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Markets Source

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 1, 2014 2:27am Jan 1, 2014 2:27am
Welcome to Markets Source!

This thread will focus mainly on Fundamental and Technical analysis for the every Market. The main idea is to have a thread where people can post important details about the News or important trading setups that they have witnessed. Since everyone have to sleep, its impossible to trade all day long on a 24hours market. If people of this forum work in team, we will be able to cover the overall market times with detailed information.


Everyone is welcome to post and material from the news section can be copy pasted here. If you hear anything important from Bloomberg or CNBC worth noted, you can also post it here. Charts can also be posted, but personally, I will ignore any chart with indicators on it.

Information can be on any market, except the crypto currency market. Forex will be our main focus but information and News on stock, bond or future market will also be discussed.


I hope this thread will grow and have trader from different part of the world so that we can cover the whole market
  • #2
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:53am Jan 1, 2014 2:53am
The end of December and beginning of January are likely to be bullish for the Euro. First we had news that says that Draghi sees no further rate cut while we had another official from the Bundesbank saying that a rise in interest rate could be possible. Those word will have an important impact and favor for the Euro

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...51#post7178837
  • #3
  • Jan 1, 2014 11:43am Jan 1, 2014 11:43am
BoJ indicated that their easing program could last for more than planned ( 2 years) if needed. Another news that will have a negative impact on the Yen for 2014. The Yen could keep on loosing, but lest not forget that the BoJ said that they would be happy if the USD/JPY was to remain between 100 and 110 and if they were to repeat it, the market could be stuck in that range for a long period before going further :

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...51#post7183291
  • #4
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:14pm Jan 2, 2014 3:14pm
While everyone is focusing on the EUR/USD, important moves have been made in all canadian pairs and Japanese one too. The CAD, who lost a lot during the second half of 2013, seems to have started 2014 on the right foot.

Since there are no News supporting that increase in value, I would expect a pause before further up
  • #5
  • Jan 2, 2014 3:21pm Jan 2, 2014 3:21pm
Holidays season is a very difficult period to trade. A moment you have low volume, then high, then low again. Trends are started but then cancelled. Trading the holiday season is not a good idea, its better to stay away and wait for normal market conditions
  • #6
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:16pm Jan 3, 2014 4:16pm
We had a brief and surprising week. The Eur and the GBP lost value overall while the CAD and the JPY gain value after weeks of losses. The fundamental support neither the depreciation of the EURO nor the appreciation of the Yen.

Oil lost value for the past 3 days while the S&P and other markets started in a bad foot. The lost of value in oil should have trigger a negative impact on the CAD therefore the fundamental are also against the CAD increase in value.


Thats it for this week, hopefully next week will have more important moves. If the EUR/JPY pair keeps on going lower, I will probably buy. I might also buy the USD/JPY or GBP/JPY to diversify the risk
  • #7
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:22pm Jan 3, 2014 4:22pm
keep going bro, nice thread Just need more interaction of members to enrich the discussion thread
  • #8
  • Edited 5:25pm Jan 3, 2014 4:30pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting nedal26
keep going bro, nice thread Just need more interaction of members to enrich the discussion thread

Thanks a lot pal. Feel free to come by and participate. We can all learn from each other
  • #9
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:43pm Jan 3, 2014 4:43pm
This could be very useful for intra day traders if we could all organize a group for each tf. Like I could be your newyork trader cover everything for that period, someone else Tokyo, and a London fx trader. That way we wont miss a beat! But its hard as most of here have other things and cant have the market as their main focus. Also the majority do not have the discipline required to be organized for such a game unless they were to get paid for it.

About 95% of my focus is FX but I think it is good to also monitor the commodities like oil gold silver etc as they have been around for longer in the marketplace.
With that said I think we can very much get a good sense of direction of which currencies can go what and achieve an overall picture.
Gold has been getting smashed the whole year really and hasnt shown any signs of recovering but we may have found support @ 1200 as price has bounched sharply off this level before and looks to know following suit in accordance to demand. Will wait for 1260 to be cleared before we can say it has made a reversal yet.

Oil, crazy the price of gas here is the most expensive it has ever been($1.25 per L)yet, the US Oil spot market has been tanking lower from about august with a 40% correction looking to test the lows again. Looking at the overall zoomed out picture I see this range that looks to be winding up with a lot of testing of the lower trend line that has acted as a dynamic support level. This is a chart probably better just to keep an eye on over the coming months and into the year.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #10
  • Jan 3, 2014 4:56pm Jan 3, 2014 4:56pm
Quoting Rtm
This could be very useful for intra day traders if we could all organize a group for each tf. Like I could be your newyork trader cover everything for that period, someone else Tokyo, and a London fx trader. That way we wont miss a beat! But its hard as most of here have other things and cant have the market as their main focus. Also the majority do not have the discipline required to be organized for such a game unless they were to get paid for it. About 95% of my focus is FX but I think it is good to also monitor the commodities like oil gold...

I like you way of analyzing the market. I too saw that pattern in gold and wanted to buy it at the level that it is, but then I remembered that the Fed has started to lower the amount of money that they will print so I decided not to jump in now. As for Oil, Im looking forward for higher prices. Anything noise from the Middle-East or good news about the overall economy could push that commodity higher. With the major sell off we had, chance are there are no more sellers left.

I will keep an eye on both gold and oil
  • #11
  • Edited 8:28pm Jan 4, 2014 12:14am | Edited 8:28pm
Look at him. An ordinary man you would say. Back then people didnt pay so much attention to him. After all, who would have guessed that he would become on of the best trader that had ever live:

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  • #12
  • Jan 4, 2014 9:08pm Jan 4, 2014 9:08pm
This is on News article that was released a couple of days ago that I found very important :

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/1...9BH0B620131218

Basically, the BoE is not happy with the current value of the pound. That could an impact during the year if they keep on insisting about it. Here is one comment they made :

  1. "Any further substantial appreciation of sterling would pose additional risks to the balance of demand growth and to the recovery"

  • #13
  • Jan 5, 2014 2:01pm Jan 5, 2014 2:01pm
Eur/Jpy will be the chart that I will focus the most this week. Im eager to see if the market will push that pair lower so that I can buy it :
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  • #14
  • Jan 5, 2014 2:05pm Jan 5, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting Capelli
{quote} I like you way of analyzing the market. I too saw that pattern in gold and wanted to buy it at the level that it is, but then I remembered that the Fed has started to lower the amount of money that they will print so I decided not to jump in now. As for Oil, Im looking forward for higher prices. Anything noise from the Middle-East or good news about the overall economy could push that commodity higher. With the major sell off we had, chance are there are no more sellers left. I will keep an eye on both gold and oil
If we look at the weekly chart, we can see that we were in a support and resistance level for Nymex Crude Oil :
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  • #15
  • Jan 6, 2014 3:26pm Jan 6, 2014 3:26pm
From ZeroHedge tweet :

  1. ECB sources say no major policy changes expected this week. Repeats Negative rates is uncharted territory, 10 bps depo rate cut considered

  • #16
  • Jan 6, 2014 4:11pm Jan 6, 2014 4:11pm
From Dukascopy TV :

  1. Finance Minister of Canada said that the country manufacturers will be helped by a currency that the policy makers may weaken

It seems like everyone wants to lower their currency value. I dont expect that statement to have any impact on the CAD in the short term since everyone else is saying the same thing. They cant all lose value at the same time.

Besides, the CAD is already weak against most currency. The USD/CAD is at its 4 year high :

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  • #17
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:31pm Jan 7, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting Capelli
The end of December and beginning of January are likely to be bullish for the Euro. First we had news that says that Draghi sees no further rate cut while we had another official from the Bundesbank saying that a rise in interest rate could be possible. Those word will have an important impact and favor for the Euro http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...51#post7178837

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...91#post7195866

There seems to be deflation across Europe. That is likely going to be mentioned in the ECB meeting on Thursday. I do remember someone from the ECB saying that they could increase the interest rate in order to prevent deflation, maybe that will come out in the meeting.
  • #18
  • Edited 3:02pm Jan 9, 2014 2:35pm | Edited 3:02pm
I had a really long week. I wasted too much time watch over my charts to know if the price had reach the levels that I wanted.

I missed my EUR/JPY trade. I focussed a too much on CHF/JPY and forgot to go on EUR/JPY. I made a little bit of profit with the CHF/JPY on, but not as much I was expecting. The trade of the week for me was in NZD/CHF. The CHF had to gain in value due to it extreme weakness while the NXD was a little bit inflated. I had to wait for 4 days to reach my target. My profits too were a little bit lower than I expected since I forgot to add the swap fees in my calculations.

Now I have to read the FOMC statement as well as the speech Draghi gave this morning. If any could summarize both of these events here it would be much appreciated.


Anyways, my trading week is over for now. I will have to check other charts to see if there are any opportunities left for this week or for next week.
I Hope everyone had a good trading week
  • #19
  • Jan 10, 2014 12:06am Jan 10, 2014 12:06am
Quoting Capelli
From Dukascopy TV : Finance Minister of Canada said that the country manufacturers will be helped by a currency that the policy makers may weakenIt seems like everyone wants to lower their currency value. I dont expect that statement to have any impact on the CAD in the short term since everyone else is saying the same thing. They cant all lose value at the same time. Besides, the CAD is already weak against most currency. The USD/CAD is at its 4 year high : {image}
The CAD was probably the biggest looser of the week. It lost against every other currencies for the past 4 days and could continue to fall. Last week it had gain a lot while crude oil was down. Oil kept on losing during this week while the CAD lost more than it had gained last week.

Whether Oil will continue to fall or not is hard to say, but if Oil price were to rise, CAD could rise and gain some of its losses.
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  • #20
  • Jan 11, 2014 12:07am Jan 11, 2014 12:07am
We had some really depressing job figure for both US and Canada this morning. Likewise, these two pairs lost the most. The balance is now against the USD and we can be sure that the next FOMC or Fed Meeting will bring more uncertainty. As for the CAD, that pair seems to be doom. The Canadian central bank wants to devaluate the currency, Oil is falling and now the jobs number are bad.

Every other pairs will gain against these two for the coming days. EUR/USD would be a good pair to long. My take-profits will be placed at 1.38
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