why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 50 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #981
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:07am Jan 6, 2014 8:07am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Capital protection is the primary objective, profiting is only secondary objective. If i can insure myself to stay in the game indefinitely by using only 1% account size, then i secured my presence permanently in the market.So objective 1 is completed. Only now i can move to objective 2 to make profit, so i will trade small positions, so what, even if i would make an average 0.01% account increase / day, if its consistent i reach the million € faster than a guy who has an unreliable strategy + never heard of money management and account...

Looking forward to some stats!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #982
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:09am Jan 6, 2014 8:09am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Some people cannot handle a challenge to their ego. Owl did that to me, and I did not say anything mean to him. But I did challenge his ideas.
thing is jmn, I have never spoken to the guy, I guess I could look him up in my profile . But I shall not waste time-energy-and breath doing so
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #983
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:10am Jan 6, 2014 8:10am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi,, e/u and g/u go hand in hand most of the time this is can be predicted BUT some times they go opposite ways this is random.. sometimes before a news release an outcome can be predicted but sometimes the outcome is totally opposite to what should of happened and this is random, Most of the time though the market isn't random
Correlation is not the same as causation. If a bar prints on the 5 minute chart right now, can you tell me which way price is going to go in the next 5 minutes? Can you do this all week? I don't think you can....for the record, I can't either........
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #984
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:16am Jan 6, 2014 8:16am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} billy, if you predict, why did you retire? Not sniping, just asking......
I was keeping stats going back to 1st January 2000. my software on pc could not go into the last millennium.
My stats I converted into percentages for on coming trades and I used both of them to trade with mainly compounding. This I would say was predicting, perhaps not what you would say is predicting.
I also traded open range breakout mainly e/j and inside bars mainly e/u e/j g/u and of course the lovely black stuff oil.
I traded one pair at a time plus oil. the pairs I wasn't trading at the time I still kept stats as if I had traded them and I shall ping you as to why I stopped traded
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #985
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:17am Jan 6, 2014 8:17am
Quoting billytt
woo woo Turveyd, GUESS WHAT??? I just been pinged and was in formed I am being ignored by someone I have never ever spoken to lol, Makes me a bad boy I guess, I think who ever it is is either jealous of my good looks and physique or did it by mistake or is using an alias. rain has stopped but it is so windy and the sea is splashing all over the roads, oh well

I get them all the time, and about some about 50% which subscribe to me also, welcome to being a rockstar!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #986
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:18am Jan 6, 2014 8:18am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Correlation is not the same as causation. If a bar prints on the 5 minute chart right now, can you tell me which way price is going to go in the next 5 minutes? Can you do this all week? I don't think you can....for the record, I can't either........
without digging my self into a hole I CANNOT DO IT NOR WOULD i TRY ... But if it happened to just land on a trigger I would trade it as normal
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #987
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:19am Jan 6, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I get them all the time, and about some about 50% which subscribe to me also, welcome to being a rockstar!!
Thank you Turveyd, do you think I should start to swear and have a go at people now lol keep up the image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #988
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:20am Jan 6, 2014 8:20am
Quoting Proximus
Ok this will be a long debate/post (everyone will attack me because of my strange ideas but oh well ), thanks for responding, i will tell you my views then. {quote} If this is the only question that is important then my answer is : Yes, you can increase the knowledge of the setup by being selective and only trade setups which do contain information about the future price instead to trade the random noise.I will detail it soon. {quote} S/R line trading is more to breakout traders, or grid-type traders, just detect the point where all sticks...
I agree .there are ways of increasing your outcome by selecting the high probability set ups.although I average this.
  • #989
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:20am Jan 6, 2014 8:20am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Can you quantitatively prove the markets are not random? I think not. But numbers HAVE been posted in this thread that the markets ARE random. You saw them just as I did, so there is no need for a link.
Wrong, all that's been proved here is Candles are Randomly formed, due to the arbitrary nature of time and meaningless start and end times of the candles this is correct, but because this is what you want to believe then you fill in the blanks yourself.


Theres an intelligence behind it, some weird mass trader effect, your just not seeing it yet.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #990
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:24am Jan 6, 2014 8:24am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I was keeping stats going back to 1st January 2000. my software on pc could not go into the last millennium. My stats I converted into percentages for on coming trades and I used both of them to trade with mainly compounding. This I would say was predicting, perhaps not what you would say is predicting. I also traded open range breakout mainly e/j and inside bars mainly e/u e/j g/u and of course the lovely black stuff oil. I traded one pair at a time plus oil. the pairs I wasn't trading at the time I still kept stats as if I had traded them...

Okay, good to make new friends.

Thats one thing about this thread that I like, I have made some new online FF friends. This thread has been very civil for the most part!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #991
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:25am Jan 6, 2014 8:25am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Capital protection is the primary objective, profiting is only secondary objective. If i can insure myself to stay in the game indefinitely by using only 1% account size, then i secured my presence permanently in the market.So objective 1 is completed. Only now i can move to objective 2 to make profit, so i will trade small positions, so what, even if i would make an average 0.01% account increase / day, if its consistent i reach the million € faster than a guy who has an unreliable strategy + never heard of money management and account...

Capital protection is your way, my way is it's only money, time is the important thing, don't waste it being safe for 1 day we shall all die!!

Been trading 5 - 10% for years, 10% is kinda high but don't really see the issue.


Why do so many focus on MM and not making money, ohhhh because it sounds good and it's the easy part of trading, so easy it's not worth talking about, but they still do, tis odd!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #992
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:27am Jan 6, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Wrong, all that's been proved here is Candles are Randomly formed, due to the arbitrary nature of time and meaningless start and end times of the candles this is correct, but because this is what you want to believe then you fill in the blanks yourself. Theres an intelligence behind it, some weird mass trader effect, your just not seeing it yet.
I can see the psychology behind the market Turv, but that does not make it predictable. Maybe my definition of predicting is too strict. You, Prox, and billytt all seem to hinting at that.

I understand what will probably happen in a market, but, to me, probability is not predictability.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #993
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:28am Jan 6, 2014 8:28am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Thank you Turveyd, do you think I should start to swear and have a go at people now lol keep up the image

Do what Nubs does, go around shouting at everyone that there WRONG WRONG WRONG, but never actually saying anything else, therefore protecting yourself from being wrong

Ofcourse hookers and hookers are well just obvious really, your a rockstar after all ( too old to get it without paying LOL )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #994
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:31am Jan 6, 2014 8:31am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Capital protection is your way, my way is it's only money, time is the important thing, don't waste it being safe for 1 day we shall all die!! Been trading 5 - 10% for years, 10% is kinda high but don't really see the issue. Why do so many focus on MM and not making money, ohhhh because it sounds good and it's the easy part of trading, so easy it's not worth talking about, but they still do, tis odd!!
Hard to get rich thinking like that.

MM is important because of the power of compounding.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #995
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:31am Jan 6, 2014 8:31am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Do what Nubs does, go around shouting at everyone that there WRONG WRONG WRONG, but never actually saying anything else, therefore protecting yourself from being wrong Ofcourse hookers and hookers are well just obvious really, your a rockstar after all ( too old to get it without paying LOL )
lol, your a star bud
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #996
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:33am Jan 6, 2014 8:33am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I can see the psychology behind the market Turv, but that does not make it predictable. Maybe my definition of predicting is too strict. You, Prox, and billytt all seem to hinting at that. I understand what will probably happen in a market, but, to me, probability is not predictability.

But we've established Candles are randomly formed, they really are, but your still trying to predict the market based on single candles, you CAN'T, they are RANDOM move away from candles.

Market is order based, 1000's of monkeys pulling it around all over the place, so yes WAY to strict.


Unpredictability isn't random also.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #997
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:36am Jan 6, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Capital protection is your way, my way is it's only money, time is the important thing, don't waste it being safe for 1 day we shall all die!! Been trading 5 - 10% for years, 10% is kinda high but don't really see the issue. Why do so many focus on MM and not making money, ohhhh because it sounds good and it's the easy part of trading, so easy it's not worth talking about, but they still do, tis odd!!
Maybe 5% is ok, but 10% is just too much, what if you'll get to 1 million, would you trade 100k positions the same way as you were trading 100$ with 1000$ account.

I stick to 1% but only because drawdowns, because i admit my strategy is not the perfect one and in some cases i will have more consecutive losses than the average, in these periods the drawdowns could reach even 15%, its not a uniform growth, so because of this i will limit my risk.

My system can get 10 losses in a row, although the chance of that is very small, but i dont want my account to wipe out because of such a fool mistake.

I`m ok with small profits as long as they are consistent, so 1% for me is ok, although for my new system i will try a sigmoid curve type lot sizing, where as i could start with 5% until i dont hit atleast 10.000 € given that i start with 100€, and decrease the risk from 5% to 1% as the capital grows, this way i can hit the 10k quick, and after that since the account becomes too big to just not pay attention to it, i will decrease smoothly the risk until 1% is hit, and that will be a very nice money management tehnique.

Quote
Capital protection is your way, my way is it's only money, time is the important thing, don't waste it being safe for 1 day we shall all die!!

Sorry but i play safe, if you want to risk huge then go to a casino and play blackjack or barracat, it has the best odds maybe you win maybe not
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #998
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:36am Jan 6, 2014 8:36am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hard to get rich thinking like that. MM is important because of the power of compounding.

Hard / impossible to get rich going so slowly and carefully, compounding works a lot better at 5% rather than 1%

Obviously you need a method, which supports trading profitably before actually trading about 0%.


Don't go all Chicky, she believes market is random, but if she trades at a low enough MM currently 0.25% eventually she'll have run of winners and then she'll be 1% up and making money, why bother, seriously why bother 1000's of hours to hope to get lucky and make 1 or 2% occasionally.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #999
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:37am Jan 6, 2014 8:37am
getting back to predicting... am I right in thinking that the idea of this thread is to generate a forward looking chart and then trade off it as in PREDICTION. Or shall I take some medication and have a lie down for saying something totally stupid
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,000
  • Jan 6, 2014 8:37am Jan 6, 2014 8:37am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} But we've established Candles are randomly formed, they really are, but your still trying to predict the market based on single candles, you CAN'T, they are RANDOM move away from candles. Market is order based, 1000's of monkeys pulling it around all over the place, so yes WAY to strict. Unpredictability isn't random also.

I personally don't predict the market at all. I am a millipeder, so I simply place order in the direction of price.

I don't believe only candles are random, I believe all price fluctuation on the short term is random.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
4 traders viewing now