why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 48 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #941
  • Jan 5, 2014 9:03am Jan 5, 2014 9:03am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} How about if pro trader trades at 3% and makes 5 trades per day, with 80% win rate. YES guessing at 2 years. then factor in a 1:2 r:r . sadlly lot sizes become unmanageable way before the 1mil so sadly still NO. Genesis thread was Mikko, he's blocked from this thread, strict tight SL's here
My first thought would be that he would risk 14% DD each day. Now he's aiming at the million...
If the guy has 80% chance of reaching his goal of 5 winning trades his winrate per trade is p^5=0.8 => p=95.6%... I'd like to meet a trader with such a winrate and a R:R of 2.
This guy now has to find 5 non-correlated trading opportunities every day... Given the success rate required that's not realistic.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #942
  • Jan 5, 2014 9:04am Jan 5, 2014 9:04am
did you try RR 1:3 and win% 50%? 200 trades, each entry takes 20% capital

it might surprise you.

now the real thing is, such a system is not that hard to find.

Quoting PipMeUp
{quote}Millionnaire from $1000. Personally I just forget about it.
  • #943
  • Jan 5, 2014 9:21am Jan 5, 2014 9:21am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} My first thought would be that he would risk 14% DD each day. Now he's aiming at the million... If the guy has 80% chance of reaching his goal of 5 winning trades his winrate per trade is p^5=0.8 => p=95.6%... I'd like to meet a trader with such a winrate and a R:R of 2. This guy now has to find 5 non-correlated trading opportunities every day... Given the success rate required that's not realistic.

Well 15% without adjusting size down between trades, if he loses all 5 trades in a row, it's an acceptable risk if you think you could make 30% some days.

I have likely 20 per day of such opportunity's, still a WIP but I expect to be able to get into 5 per day average, and I expect a R:R of 2+ with some more practice, sometimes 3 or 4!!

But I'm trading $1 per pip with a $500 account we'll say currently, so to keep the %%'s the same I'd have to trade at $200 per pip at $100K, and $2000 per pip when I hit the Million.

Although I can go to $100 per pip, FXCM say your order when you move past $10 will likely be broken up into multiple orders, managing a seperate SL for each and closing each manually which takes time.

So realistically the upper limit $'s per pip is $20 area, so as soon as I hit a $10K account it'll be a rapidly falling % without looking for a different broker to solve maybe ??

This is why a 1Mil+ account is not possible, atleast intraday trading, longer term and building a position with many order maybe, but win rate would suffer.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #944
  • Jan 5, 2014 10:49am Jan 5, 2014 10:49am
regarding turning a small amount to a million by (doubling up or compounding) in a year.
I say this in a friendly and constructive way...
To the guys who advocate using a small time frame , In this case I doubt it can be done.
But if you get the daily charts up and study the range certain pairs make, this can drastically improve your chance of doing it.
AND this is where PREDICTION comes in.
You will have a good statistical advantage to achieving your aim but also still be suspect to having a loss. This is where you have to think how to trade the loss.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #945
  • Jan 5, 2014 10:53am Jan 5, 2014 10:53am
Quoting billytt
regarding turning a small amount to a million by (doubling up or compounding) in a year. I say this in a friendly and constructive way... To the guys who advocate using a small time frame , In this case I doubt it can be done. But if you get the daily charts up and study the range certain pairs make, this can drastically improve your chance of doing it. AND this is where PREDICTION comes in. You will have a good statistical advantage to achieving your aim but also still be suspect to having a loss. This is where you have to think how to trade the...
but... but... which are the best fib numbers to use?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #946
  • Jan 5, 2014 11:04am Jan 5, 2014 11:04am
Quoting billytt
regarding turning a small amount to a million by (doubling up or compounding) in a year. I say this in a friendly and constructive way... To the guys who advocate using a small time frame , In this case I doubt it can be done. But if you get the daily charts up and study the range certain pairs make, this can drastically improve your chance of doing it. AND this is where PREDICTION comes in. You will have a good statistical advantage to achieving your aim but also still be suspect to having a loss. This is where you have to think how to trade the...

You don't trade the loss, you take the loss, there part of the business there always going to happen, accept this and move on, just try to make them less than your profits.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #947
  • Jan 5, 2014 11:17am Jan 5, 2014 11:17am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} but... but... which are the best fib numbers to use?
Hi,, fib levels are ever present but it is one thing I never ever bothered about when I traded
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #948
  • Jan 5, 2014 11:19am Jan 5, 2014 11:19am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You don't trade the loss, you take the loss, there part of the business there always going to happen, accept this and move on, just try to make them less than your profits.
yes indeed, We are preached to so many times to take a loss and I agree entirely BUT I am talking compounding or doubling up. If you have a good strike rate the odd loss can be catered for
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #949
  • Jan 5, 2014 11:39am Jan 5, 2014 11:39am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi,, fib levels are ever present but it is one thing I never ever bothered about when I traded

Do yourself a favour and don't bother about them EVER, there rubbish, a bunch of numbers by a whacko possibly hundreds of years ago has zero real meaning in the markets. Yes they look good after the fact, if you ignore all of the fails, predictive value = ZERO!!!

50% ie half way is about the only 1 that tests at all.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #950
  • Jan 5, 2014 11:41am Jan 5, 2014 11:41am
Quoting billytt
{quote} yes indeed, We are preached to so many times to take a loss and I agree entirely BUT I am talking compounding or doubling up. If you have a good strike rate the odd loss can be catered for

Well, yes but, I have a method which supports 2 positions tops, so yes I go long on a pull back in an uptrend, if it then pulls back lower, I'll take a 2nd position on a pause if the uptrend is still valid, but you need a line in the sand, where below that, it's no longer a pull back, the trend has likely changed and you should be out, that is where my SL sits.

I limit to 2, or I start getting emotionally attached, and buying more and more and moving the SL and there goes another account
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #951
  • Edited 12:28pm Jan 5, 2014 11:47am | Edited 12:28pm
"The complex nature of the market is a strong argument for a phenomenological approach to market theory. A market has many facets, elements that are functional parts, but still with a large degree of independence in their behavior. As one of these elements changes, that changed behavior is returned to the market via the feedback mechanism. While elements such as volume, volatility, range, time behavior and the like are individually measureable, they all combine to form the market one studies or trades. Each element must be discovered and studied on its own before there is any thought of considering how it affects the whole. The vital question of extreme market behavior such as large, fast changes in value must be understood. It is the thesis of Auction Market Value Theory that each of the market elements can be isolated and must be understood prior to forming a coherent description of a market. The experienced trader collects all the market information available, assesses each piece, ending with an understanding of the market situation. Not all pieces are necessarily needed to find the market's condition. Different sets will be used at different times."..................................

On that premise, everyday “intraday-day” (minor auction) analysis used every day in AMT takes the net sum of the markets functional parts to perform directionally predictive analysis. When tested percent correct predictions: 83%
This is part of my every day analysis using data from the MP indicator which I track daily using spreadsheets to track the intraday flow of the market

Flow study & results
http://www.cisco-futures.com/daytrad..._example2.html

I only bring this up because I see many taking a simple mathematical calculation, impose it on one market variable "Price". None of these "strategies" take into consideration the "condition" of the market. They "fixate" on the activity of one market variable. without any reference to the whole.............
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #952
  • Jan 5, 2014 12:33pm Jan 5, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Do yourself a favour and don't bother about them EVER, there rubbish, a bunch of numbers by a whacko possibly hundreds of years ago has zero real meaning in the markets. Yes they look good after the fact, if you ignore all of the fails, predictive value = ZERO!!! 50% ie half way is about the only 1 that tests at all.

lol, I do know people who use Fibs as a tool but like I say I never used them as an indicator,, I used to get perplexed sticking a moving average on to a chart
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #953
  • Jan 5, 2014 12:34pm Jan 5, 2014 12:34pm
Trading a roman candle for profit:

Wait for the candle to close, of course. Now what? Sometimes a roman candle indicates a turn in direction of trend, and the next candle goes down
, but other times the next candle goes right on up the scale and continues the trend. You don't know (yet) which way it goes but you intend to take advantage of it if it goes on up.

Say for convenience, it has a 30 pip wick. Set your pending entry 8, 9 pips away from the candle body so the market doesn't "hunt" your entry. (it doesn't actually do that, but it looks like it..) Stop loss just in the body and take profit before the end of the wick.
You get a better than 1:1 risk /reward ratio and a better than even chance of going into profit if the trade takes at all.

If the pending trade doesn't take with the next candle, remove it. no harm, no foul.

This is good for the occasional scalp, and easy to acquire a "touch" for.

That's the basic idea for a technique that should occasionally work with any "System"

Don't get hung up on it -- if it doesn't work for you, forget it, it's only a technique.
  • #954
  • Jan 5, 2014 12:44pm Jan 5, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
Trading a roman candle for profit: Wait for the candle to close, of course. Now what? Sometimes a roman candle indicates a turn in direction of trend, and the next candle goes down , but other times the next candle goes right on up the scale and continues the trend. You don't know (yet) which way it goes but you intend to take advantage of it if it goes on up. Say for convenience, it has a 30 pip wick. Set your pending entry 8, 9 pips away from the candle body so the market doesn't "hunt" your entry. (it doesn't actually do that, but it looks like...
I cannot say I know what a roman candle is in forex,, I traded inside bars quite a lot and everyone on FF knows. But change of trend is normally associated with inside bar or outside bar AND long wicks, so perhaps this is what you refer to.
It all gets down to indecision and who is getting in control
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #955
  • Jan 5, 2014 1:29pm Jan 5, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting PipMeUp
What is the probability that a A++ super elite guru trader can turn $1000 into a million in a year? He has ~240 sessions to play for this year. Each and every single day is (must be) a 2% winner. If the probability is P for each day, the probability of reaching the goal is P^240. Because he is a A++ super elite guru trader we can imagine his success rate is 99%. 0.99^240=0.089. He will reach his goal once every 11 years in average. Well... he can do it. Can I do it if my success rate is 70%? 0.70^240 ~ 6e-38. No. Can I do it if my success rate is...
I'm workin' on it lol. Gonna happen soon. If you use options, millionaire from $1000 is indeed very possible, and with much less than a 99% win rate.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #956
  • Jan 5, 2014 1:49pm Jan 5, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I'm workin' on it lol. Gonna happen soon. If you use options, millionaire from $1000 is indeed very possible, and with much less than a 99% win rate.
Last time I traded Options, I had $6000 USD's in the account, stupidly went SHORT 100% being greedy, market gapped up so bad I was down 5K from the open eccksss, then ran against me almost wiping me out, I worked out the values if I'd of went 100% long, I'd of had around 100K inside of a week doh!!

1 of my stocks, had an SEC issue and dumped 50% area in no time, getting me out @3K left thankfully.

I cashed out after this, 2001 maybe ??

So yeah, if the market has a good over all strength then yeah options especially out of the money high risks 1's can make HUGE returns, easily 10-20x's the value in a few weeks.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #957
  • Jan 5, 2014 2:30pm Jan 5, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Last time I traded Options, I had $6000 USD's in the account, stupidly went SHORT 100% being greedy, market gapped up so bad I was down 5K from the open eccksss, then ran against me almost wiping me out, I worked out the values if I'd of went 100% long, I'd of had around 100K inside of a week doh!! 1 of my stocks, had an SEC issue and dumped 50% area in no time, getting me out @3K left thankfully. I cashed out after this, 2001 maybe ?? So yeah, if the market has a good over all strength then yeah options especially out of the money high...
Yup, that sounds about right

Options are nuts and you can lose everything you have or make a fortune in an instant. It's not easy, but yes, you can absolutely make 10-20x gains if you are right and/or patient enough. I trade mostly SPY and FX binary contracts along with regular FX, but options are my favorite there's nothing else like it, and I would even recommend it to newbies (contrary to popular belief), as it will very quickly, almost immediately, expedite your learning curve. You make a mistake once in an options account and, trust me, you won't want to make it again. Options trade just like any other instrument... But on steroids!

And so I reject the argument that $1k to Millionaire is impossible, because it most certainly is not. It's just very dang hard!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #958
  • Jan 5, 2014 4:22pm Jan 5, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} How much of this do you have to know to boil an egg?
Exactly..

But you require the knowledge of the key elements.you would be surprised how often people fuck up a simple soft boiled egg.
  • #959
  • Jan 5, 2014 4:35pm Jan 5, 2014 4:35pm
I can determine from the most of the replies here.not all.but the majority are missing one of these key elements.there eggs will always have a random chance of being fucked

I cant answer if a single candle or a group of candles forming a pattern has any significant effect on the devoloping candle or candles.but I can say it will be totally random unless you can measure the correlated incomming volatility. Or lack of.
  • #960
  • Jan 5, 2014 4:40pm Jan 5, 2014 4:40pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} But on steroids! And so I reject the argument that $1k to Millionaire is impossible, because it most certainly is not. It's just very
dang hard!

Account to 20K area, then make 30% so $6000 per month is my goal for end of this year that's approx £3700 GBP per month, so over twice what I make currently, if I can do it in 20hours per week, that'd be great to, 4 hours per day!!

So save £2000 per month, and I'll be a millionaire in so that's 26 years of saving, to $1 Mil USD cheating air, think I'll forget the million and spend as I go
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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