why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 34 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #661
  • Dec 30, 2013 5:14am Dec 30, 2013 5:14am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I think that particular chart is random.I mean you see a downtrend on M1, which is represented by 3 red sticks on M15, how do you know when they will reverse? Or why should they? Is it probable that after 3 red candle a blue will/must follow? It that a pattern ? You have to question yourself. I personally dont see a pattern in that particular setup, except my U shaped pattern in the middle, but i dont know what triggers that so its irrelevant. Until you know that there is a pattern there, its random and hidden and unpredictable. If it is...

Your still thinking prediction, drop a 9sma onto the M1 chart, look for strength and just jump in and follow along with the strength.

or look for a live area of support, get in near the lows, sl to new low so tight and see if it takes off, but be warned it will likely go up, find resistance then go lower, so your better of shorting that resistance as its with trend.


less prediction, more reaction.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #662
  • Dec 30, 2013 6:13am Dec 30, 2013 6:13am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yes fine, as long as you are pretty sure the trend is up, we are assuming you can't be sure where it'll turn back up as your buying a pull back. Buying more as it goes against you is fine, but when you come to exit if you've got 5 positions all losing then it'll hurt compared to the times you get it right and only have 1 position which worked nicely. You need to make the decision the trend has changed against you, then to look for a place to exit on a pull back of the new trend preferably to reduce the loss. Most importantly, when you make...
I didn't suggest that you should just keep adding on regardless. What I was suggesting is that if your risk management was configured in such a way then it would allow you to add one or maybe two other trades at lower prices should the price pull back further. There is also nothing to stop you adding on should the price goes your way so you don't need to have 5 losers if it goes against you and only 1 in your favour should you win. I agree though that no method is easy.
Shampoo for my real friends
  • #663
  • Dec 30, 2013 6:35am Dec 30, 2013 6:35am
Quoting dannyrose
{quote} I didn't suggest that you should just keep adding on regardless. What I was suggesting is that if your risk management was configured in such a way then it would allow you to add one or maybe two other trades at lower prices should the price pull back further. There is also nothing to stop you adding on should the price goes your way so you don't need to have 5 losers if it goes against you and only 1 in your favour should you win. I agree though that no method is easy.

That's what I do, market is going up, pulls back to a buy point, I take a position, if it dips again but pauses above my exit level then I'll take a 2nd position, stupid not to, it's got a smaller SL and a bigger profit potential.

I have limited myself to only 2 positions, gets abit stupid when 5 fill and all hit SL or I start moving the SL as the loss is too big to take which just makes it bigger.

I've stopped setting up limit orders for the 2nd position to, as sometimes it'll just blast straight through, reducing my losses some what.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #664
  • Dec 30, 2013 7:35am Dec 30, 2013 7:35am
What are you all doing here , during market trading hours ? ....
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #665
  • Dec 30, 2013 8:08am Dec 30, 2013 8:08am
Quoting Vachus
What are you all doing here , during market trading hours ? ....
I, for one, put all my orders in for the day before the Frankfurt open.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #666
  • Dec 30, 2013 8:10am Dec 30, 2013 8:10am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I, for one, put all my orders in for the day before the Frankfurt open.
I'm not judging , but i was under the impression this type of topics are weekend related ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #667
  • Dec 30, 2013 8:15am Dec 30, 2013 8:15am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I'm not judging , but i was under the impression this type of topics are weekend related ...
Trading is like fishing. Most of it is spent doing nothing, waiting for alerts to fire, babysitting your EA, etc. Plenty of time to post unless you are still training.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #668
  • Dec 30, 2013 8:16am Dec 30, 2013 8:16am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Trading is like fishing. Most of it is spent doing nothing, waiting for alerts to fire, babysitting your EA, etc. Plenty of time to post unless you are still training.
I'm still a novice , not anywhere near Alpha or Veta or Ceta dogs by any chance ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #669
  • Dec 30, 2013 8:20am Dec 30, 2013 8:20am
Gotta say that Magix way of looking at the M1 really lets you see s/r. It's a good take away from this thread. Simple, clean, uses only one indicator for a trigger, is price based.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1.png Size: 39 KB
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #670
  • Dec 30, 2013 8:29am Dec 30, 2013 8:29am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I'm not judging , but i was under the impression this type of topics are weekend related ...

Holiday season, weekend is extended until Thursday!

Low volume and jumpy comes to mind, role on next week.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #671
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:40am Dec 30, 2013 9:40am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I definitely see it. But, in keeping with the topic, can we see this on the hard right edge of the chart? Your stoch breaks below 80 which confirms trend resumption after the pullback. So we get in with the current trend, but the trend can end on the next bar, of course. I think what redlion is asking, and Proximus has touched on, how can you truly have confidence in this setup if you don't really know how often it works. That goes for any of us. We might have had a really good month and hit a trend on what is still a random chart...

I can pull out a chart, and show you What assumptions I follow regarding the market, I can talk to you about my assumptions on the current state of the world and give you calculations on running standard deviations or GARCH 1,1 models, then tell you how I calculate cost, roll over rates, currency correlations and how i diversify to maintain a net exposure to x or y currency......however "how can i truly have confidence in this set up if I don't really know how often it works" as jmn5611 brilliantly pointed it out.

what justification do I have about my assumptions, what statistical significance is present and more importantly what predictions can be made and tested? otherwise no matter how impressive you charts and illustrations you are still flipping coins in a random environment as pointed out before.

I can see your supply and demand zone trading magix, hanover pointed out support and resistance to mitigate risk.....what is the probability of this approach working in statistical terms? what predictions can be made and tested? what are the implications?


nubcacke takes a shit and watches for the swirls....can you truly say that his approach is not valid? and if you can what standard do you use to judge a sound method from an unsound method?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #672
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:08am Dec 30, 2013 10:08am
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1388383717


let's explore this chart briefly: at 1.3860 there was a spike, where oders were matched and ate up liquidity upto almost 1.39 price range then an influx of sell orders brougth the equilibrium down to 1.3860 then the next 15 minute candle was formed (this was only significant because we cut the bid/ask movements to encapsulate 15 minutes at 1.3830 is really were orders were quoted at a higher price for the next 30 minutes. Anyway you slice it you can tell 1.3880-1.3900 demand was rejected, as magix correctly observed. Liquidity continued to be eaten up and price continued to seek equilibrium down to 1.3760, then it briefly fell and oscillated 1.3730-1.3760 range ( which magix pointed out and i accept).

here is the question: This is what happened, on the left side of the chart. Can we really confidently assume that in the next couple of hours, or even days orders will be placed in a ressembling manner? why not some one dumping some euros in a big transaction related to some other economic activity in which price would eat through the assumed demand/support area or vice verza?

in my opinion this gives you a way to structure the chart or cut it into segments to be able to observe past action in a more structured way (pardon the redundancy) but does not in anyway tell you what orders are coming down the pipe, the assumption here is that past action = future action, same as smoothing a chart with a SMA. however Time 0 -----------> is still unknown although <----------------Time 0 looks more structured






.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #673
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:10am Dec 30, 2013 10:10am
oi oi Mr Turveyd, hope your good ., hows the scalping doing. I am searching around for an old buddy here on FF and other sites due to stooped me losing his contact details. I like your honest approach to your trading and if we were in the summer months and I wasn't doing anything I might be tempted to scalp myself lol (boredom)
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #674
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:33am Dec 30, 2013 10:33am
Quoting the redlion
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1388383717 let's explore this chart briefly: at 1.3860 there was a spike, where oders were matched and ate up liquidity upto almost 1.39 price range then an influx of sell orders brougth the equilibrium down to 1.3860 then the next 15 minute candle was formed (this was only significant because we cut the bid/ask movements to encapsulate 15 minutes at 1.3830 is really were orders were quoted at a higher price for the next 30 minutes. Anyway you slice it you can tell 1.3880-1.3900...
Without knowing if, or what, news had just hit and when, this is all just pissing in the wind. I'm too lazy to try and match-up that chart with the latest FF calendar. But you talk of price being rejected and whatnot. For all you know price might not have been rejected at all. Can you be sure that price wasn't purposely driven up with buys at the peak and then sold-off plus extra in anticipation of price going south? If that happened then that's not a rejection. That's just moving price to a better location to offload and then reload for the migration to the south for the winter / summer.

You are talking of rejections and equilibrium and yadda yadda, but without more data it's fairly pointless. You have no way to begin getting your bearings on the intentions of the larger volume traders. The bars go up, and down, and will continue to do so. Even with more data it can still be a crapshoot anyway, but at least it paints a better picture.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #675
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:36am Dec 30, 2013 10:36am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Without knowing if, or what, news had just hit and when, this is all just pissing in the wind. I'm too lazy to try and match-up that chart with the latest FF calendar. But you talk of price being rejected and whatnot. For all you know price might not have been rejected at all. Can you be sure that price wasn't purposely driven up with buys at the peak and then sold-off plus extra in anticipation of price going south? If that happened then that's not a rejection. That's just moving price to a better location to offload and then reload for...
You seem to agree with me in a disagreeing tone. .... I'm a bit confused
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #676
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:43am Dec 30, 2013 10:43am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} You seem to agree with me in a disagreeing tone. .... I'm a bit confused
I'm disagreeing with trying to begin making sense of any of the ups and downs without some accompanying reference to the news events that occurred. I'm also disagreeing with the types of language you are using because there isn't enough data to begin to guess at what happened. Some of your words are suggestive of a battle between different monies, and what I'm suggesting is that there's no way to know that what you call a rejection of a price wasn't just the same people who put the price there in the first place simply reversing their direction.

I'm just pissing in the wind because you are pissing in the wind. It's all just speculation, and without more data that's all it can ever be... and that's the problem. Might as well slap some fibs and ganns on there.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #677
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:45am Dec 30, 2013 10:45am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} I'm disagreeing with trying to begin making sense of any of the ups and downs without some accompanying reference to the news events that occurred. I'm also disagreeing with the types of language you are using because there isn't enough data to begin to guess at what happened. Some of your words are suggestive of a battle between different monies, and what I'm suggesting is that there's no way to know that what you call a rejection of a price wasn't just the same people who put the price there in the first place simply reversing their direction....
You are correct to point this out. Thanks for setting me straight.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #678
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:55am Dec 30, 2013 10:55am
Quoting billytt
oi oi Mr Turveyd, hope your good ., hows the scalping doing. I am searching around for an old buddy here on FF and other sites due to stooped me losing his contact details. I like your honest approach to your trading and if we were in the summer months and I wasn't doing anything I might be tempted to scalp myself lol (boredom)

Yo dude, surviving just kinda maybe!!

Tis going okay, isn't technically scalping though, as not a 3 pip merchant, made a little on 2 trades, shoulda stuck around and kept trading but BORED and it's a Monday so went out doh!!

I don't trade August, that's beach time
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #679
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:57am Dec 30, 2013 10:57am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yo dude, surviving just kinda maybe!! Tis going okay, isn't technically scalping though, as not a 3 pip merchant, made a little on 2 trades, shoulda stuck around and kept trading but BORED and it's a Monday so went out doh!! I don't trade August, that's beach time
Take that shit elsewhere, Nell. Time and place. This is neither.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #680
  • Edited Dec 31, 2013 5:32am Dec 30, 2013 11:01am | Edited Dec 31, 2013 5:32am
Quoting the redlion
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1388383717here is the question: This is what happened, on the left side of the chart. Can we really confidently assume that in the next couple of hours, or even days orders will be placed in a ressembling manner? why not some one dumping some euros in a big transaction related to some other economic activity in which price would eat through the assumed demand/support area or vice verza?
Hi red, I am on vacation working off my iPad so I don't have my trading charts with me, but I did trade the E/$ this morning from the lobby of my hotel. Two trades on the move up: one at 1.3773, the second at 1.3758. I just moved my stop to 1.3790, which is really tight but as you can see, this pair is traveling up a nicely formed channel, but is stalling at a key resistance level at 1.3805'ish. To answer your question: yes, you should confidently assumed the move up, as all indications were that PA was squaring up the big move that you noted in your post. The probability of this move is fairly strong, and if it failed to implement the squaring process, I would have suffered a very small loss, which is all part of trading. This squaring up is predictable, and when PA says its underway, you trade it. The signs were pretty clear to take the trade and take the risk. There are loads of other TA to back up the risk, but I won't go into that here.

Edit on 12/31: Set a take profit on both trades at 1.3810, which was hit last night.
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