it's a small matter | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Small account - small leverage (30:1) 0 replies

Small bells, small whistles. 2 replies

Small time relative newbie taking small steps 177 replies

Reality check - do small FX accounts inevitably stay small? 14 replies

Daily Candle close time...Does IT Matter??? 7 replies

Attachments: it's a small matter
Exit Attachments

it's a small matter

Sep 21, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 21, 2014
Sep 21, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 21, 2014
Sep 21, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 21, 2014
Sep 21, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 21, 2014
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #21
  • Jan 2, 2014 6:31am Jan 2, 2014 6:31am
gbpchf..... not in it yet...... if and when, max lots will be 1 standard...... 200+ pip targets.....

for past 2 years it's been in a 800 pip range...... will enter long only on any weakness.... weakness being defined as stoch 12/3/5 of 20 or less reading........

daily zigzag is 271 pips, weekly is 580..... daily atr is 84, weekly 238...... last daily leg was up, weekly was down....

need to increase my overall gbp long exposure..... no rush here....h
//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfweekly.png Size: 62 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #22
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:32am Jan 2, 2014 7:32am
Quoting hayseed
hmmmm...... seems my first post on the eurusd from a couple days ago is now missing.... and can't remember what i wrote...... anyway, here is an update..... we are now within 50 pips of lower daily uptrend line..... awesome indicator weakening but still well above 0..... triple top in the 1.38 area...... it's far too early to say a ceiling is in but we are probably closer to the top than we are to the bottom...... a 50% retrace on the monthly chart would land about 1.29 ..... average weekly atr is around 220 pips..... average weekly zigzag is 514...
What happened to all those shorts on EURUSD??
  • #23
  • Jan 2, 2014 10:49am Jan 2, 2014 10:49am
Quoting Forexgogo
What happened to all those shorts on EURUSD??
//----

hey forexgogo..... briefly the account moved up over $5000 in less than 24 hours, 20%..... that move put most of the daily charts at their daily or weekly atr limits...... many trades closed but will be reentered if conditions permit......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #24
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:07pm Jan 2, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey forexgogo..... briefly the account moved up over $5000 in less than 24 hours, 20%..... that move put most of the daily charts at their daily or weekly atr limits...... many trades closed but will be reentered if conditions permit......h
Understood. Good luck
  • #25
  • Jan 3, 2014 6:01am Jan 3, 2014 6:01am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} we are approaching 9 weeks of lower lows lower highs...... the possibility of a daily counter trend move exists that could easily over take the 2 lowest shorts.......
//----

that possibility still exists... the audusd's daily zigzag suggests a possible 200+ pip move of against my positions..... i view this as a good thing....

the weekly zigzag suggests a possible 600+ pip move against me...... i view that as a better thing......

will be sittin tight here unless strong moves up or down come over the next few days......h

//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly.png Size: 81 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #26
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:13pm Jan 3, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting hayseed
my long time view on the usdjpy has not changed...... still lookin for 148...... subject to change of course......h
//----

the deluge of fed speakers over next few hours could very well impact the next few days......

the usdjpy has my full attention at this point..... the latest daily zigzag down leg is only about 140 pips..... average length is almost twice that..... would imply a much further correction might be in order...... i'll be there waiting.......h
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpydaily 1 3.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4.png Size: 77 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #27
  • Jan 4, 2014 3:41pm Jan 4, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting hayseed
daily peak to trough had been roughly 10 bars....... lately it's been 4 or less..... as the daily coils tighten, the pent up energy increases.....
//-----
a coil will only tighten so far.......

eurnzd update.... fridays atr was over double the average and all one way...... my 15 trades closed ..... both daily and weekly zigzags down...... macd, awesome and stoch all point toward further weakness .....

nzd pairs suffer from spread extremes on sundays opening..... being mindful of spread, will renter short..... odds favor eventually some retrace of fridays bar..... pending shorts will be spaced on fib numbers of the last daily zigzag leg.....

my preference would be fridays high, which will be roughly 50% retrace......

max combined lots roughly 1 standard lot.... entrys in mini lot size..... targets of the weekly atr scale...... h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzdweekly 1 4.png Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzddaily 1 4.png Size: 65 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #28
  • Jan 5, 2014 9:52pm Jan 5, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting hayseed
the usdjpy has my full attention at this point..... the latest daily zigzag down leg is only about 140 pips..... average length is almost twice that..... would imply a much further correction might be in order...... i'll be there waiting.......h
//----

add nzdjpy to that attention list......

nikkei 225 is having second thoughts..... at the moment it's down around 2%.......

on the other side of that nikkei teeter totter is the yen..... wouldn't take much yen strength to drive most jpy crosses down several hundred pips......

possible +/- 4000 equity swings......

usdjpy at 103 would be a welcomed sight..... easy to see it at 101..... prepared for 99.....h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 225.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpydaily 97.png Size: 78 KB
Attached Image
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #29
  • Jan 7, 2014 9:28am Jan 7, 2014 9:28am
Quoting hayseed
and the eur is staring dead into deflations mirror.....
//----

Surprise drop in euro zone inflation shows deflation risk

wonder if they really were surprised....
//----

going way out on a limb here.... eurnzd has been ranging for past few days..... was hoping for an up leg in daily zigzag that has yet to appear.....

added 5 mini lots short which within a minute went 50$ against me.... my view of this trade is that is technically untimely..... being so, i am fully prepared for it to go 500$ against me..... or more...... in the end, i fully believe the nzd will win.....

new zealand is a small country flat full of hard working people.... euroland is a whole pack of big countries equally flat full of hard workin people that are just havin a hard time finding any...... the fundamentals should help the eurnzd short trades.....

but again, a few choice words could send this trade hard against me.....h

//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzdm30.png Size: 65 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #30
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:51pm Jan 7, 2014 3:51pm
Your obvious v.brave with the EURNZD. The weekly ATR shows this to be a very volatile pair, a weeks move could easily be 500 pips. I consider that you need 1.6350 to be taken out IMHO

Good Luck
  • #31
  • Jan 7, 2014 10:43pm Jan 7, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting lucklogic
The weekly ATR shows this to be a very volatile pair, a weeks move could easily be 500 pips.
//----

hey luck..... thanks..... this will probably be a less than 3 day trade for me..... the ecb speaks out on thursday..... prefer to be light all eur shorts by that morning..... just precaution.....

the eurnzd weekly and monthly charts appear to be turning down..... so there might be a slow bouncy fall..... it's those daily bounces i'll be shorting......

i'm short the eurnzd but also long nzdjpy and nzdchf..... only lookin for a 1000 out of'em all...... hopefully by tomorrow......h
//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzdweekly 1 7.png Size: 86 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #32
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:42am Jan 8, 2014 10:42am
Quoting hayseed
this will probably be a less than 3 day trade for me.....
//---

repositioning the nzd crosses.... will still focus on long nzd entries..... in 1 or 2 mini lots trades, max 2 standard lots combined..... nzdjpy, nzdchf, eurnzd.....

moved eurgbp target to just above .8105 ...... eurusd target just above 1.35 ......

if the federal jibber jabber in a few hours doesn't heat things up, the ecb might tomorrow...... gittin prepared.......h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily 1 8.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpweekly 1 8.png Size: 70 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #33
  • Jan 10, 2014 9:44am Jan 10, 2014 9:44am
Quoting hayseed
possible +/- 4000 equity swings...... usdjpy at 103 would be a welcomed sight..... easy to see it at 101..... prepared for 99.....h
//----

kinda rough seas out there today..... my dingy took on a bit of water..... no real harm done..... yet......

speaking of seas...... the c to c on the usdjpy 240 chart has been runnin about 25 bars..... the current bar of the 240 chart falls dead on the projected cycle.... projections are just that, nothing more......

the current 155 pip single bar move has so far covered the past 37...... we still have time left in it..... a single bar that is already well over twice the daily average atr..... a single bar that eclipses 37 demands respect......

all things considered, 105 is just as close as 103...... and 106 is just as close as 102......

and again, possible +/- 4000 equity swings...... usdjpy at 103 would be a welcomed sight..... easy to see it at 101..... prepared for 99.....h

//------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: c to c.png Size: 63 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #34
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:44pm Jan 14, 2014 1:44pm
testing the canadian waters..... ehhhhh...... or maybe it's the canadian ice..... in any event, first trade went in at 3 mini lots..... will add to that..... slowly.....

appears to be +/- 300 pips in it at least over next 12 months...... will settle for 100..... one would think 92 should hold.....

daily stoch, 12,3,5, was at 6 now at 7 ...... not something you see every day......

average daily zigzag is about 170, currently 371..... average weekly zigzag is 405, current value is 777..... luck in 3 decimal points.....

as the states pick up steam, the cad will move up with it..... or at least after it thaws out some......h
//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpydaily fib.png Size: 96 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #35
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:32pm Jan 15, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting hayseed
any short trade would be a technical trade as it will be a risky counter trend......
//----

update on the gbpcad fiasco.... or maybe it should be a downdate..... cause it was.... 7 trades total, 3 wins and threw in the towel with the last 4 .....

weekly td sequential count now stands at an impressive, and almost unheard of, 24...... that's a weekly count.......

bottom line, it was a risky counter trend trade, and i have a 833$ loss too prove it.....

but....... there will be another day......h

//------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: td gbpcad.png Size: 46 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #36
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:02pm Jan 15, 2014 5:02pm
Hey .............we have all done it ................you look back and think.......................what the hell was I thinking of !!!!!!


But that's Forex trading right there.
  • #37
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:37pm Jan 15, 2014 8:37pm
eurgbp...... no point in denying the daily higher high..... to be of any real value, there needs to be a higher low..... so we're 50% there......

current daily zigzag is up and just a few pips more than it's average..... weekly zigzag is down but 100 pips less than it's average..... it's the 100 that's on my mind......

we're 85 pips from the top downtrend line and 85 pips from last weeks low..... my thoughts are mondays momentum might kick in pushing it up to top trend line..... bear market ralleys can be sharp..... and painful.....

currently 3.5 mini lots short and red all over.....

easy to see it at .85 ...... hard to see it at .86 ...... expect a shot at .84 ..... no rush.... small bites..... 1 standard lot maximum combined.....h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpweekly 1 15.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpdaily tri.png Size: 70 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #38
  • Jan 16, 2014 3:34pm Jan 16, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting hayseed
euraud does not interest me at this point.....h
//----

ok..... now it interests me..... more to the point, the next 170 pips up interests me...... the potential for a triple top exists.....

will only risk a grand total..... small bite size trades placed on the 240 chart...... combined lots should be less than 1 standard lot max.....

this would be called a high risk counter trend trade...... my only 4 losses so far have been high risk counter trend trades ......h

//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurauddaily 1 16.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudh4.png Size: 50 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #39
  • Jan 17, 2014 8:43am Jan 17, 2014 8:43am
nzdjpy...... walkin back out a limb today..... already way over short the jpy.....

nzdjpy now back to the lower daily trend line..... it did not get there by strength...... so risk should be obvious......

todays current price is also dead on last years april high...... a high that was soon followed by a 1200 pip fall..... longs pay swap but not enough to cover that dive....

looks like support and resistance , if there is such a thing, are both 100 pips from here......

easy to see it at 84. ..... would welcome 80. ..... darn hard to see it at 74......h
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpydaily 100.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpyh4 1 17.png Size: 66 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #40
  • Jan 18, 2014 7:55pm Jan 18, 2014 7:55pm
nzd..... buying the nzd will be on my mind next week....

this is due both to favorable weekly technical outlook, subject to change of course, and possible rbnz rate rhetoric this wednesday.....

an absolute max 3 standard lots combined across eurnzd, nzdchf, nzdjpy and possibly gbpnzd...... a 200 pip move against 3 standard lots would be intolerable, so the trades must go in slowly in a manner which offers the minimum drawdown....

for me this can best be accomplished by adding to winners in a decreasing lot size..... maximizing the move will not be important.....

first wave goes in sunday.......h
//----
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
0 traders viewing now