what is confluence and what if H4 close varies by broker | Forex Factory

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what is confluence and what if H4 close varies by broker

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 27, 2013 10:09am Dec 27, 2013 10:09am
what is confluence? how do you guy making a decision on it? and what if h4 timeframe doesn't close the same GMT on each forex broker? i have noticed PA isn't the same and make me confused. thanks
I want to be rich.
  • #2
  • Dec 27, 2013 5:25pm Dec 27, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting eurusdthb
what is confluence? how do you guy making a decision on it? and what if h4 timeframe doesn't close the same GMT on each forex broker? i have noticed PA isn't the same and make me confused. thanks
Price action is the same regardless the broker server time.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #3
  • Dec 28, 2013 8:55am Dec 28, 2013 8:55am
Quoting eurusdthb
what is confluence? how do you guy making a decision on it? and what if h4 timeframe doesn't close the same GMT on each forex broker? i have noticed PA isn't the same and make me confused. thanks
I use H4 a lot in my trading and I too was wondering which is the best H4 candle to use. For the daily, it's easy, for true PA you use New York close. I emailed Nial Fuller and his reply was you use New York close whichever timeframe you trade on. So there you go .
  • #4
  • Dec 28, 2013 11:10am Dec 28, 2013 11:10am
Ferru is right...

If you think the start time makes a difference you're not reading price action correctly and you are also thinking that trading is a quantifiable right and wrong...

All you can do is ensure your risk is small and hold your survivors until they are large.

The one constant across all H4 start times is price, nothing else. The price where the down trend ends and becomes an uptrend is the same, the trend is the same, and the price where it eventually turns again will be the same.... If you are trading based on different principles you will lose, maybe not today, but over time.
tradewith60
  • #5
  • Dec 28, 2013 11:21am Dec 28, 2013 11:21am
Confluence are areas where more than one nothing meet, a collection of nothings is for some reason comforting for traders who don't want to accept that over time its a 50/50 game.

Of course once you accept that the only real edge you have is to use R/R then trading becomes a simple repetitive process.

The mechanics of the market don't need fancy indicators or math to understand, just look at a chart zoomed out. Price goes up and down and pauses for a bit. Even when it is pausing it is still going up and down, but not as much....

So you need to wait for the market to go up and go up with it, some ups go on for a long time, if you get some of them then the ups that didnt dont matter anymore... and vice versa...

If you continue to look for a way of only being right all the time you may well have period of being right, but it wont be easy to maintain for years on end, your probability of messing up are increased and the money you make will be very limited.

So in summary, stop looking for reasons to be right and stop looking for guarantees, instead look for ways of leaving trades open for as long as possible... participate with minimum risk...
tradewith60
  • #6
  • Dec 31, 2013 1:02pm Dec 31, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} I use H4 a lot in my trading and I too was wondering which is the best H4 candle to use. For the daily, it's easy, for true PA you use New York close. I emailed Nial Fuller and his reply was you use New York close whichever timeframe you trade on. So there you go .
I quite agree with you on using New York's close.
  • #7
  • Dec 31, 2013 4:11pm Dec 31, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting 60minuteman
Confluence are areas where more than one nothing meet, a collection of nothings is for some reason comforting for traders who don't want to accept that over time its a 50/50 game. Of course once you accept that the only real edge you have is to use R/R then trading becomes a simple repetitive process.

I see you keep repeating this in multiple threads ad nauseam: trading is a 50/50 game.


It's not.


Confluences are juncture points where multiple things come together; traditionally confluences refer to meeting points where multiple streams come together to form a larger river.


In terms of the market, this could be fundamental data, technical indicators, etc. For example, one may say there's a confluence of technical support if a horizontal support line also happened to match a fib and stochs were indicating an oversold market. Supposedly this would indicate strengthened support, because of a confluence of factors. When I see people post about confluence, a lot of the time it's more coincidence; and there's the rub.
  • #8
  • Jan 1, 2014 2:28am Jan 1, 2014 2:28am
I ever saw in two difference brokers open time, one H4 candle closed breaks hard the support but at other broker only a create a long wick hammer candle.

when it is very very important for me in making decisions to close or to open the trade.

GMT +2 is comfortable for me.
  • #9
  • Last Post: Jan 1, 2014 7:55am Jan 1, 2014 7:55am
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} I see you keep repeating this in multiple threads ad nauseam: trading is a 50/50 game. It's not. Confluences are juncture points where multiple things come together; traditionally confluences refer to meeting points where multiple streams come together to form a larger river. In terms of the market, this could be fundamental data, technical indicators, etc. For example, one may say there's a confluence of technical support if a horizontal support line also happened to match a fib and stochs were indicating an oversold market. Supposedly...
I understand where you're coming from, I used to think like that, but you have to ask yourself:

1.how much data are you basing your assumption on?

2.If you took every trader on FF and took the average win rate would do you think it would be? have you ever studied brokers data on this subject?

3.Do you think that assuming your win rate will be 50/50 and then insuring you have a higher RR to account for that is a bad strategy? if you were wrong and won more than half you just make even more money?

Sometimes adopting a mindset that you only have a 50/50 chance of being right makes the process of trading much easier.

Your approach relies on you being right more than youre wrong, what happens to the trader emotionally then when his win rate drops? he may start to doubt his entries and then emotions will effect other parts of his trading also... like closing early or finding reasons to leave valid trades...

So, yes I do include it in my replies to most threads because it is the core I build my trading from and it has proven to be very successful for me.

My results in December:
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