ass in his hand, big whooop!!

No everyone thinks your just a troll, so all of above applies to you.

End of the day, my method is valid as it's making money, you've not even posted anywhere I've seen what your method is, so I win!!

So learn to take a joke, drop this me bashing and multiple screens of mis informing, In your opinion BS ( I really didn't read it ) most likely and just go away and stop trashing threads, with your personal attacks.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,116
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:22pm Jan 6, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting mzvega
I have an “Off topic” question (I think) I’m hoping someone one with knowledge in math could help. As I read the thread I keep asking myself a question, but I can’t & don’t know the first way of going about finding the answer. Nor do I want to put much effort in it, I’m not grail seeking, not trying to make a point. Nor am I a mathematician,nor supporting someone else theories. I’m asking for my own curiosity. “Can you even “quantify” chart patterns???” Pattern recognition imo is very subjective; no two people will perceive the same patterns the...

Single candles like Proxy is doing yes, but that's about it sorry!!

IMHO!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,117
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:28pm Jan 6, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} ... the conclusion met by most people who run the numbers on patterns, is it not? If you don't test in a defined, prolonged, trend then it all comes out in the wash as a cost in the end. If people could know the start and end of a trend then this whole thing would be a lot easier and one could enter just about anywhere and still come out alive in the end.
Yes, you are right.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,118
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:28pm Jan 6, 2014 3:28pm
Oh gee tur got me. He wins, apparently. Hurr durr. Can't read the words presented on the pages to him by anyone, and can't write a sentence to save his life, or panda's. But, he wins! Wooo! What a fucking champ.

I'm off to bed. You guys can deal with this clown while I'm gone. Just keep your posts under 200 words else it takes him too long to check all of the "big words" in his dictionary and thesaurus and he can't deal with that.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,119
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:32pm Jan 6, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Single candles like Proxy is doing yes, but that's about it sorry!! IMHO!!
"Is there a standard "process" or "method" that is a universal?.....................Im not sure if I'm asking my question correctly I apologize for my "verbage" as Im not a "layman". The question doesnt envolve behind whats going on in the thread. Is there a "standard" or "universal" form of practice in which to do so?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,120
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:32pm Jan 6, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting nubcake
Oh gee tur got me. He wins, apparently. Hurr durr. Can't read the words presented on the pages to him by anyone, and can't write a sentence to save his life, or panda's. But, he wins! Wooo! What a fucking champ. I'm off to bed. You guys can deal with this clown while I'm gone. Just keep your posts under 200 words else it takes him too long to check all of the "big words" in his dictionary and thesaurus and he can't deal with that.

Really is no point at all, trying to reason with you is there, ahhhhhh you upset cause I didn't bother to read, what you think about me, I don't care!!

Grow up and move on, although not to troll anyone else!!

Sorry if I slept with your wife ( hey it happens, might explain is attitude )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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