why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 40 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #781
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:21am Dec 31, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yep, vaguely insulting someones method in jest ( Magix ) despite the fact it's a method he originally learned from well me, turned into a hate crime, which is interesting. I don't know exactly when the market will turn, so in order not to miss I prefer 1 order early then a 2nd at the ideal price, so I too average in kinda, although I treat them as seperate trades, just gets over R:R calc issues. Proximus's " since this adds even to my predicting abilities, low spread = high success, doesnt matter how well you predict the market, you have...
If you do not believe the market is random then this begs the question of whether or not you know how often your setups work over a significant sample size?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #782
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:28am Dec 31, 2013 7:28am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} If you do not believe the market is random then this begs the question of whether or not you know how often your setups work over a significant sample size?

M1 so no long term data, been able to go back 9months on 2 pairs, still looks promising, only done random samples though, prefer live tests can't cheat then.

Ranges, might need tweaking depending on market volatility, it should be long term useable I think, but only time will tell.


Method gets me 70-80% there the rest is on well me, the object is to find a objective system which requires as little thought from ME as possible, give someone a complicated system and the system might still be fine, but the user breaks down and stops being able to trade it, so as easy as possible is key in my mind.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #783
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:30am Dec 31, 2013 7:30am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I prefer Should, ie you pretty sure, but never going to be 100% ofcourse as stuff changes we can't see. There all abit, market might go up, or it might go down, but what ever happens I'll claim I got it right for my likings. Magix got a +5 pips on the 1, being really nice as a spike to get that, then another went against him, no SL so he might get to have held through that to claim he'd be in profit soon. Not ideal times to trade, and a sample of 2 isn't enough. If we all shared live trade setups, a) we'd know who to listen to, b) others...
I agree. But before we can do that, we have to agree what it is we are actually doing. I really don't have any setups because I am a millipeder, and one who believes the market is random at the retail level. So far, no one has shown otherwise. My argument is this: If the market was non-random then a trader should be able to eliminate MM. Obviously, no one can, because no one really and truly knows where price is going.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #784
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:38am Dec 31, 2013 7:38am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I agree. But before we can do that, we have to agree what it is we are actually doing. I really don't have any setups because I am a millipeder, and one who believes the market is random at the retail level. So far, no one has shown otherwise. My argument is this: If the market was non-random then a trader should be able to eliminate MM. Obviously, no one can, because no one really and truly knows where price is going.

It's complicated, not random I assure you

It's order based, so nobody can predict the next 10seconds or 5mins, which makes it random to most, zoom out look at the bigger picture, there are repeatable ranges, there are directions and there is repeatable patterns.

You've seen and seem to understand my charts, you can't tell me you can't see some predictablilty in there.


Market is either random 100% of the time, or 0% of the time, nothing inbetween, although I will accept random at times
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #785
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:40am Dec 31, 2013 7:40am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I agree. But before we can do that, we have to agree what it is we are actually doing. I really don't have any setups because I am a millipeder, and one who believes the market is random at the retail level. So far, no one has shown otherwise. My argument is this: If the market was non-random then a trader should be able to eliminate MM. Obviously, no one can, because no one really and truly knows where price is going.

There are random events, which you'll never be able to predict, like someone flying a 747 into a building or other unscheduled news events, which ofcourse effects the market and makes it seem random, but there is a reason for it's move.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #786
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:46am Dec 31, 2013 7:46am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} It's complicated, not random I assure you It's order based, so nobody can predict the next 10seconds or 5mins, which makes it random to most, zoom out look at the bigger picture, there are repeatable ranges, there are directions and there is repeatable patterns. You've seen and seem to understand my charts, you can't tell me you can't see some predictablilty in there. Market is either random 100% of the time, or 0% of the time, nothing inbetween, although I will accept random at times
What I see is wave motion in hindsight, while this gives the market a structure, it does not tell us when the next wave will be or how long it will last. I am not picking on your chart or method....all TA charts do this.

Again, I would argue that if you had even the modicum of certainty about where price could go, MM would not be needed. Just bet the farm, after all you will be right. Right?

The sobering truth is that you do not know if you will be right before you are stopped out. You might be right eventually, but eventually might come too late. This simple idea I would argue makes the market a random enterprise.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #787
  • Dec 31, 2013 8:07am Dec 31, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} There are random events, which you'll never be able to predict, like someone flying a 747 into a building or other unscheduled news events, which of course effects the market and makes it seem random, but there is a reason for it's move.
Turveyd, you're a wild and crazy kind of guy (in a good sense) so I am wondering about your thoughts on what difference one's view of randominity (is that a word?) would have on your way of making money in the forex.

I suspect very little.
- If you make a lot of money on a consistent basis doing something you will tend to do that something more and more, right?
- If you lose a lot of money on a consistent basis doing something you will tend to do that something less and less, right?

So after a while( say 7 years or so ) , since you have survived in this activity at least that long, one would surmise that you find your self doing more and more of the first somethings and less and less of the second somethings.

I think that is a reasonable assumption at first glance, and that makes what you find yourself doing of interest to me, not some metaphysical idea of random reality or such.

I might have a radically different idea on why that works, but If I find myself making money doing things similar to the things you do making money,we shall both profit, to damnation with the theory.

Happy New Year, and may it for you and (especially)me, a profitable one!
  • #788
  • Dec 31, 2013 8:09am Dec 31, 2013 8:09am
Quoting jmn5611
Notice the language used by some predictors taking up Turv's challenge. Lots of use of the words...."might" and "could", some use of the words "should" No one is using the word....WILL. As in price WILL do this or that. The reason is that no one knows what price will do, if they are honest about it.
the market is not random and yet it is (time and something happens). It moves in waves that's the non random part, I am not an Elliot wave theorist but you can see how it works. Yet again look at all the plotting the banks/governments do this is random then natural occurences.
a lot of trades can be wiped out to due randomness (called noise) and using a small stop loss.
it is good to have a plan say where you (should) get 100 pips but if it fails take 20, been there done it, have a good 2014
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #789
  • Dec 31, 2013 8:21am Dec 31, 2013 8:21am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} What I see is wave motion in hindsight, while this gives the market a structure, it does not tell us when the next wave will be or how long it will last. I am not picking on your chart or method....all TA charts do this. Again, I would argue that if you had even the modicum of certainty about where price could go, MM would not be needed. Just bet the farm, after all you will be right. Right? The sobering truth is that you do not know if you will be right before you are stopped out. You might be right eventually, but eventually might come...
Ofcourse not thats a prediction level you will never achieve.

Just got to play the math, let the SL take care of the losers.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #790
  • Dec 31, 2013 8:28am Dec 31, 2013 8:28am
There is no certainty about where price is going. There is probability of where price may go, based on market structure and PA analysis. Information about market structure, and experience from watching PA form (based on your knowledge and awareness of market structure), will reduce much of the appearance of randomness and chaos...but not all of it, because we as retail traders do not have access to all the information being digested by the forex. If your view of the PA is that it defies common sense and reality (is chaotic and random), you have to remember that the forex does not obey the laws and rules of common sense and reality (at least not your reality), but instead obeys the laws and rules of the forex. Several years ago, I gave up all hope of ever understanding the big, complex mathematical equation that makes up the forex, and started focusing on "laws and rules" that govern that equation. The collective use/implementation by the power players in the forex, of the processes used to manage and keep balanced that complex equation, is the thing that drives the charts. I would not place a trade unless and until I could put the trade set up in perspective of what's (likely) going on with the power players.
  • #791
  • Dec 31, 2013 8:42am Dec 31, 2013 8:42am
Quoting GEfx
There is no certainty about where price is going. There is probability of where price may go, based on market structure and PA analysis. Information about market structure, and experience from watching PA form (based on your knowledge and awareness of market structure), will reduce much of the appearance of randomness and chaos...but not all of it, because we as retail traders do not have access to all the information being digested by the forex. If your view of the PA is that it defies common sense and reality (is chaotic and random), you have...
that's it,, when market moves it is due to the big boys moving it so i went with it, sometimes i failed (only temporarily). Last time i traded i remember e/u was up trend from around 10 years ago and when i was barred from e/u analysis a bit of noise was being made when e/u dropped a few pips (hundreds) before climbing up, this is where a lot of people suffered and the room leaders are allowed to preach bs, anyway certainty isn't guaranteed but keep stats and you'll get along. have a good 2014
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #792
  • Dec 31, 2013 9:15am Dec 31, 2013 9:15am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} Turveyd, you're a wild and crazy kind of guy (in a good sense) so I am wondering about your thoughts on what difference one's view of randominity (is that a word?) would have on your way of making money in the forex. I suspect very little. - If you make a lot of money on a consistent basis doing something you will tend to do that something more and more, right? - If you lose a lot of money on a consistent basis doing something you will tend to do that something less and less, right? So after a while( say 7 years or so ) , since you have...

Wild and Crazy gets the job done I find!!

Instinct is still to do the stupid second thing, it is taking a while to get that out of my brain, but yeah in general that's the plan atleast.

Objectivity, doing it in a scientific non random, REAL kinda way, with no BS or pretence, that's the goal.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #793
  • Dec 31, 2013 9:35am Dec 31, 2013 9:35am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I didn't mean you have a go lol, a lot of people have a go at turveyd yet he posts his trades good and bad and tells how he does it . As for your charts I haven't actually looked but having just looked online at u/j but I think something similar to you.. Right now it is 1499 I think it might drop about 20 pips then go north 100, if it doesn't it will be plan B
I know

I'm pretty confident both the EUR pairs I predicted will turn out correct as they are both in areas which where previously untested since price moved away from it -- as for where I expect the market to go (red lines/arrow) -- it is simply the next level up which is untested since the price moved away from it, as for the USDJPY, still waiting for the price to drop first.

No fancy bullsh*t, just simple S/D/S/R.
  • #794
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:08am Dec 31, 2013 10:08am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I prefer Should, ie you pretty sure, but never going to be 100% ofcourse as stuff changes we can't see. There all abit, market might go up, or it might go down, but what ever happens I'll claim I got it right for my likings. Magix got a +5 pips on the 1, being really nice as a spike to get that, then another went against him, no SL so he might get to have held through that to claim he'd be in profit soon.

Go back and look at the charts.

I actually showed 7 out of 8, the 8th one never set when I was going to bed.

That's 87.5% accuracy for entries and exits.

You've showed 0, which means you have a 0% accuracy rate.

Keep talking smack, fool.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #795
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:28am Dec 31, 2013 10:28am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Go back and look at the charts. I actually showed 7 out of 8, the 8th one never set when I was going to bed. That's 87.5% accuracy for entries and exits. You've showed 0, which means you have a 0% accuracy rate. Keep talking smack, fool.

So you took 2 pips of all of them for risking 30 and class those are profits ?? and the EU didn't set ? so we'll just ignore that yeah got it.

Define your SL and we'll work of 1:1 R:R, so with a 30SL you need to make 30TP before the SL hits for it to count as a win.

If you want to define a TP, or manually close a trade with a live chart saying I'm closing here, that's also fine, but if only 15pips for a 30sl then it'll only count as 1/2 a profit, same as closing for -15 would be 1/2 a loss.


Don't just post random charts then after the effect claim that your profitable on 100% of the trades that filled.


Prove it!!

I'll post some up, when I have the time don't worry!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #796
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:35am Dec 31, 2013 10:35am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So you took 2 pips of all of them for risking 30 and class those are profits ?? and the EU didn't set ? so we'll just ignore that yeah got it. Define your SL and we'll work of 1:1 R:R, so with a 30SL you need to make 30TP before the SL hits for it to count as a win. If you want to define a TP, or manually close a trade with a live chart saying I'm closing here, that's also fine, but if only 15pips for a 30sl then it'll only count as 1/2 a profit, same as closing for -15 would be 1/2 a loss. Don't just post random charts then after the effect...

I risked nothing!

They risked NOTHING.

You are still missing the forest through the trees, ACE.

It didn't set, but if you'd take the time and actually look at what I post, you'd realize why. But you don't. You are struggling so hard to prove yourself right and me wrong, that you refuse to look at the actual information.

For somebody who DEMANDED proof, and called out all others, you have failed to show 1 single technical play on those steaming piles of shit, you call charts.

When you have time...BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

How much time have you wasted posting bullshit here, and not 1 single chart? Not 1 single trade????

TROLL.

Quoting Magix
If I was in this week...I'd be a buyer here. If price does bust through, we'd see the retrace, making the chance of loss minimal. Still in the same sideways channel as a single hourly candle. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: retrace.png Size: 30 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #797
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:42am Dec 31, 2013 10:42am
I want a packet of chocolate chip cookies if my two EUR predictions come in.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post7181894
  • #798
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:47am Dec 31, 2013 10:47am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I risked nothing! They risked NOTHING. You are still missing the forest through the trees, ACE. It didn't set, but if you'd take the time and actually look at what I post, you'd realize why. But you don't. You are struggling so hard to prove yourself right and me wrong, that you refuse to look at the actual information. For somebody who DEMANDED proof, and called out all others, you have failed to show 1 single technical play on those steaming piles of shit, you call charts. When you have time...BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA How much time have you wasted...

Ofcourse you don't use SL's that's why you are avoiding that question!

Your charts show no actual logic or trade sense, you might aswell flip a coin, but there is no SL so you'll get to 2 pips profit and bag it sooner or later, while taking huge risks to make 2pips, so no wonder your win rate is so high, but ultimately doomed.


Sorry working and playing games all day, I'll leave you to digging your own hole first!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #799
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:50am Dec 31, 2013 10:50am
Quoting GDR3k
I want a packet of chocolate chip cookies if my two EUR predictions come in. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post7181894

Could you not use, Red's, Green's and Yellow's mate kinda Red Green Colour blind and well bolloxed if i can say which is which, with lines that small!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #800
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:53am Dec 31, 2013 10:53am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Could you not use, Red's, Green's and Yellow's mate kinda Red Green Colour blind and well bolloxed if i can say which is which, with lines that small!!
Ignoring the USDJPY chart as that target level has now been hit.

On the EUR charts basically I predict the market will hit the very top line with the arrow pointing to it before it hits the bottom line which is situated under the swing low.
1 trader viewing now