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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,001
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:38am Jan 6, 2014 8:38am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} But we've established Candles are randomly formed, they really are, but your still trying to predict the market based on single candles, you CAN'T, they are RANDOM move away from candles. Market is order based, 1000's of monkeys pulling it around all over the place, so yes WAY to strict. Unpredictability isn't random also.
Not all sticks are random, thats the point here, have you forgot that a stick in a higher timeframe represents an entire move & a big structure at a lower one?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,002
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:41am Jan 6, 2014 8:41am
Quoting billytt
getting back to predicting... am I right in thinking that the idea of this thread is to generate a forward looking chart and then trade off it as in PREDICTION. Or shall I take some medication and have a lie down for saying something totally stupid
redlion wanted to know why people like you believe that. Why do you believe that doji, or pin bars, or bullish engulfing bars, or inside bars, or three black crows, or dark cloud cover, or hammers, or head and shoulders, or wave 3's, or ......well you get the drift.

Why do you believe that any of that matters, especially when there seems to be no stats to back any of that stuff up?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,003
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:41am Jan 6, 2014 8:41am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Maybe 5% is ok, but 10% is just too much, what if you'll get to 1 million, would you trade 100k positions the same way as you were trading 100$ with 1000$ account. I stick to 1% but only because drawdowns, because i admit my strategy is not the perfect one and in some cases i will have more consecutive losses than the average, in these periods the drawdowns could reach even 15%, its not a uniform growth, so because of this i will limit my risk. My system can get 10 losses in a row, although the chance of that is very small, but i dont want...

10 losses in a row are possible, but 10 profits in a row are also possible, on 6 wins in a row currently although all small, stop focusing on the losing part, focus on trading better.

I covered the 1Mil in a earlier post, to trade the same % risk approx here with $500, with $100K I'd have to trade at $200 per pip, my broker would likely break that into 20 x $10 pp orders, completely unmanageable, $200 per pip and 200 orders nearing the 1Mil, max I can trade at then is $20 per pip, therefore from $10K area, my % risk and gain drops off rapidly.

Casino, is gambling, Trading if your doing it right is not, there is a difference.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,004
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:42am Jan 6, 2014 8:42am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Not all sticks are random, thats the point here, have you forgot that a stick in a higher timeframe represents an entire move & a big structure at a lower one?

Magix did provide some compelling evidence of that, I must admit.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,005
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:42am Jan 6, 2014 8:42am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I believe all price fluctuation on the short term is random.

I wouldn't be making money if that was true!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,006
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:43am Jan 6, 2014 8:43am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} redlion wanted to know why people like you believe that. Why do you believe that doji, or pin bars, or bullish engulfing bars, or inside bars, or three black crows, or dark cloud cover, or hammers, or head and shoulders, or wave 3's, or ......well you get the drift. Why do you believe that any of that matters, especially when there seems to be no stats to back any of that stuff up?
Doji's are random, that i agree with.But there are pattern which are not, a hanging man carries information about the future price, thats a fact.I will prove it soon once i find my research on my other pc.I didnt really used it much, because the edge was really small, but i`m pretty sure it was not random.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,007
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:45am Jan 6, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Not all sticks are random, thats the point here, have you forgot that a stick in a higher timeframe represents an entire move & a big structure at a lower one?

Wrong, regardless of TF, they open and close at a specific time, which is meaningless to the markets, I only look at the H and L not the O / C.

If the low's are being rejected by a price then that's good enough for me to trade it, where it opens and closes at the 1minute or 4hours ticks over is completely random.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,008
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:47am Jan 6, 2014 8:47am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I wouldn't be making money if that was true!
Yes you would, your template brings out wave motion. But ask yourself, if you are that sure of it, why not go all in?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,009
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:50am Jan 6, 2014 8:50am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Yes you would, your template brings out wave motion. But ask yourself, if you are that sure of it, why not go all in?

Because I get a 80% win rate not a 100% win rate, for me to take a loss the short term trend has to pretty much change direction, if it didn't change direction ever, then trading would be just too easy.

I can tell you the direction with a great deal of certainty, but will it change in 5mins time or 8 hours time ?? Just go with the direction and take the loss, when it changes! Most of the time, approx 80% it won't so it's all good.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,010
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:51am Jan 6, 2014 8:51am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Wrong, regardless of TF, they open and close at a specific time, which is meaningless to the markets, I only look at the H and L not the O / C. If the low's are being rejected by a price then that's good enough for me to trade it, where it opens and closes at the 1minute or 4hours ticks over is completely random.
A swing low at M1 can be the lower wick of a hanging man at H4
A swing high at M1 can be the higher wick of a shooting star at H4

A pennant pattern can be a tasuku gap at a higher timeframe..

Whatever, it doesnt matter which timeframe you look, they all represent the same thing, so if the chart patterns work, that means the sticks inside them should also work, and they do trust me.

If i just happen to switch to a H4 and see a morning star there, could represent a big structure at M1, but i still prefer to look at M1 because its more clearer to see the entire move, than only the merged candle.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,011
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:54am Jan 6, 2014 8:54am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} A swing low at M1 can be the lower wick of a hanging man at H4 A swing high at M1 can be the higher wick of a shooting star at H4 A pennant pattern can be a tasuku gap at a higher timeframe.. Whatever, it doesnt matter which timeframe you look, they all represent the same think, so if the chart patterns work, that means the sticks inside them should also work, and they do trust me. If i just happen to switch to a H4 and see a morning star there, could represent a big structure at M1, but i still prefer to look at M1 because its more clearer...

If you look at the open and close time for the candle ( use Magix's H1 plot over indicator thingy ) then the OHLC over that time will be the same, no real surpsire there, same market after all.

M1 you can see if it bounced off a price 5times, or tracked along it for 2hours, or whatever, H4 you just see it went down and back up again, detail is good.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,012
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:54am Jan 6, 2014 8:54am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} redlion wanted to know why people like you believe that. Why do you believe that doji, or pin bars, or bullish engulfing bars, or inside bars, or three black crows, or dark cloud cover, or hammers, or head and shoulders, or wave 3's, or ......well you get the drift. Why do you believe that any of that matters, especially when there seems to be no stats to back any of that stuff up?
I see, thanks. I was aware of hanging man etc but never ever bothered with them only inside bars and sometimes outside bars. and mainly traded off the hourly or daily time frame.
Getting back to stats. You make your own stats, for instance lets say e/j - look at the daily chart uk time and see how often the high or low or both is broken from the previous day when you have these stats you can convert to percentages and you will have a good idea what will happen tomorrow.
then add stats for it reaching support/resistance level and retrace
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,013
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:56am Jan 6, 2014 8:56am
Got to get a computer system written, to log all the white lines on the roads in my county with there details and condition by tomorrow AM ( months to collect the data, men lined up waiting on me ), so I better log off and W##K



Plus this will go around in circles for ever, your trying to prove your bias and nobody is really interested in the truth or facts anyway, people!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,014
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:58am Jan 6, 2014 8:58am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} If you look at the open and close time for the candle ( use Magix's H1 plot over indicator thingy ) then the OHLC over that time will be the same, no real surpsire there, same market after all. M1 you can see if it bounced off a price 5times, or tracked along it for 2hours, or whatever, H4 you just see it went down and back up again, detail is good.
Yea.

But to quantify it, i would stick check the STICK patterns, otherwise how can i analyse it statistically? I have to quantify it somehow, and the segmentation of price according to candles is the best method.

So if i analyse a candlestick i`m curious about its position, the context, and its outlook, size,color,wicks, volatility acompanied with it, and any near S/R formed near to it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,015
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:58am Jan 6, 2014 8:58am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Because I get a 80% win rate not a 100% win rate, for me to take a loss the short term trend has to pretty much change direction, if it didn't change direction ever, then trading would be just too easy. I can tell you the direction with a great deal of certainty, but will it change in 5mins time or 8 hours time ?? Just go with the direction and take the loss, when it changes! Most of the time, approx 80% it won't so it's all good.
80% is a stat.....

is your win rate 8 of 10, 80 of 100, 800 in 1000?

What is the basis of such a bold statement? If are winning 80% of the time, you should risk that much capital. You KNOW that you will win 8 of 10 tries, right?

While I enjoy the enthusiastic trader, we do not want to be all hat and no cattle, right? ( Texas saying)
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,016
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:03am Jan 6, 2014 9:03am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yea. But to quantify it, i would stick check the STICK patterns, otherwise how can i analyse it statistically? I have to quantify it somehow, and the segmentation of price according to candles is the best method. So if i analyse a candlestick i`m curious about its position, the context, and its outlook, size,color,wicks, volatility acompanied with it, and any near S/R formed near to it.

Or just don't bother, there RANDOMly formed, think about it for a while, do they really, move the price to a level to draw the candles to give you lot clues ?? ofcouse not, RANDOM!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,017
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:03am Jan 6, 2014 9:03am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I see, thanks. I was aware of hanging man etc but never ever bothered with them only inside bars and sometimes outside bars. and mainly traded off the hourly or daily time frame. Getting back to stats. You make your own stats, for instance lets say e/j - look at the daily chart uk time and see how often the high or low or both is broken from the previous day when you have these stats you can convert to percentages and you will have a good idea what will happen tomorrow. then add stats for it reaching support/resistance level and retrace
Mark Fisher has stats on the opening range.

You have stats on the daily range.

Does that equate to being able to predict? This is a serious question, and yes, I am very much being the devil's advocate here.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,018
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:05am Jan 6, 2014 9:05am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} 80% is a stat..... is your win rate 8 of 10, 80 of 100, 800 in 1000? What is the basis of such a bold statement? If are winning 80% of the time, you should risk that much capital. You KNOW that you will win 8 of 10 tries, right? While I enjoy the enthusiastic trader, we do not want to be all hat and no cattle, right? ( Texas saying)

5% is scarey enough for my account size currently.

I'm stuck likely all week trading wise, might take a few when I have the kids, but alas work, work and more work this week


I don't multitask well!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,019
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:09am Jan 6, 2014 9:09am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Or just don't bother, there RANDOMly formed, think about it for a while, do they really, move the price to a level to draw the candles to give you lot clues ?? ofcouse not, RANDOM!
Yes the pattern candles themselves can be randomly formed, but what comes after the candle is the key here.I dont care how my shooting star forms or why it forms, but i want that after the shooting star a bearish move to come.

It doesnt matter how the stick itself forms, but it should contain information about the future price.A hanging man tells me that i have a 55% that after it, a bullish move will come.

I analysed the market, it was objective so its not really a debate issue.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,020
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:12am Jan 6, 2014 9:12am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} 5% is scarey enough for my account size currently. I'm stuck likely all week trading wise, might take a few when I have the kids, but alas work, work and more work this week I don't multitask well!!
Okay, I am not trying to be a dick, and I do respect you and our conversation. But I have to press this.

If you know, for a FACT, that you will win EIGHTY percent of the time, why are you risking only FIVE percent of your account?

Why are you even working at ANYTHING other than trading?

What you say and what you do appear, at this time, to be discordant, my friend.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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