why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 55 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,081
  • Jan 6, 2014 1:48pm Jan 6, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} You didn't take NOTHING on this hypothetical trade. It too is all bullshit...and doesn't even meet with the criteria you have set for testing, not to mention, that by simply dragging and dropping your trade onto the chart, we could actually use this as evidence...but that won't happen, because your mythical trade didn't happen. .
this could have ended very fast....by actually showing the trade
....or not...

fun time
  • #1,082
  • Jan 6, 2014 1:49pm Jan 6, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Donated to charity of there choice LOL isn't that what most scammers say ?? Find a method that lets you use SL's and get back to me!!
You don't have to believe me.

Look at the screen shots, dipstick.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=456580

Because you have no concept of trading, or markets, there is nothing you can view that will make sense.

Again...you pathetic troll..

I am done with you.

Have fun filling another thread with your worthless crap.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,083
  • Jan 6, 2014 1:50pm Jan 6, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} This guy shows that hammers/pinbar are usually a... continuation pattern! (just another lower low) http://intelligenttradingtech.blogsp...k-pattern.html
IDK, i only tested it on the next candle, so what comes after that, who knows and who cares, if the next candle after that is secured then thats good enough too.

If i segmented the price by candles and tested each one of them then according to my findings, continuations didnt existed at the next candle, because the next candle will most likely be the opposite color than the previous one.This makes sense, as the RED-GREEN candles are distributed it is very likely that after 1 color the other will come, so by this logic only reversal strategies work, or at least in the 1 candle type trading methods, it has a higher probability.

Tell me any pair and i will run any candlestick type analysis on in if you dont belive me, i designed a full software just to analyse sticks.

BTW did you read my answer to your post ?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,084
  • Jan 6, 2014 1:50pm Jan 6, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} You don't have to believe me. Look at the screen shots, dipstick. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=456580 Because you have no concept of trading, or markets, there is nothing you can view that will make sense. Again...you pathetic troll.. I am done with you. Have fun filling another thread with your worthless crap.

Does it use SL's if not, not interested!!


Go away troll / Scammer!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,085
  • Jan 6, 2014 1:54pm Jan 6, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting bradu
{quote} this could have ended very fast....by actually showing the trade ....or not... fun time

Didn't have adobe open at the time and was busy, I posted GA turned down, short the next up, NU uptrend and possibly EJ turning down to can't remember.

If you check the time, it was on the break out of my white range, then my method is basically trade with that trend, shorting as near to the upper yellow envelope as possible, as shown in the chart.

If you do a test on it yourself, you'll amazingly see a 80% win rate.



Which as that works, means you guessed it, the market is not RANDOM!!

Currently, GA flat, EJ uptrend, GU flat, NU just dipping under, could be setting up for a trend turn to down. Don't short here anyway SL to large.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,086
  • Jan 6, 2014 1:57pm Jan 6, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} IDK, i only tested it on the next candle, so what comes after that, who knows and who cares, if the next candle after that is secured then thats good enough too. If i segmented the price by candles and tested each one of them then according to my findings, continuations didnt existed at the next candle, because the next candle will most likely be the opposite color than the previous one.This makes sense, as the RED-GREEN candles are distributed it is very likely that after 1 color the other will come, so by this logic only reversal strategies...

What I don't understand is, you did that, you made the Stat's which proved the best you can get is 54% and only for the next candle so likely not a lot of profit in it, I understand you've invested time / energy in it so you don't want to let it go, but logically you've proved they don't work, but your still using them ??

Makes NO sense at all, when I test something and it fails, I dump it and try something else, been doing this for AGES.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,087
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:06pm Jan 6, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} What I don't understand is, you did that, you made the Stat's which proved the best you can get is 54% and only for the next candle so likely not a lot of profit in it, I understand you've invested time / energy in it so you don't want to let it go, but logically you've proved they don't work, but your still using them ?? Makes NO sense at all, when I test something and it fails, I dump it and try something else, been doing this for AGES.
They do work theoretically , but i never tested them in a forward test or a demo, there were just too many other patterns and honestly i`ve found way better ones than the inverted hammer & hanging man.So i cant waste time on that.I work with other ones, i just posted it here to give you and the other readers a hint about how powerful patterns are.

And theoretically they would work, but the only thing that can destroy it is the spread & slippage of the broker, my candlestick simulator doesnt include fluctuating spread only fixed, so i used my daily average spread which is 0.9 pips.Substracted 0.9 pips from the reward and there you go.However if you have other broker then nobody knows, or the slippage.

It is very probable that a hammer candle could be a widened spread situation because it looks like a "news candle" so every hammer candle has lets say 1.5 pips.If this is the case then you are right the pattern doesnt work.

Now you understand why i emphasized so much on the spread, because the pattern itself is ok, because it contains information about the near future price, but if the spread fu** you up then its good as nothing.

So everyone who would like to trade patterns, should record the daily average spread of their broker and how the spread fluctuates before trading patterns.I have made a thread about this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post7179571
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,088
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:14pm Jan 6, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} They do work theoretically , but i never tested them in a forward test, there were just too many patterns and honestly i`ve found way better ones than the inverted hammer & hanging man.So i cant waste time on that.I work with other ones, i just posted it here to give you and the other readers a hint about how powerful patterns are. And theoretically they would work, but the only thing that can destroy it is the spread & slippage of the broker, my candlestick simulator doesnt include fluctuating spread only fixed, so i used my daily average...

So that's why your interest in spread, you've had spread widening take out your SL's to often I bet.

I may trade M1 but I don't use a SL tight enough to have to worry about Spread size, don't trade news times so it's pretty much static to me anyway. As above I go for 35pips tad longer and it hit 50pips, but patience is getting there!

going for 1.5pips looks way to scalpy for me, or am I reading that wrong ??



Definately too thin for me, I've abandoned profitable method's cause there not profitable enough and started from scratch a few times,grail or nothing for me.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,089
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:14pm Jan 6, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} IDK, i only tested it on the next candle, so what comes after that, who knows and who cares, if the next candle after that is secured then thats good enough too. If i segmented the price by candles and tested each one of them then according to my findings, continuations didnt existed at the next candle, because the next candle will most likely be the opposite color than the previous one.This makes sense, as the RED-GREEN candles are distributed it is very likely that after 1 color the other will come, so by this logic only reversal strategies...
With all due respect, if I understood correctly through your testing you got to know the win ratio% without knowing the actual R:R. That being the case the info is useless.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,090
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:19pm Jan 6, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} If you do a test on it yourself, you'll amazingly see a 80% win rate.
im below 80% even in hindsight...

on a serious note, is anywhere explain your system ?
from those pics i cant really understand much, barelly see the price..
  • #1,091
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:21pm Jan 6, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} With all due respect, if I understood correctly through your testing you got to know the win ratio% without knowing the actual R:R. That being the case the info is useless.


The RR ratio is the size of the next candle, so its a dynamic one, we enter at the next candle open and exit at the close no matter what, be it profitable or not doesnt matter, thats how i backtested it.

So that is why in the spreadsheet you see so varying RR sizes from 0.5 to all over 0.8 or more, it totally depends on the next candles size, i closed all orders with the OrderClose() function

SL and TP was only set at to a big value in case of extreme slippage, but in all tests the SL and TP was hit only 2 or 3 times, especially @ 2000 and 2008 crashes, other that that every trade was closed with the orderclose.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,092
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:22pm Jan 6, 2014 2:22pm
Also, results are dependent on the design of the test. Just look at your results (reversal), the results PipMeUP showed (continuation), and Tom Bulkowski's results (mixed).

Bulkowski:

Hanged man: http://thepatternsite.com/HangingMan.html
Hammer: http://thepatternsite.com/Hammer.html
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,093
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:24pm Jan 6, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting bradu
{quote} im below 80% even in hindsight... on a serious note, is anywhere explain your system ? from those pics i cant really understand much, barelly see the price..
Price? What are you talking about? Tur thinks he is playing pokemon.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,094
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:24pm Jan 6, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting vox dei
Also, results are dependent on the design of the test. Just look at your results (reversal), the results PipMeUP showed (continuation), and Tom Bulkowski's results (mixed). Bulkowski: Hanged man: http://thepatternsite.com/HangingMan.html Hammer: http://thepatternsite.com/Hammer.html

Yes i used almost the same method as bulkowsky but i used a dynamic exit, which only depended on the candle size.He used an ATR type exit.

But i dont find his results reliable, i read his book, but the main issue i find is that he mostly analyzed stock and futures markets, which is very very very very different from forex, in terms of pattern trading atleast.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,095
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:25pm Jan 6, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting bradu
{quote} im below 80% even in hindsight... on a serious note, is anywhere explain your system ? from those pics i cant really understand much, barelly see the price..

here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...334438&page=82

Read the post with the chart attached, the template is a bit lower, M1 strictly ( although if you widen the ranges it'll work on any TF really )


Ramping upto full time useage and testing still to build confidence!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,096
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:26pm Jan 6, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} The RR ratio is the size of the next candle, so its a dynamic one, we enter at the next candle open and exit at the close no matter what, be it profitable or not doesnt matter, thats how i backtested it. So that is why in the spreadsheet you see so varying RR sizes from 0.5 to all over 0.8 or more, it totally depends on the next candles size, i closed all orders with the OrderClose() function SL and TP was only set at to a big value in case of extreme slippage, but in all tests the SL and TP was hit only 2 or 3 times, especially @ 2000...
Good Thanks for the clarification.

So I suppose your test was able to check expectancy and confirm that it is positive?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #1,097
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:28pm Jan 6, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} The RR ratio is the size of the next candle, so its a dynamic one, we enter at the next candle open and exit at the close no matter what, be it profitable or not doesnt matter, thats how i backtested it. So that is why in the spreadsheet you see so varying RR sizes from 0.5 to all over 0.8 or more, it totally depends on the next candles size, i closed all orders with the OrderClose() function SL and TP was only set at to a big value in case of extreme slippage, but in all tests the SL and TP was hit only 2 or 3 times, especially @ 2000...
If SL is big, then why so worried about spread it's not a SL worry, just a profit reducing worry and it's only 1 - 5 pips tops, your H1 so what 30pip target.

Try changing it to exit at the high of the bar LOL ( This is a joke, we wish )

Can't you add some trend following logic, filter out trades from that, then add in some logic where it can hold more than 1 bar maybe ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,098
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:30pm Jan 6, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Price? What are you talking about? Tur thinks he is playing pokemon.

Nub's trying to prove he has a sense of humour. LOL


Kanzler had the same opinion as you and others, they've all come around to understanding they've just misunderstood me, how about dropping the bias and calling a truce here ??

We are actually on the same page trying to rid the newbies of reading mindless BS after all.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,099
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:32pm Jan 6, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote}y analyzed stock and futures markets, which is very very very very different from forex, in terms of pattern trading atleast.
Stocks trends are stronger, multiple day single directional moves, not so bashed around from news all over the place as Forex.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,100
  • Jan 6, 2014 2:33pm Jan 6, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes i used almost the same method as bulkowsky but i used a dynamic exit, which only depended on the candle size.He used an ATR type exit. But i dont find his results reliable, i read his book, but the main issue i find is that he mostly analyzed stock and futures markets, which is very very very very different from forex, in terms of pattern trading atleast.
Yes, one needs to be careful with generalization of conclusions. Different markets indeed. Also, the fact that Bulkowski's analysis focused so heavily on stocks and mostly during bull market for instance could be used as an argument to explain as to why both patterns favor upside.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
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