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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,861
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:27am Nov 28, 2013 9:27am
Quoting mt2
{quote} Hi Dave, did you take entry off 15 min chart. Entry on 1Hr per rules would be above 1.4944?
Yes 15 min.
  • #6,862
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:47am Nov 28, 2013 9:47am
Quoting Vantage
Bought euraud 1.4888 with a bit of a base forming, Asian session low has held for the last 11 hrs or so. 1hr inside candle with an upper wick. There is a problem at 1.4930 where we fell from this morning. Will post charts as usual if trade pushes up in resumption of trend, not giving this one much room as we are in the resistance area (its a large one 1.4900-1.5030).
Knocking on the door of Y's highs. With the US hol's and a storm here decided to exit at +70.

2 days 2 trend trades +180 pips, I'll take that any day (or 2) of the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,863
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:15am Nov 29, 2013 5:15am
Hi Dave,

I know Friday afternoon not a great time to trade, but Eur/Aud, gave a signal on 1 Hr timeframe. At previous support of 1.4920. IB followed by Bullish Engulfing, which is the signal candle.

I am unable to post charts today.

Regards
  • #6,864
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:22am Nov 29, 2013 5:22am
Quoting mt2
Hi Dave, I know Friday afternoon not a great time to trade, but Eur/Aud, gave a signal on 1 Hr timeframe. I am unable to post charts today. Regards
Yes it did, I'm not in and Mrs V hasn't expressed any interest. Nice retrace back to the US close lows a 3 bar reversal, morning star pattern back into trend.

A trade that the EA would not have picked up because of the MACD histo filter. It does make me wonder if I should have amended the 3 bar reversal buy definition to close higher than previous 2 candle closes and close above the prev candle high.

Anyway a good 3 bar reversal back into trend, heres the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,865
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:41am Nov 29, 2013 5:41am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Yes it did, I'm not in and Mrs V hasn't expressed any interest. Nice retrace back to the US close lows a 3 bar reversal, morning star pattern back into trend. A trade that the EA would not have picked up because of the MACD histo filter. It does make me wonder if I should have amended the 3 bar reversal buy definition to close higher than previous 2 candle closes and close above the prev candle high. Anyway a good 3 bar reversal back into trend, heres the chart. {image}
Just got an sms from Mrs V she is in at 1.4962.

Won't give much room as its fri pm, in and around Y's high, the run up is now 950 pips and we are in a major resistance area from Aug. If it goes it goes if its out at BE so be it and if it goes after we're out at BE so be it. Due to the aforementioned reasons this is not the time or place to be putting 40 or 50 hard won pips at risk. If you haven't made some money after a 950 pip trend move leaving a trade exposed right at the end trading into the major resistance level is not the place to start.

D chart added, it should clearly illustrate the above.

She is out at BE.

So BE it having made that decision theres no regrets if it does go up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,866
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:59am Nov 29, 2013 5:59am
Forgot to mention Y closed a hanging man http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/1...esistance.html .
  • #6,867
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:39am Dec 4, 2013 3:39am
Usd Jpy

Took this trade, daily has still managed to close above 8LWMA. Daily formed a large bearish outside bar, which concerns me. Today forming an IB. Hourly has closed back above 8 and 32 LWMA with a strong bar with no wick. I entered at the close of that bar.

Comments welcomed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,868
  • Dec 4, 2013 6:30am Dec 4, 2013 6:30am
Quoting mt2
Usd Jpy Took this trade, daily has still managed to close above 8LWMA. Daily formed a large bearish outside bar, which concerns me. Today forming an IB. Hourly has closed back above 8 and 32 LWMA with a strong bar with no wick. I entered at the close of that bar. Comments welcomed. {image}
Price struggled yesterday at the resistance level, top from May '13 (body high week of 12th). Its run up 500 pips in Nov to the R level. As you mentioned the D outside bar is a concern. When you put the 3 together you must ask how much rope you'll give the trade.

This is pretty much the same situation we had last week on a trade and we were lucky enough to have exited at BE.
  • #6,869
  • Edited Dec 5, 2013 1:51am Dec 4, 2013 8:24am | Edited Dec 5, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Price struggled yesterday at the resistance level, top from May '13 (body high week of 12th). Its run up 500 pips in Nov to the R level. As you mentioned the D outside bar is a concern. When you put the 3 together you must ask how much rope you'll give the trade. This is pretty much the same situation we had last week on a trade and we were lucky enough to have exited at BE.
Hi Dave,

Thanks for the feedback. (I am still in, but have narrowed my stop considerably).

OUT AT -14

I notice that is price stays the way it is that the EurJpy will close under the daily 8LWMA. Your 4 -7 day trend reversal looks to be playing out. May be some opportunities there after a massive run up.

Regards

Martin
  • #6,870
  • Edited 1:59am Dec 13, 2013 1:43am | Edited 1:59am
We have been very quiet in Dec, one of Mrs V's sisters has been extremely ill and passed away. Mrs V will be out of action for a little while still (don't ever try trading when you have problems etc in your life) and in this instance some things are just not that important by comparison.

I took this one on aud. A classic example where different strategies give different results. A D MACD cross strategy would have seen a buy signal and a loss. A D chart 20/50 ma strategy would be showing this as a solid downtrend.

Based on our view we did have a solid buy signal on D formed over the last week. A 3 day reversal morning star pattern, RSI divergence and then a cross higher. Thankfully we are allowed 4 hr signals at SR levels that go contrary to this D view. Firstly the solid D candle close on 10 Dec did not follow through higher, an initial warning (not one close above the 1hr 8lwma on 11th so very weak that day). Price moved up to the Dec high and gave an evening star pattern on 4hr for a sell back into the downtrend. Exited for +175 when we got close to the Aug D candle body lows. Yes there might be some more in this but that's fine.
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  • #6,871
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:21am Jan 6, 2014 9:21am
You never know who will win the battle of trend v support/resistance.

Our 1st trade of the year.

EURAUD D closing strongly lower into the 5-10 Dec highs. 4hr higher low this morning bought at 1.5195. Will post charts if we follow through.
  • #6,872
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:27am Jan 6, 2014 9:27am
Quoting Vantage
You never know who will win the battle of trend v support/resistance. Our 1st trade of the year. EURAUD D closing strongly lower into the 5-10 Dec highs. 4hr higher low this morning bought at 1.5195. Will post charts if we follow through.
welcome back Vantage, happy New Year
tradewith60
  • #6,873
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:41am Jan 6, 2014 9:41am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} welcome back Vantage, happy New Year
Cheers 60 minuteman, right back at ya, heres to a stunning 2014.

I've seen your focus on 4hr looking for longer running trades and, for what its worth, that's the space we are at now also. We have had some very high % win rate months with this in mind (D trend or reversals from true D SR levels) even if this has not been a high frequency system and now the goal is to stack trades in the bigger D trend. The numbers on a good trading pair (EURAUD ) are very good.
  • #6,874
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:57am Jan 6, 2014 9:57am
A couple of recent blog posts on the trading basics http://www.vantagefx.blogspot.com/20...ading-101.html and http://www.vantagefx.blogspot.com/20...ading-101.html

Our above trade was CT to the D so it gets a little more scrutiny than a trend trade. At the moment we are struggling with Fri's London open lower high at 1.5230.
  • #6,875
  • Jan 6, 2014 10:18am Jan 6, 2014 10:18am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Cheers 60 minuteman, right back at ya, heres to a stunning 2014. I've seen your focus on 4hr looking for longer running trades and, for what its worth, that's the space we are at now also. We have had some very high % win rate months with this in mind (D trend or reversals from true D SR levels) even if this has not been a high frequency system and now the goal is to stack trades in the bigger D trend. The numbers on a good trading pair (EURAUD ) are very good.
excellent stuff Vantage, I have found a few un-expected advantages of holding trades longer, you not only get the bigger RR trades but you also get stacks of orders when a powerful trend takes place, just having 3 positions in the market can really pay big if the market drops all week...

Anyway, good luck with the EA trade im in it too
tradewith60
  • #6,876
  • Jan 7, 2014 7:21am Jan 7, 2014 7:21am
Just did a revision of 1st post which more accurately reflects what we are focused on now as opposed to the scalping strategies at the start.
  • #6,877
  • Edited 6:10am Jan 8, 2014 5:12am | Edited 6:10am
Quoting Vantage
You never know who will win the battle of trend v support/resistance. Our 1st trade of the year. EURAUD D closing strongly lower into the 5-10 Dec highs. 4hr higher low this morning bought at 1.5195. Will post charts if we follow through.
We have exited this trade made some pips but no massive run, so not fussed about posting a chart. As far as we are concerned pa is not confirming the move up so we have exited and sold EURAUD.

D tested the 23 Dec low resistance level, closed with an upper wick below its 8lwma, RSI still below 50 level and has not crossed its sma. Our 4hr CT buy, see above, has not confirmed on D as a true change in trend. 4hr gave a higher low from Asian session this morning but no follow through higher. A quick run out to shops meant we sold just before close of last 4hr/1hr candles, entry off a nice lh 30 min close little/no lower wick at 1.5250.

We have gone below the Asian lows so hopefully this move has a little more in it. As usual will post chart if move becomes worthwhile.
  • #6,878
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:12am Jan 8, 2014 6:12am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} We have exited this trade made some pips but no massive run, so not fussed about posting a chart. As far as we are concerned pa is not confirming the move up so we have exited and sold EURAUD. D tested the 23 Dec low resistance level, closed with an upper wick below its 8lwma, RSI still below 50 level and has not crossed its sma. Our 4hr CT buy, see above, has not confirmed on D as a true change in trend. 4hr gave a higher low from Asian session this morning but no follow through higher. A quick run out to shops meant we sold just before...

I trust the 1hr doji is just a typical pause/weak candle pre US open and we will continue the move down shortly.
  • #6,879
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:38pm Jan 12, 2014 9:38pm
Posted on blog yesterday see link http://www.vantagefx.blogspot.com/20...uary-2014.html. Had no clue about ej but it gave a lower high on 1hr at Asian open. EURAUD at a support area but hoping this will fail after the D lower high, neg close 3 bar reversal. Sells at 1.5250 and 1.5211.
  • #6,880
  • Jan 13, 2014 2:30am Jan 13, 2014 2:30am
In addition to the above euraud sells now sold gbpaud 1.8252.

D closed negative, 3 bar reversal, lower high, RSI crossed below 50 level. 1hr big move lower this morning Asian open then some small candles, 1hr lower high and waited for the lows to clear. Target at the moment 1.5 x adr at 1.7990 but that's open to change. Will post charts if things play out.
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